Interested to see Which line

[Bill V.]

Hello friends

Which line?

This is a horse running in the 7th and feature race today at Finger Lakes
My question, Which pace line to use? Line 1 is a "0" race
He ran 14 days ago. This is the 4th race in his form cycle.
The comment says "sluggish start, mild rail bid"
His readouts from line 1 show that line 1 is comparable to all his
other "+" races.

He uses his energy well, He is forwardly placed but uses his energy
just slightly to the early side of the early/late graph so runs good third fractions.

My question, since as far as I can tell, nothing has changed since the last race in his form cycle, except now he is going back to 6 furlongs.
Can I excuse line 1 and use line 2
My answer is, even though it is not a + race I can't get a read on where this horse is in form.
Here is what I do in these cases, I will use line 2 but if the horse ranks third
or worse on the final RX or BLBL readouts I will avoid betting him
because he probably needs a rest as he is going off form based on line 1

I ask this because I see this pattern often in races before a horse goes on layoffs
It's the old "pirco" saying " don't use a line that put the horse in the barn"

Good Skill

Bill

46920

[gandalf380]

I don't see any reason not to use the last line. I don't think it really matters. He took a step up in class and ran very evenly. It looks to me like 6f will help him.

[Bill V.]

Thank you, Charlie

I see the "evenly" run race for line 2 and the rise in class.

I can see patterns on KGEN visually - This can also be seen in numbers
in RDSS on the POH/POR screen

Based on the last 4 lines It shows line 1 as starting slow and rushing up
then running out of gas and having a lower than normal FF

46922

46923

[gandalf380]

It appears the slow start caused him to run much slower in the first fraction. You can infer this from the stronger HID and the weaker FX. Since he will probably face a slower pace today those numbers should return to normal for him.

[For The Lead]

Bill, I have a problem with this horse. I have blacked out all the “claiming” races it has been in so the only thing left are the “allowance” races it has been in. I did that because today’s race is an “allowance” race. As you can see, three of its’ allowance races were “NW2L” condition. The remaining allowance race doesn’t show a condition. Today’s race is an “allowance” race. Ok. On this basis and this basis only, I would not forgive the last line. It is a “0” race in an allowance race, therefore, I would not give it a line. Now comes my dilemma.

As I already mentioned, today’s race is an “allowance” race, but today’s race has a “NW1X” condition. I’m sure you will remember that in this condition I like horses that have WINS, not the standard “1 for somethings” that have only beat maidens. So, on this basis I would forgive the last line and use line 2.

[Jeebs]

This is an awesome thread! I feel that there should be more threads where we can help one another with deciding what the "right" line is for a horse.

Case in point, I was trying to decide how to approach a certain horse at Mountaineer. It is a nondescript Maiden Special for 3YOs at 6 furlongs. The #6 Open Out shows a good race going a mile at the Mountain last out, then two back at today's distance at Suffolk (In a Maiden Claimer), it didn't show much. Three back is where the Perceptor took me, in today's class and distance over a "Good" Mountain strip. However, it's adjusted fractional and final times are extremely fast, and faster than what I anticipate today's race to play out.

46925

46926

For me, this horse would not receive a line, as the last running line was a route, and the line two back is a "0" race with no qualifying moves in a race class that is lower than today's.
, However, it's APV/Class and CSR all indicate that this one can't be ignored. That said, I'd almost be inclined to use its start 5 back, the 3rd ranked perceptor total at Tampa going 7F, which shows a pace that is more realistic of what to expect.

Can you help me?

[For The Lead]

This is an awesome thread! I feel that there should be more threads where we can help one another with deciding what the "right" line is for a horse.

Case in point, I was trying to decide how to approach a certain horse at Mountaineer. It is a nondescript Maiden Special for 3YOs at 6 furlongs. The #6 Open Out shows a good race going a mile at the Mountain last out, then two back at today's distance at Suffolk (In a Maiden Claimer), it didn't show much. Three back is where the Perceptor took me, in today's class and distance over a "Good" Mountain strip. However, it's adjusted fractional and final times are extremely fast, and faster than what I anticipate today's race to play out.

46925

46926

The last running line was a route, and the line two back is a "0" race with no qualifying moves in a race class that is lower than today's. However, it's APV/Class and CSR all indicate that this one can't be ignored. That said, I'd almost be inclined to use its start 5 back, the 3rd ranked perceptor total at Tampa going 7F, which shows a pace that is more realistic of what to expect.

Can you help me?

Post editted by Ted ...

It is true I wouldn't use the last line as it is a route race.
However, as far as line 2 is concerned, one of the guidelines is to forgive a horses first race over a track at the current meet. This meets that requirement.
Therefore, line 3, 76 days ago at today's track, distance and class becomes the line to use.


Post editted by Ted ...

[Jeebs]

Line 3, Line 5... in the end, it didn't matter. #6 still stood out and was an easy winner drawing clear late. $5.20 isn't much to sneeze about, and I get it if others passed for lack of value, or the pratfalls that this race presented (two FTS).

[Bill V.]

Line 3, Line 5... in the end, it didn't matter. #6 still stood out and was an easy winner drawing clear late. $5.20 isn't much to sneeze about, and I get it if others passed for lack of value, or the pratfalls that this race presented (two FTS).

Hello Tim

I just saw your post/question. I would use line 3 also but not line 5
I don't like going back that far for a line. especially a maiden

2 and 3-year-olds develop differently, This shows up during the
Kentucky Derby prep races. How many times have a horse who won a Derby prep race end up never doing much else down the road?
They say it because they just had developed faster than the other 2-3
year old but then the others caught up. It's best to use recency and form in maiden races.

Another thing today's race is restricted to 3-year-olds only
The Suff race is for 3 and up. Also, It looks like they shipped up
there for the bigger purse The purse in the MC was $25,000
It looks like MNR MS have a purse of $14000

I would excuse the Suff line because it was the first try at a new track
which is right out of the paceline manual.

GS
Bill

[Bill V.]

The 7th race with horse 1 Dreams from my opening post, turned out to be an interesting result,

Here are the full PP's if you want to work it on your own

46927

46928

46929

[Bill V.]

4 5 and 7 #6 was scratched

46930


46931


46932

[navyvet1994]

I agree with Sensei FTL, by all the readings I have so far from Pace and Cap I remember a few of the lessons. Isn't AL N1X the lowest of this class? so your horse is taking only one step up? also I was taught in the calls if the horse never reached at least 2 back of the leader don't use that line ( He did but he was in 5th after 1st call) Line 2 is best as the claim looks like it was an OPEN.

Now for the stupid part am I looking at this right or did I miss a step?

[Bill V.]

The conditions say, non winners of 1X or non winners of 4 races lifetime,

Here is what I came up with.

46945

46944

46946

46943

[Bill V.]

7 1

46947

[Mark]

Bill,



Being a Bradshaw advocate my reading of the horse's pps is more specific. Looking at each race at today's track, whenever this horse has run against a sub 23 first fraction he cannot win. This horse is very consistent and what you see in the various graphs you post is this fact. He is at best a Presser and when forced to chase faster 1st fractions he can't sustain this final fraction. That's to be expected because he used more energy early.

Edited

The answer to your question is: Use the line that approximates today's projected first call, or in Bradshaw's terms find the line with the best finish against the fastest early pace.

[Bill V.]

Hello Mark

Excuse me but I have edited your post

First how this man works races are not by class only. The guidelines analyze equal
parts of Recency (form) Class, Ability = Up close positions, Particularly the break and 1st fraction and Consistency
His guidelines eliminate noncontenders and noise

Second. As far as what I did or as you say "missed"
Perhaps you did not read the whole thread. I never worked this race.
First and foremost I asked the group for their opinions on one horse
Horse # 1. Why? because it was a race I happen to be looking at.
I saw a pattern that I come across often, The question involved was,
Should the last line be excused?
You choose to wait until I posted the PP's and result chart as it looks like you assumed I lost this race, because of my flawed handicapping.and or Sartin methodology method. Phase 1.

You never mention that my lines and RDSS get the very chalky winner
rated right on top, The horse I posted placed, losing by 1 length Using line 2 thanks to the response given to me in this post.

I never posted this example as a racing demo, I never asked, a post-mortem
why I could have lost this race.
It was requested that I post the entries, conditions and full PP's in a private message. This I did and was thanked privately.
The PM was from a participant. And I did not feel anybody needed to download a whole card that had already been run just to help me analyze
one particular horse and a pattern, in regards to excusing the last line.

The posts and thread were submitted as a learning example and I feel it served the group well.

Friends helping friends win

Thanks, Mark for your view on the paceline
I appreciate that.

Bill

[Mark]

Bill,

I have read all of FTL's posts, some multiple times. I have great respect for his work and the hours spent handicapping and posting his work and results. I could care less that much of it is after the fact because his methods are always consistent and most of them based on original Sartin criteria. In this example, he just sited the class aspect which was a more general way of making the point I did. There was no disrespect or derision in my comment.
The class factor was telling in this case as the first fractions, there for all to see without reference to any other screens showed this particular horse's weakness. When forced to chase sub 23 first fractions it uses too much energy and cannot make up the lost ground late. So depending on your projected first fraction you could easily determine whether the horse was a win contender or not.

As a teaching example this was classic, unmarred by huge distance or surface switches and races over today's track. If ever there was an opportunity to handicap a race from RAW data, which I use, except on turf, this was it.

Finally, it is my belief and perspective that the 1st fraction is the key to the outcome of the race. It was easy enough to quickly calculate the POR 2nd fractions and see that the last race was just too fast early for this particular animal to win. As I remember, it was the best early pace of the recent races showing. And the horse ran his race. This is a decent horse that gives good effort every time out when fit but he was merely over matched. TPR informs the user of 2nd call and final fraction and are shapshots of a point in time in the race. For long time users like yourself, that may be enough. However, for me and I have been handicapping for over 50 years, I need to look at all three fractions and see how a horse responds to different pace scenarios.

As a teaching example I believe it is important that subscribers or new handicappers be exposed to different ways of looking at the races. Then they can answer the questions for themselves.

It was my impression that this blog was open for the presentation of different points of view as long as they were respectful. I can't see that my post violated and announced rules. Has that changed?

[Bill V.]

I really appreciate the post

Pace and Cap is always going to be open to all of the Sartin library and
phases Please if you can, always feel free to work races with us and help us out with Bradshaws match up steps

Good Skill
Bill

[Lefty]

Bill, good job. Winner didn't pay much but it looked pretty easy to come up with the exacta too.

[Lefty]

Just wondering if exactas can be had using VDC? I had two nice exactas last week using Synergism too, but manual input starting to get hard on this old back. Thanks in advance.
Chuck Swope

[Mitch44]

I concur with Bill's line picking because the line used was the best Preceptor of last 3 on a similar surface and within 1 F of todays distance, and also the line picked fit each horse's normal running style.


Bottom line is you can't argue with success. Nice job Bill.



Mitch44

[navyvet1994]

I have a question for everyone. In a lot of the readings and notes I see with in P & C I see alot of don't use a sprint line for a route race and don't use a route line for a sprint race. Also I have see that for a form of liberal purpose we can go 1 furlong down or up. what happens when a horse that has run 7.0 7.5 go into an 8.0 race?

I'm using one of the examples (rookie SCHOOL for me) so i won't show the race.