BL/BL Values

[Bill V.]

I got this private message after today's Parx race

Hi Bill,

You confused me. You said you missed the winner of your race today. I'm just curious as to why. I thought you were using Rx3 to guide you with your betting. The #3 ranked 2nd on Rx3.

I'm not trying to be a pain in the ass. I'm just following along with you and trying to understand.

Something I found interesting is that the #3 has the slowest speed rating in the race, but ranked 2nd on Rx3.

Hello
Its no problem. I am glad you asked. it is easier for me to explain here than on a message.

Here is my RX screen for the race. If you will notice, The winner horse #3
only has a rating of 4 on BL/BL .

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Back when we only had BL/BL and VDC , betting a horse ranked with only a single digit and no supporting good readouts was not a high percentage winning bet.

Here is the BLBL screen from race 8.

Horse 3 not only is last in BLBL of my contenders
It would be last even with the non contenders

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I try to bet contending horses with BLBL values over 10
on the RX screen.

I spread out with 4 of the horses for my double but the 3 won this time.

So now how often do horses with less than a value of 10 win ?

I have two spreadsheets going. Spreadsheet 1 is my best of last 3
spreadsheet. 98% of which was created from the RDSS auto pace line selection option best of last 3 while I was sick.

There are 1700 races in that speadsheet.

I have filtered out all races except for races at Parx
and there are no maiden races .

This knocked the number of winners down to 170
In 170 race horses with a value less than 10 won 56 times
The winner had a value on BLBL over 10 114 times.

On my second spreadsheet ,
I am using FTL's guidelines . I have no maiden races .
I only record races I bet, So this spreadsheet has far fewer
races , only 67

In 67 races the winner had a value under 10 only 9 times - including today's 8th race :(

In 67 races the winner had a BLBL over 10, 58 times

I missed one today when the 3 horse won but the percentages are small
when this happens.

Here is a chart from my FTL spreadsheet
about which values of BLBL are winning the most.

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[Jeebs]

Bill,

Are you still using Val4 mode or Default?

[Bill V.]

Bill,

Are you still using Val4 mode or Default?


Hi Tim

Here is what I use

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[Jeebs]

Got it. I know you stuck with the old Val4 calculations forever and ever. Have you noticed any discernible difference in how it rates the horses as the different modes do calculate the beaten length values differently?

[Bill V.]

Got it. I know you stuck with the old Val4 calculations forever and ever. Have you noticed any discernible difference in how it rates the horses as the different modes do calculate the beaten length values differently?

Hi Tim

No, I have not noticed, But I don't really compare things.
I just use what ever setting and just stick with it.

It's true I stuck with the Val 4 mode for many years.

When I came home from the hospital and for about a month before that,
I was reduced to simply recordings races and entering the data into
my spreadsheet, I was sending reports to Ted but not betting,
Since Ted uses the same settings as I was, Our records matched.
and Ted did not have to invest the time in gathering the data .

Once I began to bet again I never though to change the settings.
Like I said If there is any difference, I never noticed it.

When using FTL's guidelines and being way more selective in my
races. I really don't think the difference is important.
Because of the low percentages of winners overall,
I ignore for win, horses changing distance structure , That is sprint to route and route too sprint
And surface switches turf to dirt and dirt to turf.
Now I am looking at comparable plus or plus within a zero pace lines only
So beaten length calculations are less important.


I use the tote readouts -All RDSS users will have this ability again soon.
to help me evaluate secondary contenders for my exacta bets

Thanks
Bill