My day at the races - Using FTL's Guidelines

[Bill V.]

Saturday, Feb 24th 2018

Introduction

The basics of this test.

I have been studying FTL's post for many years.
I slowly have been adding more pieces of information to my pace line and contender selection process. During my recovery, while I was in the hospital
and home unable to do much else. I found my ability to pick pace lines
and contenders was almost gone.

Since I wanted to work races, but could not get the strength or stay alert,
I began to do races based on using the automatic paceline selection method
Best perceptor of last three comparable races
I did well, I modeled many races. I was on fully automatic when using RDSS
Once the lines were auto-selected by RDSS. I just went to the RX screen and bet the top two rated RX 3 horses This turned out to be a very solid method for working races.

I began to do many tests, using these methods. They worked well.
in fact very well - ON PAPER - that is just downloading all the cards every day and then recording the results from the result chart or just sending the files to an excel spreadsheet, The data in my models said that fully automatic would show a positive ROI.

Eventually, my strength and alertness have returned. I found I could do maybe two or 3 races a day like I always had using Phase 1.
but If I did those races I could do no more.

I need to work races to get extra money because my medical bills are crazy and I can no longer work. I am on disability.

I decided the only true test is to actually bet the races that I was recording
the data from. The number of races I could work slowly grew. I could do 5 then 10 then maybe 15. Yet there was no way I could do every race on every card every day.

This is the great illusion of making databases from result charts.
When we do we catch EVERY WINNER we catch those $50 plus horses
from racetracks we have never heard of, let alone play, We catch winners from races on off tracks, We catch winners in races that were taken off the turf.
We catch winners in races that have 1/5 horses that don't fire but look
ON PAPER like there is no way they can lose. We never get tired or have things going on in our life that disallows us to be at the right place at the right time.
I am sure you all know the feeling of working a card and losing the races we handicap. Then we get called away, Then when we return we see that the next few races on the same card had double-digit winners but we were unable to bet them.

And lastly, we can't bet every race from multiple tracks because tracks don't
take turns. Very often many tracks have races going on at the exact same time. How many times have we all been here, Track A gets all nice prices
but we are betting track B which is getting all chalk.

Knowing that reality is the best way to judge our skills, I decided to do
many tests for win and excatas. These tests were done live. I was just using the best of last 3 perceptor and betting the top 2 RX horse for win and top 4
for exactas.

My results were disasters in reality. I lost money almost every day.
What happened ?, Life happened.

So now we come to this day Saturday, Feb 24th. I decided that I would
have to go back to picking my lines myself and bet races for this test
live only No more blindly betting on automatic,

I believe that using FTL's guidelines is a very reliable method,
for me, It is almost like being on automatic, Each horse in every race, every card every day either meets the guidelines or they don't
This makes contenders limited to only horses that fit, If a horse does not
fit they do not win at a very high percentage so they are not serious win contenders
So big fields are easily narrowed down to maybe 5 horses, Often just 2, 3 or 4 horses and sometimes only 1 horse.

Now I thought just betting the top 2 RX3 horses of the FTL contender might be an option.
This is what I did on this day Saturday, Feb 24th I looked at races as they came up, The races I tested were from Tampa, Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Santa
Anita, Golden Gate and one race from Oaklawn where it was sloppy,
All the other tracks I tested races from were fast except Aqueduct which started out fast but then was listed as good, I ended up betting one race
which eventually became sloppy,

I did not cherry-pick these races I worked each race from the simulcast center at Del Mar as they came up.
I did not set out to do this It just evolved. I bet the first few races as i usually do with a cash voucher, Once I win enough I cash out and use my winnings to buy lunch and save some cash for gas and admission for my return trips. So the early races I don't have winning tickets saved.
After these first few races success, I thought It would be a good test to share
here on Pace and Cap . After the Tampa and AQU race 1's I did the rest on my online betting account. Where I have all my bets all documented.

So let's get started The first races that came up was Tampa and
Aqueduct race 1

Before I get started I will show you race 10 from SA.
This was my last bet after a long tiring day.
Like I wrote about life happens, I let the emotions of making mistakes in entering my bets and being totally exhausted effect my ability.
I ended up passing the biggest winner of the day

Here is race 10 from Santa Anita. A race I passed

[Bill V.]

This is race 10 from Santa Anita. This was my last race of the day, I was very tired.
Actually I sould have staopped about 3 race sooner than race 10 from Santa Anita. I was very tired and had a headache. I wanted to complete the day,


The race was a 6.5 down the hill race.There was a heavy bet Baffert horse. Who knows how Baffert does on the turf? This also is a horse off over 275 days. The horse never ran in North America coming from Argentina.

I passed the race and look what happened :( the 11 wins at 23/1.
I only had three horse that fit FTL's guidelines the 11 1 and 2

The only positive is I passed and did not lose anything.

45548

That was a tough way to wrap up a nice day

Now the good news :)

[Bill V.]

The day started out with a nice winner
The 6 pays 10.60 I used a $20 voucher here at Delmar to get some hot food money.

Contenders were 6,1 and 5

I bet $ 6 on the # 6 and $10 on the #1 The #1 was the low odds so I split my $16 bet 60/40


45549

[Bill V.]

That was a nice start.

AQU I let my winnings roll here
I used 7-furlong lines here.
My contenders that fit FTL's guidelines

Horses 6,1 and 3

I bet $6 to win on the 1 and $10 to win on the 6

I cashed out the voucher :)


45550

[Bill V.]

I sent messages to Ted telling him what I was up to
I had great feeling things would go well today so I decided to bet the rest of the test using my online account

My contenders were 5, 6, 2

I split my bet 60/40 between the 6 and 5
the 5 wins and the 6 makes the exacta

45551

45552

[Bill V.]

Things are going really well in New York

I stayed with AQU for race 3
It was a wide open stakes race $100,000 Franklin Square
I just watched, Good thing, The 5 wins. It was a win contender but rated poorly on RX3
It hurt cause it is rated 2nd on TPR but that is not the issue No Bet
Contenders 4,6,3,2,5

45553

[Bill V.]

Race 4 OP sloppy

I did not bet because of the off track
But I enjoy working these races Mike and other put up
The 10 rates 2nd the 3 makes the exacta but no bet

Contenders were 3,10, 5 , 9, 2


45554

[Bill V.]

I only had two contenders
Horse # 2 and # 8

For horse 8 I used a 7.5 turf line
I was not sure to bet my full share of my $16 bank for this race
Because I used a horse with a 7.5 paceline
Instead, I bet both the 2 and 8
In an exacta 2, 8 / 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
This bet cost me $8
In hindsight, the 8 would have been nice to win at $21
I gladly took the exacta $67.60

45555

45556

[Bill V.]

I put In my bet for AQU race 5 with lots of positive vibes
And it worked out really well.

Contender 5,6.3 4
The 6 wins as I up my bet to $11 each
The 5 places I think I will start to bet some exactas

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45558



Time for lunch I got the hot food special
Meatloaf, Scallop Potatoes and Veggies
I had to drink water because of my restricted diet.


I watched race 5 from GP as I ate lunch

[Bill V.]

In race 6 at GP I was ready to roll again.

Race 6 was a stakes race at 5 furlongs on the turf
Things did not pan out.

Contender 2.6,7,3
Again I upped my bet. I bet the #2 and the #6 $16 each total $32
But horse #1 won off a 260-day layoff


45559

45560

[Bill V.]

Aqua race 6 was another tough loss,
After losing race 6 at GP I cut my bet back down to my base which is $16
I split my bet $8 win on the # 1 and #3

The 5 won the race

45561

[Bill V.]

Next up was the 7th at GP

I'm sorry I passed, I wanted to focus on the top 2 RX and the 10 was way too short priced. After lots of hesitation, I got shut out
The 6 wins at a nice $23 price and is an FTL contender along with the 10 and 11

45563

[Bill V.]

Next up was Race 8 from AQU. As soon as I put in my bets I saw the track now was soaked and sloppy. This would be my last bet at AQU today

contenders 5 10 9 2 1

Unfortunately, I missed this one. I bet the 5 and the 10 at $10 each.
The # 2 horse who was an FTL contender and ranked 4th won

45564

45565

[Bill V.]

Welcome to the hotel California

Santa Anita Race 1 and 2

Santa Anita Race 1 is an MSW on the turf.
I would not make win bets in race 1

I figured I would bet my FTL contenders from race 1 with my top 3 FTL contenders in race 2 for an $18 double
The double came in but only paid $14 :(

45569

45570

[Bill V.]

Race 9 worked out real nice. And with some luck i made a nice hit.
I am having trouble with the betting format on my online account.
I wanted to split my bet $10 win on horse # 9 and $6 to win on #3.
But I entered the bet wrong and ended up betting $10 on both the 3 and 9
along with the other $6 on the #3 so I ended up betting $10 on horse 9 and $16 on horse 3
Lucky me the 3 wins the race :)

CONTENDERS ONLY #3 AND #9

45571


45572

[Bill V.]

SA race 2 comes up next. I need the 2, 5, or 6 for the daily double with the Race 1 winner in hand.

I also bet the # 2 and # 5 to win at $11 each
The 5 wins but does not pay much I get the win and the daily double

Contender 5,4 2,1

45574


45573



I passed race 10 at GP

[Bill V.]

Race 3 from SA.

I only had 1 horse that fit FTL's guidelines That was horse #3

I did alright. However looking back I bet too much on horses in the winning spot in exacta's and
doubles when I had them marked as non-win contenders.

I bet $8 to Win on the 3
I bet a 5,6,7/3 Exacta
I bet a 3 5 7 / 4 Double

The 3 placed so I got a $29 exacta but I bet a total of $26 into the race

45576

45575

[Bill V.]

Race 4 SA

Race 4 from SA is the kind of race that, when using FTL's guidelines
make final decisions very easy.
In race 4 I bet the top two horses that fit the guidelines horse #4 and horse #6

Because race 5 was a MC 30 race with 2 FTS and horses with less than 3 pacelines. I would have passed it for win bets I bet a 4/45 daily double

The #4 horse wins down the hill at a nice price, $12.40
I got the win and eventually the daily double in race 5

45577

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[Bill V.]

GP race 11

Race 11 turned out to be a push as horse #6 gets bet down. I
bet the 6 and 12 $8 each. The 6 gets bet down from an 8/1 morning line to go off at even money :mad: It was too late to change my bet.
Another example of the fallacy of testing from result charts.

Contenders 6,12, 10,11


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45580

[Bill V.]

"If your going to San Francisco be sure to wear some flowers in your hair"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7I0vkKy504U


Now that Gulfstream was over I moved over to do a race from Golden Gate.
I bet the top two RX horses, horse #1 and horse # 6
The 1 wins the race but did not pay enough as the #6 gets bet down and messes up my 60/40 spit.

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[Bill V.]

Santa Anita Race 7
I split my $16 bet $8 each on the #1 and the #6.
I lost to an FTL contender #5 but I bet the 3 and 5 over 1, 2 5, 8, 10 on a
cash voucher

Race 8 is a maiden race with lots of FTS so I would not be making win bets
It's nice to get some more cash in the pocket.
The 5 /10 double pace $32 .60 so I make a $12 profit

45584

45583

45585
I passed race 8 at SA

[Bill V.]

I went over to GG for race 8

Here is my RX screen. I Should have seen I was losing focus.:confused:
I did not bet the winner horse #1 yet the 1 wins at a solid price
For some reason – Exhaustion? I bet the 2 and 6 :( :(

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45586

[Bill V.]

Another example that should have told me it was time to go home. :mad:

SA. Race 9
I wanted to bet the 7 and the 9 but now I knew for sure I was done, mentally and physically. I did not bet the 7 and the 9 :confused: I just bet the 7 twice



The 6 wins as a FTL contender and probably a strong match up win candidate

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[Bill V.]

As I posted Race 10 from SA was a tough one to watch

I did really well for the day.
I will total things up after breakfast

All in all, I am very impressed with how FTL's guideline did

see you in a few

Bless

Bill

[RichieP]

Hi Bill!

This is just an awesome workup on a great day at the races for you! I know you are hanging tough and Blessings are drawn to you constantly :)

I know its a ways out but as we get closer to Saratoga let me know if you are going to make the trip, I'd love to see you again!!!! We'll get the Binderator going again!!! lol

Love and hugs,
Richie

[Mitch44]

Nice work Bill & congrats. Thanks for the screenshots, something my browser won't let me do.


Mitch44

[The Pook]

Bill, thanks for your day. You are good. Stay well.

Pook

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations Bill! You have more energy while recovering from open heart surgery and dialysis than I do most days in full health :eek:

Your application of FTL's contender guidelines is very interesting ...!

Keep up the good work (and thanks for helping me test the tote stuff - it's getting closer ...)

Ted

[Lt1]

Nice going Bill. Hoping to see you at the Spa again this yr.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Thank you for the kind words

It was a LONG day but it was very rewarding
to make this report and take a nice profit

I will be testing and using the guidelines for many more races I will be glad to repor some more cycles

Bless
Bill

45593

[shoeless]

Bill

Great job and thanks for the workup on the races

Jeff

[sureshotlink]

Good Job Bill!!!

Now the only thing left is to be highly selective with the races you choose to invest in.

Keep it going,

Continued Success!

Paul link
Los Angeles, CA

[DaveEdwards]

Great work Bill. I enjoyed reading that.

May I ask, did you do this in conjunction with any track profile & %M data or was it purely done with the FTL guidelines and RDSS readouts?

[shoeless]

Bill

You have helped me quite a bit and will always appreciate it thanks

Jeff

[gandalf380]

I think you underestimate yourself Bill. Your ROI is really 31% not 24%

[Neil S.]

Great job and a good way to regain your mental focus and strength. Nothing like analyzing a race and picking lines to stimulate the brain. I played AQU, GP, SA and OP on the same day and did not bet nearly as many of the races you did. As a matter of fact there were only 11 plays over the 4 tracks in entirety with the finale being the gigantic score that many people were able to capitalize on. I find that using Phase I I get a larger percentage of my winners in the #1 spot although many of these winners are short priced, so I have to pass many of these races until I get the ML odds minimum of 4-1 before I will go in. I also prefer to key the horse rather than box as the lower ranked horses are very inconsistent and although they produce some nice mutuels every now and then are often prone to longer than normal run out periods. The only exceptions are the NTL types that are also the top EPR ranked horse. I have only recently started betting these as well if the odds were right and the finale at SA was the first time I actually scored with this type of horse after seeing several winners during my paper analysis.
I'm very happy to see you slowly but surely gaining your strength and I hope that you can happily marry your playing style with many of the concepts that FTL has written about. I believe that in time we will all be able to attain a happy median between the traditional Sartin concepts and many time tested concepts that FTL has put forward.

Neil

[Bill V.]

Hi Neil

Thank you for the nice note. I had another nice day yesterday,
I am doing really well win betting. I should let the other bets rest for now.

Yesterday race 11 seems to be a nice example for you.
The payout was nice for me. It was awkward to root for the 7
around the gang, I hang out with at Del Mar
Everybody got knocked out of the pick 4 when the long shot #7 went wire to wire.

45602

PP's Horse 7 =NTL E8

45605


TPR # 7 is the #1 EPR

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RX3 Screen

45603

[Neil S.]

I know the race you're referring to. I played poker on Sunday but reviewed the races whej i got home where there was a double digit winner. There were 3 contenders with Roses being #3 But he was both a NTL and top EPR. Nice 25.00 mutuel.

[Bill V.]

Hi Neil

Yes, going back to the race, I only get 2 contenders
:5: and :7: Who did I miss as the 3rd contender? thanks
Bill

Horse 1 Mrs. Ramona G. 4/1 ML S1
Line 1 is a plus + race 46 days ago
Here at GP but on the dirt.

Horse 2 Treasure for Gold 3.5/1 ML S5
She only has 1 line, Her maiden win
But it was 238 days ago

Horse 3. March X Press 1.2/1 ML S1
This is the morning line favorite She has not run in 113 days
She shows 2 plus races sprinting on the turf at Saratoga
One of these + races was in a $100,000 stakes race but she was 2 years old.

Horse 4 Crazy for Sofia 10/1 ML EP2
Line 1 is a plus (+) race 50 days ago,
The 7.5 distance at GP with the long run up and
moveable rails is closer to a route than a sprint.
Her next + race sprinting on the turf was line 3


Horse 5. Picara 5/1 ML P3
Line 1 is excused for being on the dirt track
Line 2 is a + plus race here at GP, same distance surface

Horse 6 Cosita Rica 20/1 ML EP3
No line, besides the 20/1 morning line.
She shows no + races sprinting

Horse 7 Roses Of The South 12/1 E8 NTL
Line 1 is a (+) race Line 2 is a + race.
Both qualify, They are both from GP
same distance and surface
RDSS picked line 1 so I used that one

[Neil S.]

I gave Crazy for Sophia line 2 which is a (+) race. I had asked FTL if he counted moves where the horse gains to within 2 lengths at the second call but is not 1st 2nd or 3rd. He said that he gives this line a (+) and I've been doing this ever since.

[Bill V.]

Hi Neil

I saw that, I see what you are seeing. The only thing that makes me wonder about line 2 -since it is not a (+) race is I am wary of horses who figure to be trailing at the EP point of the race, but have a sub 80 LPR

I would love to read what FTL thinks about this horse


Thanks
Bill

45606

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. I would have no problem using line 2 since the horse beat half the field and was up close at every call which several teaching members including Tom B, Col Bruce Jorgeson and Vic Palermo accepted. I've been accepting lines like this for my contenders[barring a better one to use] since I heard it at the 93 Vegas seminar. Get some nice priced winners doing it.
Tim

[Neil S.]

I periodically was seeing horses making moves within 2 lengths of the lead at the second call but not in the top 3 and i private messaged him about it. He said he considered this a (+) race. Thats why i have been using these lines since then along with some other adjustments I made after he answered a few other questions regarding the lines I had been using as opposed to what he recommended

[Bill V.]

Thanks Neil


I do the same thing, FTL knows I have my own adjustments
but they are minor. For instance I am a little more forgiving
of a bad line 1 or two if they are on different tracks or surfaces or distance as long as line 3 is within 189 days - Doc's guidline
This helps me but when it does not, I have learned not to cry and blow gaskets
The more we try to add our own spices to the recipe the greater the a chance we will get a cake instead of the bread
Sometimes these horses cloud what would have been a easy bet.

Its all in the decision

Good Skill
Bill

[Bill V.]

Here is the thing

I hope you know the true me, from our days last summer sitting together at
Saratoga, that I certainly do not mean any disrespect.

Tom B, Col Bruce Jorgeson and Vic Palermo were at that 93 seminar,
I was not but I have heard the audio of many of the seminars as well as
the video seminar. In all the seminars several teachers speak. From what I have heard, and read and heard right from Doc's mouth is. "you will hear about several different methods during this seminar, some of these presenters will present there own methods, They work for them The fact that they I may or may not agree with for my own or other teaching members methods is not important . What is important is that they have proven to me they are consistent winners using their methods."

i believe if FTL also was at that 93 seminar as a teaching member
and maybe he was ? Nobody knows who FTL really is .
If he made his presentation of his guidelines. If you believed in his presentation just like you believe in beating half the field is a valid guideline
would you use line 2? or make the 4 a non win contender ?

I added line 2 for horse 4 Sofia
It makes her a contender but what reason would I have to go to the third rated horse ?

This is another topic I hope FTL will address

Bless

Bill

45607

[Neil S.]

Although I may win fewer races than many others the guidelines eliminate what I consider noise in the selection process. Even though there were 3 contenders instead of 2 with the addition of this horse FTL tells you to look at the mix of contenders and you can clearly see a significant early advantage possessed by the eventual winner which at his price would certainly make him an inviting win bet at minimum.

[Lt1]

Hey Bill you know I respect you and any opinion you put forth. At that seminar the Doc was there and as you know he didn't really allow his teaching members to stray to far from what he wanted. In this case since he allowed them that latitude I believe that he didn't disagree with that approach. I rate this line as a (+) based on what I heard there and private conversations later on. Again it's not strict adherence to guidelines but guidelines can and should be flexible otherwise they become rules. By using this approach I open the contender selection a little bit but this doesn't mean that this horse or any other would stand further evaluation. Just mine way of looking at things based on my experience.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Bill no disrespect but that is a hell of a stretch. FTL may have attended that seminar but I seriously doubt he was on any panel or was a teaching member, The "Doc" had stick guidelines of 63% to be a teaching member and even then they may not be accepted especially to be on the panel.
Having been born yesterday and not last night I'm not believing that one at all.

In 1993 Sartin was using the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and had been since at least 1990. He was forward looking and had long abandoned what was in his circa 1985 pace line manual. No FTL was nowhere near this panel.



BTW I would have had the 4 as a contender also & used L 2, its more in line with todays pace scenario, in line 1 he rated to get the distance & stretch out.


Mitch44

[For The Lead]

Hi Neil

I saw that, I see what you are seeing. The only thing that makes me wonder about line 2 -since it is not a (+) race is I am wary of horses who figure to be trailing at the EP point of the race, but have a sub 80 LPR

I would love to read what FTL thinks about this horse


Thanks
Bill

45606

Hi Bill,

I took this from page 1 of “Picking Contenders and Pacelines” in the compilation made by Bill L .

c - last line the horse made up lengths between first call and second call to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call (a “(+)” race) even if it faded in the stretch and is the same distance, surface

The horse in question made up a half length during the second fraction and came within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. Although narrowly, the horse qualifies for a “(+)” race. As noted, how the horse finished the race from the second call doesn’t matter.

On a personal note, here is a horse that in its' first 5 races (as a maiden) displayed early form. Since breaking its' maiden it is no longer running as an early horse.( I dismiss its' last race as the distance of that race was 7.5f ) I would not expect the horse to show early form in today's race.

[atkinsrr]

Hey Bill V. see you are up and at em....hope the health is improving for you....wishing you the best...Randy A.

[For The Lead]

Here is the thing

I hope you know the true me, from our days last summer sitting together at
Saratoga, that I certainly do not mean any disrespect.

Tom B, Col Bruce Jorgeson and Vic Palermo were at that 93 seminar,
I was not but I have heard the audio of many of the seminars as well as
the video seminar. In all the seminars several teachers speak. From what I have heard, and read and heard right from Doc's mouth is. "you will hear about several different methods during this seminar, some of these presenters will present there own methods, They work for them The fact that they I may or may not agree with for my own or other teaching members methods is not important . What is important is that they have proven to me they are consistent winners using their methods."

i believe if FTL also was at that 93 seminar as a teaching member
and maybe he was ? Nobody knows who FTL really is .
If he made his presentation of his guidelines. If you believed in his presentation just like you believe in beating half the field is a valid guideline
would you use line 2? or make the 4 a non win contender ?

I added line 2 for horse 4 Sofia
It makes her a contender but what reason would I have to go to the third rated horse ?

This is another topic I hope FTL will address

Bless

Bill

45607

Ah, the decision making process. Always a tough one.

Although I never attempted to teach decision making, there were times when I just naturally gave my opinion on certain races since the race offered such a good learning experience. Here is one such race. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9406 The thread is titled “Horses Don’t Run In A Straight Line”. EVERYONE should read it.

This race offers one way of making a decision. The decision has nothing to do with BL/BL, Rx3, VDC or any one of a number of other things. The “decision” in this case, is made on the basis of horse racing knowledge and handicapping. And, unless you can find another race just like it, don’t bother trying to make this particular decision in some other race. Decisions are sometimes “unique”.

Let me move on to RDSS. The whole concept of RDSS is to provide the user with information. Each user is free to employ any of the information provided in any way they see fit.
In the races I reviewed I marked certain things in RDSS that I believed pointed to the winner. I did that as a means of helping RDSS users with their decision making. And even within RDSS, there are many different things that could be used in the decision making process.

As an example, using the race at GP, once you added the #4 horse off of line 2, that horse became third choice “IF” one was using Rx3. However, for those using BL/BL the #4 horse would become the #1 choice. Personally, I would not be looking at either of those things. I would be more inclined to look at the “RS” column. In that column the #7 horse stands out head and shoulders above the rest of the field as an early horse. Of course this would lead me to other areas of RDSS that would help support that finding. And these are just a few of the possibilities. So you can see how it can become confusing.

Although I never advocated one decision making process over another, I think it is clear to anyone reading my writings that I favor early horses, therefore, my decision making is based on that fact and is always based on handicapping rather than rankings that put horses in some kind of final order.

The decision process is up to the individual handicapper and the methods they employ in making decisions. As an example, not everyone uses RDSS, so they would be employing some other means for their decisions.
It is fairly clear to me that NEIL S, who uses basic TPR numbers, has determined what his decision making process should be and has been successful with it. That is what each person needs to do. Find a decision making process that works for them. Whatever your decision making process is, be consistent with it.

[Bill V.]

Thanks, FTL and Neil and Tim

I fetched the result chart for the Dec 20 GP race

It's more clear to me to understand that line 2 is a (+)
and fits the "usable" line FTL writes about.


FTL As far as readouts and decision making I mostly use
the sticks on the TPR Early - Late screen
I have been a fan of the RX screen since Oct of 2017
The reasons is It goes a few steps farther than BLBL
Sure there are many readouts on RDSS and some get horse rated in better or worse positions.
In this race at GP on Sunday I am glad I went with the RX screen
I got the winner right on top , I am more inclined to use the number 1 ranked horse on RX than BLBL because it takes more factors into account
BLBL horse # 1 has over the years in my records proven to be less successful than the second-ranked horse, My third-ranked BLBL horse is the best value position.

But RX is more in line, In my 1700 race study since Oct 17th
My RX 3 horse ranked first wins 30 % including ties
VDC gets the winner #1 30% but this includes many more ties
BL/BL only gets the winner #1 26%

45608

[Mitch44]

I agree with FTL on the decision making process. I do not accept rankings blindly and analyze each contender and the context of the race for final decisions. This at times causes me to demote some horses and elevate others.


We learn through experience the importance of NTL horses that won't get the lead, fine points of % Med, counter energy etc. and along the way things proven through record keeping . Yes some of it is outside of Sartin. Sartin himself freelanced because he saw the value and incorporated it such as DRF speed rating plus variant to name just one.


Even with all that money management is important etc. Its a gestalt of many variables and each race is different.


In the race above to me the 4 was a contender and I would have used L 2 however I saw in Bill's snapshot that the 7 won which was the #1 contender with what I use for contenders. I can not honestly say which two horses I would have bet before the race was run.


Once again contenders and pace line selection prove their importance. They'll put you in the game but final decisions must be made before the start and that is a whole different process than after a race.


Best of luck,
Mitch44