Parx Race #8 3/6/18

[Bill V.]

Race 8 Open 10,000 Claimer 4 +

Nice big field with a morning line favorite at 3/1

I will update with track condition and scratches


45734


Here are my notes inside each PP.

Good Skill
Bill

[Bill V.]

1,2,3,4,5

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45739

[Bill V.]

6,7,8,9,10

45740

45741

45742

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45744

[Bill V.]

Segs. TPR RX


I will wait for scratches and then make my selections with screen shots

Good Skill

Bill

[raceman5]

Love the way you're doing your races now with the side notes, a great teaching tool. Here is a question for you and the group in general about the DTV. At what number or numbers will you not take a DTV line.

Bob

[Jeebs]

Hi Bill,

One thing I've noticed is when I use 100% DTV at tracks such as Parx, it brings those extremely aberrant DTV's much closer to the horse's "normal" numbers. The "half" variant, coupled with a tight DTV range, definitely over adjust those extremes. The 100% DTV plus a looser DTV range (you can change it to say +100/-100 in the Config file, the sliders stop at +50/-50) definitely smooth things out. I know that Doc advocated the use of the half variant and had his reasons, but this works for me, and helps me avoid the pitfall of possibly not having a usable line if the next line down is simply not comparable.

In previous discussions with "For The Lead" he does not worry about extreme DTV's, as the program that he uses takes care of the adjustments satisfactorily. If I'm not mistaken, he uses Trackmaster data as well.

As often gets hammered home around here, consistency in methodology/application thereof is important. If people swear by the 50% DTV and tighter DTV ranges universally and they make money selecting lines that are far less skewed, keep doing it.

I'll post my thoughts on this race shortly.

-Tim

[Jeebs]

My visual ESP analysis of the race:

E - 8
E/P - 3
P - 1-5-6-7
S - 2-4-9-10

Beginning with #8, who looks to be the controlling speed. He has paired his last two TE lines, and comes back off a 66 day rest, so today is this one's first race of the new form cycle. The #3 wheels right back (7 days) off the claim, double jumping from the $5's to the $10. He figures to be the primary pressure in this match-up, IF he can stick with #8 early on. However, his early velocity (1Fr, EP) vs the #8 suggests that he won't be able to keep up, though he is capable of laying off a few lengths behind the speed. That said, I'm expecting the #3 to either be going after #8, or in the next flight with 1-5-6-7. I don't see enough pressure in this race to favor the late runners (2-4-9-10) for the Win.

Lines:
#8 - Line 2. The last was the race that put the horse in the barn. I also don't envision a 44 and change half, so Line 2 makes sense.
#3 - Line 4. Yes, it's an old line, but the horse is in solid form. Since I don't see this one sticking with the speed, I expect that one to be a few lengths behind, which should give him the garden spot. That line gives it its best chance at winning.
#1 - Line 3. Another one jumping up off the claim and in decent form.
#5 - Line 1. 2nd off the layoff. Horse has been dropping like a fly down the claiming ladder.
#6 - Line 2. Looks a little slower than the others. Non-contender.
#7 - Line 2. Tough call for me, as this one isn't always forwardly placed. However, its TE has trended in the wrong direction and will need to do better here. Non-contender.
#2 - Line 4. Non-contender.
#4 - Line 1. Wet-fast track last out, and came up just short. Will need a strong effort to run down the top flight in here, since the pace doesn't look too pressured.
#9 - Line 2. Non-contender.
#10 - Line 1. Non-contender.

[Mitch44]

A -56 variant is definitely not normal with the average track around 17. It really is saying its fast 73. All I can say is the track must have been frozen that day. The speed rating for that race and class is also extremely high for that race with a 100, Bris gives it an 86. That line is definitely a throw out.


Sometimes you just know when a variant is not normal. Here is what I do now. I go to the 3rd panel , the one with BLBL and click on the original screen after confirming all pace lines. On this screen I can view the variants for all the horses that are selected or contenders. I then put them in context with the other horses. For example Sat. at GP I had two horses with a 19 and the others all had minuses such as -5,-2 etc. I thought the 19 was extreme verses the others . I then went to see if I could get another line for those two,which I couldn't so I left it. Had I been able to get another line I would have went with it.


I usually don't download for one race and use what's up or other stuff. But this # 8 appears to be a NTL. I would be interested to see what its % Med is from the PP's Energy screen for its races and what it sticks look like on the TPR screen.


As Bill said it could effect the pace or it may not from the layoff. To me this horse is a non-contender.


Mitch44

[Lt1]

Today there are several horses where the program picks lines with a 56 variant. I myself won't use that line but look for another. You see this a lot at MVR also. Tim brings out a good point what if this line is the only line that can be used. I have found that in cases like that most times the horse isn't a contender anyway. Most true contenders generally have multiple lines that can be rated and normally don't adversely effect the horses'tier level. I'm always skeptical of a horse who tiers high off a line I won't use and then drops way down the tier ranks with any other line. I see this when the program selected line is from an off track or lifetime best race and I change it to another line.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Hi Mitch

Here is horse 8

With the Energy screen and TRP screens for all his races

45750
45751

[Rverge]

#10 scr

[Mitch44]

Thanks much Bill.

# 8 I think he chases speed and it compromises him. I'm not sure he can get the lead even if sound and 100% in form with this group. And if he does or keeps up the extra 1/2 F will do him in.This extra furlong is a killer for this horse. Too much deceleration from what I can tell.

Non contender, toss.



Mitch44

[Mitch44]

7-4-5


Mitch44

[Bill V.]

here is mt RX3 screen

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I am alive to the 1, 4 5 6

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[Mitch44]

A tough one (8th race), went for a price with 7-4 as it was a very difficult race.
Mitch44

[Bill V.]

I missed this one

The 3 wins at a solid price $7.80

The 6 places at a nice price

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