I love the New modeling Template(4)

[Bill V.]

I just recorded my 1000th race on my Win model, I have slightly less, like 960
place and show horse, This is probably do to FTS's, deadheats ,entrys and
unfortunately a few short fields. Yet like they say in the Del Mar jingle
"There is a smile on every face, and a winner in every race where the surf meets the turf at Del Mar " My win model always has the most races .

Its great to see the percentages of the top rated horse and then the 2nd 3rd and 4th and lots of other percentage calculations.

I only have 1000 races coming from 8600 pacelines
No where near FTL's hundreds and thousands of lines and races,
Yet I still find the template very fun to poke around,
Lets say I have a race with like a 9 year old , with just a few clicks
I can sort the 8600 pace lines and see what percentage of horses 9 years old
or older have won.

Or what is the average Sartin speed rating for all 1000 winners - Its 83.5 by the way,

Playing around with my models from RDSS really helped me pass the time while I was in recovery.


Anyway I thank Ted for this great feature of RDSS
I know Ted puts lots of work and time into this feature
Bless
Bill

[mick]

Bill, I agree with you and I would like to thank Ted, too.

[smitty73]

Ditto that! Thanks Ted...
Smitty73

[Mr.Pagine]

Whatever it is.... thanks Ted.

Jon

[pilot]

Hi , I would like thank everyone for their insight using the model. I am just starting back with RDSS after taking a break from racing. My question is when I am adding races to my model, how do I move the stats lower so I can add more models. I hope that makes sense.

Thank

Wayne

[pilot]

I was able to highlight the ratings, from the far left row with a number in it. Then right click on insert and that moved them down quite a bit. I was adding to model from yesterday and I have 2 new races from today but the count is still the same. What am I doing wrong.

Thanks

Wayne

[DaveEdwards]

Hi Wayne,

I have taken a look at the spreadsheet and if I'm reading your issue correctly it should be easy to overcome.

It all depends where you insert the lines on whether or not the formula at the bottom of the sheet automatically amend themselves to take account of the extra lines.

If you go into Q25 you will see the following formula
=COUNTIF(Q3:Q20,"=3") / Q22 * 100

Now if you insert the additional lines right at the bottom, presuming you've filled 20 lines and don't want to alter anything you'd click over the number 21 and on the left hand side and drag down a few lines thereby highlighting a few lines across the sheet. The next step would be to right click and insert lines. The problem is that by doing it right at the bottom, you are beyond the range of the formula, that is from rows 3 to 20. Excel assumes you are doing something different now.


The solution is to start with a new blank template. Go to the number 5 for instance on the LHS, hold down the left button and drag down a few numbers. Now right click again to insert rows.


As this has been done in the middle of the range used for the COUNTIF process Excel automatically updates the formula in the cells below.


Summary if you don't care about the details, get a blank template and add extra lines, but always be sure that it is within the range currently specified. In this case 3 and 20. Once you've set up this new version, just copy and paste your data into the new one and you should be good to go.

[Ted Craven]

I think Dave has it right. In short, insert your new lines at the bottom, not at the top, yet still above the Stats section. That retains the beginning of the cell range starting at the original top-most row and extends/modifies the end of the range to the new bottom-most row created by the insertion of the rows being inserted from the export file. Then your COUNT and all other columns based on knowing the COUNT stays up to date with newly added rows of data.



Ted

[Bill Lyster]

Or you could add them anywhere in the middle of the data and resort by any way you chose, date, race number, distance, sex, surface, etc.

But be advised, the further the breakdown of data, the fewer data points in each set, so you might have a months worth of data at SA, for example, but only have 4 or 5 six furlong races for 4+ yo fillies and mares.

So far at SA the best factors over all races on dirt are V/dc and Final Odds - with both being in the low to hi 80% range for the top 4 choices. No other single factor over ALL races comes close.

On turf these two factors over all distances and sexes still lead but with slightly less percentages for the top four.

The most predictable races are at 7 furlongs where several factors limit the winner to the top two in those categories.

When I get back from Australia I will post my SA findings since opening day. You will see how few races in each category have a representative number of races.

Until then,

Bill

[pilot]

Thank you Dave and Ted, I am placing my new race above the stats and it still not add it to it.

[pilot]

I moved the stats down lower.

[Ted Craven]

That works too. When you get close to the Stats block, with a few blanks left, just INSERT your new rows from the export file into the next blank row above the stats block and all the range details and counts and Hit% Stats will be maintained.


Ted

[pilot]

Thank you, I think I will start fresh since I only have a handful of races. I do not think the program liked it when I moved the stats down about 8 lines.

Wayne

[Bill Lyster]

First just a few 7f races from SA:

Note that V/dc and BL/BL dominate at SA. (I only showed columns with significant top 4 percentages.) Several columns only have ones and twos. There can be ties represented here, but usually two horses fill these spots



47650

Then quite a few more from GP:

Note how final odds and CSR dominate for this distance at GP (it can be different for other distances!) Top choice at 7f wins 50% of the time for the period of this model; 67% top two; 89% top three, etc.

47651

This is why I said 7 furlong races using best of last 3 comparable was, so far, the most dependable model.

Get winnin'

[pilot]

Thank you Bill, looks very good.

Wayne

[Bill Lyster]

Just a note for the GP info. The two horses with all "9" ratings were first time starters. I manually added the "9" ranks in order to get all races in the stats below the list of races. Note too, that both FTS horses were top 3 final odds.

[Mitch44]

Proves that Sartin's guidelines for picking pace lines, best of last 3 comparable,is still viable today.


Good work Bill.


Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Okay, I have finished the model for GP races for 6f, 7f and 8f only on the dirt through yesterday. All races included. if first time starters won, I added the rank of "9" to various columns that otherwise would have shown "0".

If you want a copy that includes win and place info, PM me and include your email address because the file is too large to send over this website. I should have SA data completed by the weekend if interested. In the files already compiled I have hidden columns that did not rank the horse's performance, so, if you want to see the range of %med, or TS, or any other number, highlite the missing columns and just allow those columns to "show", and then you can see all the data. I have already sorted the data by class, but not sex or age.

Let me know what you would like.