when the match up fails

[tompkins]

in reviewing races that did not pan out, particularly match up wise, there is a recurring scheme that might explain things. Inherent to my understading of the match up is that one compares all horses to a similar yardstick: the projected pace of today's contest. But what about those horses that have NEVER faced the proposed match up today?

Case in point is the sixth race today at Woodbine

[tompkins]

going to the past performances, this is a commonality of these situations, this one is a layoff that, given the pace to which it ran, has done well in all outings. On visual ESP evaluation, this one appears never to have been tested much and has had a year to develope, comes back with a top rider and trainer.

[tompkins]

putting EVERY line into the possibles for today, it does not match up well.

[tompkins]

even on incremental deceleration, it does not fair well.

[tompkins]

the problem here seems to be that this one has NEVER been tested and has matured...be on the lookout for this situation: a competitive horse on ESP visual evaluation that has never been pushed to the pace pressures today's match up will require, but has potential.

[tompkins]

going back to the match up and using an early filter (eliminating all the higher of the second call lines) gets a better result, but still not a definitive one.

[dugoutgold]

Ive had this happen many a time here also, usually races that are NW@L types with one or more lighty raced horses, I end up passing many of these, the matchup concept seems to work best with horses that have had at least 8 races and more, good post:)

[admin]

Thanks for the example

[RichieP]

Now let's do the race using ORIGINAL lines the way it is SUPPOSED to be done please.

here are the pp's for ALL the horses and the ones with the lines marked are the fastest horses in the race

no chicanery here baby. WATCH

pay attention to ONLY the original lines marked on the lower half of the screen please

horse # 1

[RichieP]

horse 2

[RichieP]

horse 3

[RichieP]

horse 4

[RichieP]

horse 5

[RichieP]

horse 6

[RichieP]

horse 7

[RichieP]

horse 8

[RichieP]

horse 9

[RichieP]

horse 10

[RichieP]

ok here are the horses marked shown together on this screen

ORIGINAL lines

[RichieP]

ok here are those lines in Spec on 2 favorite screens

first the matchup screen the winning 1 is NOT in top 5 or top 5 2c

[RichieP]

now the bl/bl screen

NOTHING for the 1 anywhere

[RichieP]

SAME pacelines marked entered in Energy

guess who the BEST ranked Uxr horse is? Yup the winning 1 horse

I posted in another thread last night about FORGETTING the paragon stuff in most races. FOCUS on Uxr and Muv is what I wrote along with fractional breakdowns. mmm let's see

ok the 1 is TOP Uxr off same lines

[RichieP]

here is the other screen

Remember I said again FOCUS on Muv and Uxr.

take a peek at the winning 1 horse

ok?

[RichieP]

Just for the record: don't buy a ONE line matchup pace for a horse. How do I know this? The races and PRACTICE along with keeping records. Just trying to help. I do NOT have all the answers BUT I have a lot more than I did a week ago.



The BEST part of working this race is that in the other thread relating to Energy I said I had been noticing something VERY cool but wanted to wait. I can't believe it but it exists in THIS race also for the winner.

Amazing.

If this holds in a few cards I will post it up.

Truly AMAZING

have a nice day
Rich

[RichieP]

The ACTUAL pace of yesterday's race

22.1 - 45.3 - 111.3

Now look at the winning 1's ORIGINAL line. Amazing ha?

That 1 race wonder 44.4 - 110.2 pace the 10 set last race NEVER materialized.

In THIS race what happened was that the winner got ADJUSTED right out of the race man.Plain and simple. That's why the Matchup is not for this.

Off to the races outa town for a couple of days. Hoping to hook up in Jersey with the "Binder & Brooks" crew.

Rich

[cprescigno]

I'd have to agree with Richie here. You cant work the Match Up using Spec or Val parameters. If you really want to do it Match Up style, use the raw pacelines and do the manual BL and distance adjustments and you come up with the right answer in this case.

With a two win bet you wind up with the 10 and 1 for a win bet.
Doing it manually my adjusted lines are
1 - 22.3 45.8 111.7
4 - 22.6 46.1 111.8
10 - 22.4 44.9 110.9

The lines for the 1 and 4 horses were a lot closer to their actual performance than the 10 was to his. If you are going to do it Match Up style you have to do it Match Up guidelines and you can't fit it into Spec or Val.

Charle

And if you do it Match Up style you go to the window to collect your $15.

[tompkins]

there is always more than one way to view anything