Jim's 5 Step Approach in Action

[RichieP]

Date- Sunday May 14th
Track- Belmont Park
Race - 8th race
Distance - 9 Furlongs on Belmont's Inner Turf course
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The following is Jim's analysis and complete breakdown of the race.

First I am going to post screen shots of all the horse's past performances. When I get them all posted then I will post Jim's analysis and breakdown of the race.

Very cool Jim!

[RichieP]

I just got a big boost from Ted who was able to put all the horse's past performances on a PDF file for us. Saves me a ton of work and also makes it real easy to scroll right down the line as we follow Jim's analysis.

Thanx Ted:)

Please note as Jim does that the numbers 11-12-13-14 are scratched.

Here is the PDF of the race's past performances.

[RichieP]

Here is Jim's analysis and step by step approach to this race.

Please NO questions about software and this race in this area ok? Jim is not into software of ANY kind and relies and teaches strictly based on past performances from the Racing Form.

I would appreciate it if we all can respect his wishes ok? Thank you :)

Here is Jim's 5 Step Approach in Action!

Thanx Hat!

[Jonathan Steele]

Beautiful! Thanks Jim!! You too Richie and Ted!

Best regards,

Jon

[shoeless]

Thanks Jim great job also Richie and Ted as well.Jeff

[THE HAT]

Thanks to both Ritchie and Ted. Beautiful guys. Double thanks to Ritchie.
He reviewed the Five Step Approach. Everyone owes him a huge Thanks.

Jim

[RichieP]

Here is Jim's analysis and step by step approach to this race.

Please NO questions about software and this race in this area ok? Jim is not into software of ANY kind and relies and teaches strictly based on past performances from the Racing Form.

I would appreciate it if we all can respect his wishes ok? Thank you :)

Here is Jim's 5 Step Approach in Action!

Thanx Hat!

Here is the Result chart of the race


Belmont Park - Sunday, May 14th, 2006
Conditions: 1 1/8 MILES (Inner Turf) STAKES. Kingston H.. INNER TURF A HANDICAP FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. By subscription of $100 each, which should accompany the nomination; A supplemental nomination fee of $1,000 may be made by Friday, May 5; $500 to pass the entry box; $500 to start, with $100,000 added. All entrants will be required to pay entry and starting fees. The added money and all fees to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifthand 2% divided equally among remaining finishers. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the Main Track. Closed Saturday, April 29, 2006 with 31 Nominations.
Purse: $100,000 Value of Race: $114,100 1st $68,460 2nd $22,820 3rd $11,410 4th $5,705 5th $3,423 6th $381 7th $381 8th $381 9th $381 10th $381 11th $377 Mutuel Pool: $574,255 Exacta Pool: $416,125 Trifecta Pool: $369,940 Grand Slam Pool: $17,480


# Horse A/S M/E Wgt PP St 1/4 1/2 3/4 Str Fin Jockey Odds
8 Dave 5 G L 116 9 5 81/2 8hd 82 31/2 11 Castellano Javier 5.00
1A Golden Commander 6 G L 118 8 9 91 7hd 71/2 1hd 21 1/2 Prado Edgar S. *2.45
2 Pa Pa Da 5 G L b 117 1 10 11 11 11 61/2 31/2 Arroyo, Jr. Norberto 10.90
7 Foreverness 7 G L b 119 7 4 61/2 61 1/2 6hd 4hd 41 Coa Eibar 2.95
9 Chestertown Slew 4 C L 115 10 3 31 1/2 31 31/2 2hd 5no Migliore Richard 9.00
10 Certifiably Crazy 6 G L b 120 11 8 4hd 5hd 51/2 51 1/2 62 1/4 Velasquez Cornelio H. 5.90
3 Irving's Doers 5 G L 116 2 11 103 101 1/2 101 8hd 74 1/4 Smith Mike E. 26.25
6 Retribution 4 G L b 116 6 2 21 1hd 21/2 71 82 Gomez Garrett K. 15.50
5 No Parole 7 G L b 115 5 7 51/2 41/2 41/2 94 1/2 91 3/4 Luzzi Michael J. 28.50
4 Charimount 4 C L 114 4 6 71 1/2 95 91/2 11 106 1/2 Fragoso Pablo 69.50
1 Unnerving 5 G L 113 3 1 11/2 21 1/2 1hd 10hd 11 Jara Fernando *2.45
Off Time: 4:45 Start: 11 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Good Weather: Cloudy 61o
Fractions: :233, :472, 1:113, 1:363, 1:49 (:23.72, :47.50, 1:11.79, 1:36.73, 1:49.13)


# Horse Win Place Show
8 Dave 12.00 5.40 4.30
1A Golden Commander 4.20 2.90
2 Pa Pa Da 6.60
Pedigree: 8 - Dave, Bay Gelding, 5, by Ends Well - Commadore's Gold by Commadore C.


Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Exacta $46.20 8-1 $416,125
$2 Trifecta $255.00 8-1-2 $369,940
$2 Grand Slam $129.00 1/5/8-1/4/5-1/2/4-8 (4 Correct) $17,480

[shoeless]

I forgot to mention a BIG THANKS to Gary who if it wasnt for him The Hat wouldnt have been here in the first place.Also he is no slouch when it comes to The Match Up as well.Jeff

[admin]

Thanks you everyone

I very happy that we are all here working together
You guys are what makes this site.

[cprescigno]

Everyone, Richie, Jim

Sorry to be a ball breaker but I'm going through this 5 step document a line at a time and found a couple of corrections necessary.
The first is here.

There are quite a few Tandems in the race. You may mark them all, but I will mark the main Tandems, which are:

1. FOREVERNESS - Today’s distance at Aqueduct
2. RETRIBUTIO - One Mile at Aqueduct
3. CHILLY ROO - One Mile at Aqueduct
4. DAVE - Today’s Distance at Saratoga

THERE IS NO HORSE CHILLY ROO IN THIS RACE

The paceline for Retribution, four lines back in the PDF with the PP's I have the following times.
47 110.3 135.2 147.4
I don't see the 23.2 time on the PP that is in the 5 step document. Where did that come from?

I'm not trying to nit pick but like I said, I am really going through this and some of the errors had me confused for a while. That's really not a hard thing to do.

I was more confused when I looked at the orignial pacelines in VAL3 and then in Spec and even though they use the same trackmaster data file the original pacelines didn't agree with each other for 1st Call, 2nd Call and Final.
I'll post that one up on another section of the site.

Charlie

[cprescigno]

Jim, Richie,

Maybe I'm missing something. I probably am. In the Match Up action doc.

Irving’s Doers - Slow
No Parole - Came from the Chilly Roo Tandem, but there are better Sustained horses in the race.
Chestertown - Shows little in his last two turf tries and is to slow to win today.
Dynergy - Dirt races are slower than today’s pace. Look at the Wellgiven Tandem for confirmation.

I can't find a Chilly Roo Tandem or a Wellgiven Tandem. Where am I not looking?

Charlie

[Ted Craven]

The 'Chilly Roo' tandem is 28Apr06 4AQU (won by Chilly Rooster, not in today's race), but Dave, No Parole, Retribution return today.

The 'Wellgiven' Tandem was 25Jan06 8AQU (won by Wellgiven) with Charimount and Dynergy (who was scratched today).

The PDF version of the race I originally created for display here did not show the 'company' line which makes it much easier to spot Tandems. I didn't appreciate that that would be an integral part of Jim's steps (though now I remember all those old seminar tutorials!). Here is a link to the race again, scratching Dynergy and this time showing the 'company' lines for easier identification of the Tandems www.ArtofPace.com/races/BEL0514-8.pdf (http://www.ArtofPace.com/races/BEL0514-8.pdf).

Ted

[RichieP]

Everyone, Richie, Jim

Sorry to be a ball breaker but I'm going through this 5 step document a line at a time and found a couple of corrections necessary.
The first is here.

There are quite a few Tandems in the race. You may mark them all, but I will mark the main Tandems, which are:

1. FOREVERNESS - Today’s distance at Aqueduct
2. RETRIBUTIO - One Mile at Aqueduct
3. CHILLY ROO - One Mile at Aqueduct
4. DAVE - Today’s Distance at Saratoga

THERE IS NO HORSE CHILLY ROO IN THIS RACE

The paceline for Retribution, four lines back in the PDF with the PP's I have the following times.
47 110.3 135.2 147.4
I don't see the 23.2 time on the PP that is in the 5 step document. Where did that come from?

I'm not trying to nit pick but like I said, I am really going through this and some of the errors had me confused for a while. That's really not a hard thing to do.

I was more confused when I looked at the orignial pacelines in VAL3 and then in Spec and even though they use the same trackmaster data file the original pacelines didn't agree with each other for 1st Call, 2nd Call and Final.
I'll post that one up on another section of the site.

Charlie

Hi Charlie,

ok about seeing a 23.2 first quarter for that 9f race. Jim happened to show me this earlier so I can explain it. he likes to really gauge horses from the very start of the race. He wanted to see a quarter time for the race so what he does is pick a quarter time from a horse's other race he thinks is comparable to what it might have done in the race. That 23.2 was taken from the 3rd race back Charlie. If you look that 1/2 times are almost identical so Jim just grabbed that quarter time.

hope this helps
Rich

[RichieP]

Here is the PDF file of the race showing the company lines over on the right where you can see the Tandems Jim refers to.

Apologize for the delay. Ted and myself were having problems getting this up here.

Rich

[THE HAT]

Charlie,
Ritchie and Ted answered your question, but I will elaborate.
1. Tandem races does not nee the winner in today's race.
2. The race for the projected pace was a 9 furlong race an first call is the half mile. So I fudged and used the first call from the third line.

The Hat

[Ted Craven]

Video Replay (http://calracing.charlson.com/cbraceselector/cbmediaplayer.aspx?RaceDate=05/14/2006&CardID=BEL&RaceNumber=8) (needs Internet Explorer browser, not Firefox browser)

:)

Ted

[turfcraft]

This seems to be a very very difficult part about the match up
let alone horseracing.When should an adj be made? Horses are changing
courses alot these days turf and dirt,Jim what would you recommend to
really feel confident about making adjs.Dirt racing seems alot easier than
turf.And now we have have polytrack wher stks horses run 46 and 1:11
times in 6f races! I have read the matchup but the adj part is always
the hard part.Thanks for any help for all of us.
Good Health

[cprescigno]

Jim,

The first PP sheet did not show the tandems. It was hard to track the document without being able to see them. The second PDF showing the tandems is a lot easier to track. I understand that the tandem winner does not have to be in today's race.

The projected pace for the race we are working is
23.2 47 110.3 135.2 147.4
The Foreverness Tandem 11/16 distance was
23.4 49 113.4 143

From that we eliminated Pa Pa Da........but if we go four back on Pa Pa same dist. we get
46.4 110.1 13.4 145.2
So why do we give more weight to the tandem race and eliminate him as a win contender?

Charlie

[THE HAT]

Ok,
I'll try to answer the two questions at the same time.
1. Adjustments are not part of the Five Step Approach. The Five Step Approach is to learn the steps of The Match Up. Most of the time the
Tandem, Matching Running Lines and Matching Today's Pace will take care
of any adjustments. Try learning the Five Step Approach, without making it more difficult.
Charlie,
Pa Pa Da was beaten 14 1/2 lengths on the 9 furlong race at Belmont, which is enough ts enough to eliminate him, besides he is a Presser and can't win the race.

[sdahl]

Jim I have a question. When determining running styles for horses, what if a horse shows 2 different styles. For example, he has 2 good races and one is a sustained style and the other shows early.
Stan

[THE HAT]

Stan,

These are dangerous horses. If there isn't any speed in the race they could
get the lead. I look at the total past performance and usually put more weight on the most resent line.

Jim

[Turbulator]

Thank you, Jim for your analysis. It's much appreciated. I studied this race for two full days before I looked at the explanation and results. I wanted to see if I could get to the nitty gritty of this race without any help. I suggest to all following these threads that if Jim is kind enough to post any more races that you go through this process as well. It will help your handicapping immensely. And don't just say, I think I've got it figured out. Actually get in there and study it until you are as sure as you can be. It will be well worth the effort.

At first glance I thought this race was very hard. There were a lot of different distances and many different tracks and surfaces. It hurt my head just thinking about all of it. It thought it was very hard.

After struggling for a long time with the projected pace I ended up picking the wrong projected pace line. Even so my final two horses were Dave and Retribution. I had taken a completely different route. Then I took a peek at the explanation . . . Retribution four races back. Damn.

I couldn't believe I overlooked this. I tried using three different projected pace lines for this race, but when Jim said this is the race to use it then became painfully obvious where I made my mistake.

So then I went back to studying the race from that point forward, and I'm happy to say I got it down to the winner (Dave) and Retribution again. (Yes, I know Retribution was eliminated, but I still felt he was a contender.)

So here is my problem. I don't see that Unnerving will bother Retribution on the front end. I can see where he might bother him to the first quarter, but It looks to me like Retribution will be all alone at the half and 3/4 marks. In other words, Unnerving isn't nearly as fast going to the lead. I can understand throwing them both out if you think they will bother each other most of the way, but I don't see that they will.

Here is the projected pace:

23.2 47 110.3 135.2 147.4

And here are the last three lines for Unnerving:

1Aqu yld 1 1/16 T :23.4 :48.4 1:14.3 1:47.1
7Aqu fm 1 T :23.2 : 47.1 1:12.1 1:37.2
10Bel fm 1 1/16 T :24 :48.4 1:12.4 1:42.1

I have Retribution well ahead at the half and 3/4.

Why do you think these two horses will fight tooth and nail for the front end? Why won't Retribution be able to "put away" Unnerving?

Thanks again, Jim

Steve

[Turbulator]

I just thought of one answer to my own question. Unnerving is a part of a coupled entry with a sustained horse, so it seems only logical that they will send him in order to help set up the race for Golden commander.

However, I'd still be interested in hearing Jim's answer to my orignal question assuming Unnerving and Golden Commander were not part of a coupled entry.

Thanks,

Steve

[VoodooFan]

Here's my theory. MatchUp theory:1) Doc Sartin always said a horses 1st fraction, regardless of form, tells you how the horse is feeling....with that said...MatchUp theory:2)Unnerving last 4 races, he broke no less than 2nd before the quarter mile. MatchUp theory:3) For "True" Early horses: check past performance of old races of Early horses(horses that either Need-to-Lead, or 2nd within 1/2 length), regardless of days off, you will notice that if an Early horse either gets the lead, or is 2nd by a Head, or maybe even 2nd within 1/2 length at the 1st call,........ his very next try, he will "break" for the lead when the gate opens,and whether he gets it or not at the quarter, he'll run hard at the break, most likely "Heading" the horse before the quarter, NO MATTER HOW FAST THE FRACTIONS ARE!!!! He'll run "Real Hard" at the "break" before settling for 2nd at the 1st call, if he dont outright get the lead at the first call anyway. This will "cost" him and any other Early horse valuable energy at the end of the race. Picture it. If you run as fast as you can humanly run for just a few seconds then , settle into a pace, you will not have the kind of energy you need to finish the race strongly , had you had an "Easy going" start at the "break". Check old racing forms to verify this "MatchUp" theory. The MatchUp can answer questions no other methods can usually answer. As "the Hat" says, trust in the MatchUp, it is the "Reality" of horseracing. Hopefully, Mr. Bradshaw can verify this or explain the correct answer.