Winning With Early-Huge Hillside Turf Score

[Neil S.]

I had been doing a lot of reviews of races won by Need To Lead types and found that FTL guidelines contenders that were both a NTL as well as the best EPR were worth wagering on if they went off at prices of 4-1 or better. Today in the finale at Santa Anita which was a hillside turf sprint I found a race which produced only 3 contenders with one of them fitting the criteria of this type of NTL runner. Here were my lines as well as well as the reasons for eliminating the other runners:

1. Princess Princess 10-1 -Last line which was a good third down the hill in a Graded event.
2. Miss Southern Miss 6-1 - Last Line which was a deep close win down the hill
3& 4 Scratched
5. Samba 5-2 - No line first race in the US
6. Anita Partner 20-1. No line due to odds
7. Gliding By 8-1- No line as no recent race at this distance
8. Malibu Stacy 15-1 - No line as no recent turf sprints
9. Scratched
10. Algorythmic. 6-1 - No line; hasn't raced since July
11. Mongolian Shopper 12-1- Last line which is a wire to wire score down the hill. A quick look shows consecutive wire to wire hill wins as well as 2 other such NTL wire wins.

Here are ranks for the 3 contenders:

1. 179.5. (2)
2. 180.5 (1)
11. 178.5 (3) NTL with best EPR

Normally I would key my top 2 here as both were 4-1 but I opted to key my top horse as well as the NTL betting 3 dollars on both to win and making 2 dollar exactas with my top picks over the contenders for a total investment of 14 dollars. The 11 dueled early for the lead with Malibu Stacy but just when I thought all was lost she shook clear passing the dirt crossing and drew off while the 1 rallied up the rail to complete the exacta. A 3 dollar win bet on a $48.20 mutuel coupled with the $400.60 exacta completed a nifty net profit of $458.90. I had managed only two modest winners prior to this and this was my last play of the day, so needless to say this was quite a wonderful way to end things.
Honestly the winner became glaring only because I used the FTL guidelines and eliminated most of the horses leaving me with only 3 contenders. Two horse bettors and exacta players could have easily gotten this result as the field was narrowed and the favorites were all eliminations.
I continue to be patient but as these results continue to pop up my resolve only strengthens. My win percentage is very low compared to most other players, but the ROI on my successful wagers has more than compensated me both psychologically and money wise.
Once again kudos for FTL for enabling me to see races differently and to profit from all of his years of hard work and research.

Neil

[sureshotlink]

Santa Anita
R10
$5.00
Exacta Box Box
1,2,11
$30.00
$0.00
$1,001.50
Resolved

I have been using FTL guidelines for the last six months. As mechanical and simple as it may seem you would be surprised how many longer priced horses it gets with out looking for that needle in the haystack or going way back in the time machine looking for a pace line.

Paul link
Los Angeles, CA

[Neil S.]

Excellent that someone else other than me was able to capitalize on this spot. Good job!!

[dlivery]

Im also a advocate to F T L plus and minus description of is this the line

Will only be a short time this will be come a natural for all of us to earn as we learn.

Good skill going forward

[lone speed]

Congratulations to both of you!!! Job well done.

Staying consistent in your methodology is key. It is the R.O.I that matters most. One can have a high win percentage but a low ROI...It would be like spinning wheels...

Depending on one's winning percentage and average priced mutuels; It might be best to only to wager on horses with odds that are higher than 3-1 or 7/2... This might be difficult during these times with computerized betting outfits and working at smaller racetracks....

Great work.....

[Neil S.]

I bet in advance using the ML odds to determine my value. Sometimes the horses get bet down or low odds runners drift up but I've noticed that over time this seems to even out. I think all of us felt we were doing something wrong if we didn't achieve the high percentages we have been reading about. I find that I can go for periods with nothing really happening and then all of a sudden there is an eruption. However I feel that staying consistent is more important and the money will come in time if one avoids the zigging and zagging.

[sureshotlink]

Likewise!

FLT guidelines also get you the winner of the 9th at Santa Anita at 7-1

Once you have the true contenders in the race let the tote board be your guide.


Paul

[Bill V.]

I decided to make all my bets today using FTL's Guidelines
and record my bets after each race

The good news is I did real well betting races from

Tampa, GP, AQU, SA, GG, and Mike Sal's match up race at very wet OP

The bad news is although I worked race 10 from SA down the hill
I was exhausted, and had a murderous headache so I passed race 10 :(

45547



I will post my report soon
Bless
Bill

[Mitch44]

Not to be a contrarian here but after the fact we can all find a reason to have bet or have a longshot. Winners are easy after the fact and hindsight is always 100%.Also even as a contender most wouldn't bet a horse at those odds.


What I can honestly say is that the way I choose contenders this horse comes up ranked # 3 after scratches. BTW LT1 also would have had this one as a contender also. Would I have had or played it? In all honesty I can't say nor can any other unless you played it. The proof is in the pudding, its what is baked in before the taste test that counts not after the fact.

How else could this horse be gotten after the fact: if you love repeaters this horse won its last two races, won last two over the SA downhill course, improved from turf and consistent with 5 for 9 win & place(4 wins), 3 different jocks in last 3 races but if you play jocks and love Steward Elliot he's up today and your a big winner (I'm sure some lady played that and another probably liked its silks, Handily workout since last & within 9 days, only 1 point below the SR par for the race etc. etc.
Would a, should a & could a, isn't gone to put any $$ in your pocket.


From a phy. point if you believe in it then it may very well help you in the future if you make the bet.


Best of luck Bill in your quest. Handicapping is drudgery and even I attempt to streamline it through research. Its still a work in progress.
Mitch44

[Neil S.]

There are many methodologists whose paceline and contender selection process gets them far more winners than I do. But the beauty of the FTL guidelines is that for the first time in the many years I've used the Methodology I have landed on a solid and consistent strategy. Yes it goes through down periods but the upsides thus far have been incredible. As for posting results after the fact I can see your point, however as I have already stated I don't have any control over when a score is coming so to provide readers with 8 losing scenarios wouldn't be beneficial to anyone whereas pointing out certain situations where a particular situation was profitable can be informative.

[RichieP]

Awesome hit Neil and Paul!! Take down the cash :D:D

[Neil S.]

Hope all is well with you and your family!

[The Pook]

Another nice job Neil. The best I would have done in that race was a win bet on #1. Might have bet place at those odds but I wasn’t there.

Pook

[Neil S.]

I didn't protect myself as far as #1 focusing mainly on the NTL. I was fortunate as the #1 would have typically been my second key.

[Bill Lyster]

I got back from Spring Training with just enough time to cap the 8th and 9th.

Race 8 had 4 E's that were either E7 or E8 and one EP7, one EP4 and 2 sustained types. Bar Scene, the 1 was best E, so all the others got eliminated. I kept the 6 and 7 who happened to press in the tandem with Bar Scene.

The 7 at 7/1 won, wearing down the exhausted E's, but I could not get a bet down. This race was won courtesy of one of the first posts made by FTL - look at the mix of contenders. The only Sustained horse to run vs today's pace was the 7. My intended bet was to box the 1 x 7. Only a paper bet at the time, but confirmation of the lesson.

On to the 9th. Same contenders as Neil. Same result - $5 win and $2 box exacta for a $500+ score.

Agreed that choosing races to bet using FTL guidelines limits the number of races at any particular track, but with so many venues, you can pick and choose 8-10 races almost any day that fit the guidelines and minimum odds requirements.

[Neil S.]

I'm happy that none of us bet enough to affect the odds. I'm very pleased to see several people get this result.

[shoeless]

Great hit, FTL'S work has helped me as well

[sureshotlink]

Lets get the day started by following FLT guidelines:

First race GP

Bet Type
Selections
Bet Total
Refund
Payout
Status
Today at 9:05 AM
Online Gaming
Gulfstream Park
R1
$5.00
Win
1,7
$10.00
$0.00
$43.50
Resolved
Today at 9:05 AM
Online Gaming
Gulfstream Park
R1
$15.00
Place
7
$15.00
$0.00
$48.00
Resolved
Today at 9:05 AM
Online Gaming
Gulfstream Park
R1
$5.00
Exacta Box Box
1,7,9
$30.00
$0.00
$185.00
Resolved
Today at 9:05 AM
Online Gaming
Gulfstream Park
R1
$5.00
Exacta Box Box
1,2,7
$30.00
$0.00
$185.00
Resolved
Today at 9:05 AM
Online Gaming
Gulfstream Park
R1
$20.00
Win
1,7
$40.00
$0.00
$174.00
Resolved
Today at 9:04 AM
Online Gaming
Gulfstream Park
R1
$25.00
Win
1,7
$50.00
$0.00
$217.50
Resolved

[Neil S.]

I'm curious as to why you made multiple win and exacta wagers over and over again instead of just one entire bet.

[lostandwon]

Encode; Retrieve; Execute

Easier said than done

Great hits!!!

[sureshotlink]

I'm curious as to why you made multiple win and exacta wagers over and over again instead of just one entire bet.

Stems from my OCD

[sureshotlink]

Awesome hit Neil and Paul!! Take down the cash :D:D


Hello Richie,

Thanks man,

Appreciate you for your contributions to this forum teaching the Hat's match-up
concept( not easy to teach nor put into practice)

Paul

[dlivery]

There are many methodologists whose paceline and contender selection process gets them far more winners than I do. But the beauty of the FTL guidelines is that for the first time in the many years I've used the Methodology I have landed on a solid and consistent strategy. Yes it goes through down periods but the upsides thus far have been incredible. As for posting results after the fact I can see your point, however as I have already stated I don't have any control over when a score is coming so to provide readers with 8 losing scenarios wouldn't be beneficial to anyone whereas pointing out certain situations where a particular situation was profitable can be informative.

Yes and Yes and Yes
As long as we know the dry spell will only dry up and again begin to be profitable we will only wait and see

[shoeless]

Neil

Was wondering if you use RDSS for your TPR numbers

Doesn't matter to me if you post races after they have run you
can learn just as well that way

[Neil S.]

No. I do the Phase I numbers by hand and have been doing so for many years. I also am able to calculate the EPR and LPR ratings as well by hand. I make a special adjustment to the the final times of the hill races which I developed over the years to bring them into line with the TPR's at the other distances. I'm very proficient at doing the numbers and can do an entire race card in about 15-20 minutes.

[Mitch44]

Sartin always said; " If you lose 3 races in a row , you need to stop and reevaluate your procedure." Long run outs aren't conductive to profits.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

I believe we can learn more from losing races then when we win one. Most of us,including me, rarely if ever review why we won a race. We just take the money and run. When we lose, especially multiple races in a row, now we are forced to evaluate our approach to correct what we are doing wrong. Nothing like losing real money to make you get your act together. I like to know if losing multi races in a row was because the winner was not contained in the contender mix or was it simply ones choices of the horses to bet. In the first instances then maybe the guidelines should be put aside and one of the other approaches such as the matchup or best of the last 3 comparable dist,surface etc, should be employed. In the 2nd well we all make wrong betting decisions from time to time such as hiding low odds horses who are legit or as I do moving horses up or down the tier levels base on non Sartin factors. Either way it's up to each of us to get things right and we can with hard work and record keeping.
Tim

[Neil S.]

In my own statistics I see that my top rated horse consistently wins at a much higher rate than my other contenders. The second choice does win a decent percentage as well, but when betting it with my top choice cuts into my profit potential. Although my 3rd and 4th choices average higher mutuels they have a tendency for long run outs. I am willing to wait for situations when my top choice is 4-1 or higher and go concentrate on these races. Because of this I go longer periods without winning actual money although the race was won by a short priced runner or the occasional longshot comes in that wasn't ranked highly. I would say that my FTL contenders win at about a 65 percent rate with my top two accounting for more than 75 percent of these winners. I like the consistency and stability of the guidelines and the potential of big exact a and trifecta payouts using my top choice enables me to withstand longer drought periods than others.

[Mitch44]

Your post # 10 " so to provide readers with 8 losing scenarios wouldn't be beneficial to anyone" indicates some run outs. With that independent study by Bill Lister of FTL the contenders were only in the top 4 65% which makes it impossible to achieve a win rate of 65%.Best of luck with it through and I wish you future success..


Mitch44

[Neil S.]

I don't have a win rate of 65 percent and never have. All of my FTL contenders account for 65 percent of all winners but obviously I don't catch each one of these.

[fastcharlie55]

Santa Anita
R10
$5.00
Exacta Box Box
1,2,11
$30.00
$0.00
$1,001.50
Resolved

I have been using FTL guidelines for the last six months. As mechanical and simple as it may seem you would be surprised how many longer priced horses it gets with out looking for that needle in the haystack or going way back in the time machine looking for a pace line.

Paul link
Los Angeles, CA
I have been using FTL for about 2 months now and find it works very well I like the fact it provides consistency and is measurable. There are fewer plays, but the payoff is excellent.
Patience is required.

[Lt1]

Neil your % for the top 4 are in line with what I get over the long haul. Your top 2 % is fantastic. I myself get the winner 55% from my top 2 and 73% from my top 3 and 81% in my top 4. I use the best of the last 3 approach which is what I learned when I joined the group in 1990. Also after talking with various teaching members and hearing time after time that if you accept a horse as a contender you must give it every chance to win which may or may not be the last line. It appears that if one applies whatever approach the Doc taught one can win consistently if directions are followed. Keep up the great work
Tim

[Neil S.]

Your contender success rate is far above mine but the increased success of my top TPR since I started using the FTL guidelines makes it very profitable to key my top runner as opposed to making win bets on 2 horses. I have never been consistently successful as a two horse win better but now am experiencing am amazing run keying my top horse and now will also be looking at the NTL runners which are top EPR and at good odds

[shoeless]

Neil

Great job