How Do You Match-Up This Race

[Turbulator]

Here's an example of a race that personifies some my problems with the Match-Up. It's the 1st at EVD 5/27

Assuming my pacelines are correct how do you Match-Up this race?

If you think the race is going to run early then JD is the horse. If you think it is going to be won by a presser then it's Jacob. If sustained, then Walk or Prince look logical. So far so good. How do you decide?

First I thought presser, but then I felt that JD could possibly wire it. Then I switched to sustained, because i felt that the presser could possibly push JD to run faster than he wanted. But I wasn't sure about that, so I'm left to guess.

The only thing I was pretty sure of is if it did run sustained it was one of those two horses, Walk or Prince, and Walk appeared to have slightly the best of it. Walk and Prince came out of a tandem race.

Walk and Prince were the first and second favorite followed by the presser Jacob. The prices were pretty short, so I'm sure I would have probably passed this race. It's still a good exercise. If the Match-Up points to a short-priced favorite you can play it if you want to or key it in exotics, but it might not be a very good win bet unless you can single the horse with a lot of confidence.

[Turbulator]

Here is the result chart. Notice how Prince, a sustained horse, got the lead at the first two calls. He only shows going for the lead one time in his past performances, his last race was that of a presser and all of the others appear to be sustained.

[Turbulator]

Here is the past performance chart of Prince.

[Turbulator]

Did I mislable Walk? Is he more of a presser than sustained? His first five races seem to be more of a presser, but his last four races seem to run more sustained.

This is his chart.

[RichieP]

Hi Steve,

ok I KNOW the result of the race so thats clear. Having said that I will look ONLY at your original lines ok?

first off scratch the 2 please. Now going by YOUR lines:

Please scratch or hide the 1 and 6. They dont belong in the race TOO SLOW 2c

that leaves 3-4-5 here are the 3 of them only
1st off there is only 1 early so the sustained # 4 ( see how far back at 1c and 2c he is compared to the 3?) is out. that type is not supposed to win these race shapes.

Try matching the 3 and 4 against one another. Start with the 1c. Then move to 2c. Then final time.Thats what Jim says to do to get it down to 1 horse. If you believe the race favors a horse close to the pace setting 5 the # 3 is 3 lenghts better at the 1c and 3.5 lenghts better at 2c. he has the "jump" on the 4 horse.

my "look" at the race

And please if we are gonna get into software READOUTS and the like with this can we take it outside Hat's area please.

Thanx and Steve so you know your questions and criticisms of my approach in the Spec area privately has helped me a lot. You were dead on and I appreciate the feedback. What I was doing there has NOTHING to do with this approach.

screen shot showing ORIGINAL pacelines of the 3-4-5

Rich