Matching up correctly

[RichieP]

I knew I was NOT applying Jim's stuff correctly. Mixing software with this and that. Gaining ground nonsense etc etc etc.

Got a "tune up" and steered in the CORRECT direction.

I was gonna show a race from Cd yesterday but this race from Evd last night is even easier and pays good.

First let me show the pp's for the field please. I am going to show ORIGINAL pacelines using Specpa as the vehicle to show them ok? But we are NOT gonna use software at all to work the race and decision make.

Evangeline - Race 9 - 8f dirt

[RichieP]

This is Horse # 1 - Brickly Bear

I am only gonna show the ORIGINAL pacelines on the lower half of paceline screen. I wanna block everything else out ok?

[RichieP]

Horse # 2 - Madame Falcon

[RichieP]

Horse # 3 - Paris Pride

[RichieP]

Horse # 4 - Satty Nite

[RichieP]

Horse # 5 - Madison's Music

[RichieP]

Horse # 6 - Blue Eyed Lass

this is the 4/5 HEAVY favorite in the race

[RichieP]

Horse # 7 - Bayou Beauty

[RichieP]

ok now we have to find the "boss" early. It's the # 5 - Madison's Pride.

I have marked 2 lines - the 3rd back is at this distance
1c - 48.8 - on the lead
2c - 114.8 - 2nd - 1.5 lenghts off

The last race is at 8.3f
I see the 2nd c here is 114.5. I work Evd every night and for some reason to ME these 8.3 f races run faster than the 8f races. An anomaly I notice a lot.
2c - 114.5

I used this last line only to kinda solidify in my mind that I wanted to use the 114.8 2c time at this distance as my time to match the others.

I made the pace calls ( 1c and 2c) to match pacelines for the rest of field
1c - 48.8
2c - 114.8

[RichieP]

Ok so we have our projected 1c and 2c

1c - 48.8
2c - 114.8

Now Jim says in his 5 steps to find a paceline with a final time that matches the first 2 calls.

looking at the field we find an exact match. Guess who it is? Yes the heavy 4/5 favorite # 6

1c - 48.7
2c - 114.7
ft - 141.1 - and this is a WIN line.

ok so I am VERY confident I have down these steps right.

Here is the screen shot of the # 6 with the line marked

[RichieP]

ok so I start with the # 1 horse trying to find lines MATCHING the proj pace
1c - 48.8
2c - 114.8
ft - 141.1

here is the # 1 horse.

looking down to line 5 he is an exact match to the proj pace and finished 2nd less than a lenght. he is in reasonable form looking at his last couple of lines so we add him as a contender

[RichieP]

ok here is horse # 2

this is the ONLY horse I made a call on and its because of that 8.3f line in the last race. I did NOT buy that line
1c - 47.5
2c - 113.6

BOTH the calls are MOREthan one full second faster than the proj pace. If you buy that line there is noone else in the race to consider.

I didnt buy the line and here is WHY. lines 2 and 3 are both from TODAYS distance of 8f ok? look at 2 back please. Horse blows the field away and earns the SAME EXACT speed rating as the last race with that crazy high pace.

Pace from the 2 back 8f blowout
1c - 49.5
2c - 115.4

much to SLOW against todays proj pace.

anyway I tossed him as a contender based on that fact ok?

he raced up close early on and totally COLLAPSED before they even got to the far turn. TOO SLOW

[RichieP]

ok the ONLY other contender who raced against the proj pace or quicker was the # 3 - Paris Pride

here is his last line

contender

[RichieP]

you can look at all the other horses. NOBODY other than the 6 -1 - 3 can match the proj pace set by the 5.

check it for yourself.

ok so here is the screen shot of the ORIGINAL pacelines of the contenders including the proj pace seeter # 5.

LOOKING at the lines the 5 figures to set the pace and collapse by the 2c.

There is NO other early speed here so a closer should NOT win this race. GOODBYE # 3.

Win should go to an early presser type who sits close to that 5 and takes over. that leaves the # 1 and # 6.

We are supposed to begin matching the horses at the FIRST call. So in thi race if we are looking for early to win of the # 1 and # 6 who is best at 1c?

the # 1. We can carry across this matching up of the 1 and 6 but first we should know that these races showing for the 1 and 6 are the SAME race btw. It's a tandem where the 6 beat the 1 at the finish by 1/2 a lenght.

these are the only 2 horses in the race man. 1 and 6 - 1 and 6

odds at 2 mtp?

1 - 8/1
6 - 3/5

see how we did this? NEVER looked at readouts - just matched up the horses and determined how the race should go.

screen shot of the contenders

[RichieP]

I took a $ 4.00 win bet on the # 1 and then took a $ 4.00 Quinella 1-6

the 1 beats the 6 in the shadow of the wire paying $ 18.40

[RichieP]

for not a lot of money the result was pretty good. I've been practicing using bets of $ 8.00- $ 10.00 a race. When I get better my bets using this method will increase.

I have to bet because otherwise it's not real to me.

ok hope this made sense. I had an unreal day yesterday after my " tune up"

Richie

[shoeless]

Richie,Job well done lil bro,Happy Holiday to you and your family.Jeff

[RichieP]

Here is the result chart of the race

notice we have the final time NAILED perfectly. 1c pace very close. 2c pace went in 114. set by who? yes the # 5 like we thought. and he died just like we thought.

also that # 2 who had that crazy last race from 8.3f collapsed under the pace he faced tonight.

Richie

[THE HAT]

Richie,
Great job. You make me proud. You matched the race following the Five Step Approach the way it has to be . Great call on the number two horse. Keep up the good work.

Jim

[dugoutgold]

Great Job Rich, I really like this post, time for me now to go to work on this!. Look forward to more examples for you also.:)

[Turbulator]

Richie,

Why doesn't Salty Nite's third back qualify him as a contender?

[RichieP]

Richie,

Why doesn't Salty Nite's third back qualify him as a contender?

Hi Steve,
final time on that race is 141.3 ( converting to fifths).

our proj paceline is

48.8 - 114.8 - 141


final time is too slow on that paceline Steve. 3/5 ths of a second too slow.

Richie

[Turbulator]

Hi Steve,
final time on that race is 141.3 ( converting to fifths).

our proj paceline is

48.8 - 114.8 - 141


final time is too slow on that paceline Steve. 3/5 ths of a second too slow.

Richie


OK, I can live with that, but I think that is cutting it pretty close. Are you looking for exact matches, close matches, how are you drawing the distinctions?

Another question is how did you think the race would run. Presser or sustained?

Salty nite and Brickly Bear are both sustained horses are they not? I probably would have bet them both to win at those prices.

Correct any mistakes I made, please.

Steve

[RichieP]

OK, I can live with that, but I think that is cutting it pretty close. Are you looking for exact matches, close matches, how are you drawing the distinctions?

Another question is how did you think the race would run. Presser or sustained?

Salty nite and Brickly Bear are both sustained horses are they not? I probably would have bet them both to win at those prices.

Correct any mistakes I made, please.

Steve

I called Brickey a Presser. His line used he ran like E/p Presser. Satty I didnt include so it didnt matter.

Looking at the screen with the original lines I made a call that sustained had no shot. By sustained I mean a deep closer way back at 1c. Thats why I threw the 3 out. So if I threw the 3 out being too late, threw the pacesetter 5 out cause he would collapse at 2c that only left 2 horses Steve. the 6 and 1.

Then I am supposed to match those horses 1 against the other starting with the first call. Thats how to get it down to 1 horse. I started at the 1c and although by a small bit the 1 was better than the 6. Then I realized the race was a tandem where they raced against 1 another. Saw the finish where they were seperated by 1/2 lenght, saw 4/5 on the 6 and 8/1 and the 1 and immediately fired. The odds made the race easy to bet.

IF however the odds on both the 6 and 1 were very good I woulda bet both for sure. I have to practice a lot more getting down to 2 horses THEN matching them heads up before I start bettin gone horse in EVERY race.

The ODDS helped a lot here.

Rich

[Turbulator]

Thanks Richie.

I'm curious about something. I'm wondering how they would have matched up if you had used the adjusted times instead of the raw times. I've been playing AP and there are a lot of different distances and shippers, so I'm trusing Speculator's adjusted times. I can adjust, but it's a lot of work and easy to make a mistake.

But I've been using adjusted times only, and the results aren't that bad. I have a lot of problem areas to be sure, but the adjusted times seem to work well for me.

Here is something else I've been doing. I pick pace lines for each horse, sometimes multiple lines, and then I look at those pace lines on the pace line screen so I can see them all next to each other. The early horses are highlighted by color next to the raw times, which is nice. Then I try to get it down to one line for each horse, project the pace, and then try and determine how the race is going to be run. Once I've done that it's just a matter of picking the best horse(s) out of the remaining contenders. Easier said than done, but that's how I'm going about it.

Maybe I'll download that EVD card and work it the way I've been doing things just for practice.

Thanks for the posts.

Steve

[cprescigno]

Steve,

I'm not answering for Richie but I know he'll tell you this same thing. Don't use the adjusted times. In a lot of cases they are way off. Do the work. Use the raw times and adjust manually for BL and distance. It works. The more you do them manually the less likely you are to make mistkes. You will get to the point where it becomes intuitive and it won't be nearly as much work as it was when you started. I am getting results that are leaving me with my mouth open in amazement.
Today I worked the Belmont 1st and 2nd race. Had to adjust six out of eight horses in the first race for distance and BL manually. In some cases I used both an 8F and 6f paceline as only two horses had a 7F paceline whcih was today's distance. I was really stubborn and did all that work. I arrived at the 2-7 to win, the 7 won and paid $37.60. I made the win in the first race and coupled it with a win in the second for an $84.50 double. My current win percentage is up to something like 75% and I still have tons to learn about this. But my accuracy and understanding of pace are improving dramatically thanks to the information that Jim and Richie have been posting up here.

Thanks guys, I appreciate the help. And my bank account is really going to appreciate it.

Charlie

[Turbulator]

It's possible I'm doing everything wrong, but here is how I analyze the same race.

I started with 16 pace lines. I usually pick three or four lines for each horse and look them all over right next to each other. I analyzed them all and tried to determine the most represenative line for each horse. A lot of back and forth. So I'm left with seven lines. (except for Madam I have two, which I'll explain later.) On top are the raw numbers and below are the adjusted.

Now from the top screen it's easy to see who had the lead at any call in the race because it's highlighted. Since no horse ran wire to wire in any of my selected pacelines, and using adjusted times, I took Madison's first call time of 48.5, Madam's second call time of 115.7 and Bluey's finsih time (the fastest final time) of 147.7 [After reading Richie's post it could very well be I'm selecting the final time incorrectly, but this is how I've been doing it in cases like this.]

My adjusted projected pace is 48.5 115.7 141.7

Like Richie, I felt the speed horse was weak and would die, plus he ran a very poor race. That leaves a horse coming from off the pace. But will it be presser or sustained?

First the sustained horses:

Paris is too slow at all three calls.

Satty is OK at the first two calls and a little bit slower at the finish.

Now the pressers:

Brick is 4/10ths slower at the first call, faster at the second call and tied for the finish.

Madam is too slow at all three calls.

Bluey is tied with Brick.

Bayou is slower at the first and third calls.

At this point is where I have been having my biggest problems. How will the race run? If it's sustained, throw out the pressers, if it's presser, throw out the sustained. This race is a little bit easier than many, because like Richie said there is only one weak speed horse and two good pressers. So if you go with a presser then you have two horses who not only ran good races but very closely match the projected pace. If you go sustained you lose. It gets tougher when you have one or two sustained horses who also match or exceed the projected pace. Or if you have two or three speed horses. Having two or three speed horses doesn't always mean it will run sustained. I've also seen pressers go wire-to-wire and leave a couple of speed horses in their wake. Sometimes the speed horses never even go for the lead. And I've also seen a speed horse win with several other early horses in the race. Like I said, this is my biggest stumbling block.

As you can see, using the adjusted times didn't hurt in this race. I haven't seen where it hurts that much in other races either. Belive me it gets complicated when you have horses coming from 7 furlongs, 6.5 furlongs, 1 1/16 and several other tracks. In this race all of the horses had raced at EVD and run at this distance. Let me ask you this: what would you do with a shipper in this field coming from an AP 1 1/16 race? It's even harder when you don't have the three-year tack records or the DRF speed ratings so you can construct your own. Using the adjusted times I don't have to worry about it, assuming of course the software handles these situations within a certain degree of accuracy. I'm just trusting Speculator to be close enough often enough to get me in the ballpark. If it proves to be way off, then it's back to the drawing board, but so far it hasn't been a problem. Like I said earlier my biggest headache is deciding how the race will run.

Also notice how it solved the problem of the two horse. I left in the 8.3 distance paceline of the two to show that the adjusted speed rating is much slower for that race even though the pace of the race comes out faster. So for the two I just chose his race at today's distance, which is also the fastest speed rating and final time.

I could go on and on, but I talk too much. Feel free to comment.

Steve

[cprescigno]

Steve,
I didn't do this race and I don't have the card so it's hard to answer some of the questions. But let's take that 2 horse and look at him differently. Here's the two pacelines with the adjustment for BL which are not in your numbers now and for distance.
Madam(1) 48.8 114.1 142.2 I adjusted call and final for BL and dist.
Madam(2) 49.7 115.4 141.9 adjusted for BL
I think the speed rating is using final time as a measurement. In final time there is only 3/10ths separating the two lines. Probably why they both have a 75 speed rating. If you look at the whole race (remember it starts at the gate) the pacelines are very different.
Send me your email address and I'll send you out something that will help you understand better why to work the race manually.

Charlie