The concept of using multiple lines

[Jeebs]

I've read many posts about using more than one line to qualify a horse, which seems to be a fair application. One performance does not always do a horse justice. I've read Doc's guideline of when using multiple lines, to hide/eliminate the one scoring lowest on BL/BL. But what if you wish to keep both lines in play? There are old posts floating around (pre-2018) that either preach or give examples of when multiple lines were used, but offer little to no information on how to make a proper evaluation as a whole.

[Lt1]

Hi Tim
When I decide to look at 2 lines for a horse I look at the primary screen, the BL/BL screen, and finally the RX screen. On rare occasions[usually with NTL types] I will look at the segment and POH screens to verify that it can get the lead. After that I toss the low rated line since I see no reason to keep it around to muddle the readouts of my other horses.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Hi Jeebs(Tim),


There are lots of "old posts floating around" that discombobulate both seasoned and newbie users. You found a doozy of a concept that predates 1988. That's not to mean the post you read is that old or someone isn't still using the procedure.


There are those that have some limited success and after which can not give it up. After all they were probably a total failure before so the least smell of success becomes intoxicating. Also they tend not to keep good records so they are not fully aware of true expectations, ROI etc. Stubborn resistance to change is a serious phycological problem that impedes success. As we all know "The Doc" was big on the psychology of winning as part of the foundation of success.


The "Old Yellow Manual" or Pace-Speed-Class manual went through 3 different editions; 1982.1987 and 1988. In the 1988 edition on page II of the pretext/ updated he states:
AVERAGEING
On page 16 in the Basic Phase III manual we state that averaging can be dangerous at best. While certain individuals can use averaging to their advantage, for most it is a disaster DO NOT AVERAGE. We have far better tools for selecting a PREDICATIVE PACE LINE.
Note: this was 1988 long before Preceptor etc. which even surpasses what he was referring to at that time.


Now I'm sure I'll be divulged with those that can do this. I'm sure when Sartin said "certain individuals," he was referring to the likes of Bradshaw and Brohamer which I don't see many of them around.


Sartin also referred to the blink of an eye as to how many horses cross the finish line during that blink. The overwhelming majority of races are very close with many photo finishes. This is his reason behind using the "Best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface." In order to win a horse will have to perform its best in order to win those photos and close finishes. I have long ago brought into that concept of racing that its best will be needed today as the dominant horse that can win by many lengths or is class superior are rare. The structure of racing and conditions are to equalize and prevent anyone horse from dominating and it does a real good job at it or favorites would win much more.


Sartin was constantly evolving to eliminate or take out the trash and refine the things that showed potential. One way he did this was through reports from members, testing, thinking outside the box and bringing together the best of ideas while always giving credit to those that birthed those ideas.


Bottom line is if you fail to take each horses best your ability to select the best among the field will be faulty and you'll fail much more than you should.


Mitch44

[tom]

This is where K-Gen came in handy - run multiple lines through the program and see which ones look normal and which are aberrant. I would often see 3 lines appear very similar and 1 totally out of wack. That would typically be the one I chose! :D

[Mitch44]

With todays improvements the RDSS of now is far superior than the K-Gen of the past. Specifically Preceptor and all of a horses races being rated within the horses own chart, or Total Energy, POR, TPR etc. for every race. But the real bomb is the Preceptor for picking proper pace lines. Nothing will outperform it or is comparable, period.


Its decent as a top 4 readout for final decisions but other Factors are superior to it .
Miitch44

[Bill V.]

Hello Mitch

Excellent post, The 3 readouts on RDSS to the far right of each paceline POR POH TE give a good visual look at which line is the correct.

Like Tom said that was what set KGEN apart in its time, The ability to SEE
the better line made KGEN on of Doc's favorites

[CheckMark]

Hello Mitch

Excellent post, The 3 readouts on RDSS to the far right of each paceline POR POH TE give a good visual look at which line is the correct.

Like Tom said that was what set KGEN apart in its time, The ability to SEE
the better line made KGEN on of Doc's favorites

That’s exactly what I look at. But what color should i look for Bill?

[Mitch44]

Hello CheckMark,


Allow me to clarify my post. Those things(Tot. Energy, TPR, POR & POH) are all good indicators of a good line that previously didn't exist for all the horse's races and are dinosaurs as compared to Preceptor. Preceptor will outperform them all when it comes to getting the correct line. They consist of the 3 Fractions. Sartin later compounded those Fractions which moved his concepts forward. The Preceptor contains compounded Fractions and at least 7 compounded Primary Factors.

Additionally it compares one line against another to determine which is best. Tot Energy. POR ,POH and TPR doesn't do that. Its able to determine internal moves that the human misses while the others just add up the 3 Fractions.


Its Sartin best factors all rolled into one. Now there are other factors that will beat Preceptor for final decisions WHEN COMPARING ALL LINES CHOSEN OF ALL CONTENDERS.

There are other things TPR,Tot. Energy, POR & POH can be used for and its nice to have it all done for you however comparing the lines within a single horses chart Preceptor rules for the correct line and following Sartin guidelines for picking the correct pace line. Don't believe me keep records of all that stuff and research it yourself.


Best of luck CheckMark,
Mitch44

[Bill V.]

That’s exactly what I look at. But what color should i look for Bill?

Hello Checkmark( name ?)

In RDSS Red is always #1 Green is # 2 and Yellow is 3rd

In this example

The line with the best preceptor, Total energy and TPR is line 2
It is shaded Red = best

It is also the FTL guidelines horse if you excuse line 1 for being too high class

Iif a horse has run better in lower lines, and the colors are not in the top 5
horses, then look for the horse with either a bold number or the lowest of the best of the last three comparable pacelines

[DaveEdwards]

I'm not sure which year the Sartin Pro Paceline Tapes were produced, but they do confirm Mitch's first post about not averaging.
The emphasis was in selecting the line that was most reflective of how the horse will run today.

Apologies, I'm not trying to steer anyone away from the Perceptor route, just more evidence to back up Mitch's point.

[thelyingthief]

in KGEN the idea was to put in five pace lines for each horse, select the best, for every horse in the race; put the best 4 or 5 in EXDC.

[Mitch44]

There is nothing wrong with entering more than one line to determine which line is best. BLBL in todays RDSS is excellent for that. The overwhelming users that look at a line visually will pick the wrong line. Its error prone to the max regardless of how you good think you are at this. There are times even I use the program to determine some puzzling or even close lines. Why not use the program which is smarter than us to make that decision. The power of the program supersedes us, unless your Sartin or come from Tulsa and wear a cowboy hat. Sartin even recommended this in 1990 at the Saratoga seminar.

What Sartin was totally against was using more that one line and averaging the results. He caution against this and specifically stated not to do this. His recommendation came after much testing and comparing results.

Mitch44.

[Mark]

Bill Burns, a brilliant engineer, authored a phenomenal handicapping back in the 90's called Thoro - something, I can't remember the full name. He averaged pacelines. Ken Massa, whose HTR and associated programs has a subscriber base much larger than RDSS, averages pacelines with an automatic line selection method that uses Artificial Intelligence, when his algorithms call for it. Both had exposure to Doc Sartin and Jim Bradshaw and have gone their own way, successfully.
It behooves us all if we have the inclination to explore our ideas and test the results. If they work you probably have an edge, or if you are not that industrious use what you want.
Buckin' Billy Ray Smith is a logger and axe maker up in BC. He has a you tube channel that I have followed and he makes a very good point. Knowledge is a product of experience. Book learning and forum reading is not experience. Do it yourself and then you know for sure.