Parx race 8 3/5/18

[Bill V.]

This one looks like a good potential for a price

The # 9 is the ML favorite. The is a well rated 226 day layoff horse
There are a couple of 20/1 horses. There are 3 early horses.
The distance is 7 furlongs

The conditions and entries

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[Bill V.]

1,2,3,4,5

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[Bill V.]

6,8,9
Horse 7 is scratched

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[Bill V.]

SEGS TPR RX3

My first bet will be horse 3
I will wait to see how they are betting the dreaded 4 horse :eek:
I might go easy if the 4 gets bet



Segs

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TPR

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RX3

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[Rverge]

3 opens @ 3/2

[Rverge]

6 @6/1 9 @5/1

[Rverge]

goin w/ the 9 Bill v 5/2-#3

[Lt1]

My contenders are 3496
I'll pass low odds on 3 &4 6&9 up in class odds not good enough for me. Good luck.
Tim

[Rverge]

goin w/ the 9 Bill v 5/2-#3

WHOAAAAAA NELLEY! to close to call!

[Rverge]

the public bet the 9 down. 4-1 loading in the gate and went off at 3-1. played TUP today and the 8 was 5-1 with no time went off at 2-1.

[Bill V.]

Nice work Chef

Archie Bell and the Drells from Houston Texas
would be very proud,,
Remember they dance just a good as they walk.

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[Lt1]

Nice call Rverge. Wanted better odds on the 9 then 3-1.
Tim

[Rverge]

Nice work Chef

Archie Bell and the Drells from Houston Texas
would be very proud,,
Remember they dance just a good as they walk.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wro3bqi4Eb8

[Rverge]

Nice call Rverge. Wanted better odds on the 9 then 3-1.
Tim

yes 9 was 4-1 going in the gate then dropped

[Rverge]

and this one for just listening
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5j2Z00CmIW0

[Bill V.]

Hello FTL

I wanted to use the last line for horse 6.
Line 1 was on a sly track. I notice something too.
The condition's of line 1 confused me.


The race originally was a 89 Race class but is reported as a 92 today
This tells me the race turned out to rate higher than "par"
The purse was 39,000 but regular AL N1X races at Parx have a $46.000
purse.

But the conditions seem like a race put together to just to fill.

Here are the conditions of the Feb 24th race

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Here is the winner . I used the F notation for Need The Lead horses
The winner horse 8 is a NTL
The result charts say it did go wire to wire.
The segs screen said the #8 would not get the lead in the Feb 24th race
but it predicted the #8 would make a bid move in turn time.

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[For The Lead]

Hello FTL

I wanted to use the last line for horse 6.
Line 1 was on a sly track. I notice something too.
The condition's of line 1 confused me.


The race originally was a 89 Race class but is reported as a 92 today
This tells me the race turned out to rate higher than "par"
The purse was 39,000 but regular AL N1X races at Parx have a $46.000
purse.

But the conditions seem like a race put together to just to fill.

Here are the conditions of the Feb 24th race

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Here is the winner . I used the F notation for Need The Lead horses
The winner horse 8 is a NTL
The result charts say it did go wire to wire.
The segs screen said the #8 would not get the lead in the Feb 24th race
but it predicted the #8 would make a bid move in turn time.

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Hi Bill,

If the conditions of line 1 on the #6 horse were confusing to you, I hope you went back and look at the previous race conditions ahead of time. They are quite different. I don’t think either race was thrown together as a filler race. I have seen the previous race condition before. It is normal for state bred allowance. I’m not sure why the race was first a RC 89 and then changed to 92 and I won’t speculate.

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As far as the last line is concerned, now that I have seen the horse that won that race, it’s no wonder, to me, that the #6 wasn’t able to get the lead that day. Going long or short, the winner that day wants the lead.
If you take both horses that ran on the 24th and cross off the route races and grass races, then look at what is left, which horse do you think is going to make the lead?
Did you notice the two horses with PEN lines were the two slowest first fraction horses?
And did you notice the same two horses had the best second fraction?

The last 3 races for the #6 have been on tracks other than fast, but -9 (last race) or -4 (2 back) aren’t a big deal.

[Mitch44]

Nice pick Rverge. BIG CONGRATS!!!!



Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Before we get to analyzing what the SEGMENTs screen indicates, I think it is necessary to take a closer look at running styles. Once you know where the horse will usually be at the 1F things can take on a clearer look as the race progresses.

The 6 has not taken the lead in its last 4 races and only once in a sprint at 7F, and that in a very slow time where it probably inherited the lead. Both FTL and The Hat cautioned in their own individual ways about horses who suddenly find themselves on the lead or horses who have only taken the lead once. I would mark this horse as a presser, since it has made up position and/or lengths in 3 of its last 4 races. Another possible indicator of positioning relative to the field is that this horse get E-3 speed points, whereas the 9 is an E-8.

This race was run on a sloppy track and this horses best work has been done on off tracks (6-1-1-0) vs (18-1-3-3 overall) and their appears to be no reason not to take line 1. I used line 2 here to show that it really did not matter that much vs the 9.

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The 9 is classic early. In most races its position behind leader when not on the lead and its distance behind leader never gets better. If you look at lines 1-2-3-8-9-10 you can also see a hint of pressing ability which you might use if the pace scenario was close. This horse could also be an E/P should the occasion arise.
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In 4 of its last 5 races this horse was comfortably off the lead, only inheriting it last out in 23.3. Again, this horse is a Presser.
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Here is the SEGMENTS screen, showing one E and the rest of the pressing contenders. Note that TE advantage of the 9 and the pressing horses being 4.7, 6.1, and 2.3 off the lead at the second call. The 9 has the best 1F and 2F, while the 3 and 6 look to be actually losing position. If either of these two horses are actually early horses, their race is OVER!

The two with the 2nd best 2F looks to be the only gainer among the three.


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[Bill V.]

In the race just run at Parx Race 2 on 3/6/18
I had 1 NTL horse .Horse 1

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The segs screen says the 1 will not get the lead
And that the horse who will has a better 2nd fraction than the 1

The winner of this race was the #2 Paying $9.80 :)

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[Bill Lyster]

Bill,
I thought the 1 and 2 were pretty equal.

The use of the wf line for 1 was correct in that its fast track and off track records were about the same % wise.
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Line 2 for the 2 I thought was a little too generous, especially with a -41 variant. Note that line 1 and 3 are 79-80 adjusted SR.
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My contenders looked like this:
With the 2 edging out the 1 midway. Didn't quite run that way but they finished 1-2, so my #2 bet prevailed in the double. Yeah!
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