Friday Night Race of Week - 06/16

[jms62]

This is a placeholder for this Fridays race...

[jms62]

Fridays race is a Starter Allowance second leg of the TVG 150 K guaranteed late pick 4.... Going forward I ask this question, is anyone strongly opposed to selection of a Madien race ?

Hollywood Park - June 16th, 2006 - Race 6
Estimated Local Post Time: 9:35 PM
Race Type: Starter Allowance
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Purse: $25,000
Distance:Six Furlongs
Surface: Dirt

Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Sure Thing Eva (FL) 4 Gelding 122 Aaron T. Gryder
2 Vermeil (KY) 5 Horse 122 Jon Kenton Court
3 Swiss Arrow (CA) 3 Gelding 119 Victor Espinoza
4 Coyote Fast (KY) 5 Horse 119 Martin Garcia
5 Hot Off the Bench (CA) 3 Gelding 119 David Cohen
6 Under House Arrest (CA) 4 Colt 117 Juan Ochoa
7 Li Bien (AZ) 3 Gelding 119 Corey S. Nakatani

[RichieP]

Hollywood - Friday - 6/16 - Race 6

6f

Projected Pace:

1c - 21.4 - # 5 - line 1
2c - 44.4 - # 4 - line 1
ft - 109.2 - # 4- line 1

matching lines these are the only lines that are left. I had to go deep for lines on the 6 but that is totally ok.

I use 6.2 seconds to subtract and add for each 1/2 furlong fwiw.

The heavy fav # 4 is legit and tough. I think the 6 might take him. 2 has to come from way way back.

My Bets:

$ 8.00 win - # 6 = $ 8.00
$ 3.00 ex box - 6-4 and 6-2 = $ 12.00

Total bet = $ 20.00

screen shot of original lines

good luck everyone!

Rich
JMS - any race is fine by me. it's all good

[lschofiel]

I totallly agree with your analysis Rich. I think the #4 will be very tough in here and see this race as 4,6,2,7.

[alydar_ David]

#4 Coyote Fast goes wire-to-wire as an odds on favorite.

*yawn*

[cprescigno]

I did it the Hat way again.
I get the 6 beating the 4 if the first fraction goes 21.7 or 21.8. I think both the 6 and the 3 will push the first fraction to faster than the 4 has run before and won the race. His best frist fraction is 21.9 not counting the turf race. Doesn't mean he can't run to a 21.7 or even 21.5. He's consistent. So my safety bet goes a 6-4 Exacta Box.

Win 6 $15
Ex Box 6-4 $10
Tri 6-4-2, 4-6-2

Projected Pace
21.7 44.3 110.1
Lines
3 - 21.5 44.7 111.0
4 - 21.9 44.3 110.3
6 - 21.8 44.3 109.7

If you go back on the 6 to the SA race 142 days with those fractions he beats the 4 also at SA same distance 6.5F. It all depends on whether the 4 can handle a fraction faster than 21.9 and still win. In his PP's of whch there aren't many when he isn't on top first and second fraction he doesn't win the race. I say he can't but the horse may say different. We'll see.
Charlie

[kiltman]

I know the 4 is tough and will probably win but Im going to take a shot on beating him with 1 yea the one. 6 and 7 . Hate 6/5 morning line horses.

[admin]

I will have to pass this one
The 4 gets the readouts but its a LRH
My other contenders are the
2 4 5 and 7
just can't seem to binder method this one

[jms62]

Shooting against the obvious

#7-10 to WIn
#2-10 to Win

1.00 Tri Key 7-2 /7-2-4-6

[gl45]

Win 2-6
Ex 1-4/2-6
Pino

[shoeless]

I will go with the 7.Jeff

[Cellarfunk]

The 4 is going to be tough to beat but...

6 and 1 had a chance

6 Win
1 4 6 EXBX

CFunk

[partsnut]

I Would Have To Agree With Jeff On This Race.
Here's What I Came Up With.
The Chart Below Is The Suggested Order Of Finish.
As You Can See, I Deviated From It Somewhat.

If I Decide To Bet This Race This Is How I Would Play It.

$ 10 Win (7)
$ 10 Win (6)
$ 2 Exacta Key - 7 With 6,5,4
$ 2 Exacta Key - 6 With 7,5,4

Total Bets = $ 32.00

[Forego]

Hi guys
just got in

i like the 2 here to win

exacta box 2-4-7

[Houndog]

Congratulations to JMS62, PINO, and FOREGO on a nice winner. PINO if you boxed your 1 and 2 you had a nice $118.00 exacta. The TRI with the favorite paid over $300.00 The #1 horse paid $28.60 to place. Good going guys.

[cprescigno]

I did it the Hat way again.
I get the 6 beating the 4 if the first fraction goes 21.7 or 21.8. I think both the 6 and the 3 will push the first fraction to faster than the 4 has run before and won the race. His best frist fraction is 21.9 not counting the turf race. Doesn't mean he can't run to a 21.7 or even 21.5. He's consistent. So my safety bet goes a 6-4 Exacta Box.

Win 6 $15
Ex Box 6-4 $10
Tri 6-4-2, 4-6-2

Projected Pace
21.7 44.3 110.1
Lines
3 - 21.5 44.7 111.0
4 - 21.9 44.3 110.3
6 - 21.8 44.3 109.7

If you go back on the 6 to the SA race 142 days with those fractions he beats the 4 also at SA same distance 6.5F. It all depends on whether the 4 can handle a fraction faster than 21.9 and still win. In his PP's of whch there aren't many when he isn't on top first and second fraction he doesn't win the race. I say he can't but the horse may say different. We'll see.
Charlie

Congratulations to the guys who had the 2 horse to win. He paid a nice price. You know it's a shame that I wasn't able to read this one right. I had the right scenario. The 3-4-6 set a fast first fraction, but I was overly concerned with the 4. Too intent on trying to beat the 4 at his own game instead of looking for a different game to beat him with. If I was better at using the Match Up at this point this race is a gimme. Not only should I have been concerned with whether the 4 could run to the faster first fraction but I should have also been looking to see if the 6 could handle it. Both horses couldn't handle the faster first fraction of 21.62 and 2nd call of 44.70. If I used the Match Up correctly once this happened you have to go to the Presser horses to win this race of which there were two. The 1 and 2 horses. The 2 was the better of the two horses. Jim probably just smiles when he sees a race like this one. He probably just sits back and figures out how much he has to bet to win the amount of money he wants to win. This race is just embarassing and tells me just how much more work I need to put in to get to the right answers. I guess after using the Match Up for about six weeks I can't expect a miracle like all of a sudden today I;m going to get smarter but this one should have been cake.
Just have to keep working at it.

Charlie

[shoeless]

great going to all who had it,Pino nice ex.

[admin]

Hi
Great job to the winners Forego Pino Jim
real nice
I am real happy that you hid the favorite
and Bet the race

I wimped out
I tend to in these type races Its always troubled me
I had the 2 but just had no feeling for it
No binder method this time

But seeing you guys attack this race was good for my
head

I also am very happy with the increasing activity
lets see if we can continue to grow each Friday

GS
Bill

[RichieP]

tremendous work

Jim
Pino
Forego

Jim you hit your own darned race!

I echo Charlie's thought . I have a LOT more understanding of the matchup to do before I can be consistently succesful. I can't narrow races to 3 horses and pick the wrong one's if I am gonna succeed.

that fav is still sucking wind ( and money) somewhere. lol

great hit guys!

Rich

[RichieP]

Binder is up next week as our host!

WHERE will he take us ??

:eek:


Ciao!
Richie

[admin]

Oh Boy :confused:
Any chance Philly will become a night track by next Friday

[RichieP]

just a little footnote here man.

Kiltman went all in on the 1 - " yea the 1" as he put it.

horse paid how much to place? $ 28.00 - are u serious!

Sharp **** Russ!
Rich

[gl45]

Are you guys game for MSW race. My turn next week.
Pino

[RichieP]

Are you guys game for MSW race. My turn next week.
Pino


Pino
just a quickie. Bill is gonna steer us next week and you are up the very next week paisan :)

Ciao
Richie

[gl45]

ooopsy