Contenders

[rmath]

For those who are having a few problems getting the contenders in most races I thought I would share my findings.
In 565 races I have found that over 90% of all winners have a rating of 4 or lower in one of these three ratings , CSR , Profit Line , or Bris Prime Power.
520 wins .92
481 place .85
In most races this gives me 5 or 6 contenders to run thru RDSS.

As I have stated before I only play races with at least 8 betting interests .
No maiden races.
No races for 3 Yr olds and up before July 1st.
No turf races.
I prefer races at 5.5f, 6f, 8f , 1mi and 70 yards ,and 8.5 f.
These are the most common distances run at the tracks I like to play.
I do NOT eliminate any horses for being off over 90 days OR whose Morning Line is 20/1 or higher. Rdss will separate the true contenders and get it down to two or three main win contenders a very high percentage of the time.

I hope this information is a help to any and all who are having trouble getting the main contenders for win.
If anyone has any questions feel free to PM me or call me.
Rmath

[Lt1]

Thanks for taking the time to share this Richie. Hope to see more post from you since you are very versed in the use of the Methodology and have had great prior success which has been documented in various follow ups.
Tim

[rmath]

Thanks Tim.
I appreciate your kind words.
Rmath

[Mitch44]

Members would be smart to follow your post Richie. They'll benefit from a lot of hard work and record keeping, which allows them to get off to a great start out of the starting gate of this difficult game.

Richie goes back to the early 90's with Sartin, he also applies a consistent approach to the game and one can benefit greatly from his experience.

Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Thank you Richard

Thanks for compiling the data. We appreciate your helping folks find winning
contenders and a solid base for races to play

Good skill and health

Bill

[rmath]

Thank you Mitch and Bill.
I can only hope that the info will help others become more successful in this wonderful pastime of horse racing.
Rmath

[MJS6916]

Thanks rmath.

[Dorianmode]

Thanks. Great data. I have found it helpful to make a "contender" profile, (as separate, in addition to a win profile, from a number of elements, just so I don't forget to look at something. It's very helpful. I'm keeping data on it now, for a while to see how reliable it is.

Mostly, I wanted to share this little tool in Excel, (attached, which can be modified in any way you care to) which has been very helpful to me. It was demonstrated to me by one of our, now, non-active members. It's an enhancement of the Excel "Small" function. I put the instructions in the file. Basically it allows the researcher to enter (change) the percentage IN WHICH winners are found in data already collected. For example, say I have some data on the final placement of APV. If I set the "Small" function (that's what it's called), to 0.75, it will rank the indicators for their accuracy in finding 75 percent of the wins in that category. You can change it to whatever you want. So instead of 75 percent, I could look for 90 percent, (ie change the "small" value to 0.90), and it will change the output to what it sees for that.

Let me know if there are questions.

[Bill Lyster]

46190

So in your example the yellow cell is set at 80%. No problem with the results in the APV column, but the BL column shows 1.8 where 3 of the 7 entries are #1 and two are #2. So 5 of the 7 are either 1 or 2 (5/7)ths = 71.43%. somewhat similarly in the BL/BL# column 5 of the 7 entrants are ranked #1 (again 71.42%)

It appears that if the yellow cell was set at 70% the above would be true answers, as opposed to 80%

Am I missing something?

[Dorianmode]

No Bill, I think you get it.

The data are "dummy" data, .... input some real data you have, I suggest. I just was checking to make sure it was working. I made them up to show the tool.

The green data with 0.80 showing is (means) :
"How high in the data do you have to go to get 80 % of it, starting with the smallest".

On a practical level for us, that means the lower the green number, the better the indicator works. Basically I want 1's and 2's in my data ... to capture the wins.

Great question.
In general I was wondering (other than this) if there is any interest in having an "Excel" thread ... to talk about tools, and tricks ?

[Bill V.]

Greetings Dorianmode

Thank you for the excel file. I'm doing some Phase 1 digging . lots of interesting tidbits

Great question.
In general I was wondering (other than this) if there is any interest in having an "Excel" thread ... to talk about tools, and tricks ?


This is a great request. It is something I would be very interested in.
Data analysis especially visual with charts and pivot table quires
are something I felt Doc would have loved to explore. I have a bunch of such
data analysis using Excel. I wish I had more energy, to post my findings.
In a timely manner.
I would love to learn from others some new "tricks' and
methods.

[gentz]

I dont know how much I could add, but I'd be interested in an excel thread also.

[Bill Lyster]

sure why not

[Dorianmode]

Great. Anyone care to pose a question to start out the thread ?

But, back to contenders ....
In a profile, one could use the tools Ted has built into the profile templates, to evaluate what wins and how often. I had a somewhat similar set of tools built into my (expanded) profiles, (although I tend to put my stats summaries at the top of the data ... that way you can just keep adding rows of data ... as much as you need. There's also another easy simple tool in Excel, called "Max", which pulls out the maximum value for any set of data. It's simple, but skewed if there are "outliers". (I could post an example if anyone wants it). I also look at "standard deviation", (the lower the better, and the more consistent the data, and the more consistent the performance of the horse), and all sorts of other things. Eventually I find with all the numbers and tools in RDSS, you have to decide how to narrow it all down to just a few things. ... especially if you are preparing your races while they are being run. My effort right now is to determine what percent, in which kind of race, has the winner in my top 3 contenders. It's pretty high. But what the number is, is yet TBD, ....but the idea posed here above, to look at contenders as a separate issue, from picking a winner, is very interesting and important, in my opinion.

[stugots119]

Question, if the track is sloppy do you guys stay away?

[Dorianmode]

Absolutely. Like the plague. :)
In my race selection process, I check the weather / projected conditions of the tracks where the races are I intend to play. I know there are expert handicappers who can deal with this additional uncertainty .. for me it's a "Why do this ?" ... there are so many other races to look at, as possibilities, for me it's a "no-brainer".

Good weather, at least 8 runners in the field, no extreme favorites, (don't get me started on the subject of scratches these days :( ), a racing record that is somewhat predictable .. are all elements of my RACE screening process. Race selection is SO important .... much more important that some realize. If I end up with 4 races on a Saturday that pass my screening process ... fine. Today it was 2 !

But ... that's just my process. I'm sure there are people here who specialize in off-track situations ... I just want every advantage available

[Dorianmode]

Sorry, I was wrong. Today was 4, not 2 that passed my screening.
Woodbine 4 and 8. Gulfstream 1 and 3.

[stugots119]

Thank you I appreciate it.

[dlivery]

Hey There

No I find any horse do like to splash around in the slop and be Fast

[dlivery]

Just to update
I would certainly have great interest in starting at the basics of Excell

[Old Arkie Gal]

Thanks Richard. As you know I have been using your approach and find it very helpful.

Also would be interested in an Excel thread. I have big gaps in my self taught knowledge of Excel.

[mick]

Thank you, Richard. It's great information for both newbies and old dogs like me. I know that you've put years into your statistical research and I appreciate your generosity in sharing your findings with us.

[Bill V.]

Hi Mick

Nice picture of you and Tim LT1 !

Bill

[rmath]

Thanks to all who have responded.
My hope is that some will profit from my research.
A special thanks to LT1 and Old Arkie Girl for encouraging me to post my findings.

Rmath

[mick]

Hi Mick

Nice picture of you and Tim LT1 !

Bill


Thanks, Bill. Over my three days with Lt. Tim at Belmont, he bet 8 races and hit 6 of them. That's playing your horses.

[Bill V.]

Mick
It reminds me of the great time we had last year at Saratoga

Tim is the Steve McQueen of Pace and Cap .

Cool hand Tim

46192

[DaveEdwards]

Thanks Richard. As you know I have been using your approach and find it very helpful.

Also would be interested in an Excel thread. I have big gaps in my self taught knowledge of Excel.

[DaveEdwards]

Not sure what happened there. I wasn't quite ready to make the previous post!
Just replying to Old Arkie Gal.

If you go to YouTube and check out a channel on there called excelisfun you'll find everything you need about excel and plenty more too.
He has done a load of excel videos. I use his tutorials from time to time if I need to find something out for work etc. His stuff is easy to follow along with.

[Old Arkie Gal]

Not sure what happened there. I wasn't quite ready to make the previous post!
Just replying to Old Arkie Gal.

If you go to YouTube and check out a channel on there called excelisfun you'll find everything you need about excel and plenty more too.
He has done a load of excel videos. I use his tutorials from time to time if I need to find something out for work etc. His stuff is easy to follow along with.

Sounds like a little glitch somewhere. Thanks for the reference, I will use it.
Pat