+, (+), 0 Statistics

[gptx]

I came across this quote from FTL back in 2013 while reading through the "Picking Contenders & Pacelines" topic.

"91% of winners came off a “+” or “(+)” line in one of their last two races."

I was wondering if anyone happens to have statistics on this including the third race back also? Or even the last line only?

Thanks, Jess

[dlivery]

:1:st The last line therapy works best when looking for a contender in the race.
I like this approach as we have the basics to follow along to success

[gptx]

Well it came to me in the middle of the night that what I asked was pretty dumb. By adding the third race back there is only nine percentage points that it could go, and I'm sure it would be very near the top! Duh!


Oh well, as Barney Fife used to say "There's nothing to see here folks, move along." :rolleyes:

[Mitch44]

gptx:

I would suggest that you do your own study on this. Do you own study on any stat because one never knowns how the data was collected unless it was your own. or how intelligent the collector was.


The game has changed much since 2013. 91% tends to lock a person into only the top two lines and will cost one many winners, one shouldn't give up any percentage going into a race with a very restricted rule. Gathering of facts can be very subjective and are greatly influenced by the races selected to gather the facts. Then again some can only function with very strict rules and limit their ability by doing so. An example of how data is collected is the following: 3 yr. old's are learning while improving every month because of the maturity factor. In most cases the last line will be the correct line for a 3 year. If a lot of 3 yr. old races are included in a study, survey, or collection it'll skew the results and percentages. In fact in this year Ky. Derby out of 20 horses the last line is correct in at least 17 of those horses or 18 ( can't remember if its 2 or 3 when I looked at it last Saturday).That 85 to 90 % just for that race and age group. Follow that last line theory into races of older horses and your going to encounter many loses by only using the last line.

The majority of times the correct line will be in the last three however there are exceptions to everything. If a horse ran at the incorrect distance or surface that could take one to line 4. Don't forget Sartin's caveat of "at a comparable distance and surface."

Sartin guidelines keep us attuned to one of the most important factors that influence the outcome of a race and that is current condition. The further one goes back the less likely your dealing with the same horse. The object is to pick the line that best represents the horse and what it will do today and or have to do today.

Mitch44

[gptx]

Thanks Guys,


I definitely understand "comparable surface and distance."

What I am trying to do is settle on a consistent method of paceline selection. I feel I am a little all over the place sometimes (most times) with deciding which line to use.

I feel the direction I want to go is to settle on best of last three comparable surface/distance. Too many times I choose the last line "just" because it was a good line. Then after the fact, reviewing the race I see the second or third race back was a better line but I ignored it "just" because the last line was a good line, and it is ingrained in my mind that the most recent race is best. Too much emphasis on recency. Not that recency is unimportant, just saying that if better lines are not to far back I should consider them.

So with pluses/zeros (colored/underlined in the program) I am thinking that a + or (+) should serve as confidence to go back another line (best last three comparable) if another line is better. And not rigidly stick to the last race only because it shows some kind of decent form at some point in the line.

[Bill V.]

Hi Mitch

I agree with you, That 91%,? I would need to see the records myself to go with that figure blindly.

No two peoples records will ever be 100% alike. Everybody looks at things their own way. We all make judicial decisions on race types, class, surfaces field sizes, etc.

I just took a random 315 race sample from my Santa Anita spreadsheet.

I just grabbed 315 races from various parts of my total SA spreadsheet. I have every class, distance, surface, age, field size represented.
because I record the winner of every race run every day.


In my sample of 315 random races, using FTL's guidelines
to my own interpretation, ( I add a touch more Brohamer)
The winner of the race has a + or (+) a zero 222 times
from the last line or 2nd line if the last line can be excluded.

The percentage is 70%


But these stats include every factor class, distance, surface, age, field size
and are track specific (Santa Anita)

What I am saying is the best way to answer the opening posters question is
"make your own records and be consistent in your own work"


48013

[Mitch44]

gptx:


Your correct in the direction to go and that is to follow Sartin guidelines to pick a line from the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Comparable distance means within 1 furlong of todays distance and surface means the same .


FWIW I don't use off track lines except if a turf race and the horse doesn't have a turf line . Sloppy or off tracks lines are interchangeable with turf races but only if no turf lines exist. I don't even use off track lines even when the track is muddy or sloppy. My experience is the best horse still wins. The percentage of actual mudders so to speak is very minimal and more of and old wife's tale than actual fact.


As far as the X and O's that was circa 1989 or so. I consider that a waste of valuable handicapping time. Every race and line for every horse is rated in RDSS and a Sartin advancement, so this is already done for you. I would suggest you make use of and employ the Preceptor tool in determining which line is best to use. The Preceptor uses the 7 Primary factors to rate each line of a horse against its self and is much more proficient at rating a line than the old X and O's. The X & O's is subjective whereas the Preceptor is extremely much more accurate.No subjectivity and all the work is already done by the RDSS program and computer.


Good line hunting and picking.


Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Bill:
I appreciate your insight. It is a fact that the further back a line goes the percentage of winners decreases. I.e. more # 1 line win than # 2 etc. ,more #2 than #3 so forth. Sartin best of the last 3 comparable captures the highest percentage. I do go back further at times but wouldn't recommend that for beginners. But like you I have an awful lot of experience and even than its more a rarity than the norm.


Bill your so right about gathering your own records. Plus their more meaningful to the person and they remain in your brain housing group forever. Sartin said in so many words to never trust statistics unless their your own. I forget his exact quote but that's the gist of it.


BTY I hope your frisky ,feeling good and wish you the best of health.


Mitch44

[gptx]

Bill,

Thanks that is very helpful, and "and be consistent in your own work" is speaking loud and clear to me! Consistency has always been an issue for me. WAY too much over-analyzing causes me to jump around too much. Proper, consistent paceline selection will take a lot of the noise away I'm certain.



Mitch,

Thanks for your insight. I have already copied and pasted your turf, sloppy, off track comments into my paceline selection notes!

[Bill V.]

Hi GPTX

Thanks, It takes lots of practice and dedication to stay consistent.

The main reason I use FTL-Brohamer guidelines is that it forces me to
focus on the horse's real abilities,
If the horse ran a 0 race in the last line, I want to know why?
Brohamer's guidelines "the horse should show something "
is very useful

anyway, The RDSS built-in ability to model is a blessing and I can't thank
Ted enough

Mitch
Thank you, I am feeling well. I am looking forward to your derby final selections.
I will have to watch from my bed on Saturday but I will be able to follow along, and play on TVG

[Lt1]

Mitch and Bill have just about said it all. The only thing I would add is,as per the Doc, never rate a horse off a 0 line. I myself follow that advice while using the best of the last 3 perceptor at a comparable dist,surface etc.
Tim

[gptx]

Thanks Tim, I have learned a lot from searching and reading a lot of posts from you and Bill and Mitch and many others too.


It's really great seeing the unselfish willingness to help and share info. from everyone here and especially the Sartin veterans! I never met Doc or the Hat but I feel a connection and I think that is because of the sincere desire of folks here to help others grow and prosper with the methodology. Even though those men have passed on, their legacy lives, especially when it is shared as they did!


Bill, I want you to know that even though I have never met you either, I can tell from your posts that you are a great person and I am praying for your health to get better! I'm sure it's an off and on battle but hope you know that there are a lot of unknown people out here pulling for you!

[wallyHeitz]

I've read many followups, but I missed the definition of +, (+), 0 lines. Could someone please explain what they are exactly?

[tom]

From the Pacelines manual, page 46.....

[wallyHeitz]

Good stuff, thanks

[Lt1]

Wally several teaching members, with Docs' okay, also counted a race where the horse beat half the field as an acceptable line. I have adapted that approach since I rather err on the side of inclusion rather then exclusion. There are plenty of reasons to eliminate horses without strictly applying guidelines. Tom Brohamer was quick to point that out when applying his up close at the stretch to id contenders.
Tim

[thelyingthief]

what is FTL?

[Bill V.]

what is FTL?

FTL is not a what

He is a who, that made many post as a teaching member

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11449


Bill