Why Horse Racing is Dying

[rdiam]

Why Horse Racing is Dying:

President's Day card at Santa Anita: more than half of the races have 5 entries BEFORE scratches...sad.

From Ken Massa (HTR): betting $1 on every horse during 2019 results in an ROI of 0.75 -- that is, a loss of 25 cents for every $1 bet. This is 50% higher than the traditional 17% takeout often quoted. How to reconcile?

According to Massa, the seeming anomaly can best be explained by the fact that the average winning horse pays "underlay" odds (where underlay odds are below those than a horse's true probability of winning). He uses an example of an 8 horse field, where the random probability of a horse winning is 0.125, so a "fair" payoff is 7-1 odds. At a 17% takeout, the "random" payout for a $2 win bet would be around $13.30. BUT, during 2019, the average payout on winners in an 8 horse field was only around $12 on a $2 bet, which calculates to a 0.75 ROI.

Bottom line, the winning percentage of favorites is approaching 40% (mostly due to small field sizes), and the "true" takeout is approaching 25%. Since horse race betting is a pari-mutuel game, profits to winners comes ONLY from losses by losers. The current structure of the game makes it almost impossible to continually attract "dumb" money, since this kind of bankroll is drastically depleted by such a prohibitive "true" takeout. PT Barnum might have once said "a sucker is born every minute", but horse racing is quickly running out of suckers.

Now many on this board like to say "just handicap and bet winners, don't worry about anything else and you will win $". The research by Ken Massa simply does not support this kind of thinking. To win at the current game, we need to use factors that are not part of the public domain, and structure bets intelligently. The "vig" in horse racing is currently higher than most are aware, and probably more difficult to overcome these days than in the past.

Richard

[RichieP]

Good post Richard. I have been a losing player for at least the past 6 years (reason enough for ME why I rarely wager anymore). Yea marriage and life events distract from the concentration necessary for ME to win but the game changed as far as things that I did to profit. prices on horses I spotted for win have dropped significantly erasing what was years ago a profitable profession to a negative return hobby today.

This is also one of the main reasons I have so much respect for guys like LT Tim, Mitch, Richie M, Bill V and others (The matchup guys who rarely post here)who are profiting in TODAYS racing environment.

Salute and all the best to all you cappers in todays environment who are successful!!

[Mitch44]

Richard you are correct about the percentage of favorites that are winning. What we have are small foaling rates each year, too many tracks competing for horses, small fields and essentially watered down racing.

I use to take $5.60 (9/5) but find that difficult anymore as they hammer horses down now. And even a good program like RDSS has difficulty getting the prices that Pace Handicapping received with Sartin many years ago.

To make a profit now a days one must pass races or be very selective in which races they play. Oh its definitely frustrating after putting the time into a race. Money management is even more critical than it was some years back.

Today the best races for good prices tend to be 3 year old races and the ugliest races on the card.

The proliferation of computers has also knocked the price down. Who can't afford a computer today? Recent form has always been a key factor in handicapping and with small fields everyone is looking at the same form horses.

I've been looking more at situational handicapping the pass few years and going against both the public and traditional handicapping. Such as horses with long layoffs(90 days or more) the diehards just won't play these because of the poor stats associated with them for winning, perhaps 90% against. That 90 % is for a nothing burger stat which can drastically be improved upon with adding things to that burger. Ditto for FTS etc. One can get that stat up to 25 % or more by refinement, plus one of those can make a huge difference in one's bottom line and erase many losers.

I recently said in a post it pays for one to know which races they have a higher win percentage in verses the ones they don't. It also pays to work on your weaknesses or shortcomings. I take pride in being able to play all types of races, all surfaces and all distances. This is where you can make the greatest gain, not in the area where your already good but in the area where your poor.

At one time you could just stick to your areas of expertise but in todays game the public has caught up with you. My ability today would have surpassed most of Sartin teachers back in the 90's but not so in todays game. Adapt and overcome or perish.

In todays game if you want to know about the unknown than investigate the unknown. Do the work, studies and research to stay ahead of the crowd which has always been the roadmap to follow for success.

Mitch44

[ScottB]

On the east coast favorites are not winning @ 40%. The bottom line is you have to be a spot player to get the odds you want.

Take out on win is irrelevent because you know what the odds are before you bet. Even with exactas and daily doubles you know approx what they will pay.

I have never liked California racing.

[Mitch44]

Here's a horse off 176 days that I liked in the 7th FG today. I was on the phone with Lt1 talking about some recent changes in racing with Bris stuff.

3 Stop Shoppin Tammy 7/2 off 176 days

I told him I liked this horse that was off over 90 days. Bottom line was he didn't meet my requirements for odds as he was 1/1 at 1 minute to post so I passed on him. He won and paid $ 6.60. The odds went up but still the risk reward did not meet my criteria so I passed.


Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Here's a horse off 184 days that I played & paid $9.00.

Now I took a less odds than normal on this one because there were only 6 horses in the race. Good price for a 6 horse field.


Mitch44

<table class="toteboard" id="rbOutput"><tbody class="ng-scope" id="rbRows" ng-controller="rtbController"><tr id="1d65f-1213f" ng-repeat="wager in wagers"><td class="alignL"> COMPLETED: <!-- end ngIf: !wager.isFailed --> <!-- ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> 1d65f-1213f<!-- end ngIf: !(wager.isConditional && wager.status == 'OPEN') --> <!-- ngIf: wager.isCancellable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> FG (https://www.twinspires.com/php/rtb/toteresult_launcher.php?track=FG&race=8&type=1)
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td><!-- ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> #8 (https://www.twinspires.com/php/rtb/toteresult_launcher.php?track=FG&race=8&type=1)
<!-- end ngIf: wager.resultsAvailable --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.resultsAvailable --> </td><td class="ng-binding"><!-- ngIf: wager.isLeaderBoard -->$4 Win</td><td class="ng-binding">1</td><td class="alignL faded">none <!-- ngIf: wager.isConditional && wager.isLeaderBoard --> </td><td class="amount bet ng-binding"> $4.00</td><td class="amount return"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> $18.00
<!-- end ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable && (wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9) --> <!-- ngIf: !wager.payoutsAvailable || (wager.frozenWager == 'true' && CSSDLength != 9) --> </td><td class="amount wonlost" ng-show="wager.conditionalWager == 'true' || wager.frozenWager == 'false' || CSSDLength == 9"><!-- ngIf: wager.payoutsAvailable -->+ $14.00

</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Lt1]

Way to go Mitch.
Tim

[rdiam]

ScottB:

To say "takeout is irrelevant" indicates you do not understand math. The higher the takeout, the fewer "price" horses you will find that fit your odds criteria. Raise the takeout, and 4-1 horses that you would ordinarily bet now become 3-1 or even 2-1 on the board. Takeout affects every bettor's bottom line.

Richard

[Mitch44]

Takeout without a doubt does effect a players bottom line and what they receive back. However it only effects a WINNERS bottom line, like yours Richard. If you can't get the winner than the takeout is irrelevant.

Know your capabilities and limitations( strengths & weakness), decide what you'll take and design your bet to take advantage of your strengths and the public weaknesses. Despite the low odds horses winning there are still lots of opportunities and the public still make mistakes every day. Know your enemy, study them. What kind of frequent mistakes do they make?

Mitch44

[Bill V.]

First off Thank you to Richie P for the compliment
on being able to win TODAY.
To Richard I will only speak from what I see.
At Del Mar They only show a few tracks for waging. The crowd is good but the room is small. There are a few hardy souls who sit outside but it is very chilly up on the third floor with winds coming off the ocean.
The crowd is almost 100% over 55 years old. Back when Richie and I
played at the Meadowlands we were in our late 30's and early 40's. We had lots of company in our age group. That is not the case today.
When I started and today I worry very little about takeout
What I see is racing as being dying from poor management for the last
20 years, They had a following but time has passed them by
I had 2 good days playing pick 4's and doubles this weekend, I was unable to go today.
But my buddy went and was going to play for me as a partner.
He played an early Pick 4 at Oaklawn, We lost , He said he left early.He said
it was too depressing seeing so few others there

[ScottB]

Takeout without a doubt does effect a players bottom line and what they receive back. However it only effects a WINNERS bottom line, like yours Richard. If you can't get the winner than the takeout is irrelevant.

Know your capabilities and limitations( strengths & weakness), decide what you'll take and design your bet to take advantage of your strengths and the public weaknesses. Despite the low odds horses winning there are still lots of opportunities and the public still make mistakes every day. Know your enemy, study them. What kind of frequent mistakes do they make?

Mitch44

Mitch

I normally bet horses between 4-1 and 8-1 but occasionally I will bet a horse at lower odds but try not to go less than 5-2 except for a lock winner like Maximum Security.

If I like a horse going off 4-1 how does the takeout affect me? I know if Im betting $100 win Im going to make $400 if the horse wins.

Takeout on exotics where you have no idea of the payout is a problem.

[ScottB]

Hey Bill

The Meadowlands will be hosting a winter thoroughbred meet this year between Oct 2nd and Dec 2nd.

Monmouth Park applied for the racing dates and it was approved. The number of racing dates hasnt been announced yet.

[Mitch44]

Discipline in betting can and does reduce the effect of the takeout. At times we must take what the enemy gives us. Perhaps we can create an Exacta or P3 etc. to overcome the low odds that exists. We must always ask;how can I make money out of this race and capitalize on my handicapping? What is the risk verses reward for this situation? We also need to try and get good returns for little outlay or extension of our capital.

I agree that takeout for Exotics is a problem, particularity in Tri's, however if you have a key horse its worth the risk. The public make more mistakes on combination type bets (exotics) than they do on straight win bets. For one reason their too win oriented and never consider an improving horse going off at long odds, they also don't have the guts to pull the trigger on long odds horses.

Thinking of horses other than win can boost one's bankroll and lessen the takeout. Also no one that hits a good payoff whether a longshot or a good exotic bet ever thinks about takeout.

Sounds like you have an abundance of discipline ScottB, it'll serve you well and prevent runouts while increasing your bottom line. Good luck.

Mitch44

[The Pook]

One sure thing in horse racing, is that horses racing against each other, race against each other the same way they have always raced against each other. Only the names of the horses change.

And with that, I’m good.

Empty grandstands? So what. It’s mostly done from home now.
Small fields? So what. Maybe some tracks should close.
West coast racing in a funk? So what. Other tracks like WO are booming.
Lower prices? So what. Be more discerning, more patient, more curious.
Racing is not like it was when we were younger? So what. Adapt.

Why should racing not change? Everything changes.
Racing is dying again? So what. See above.

Pook

[Mitch44]

Your zeroed in right on target Mike.(Pook) Its up to us to adapt and overcome. We do have many choices such as which track we play or the size field we play etc. This time of the year I prefer OP,FG,GP and Tam.

Even at those tracks with larger fields some races just aren't worth the risk. Sartin had it right many years ago with races that have too many unknown factors.

Overwhelmingly one need only look into a mirror to find the real culprit or the true problem. Not many can take that look and render a true assessment, therefore nothing changes. But that's OK as we need their money and may they maintain that stubborn resistance to change.Keep those old programs and drive that model T, we'll see you in our rear view mirror and back up camera with 180 degree sensors.

Mitch44

[ScottB]

I guarantee anyone who is complaining about the takeout strictly on win bets is struggling to stay in the black.

[partsnut]

Why Horse Racing is Dying:

President's Day card at Santa Anita: more than half of the races have 5 entries BEFORE scratches...sad.

From Ken Massa (HTR): betting $1 on every horse during 2019 results in an ROI of 0.75 -- that is, a loss of 25 cents for every $1 bet. This is 50% higher than the traditional 17% takeout often quoted. How to reconcile?

According to Massa, the seeming anomaly can best be explained by the fact that the average winning horse pays "underlay" odds (where underlay odds are below those than a horse's true probability of winning). He uses an example of an 8 horse field, where the random probability of a horse winning is 0.125, so a "fair" payoff is 7-1 odds. At a 17% takeout, the "random" payout for a $2 win bet would be around $13.30. BUT, during 2019, the average payout on winners in an 8 horse field was only around $12 on a $2 bet, which calculates to a 0.75 ROI.

Bottom line, the winning percentage of favorites is approaching 40% (mostly due to small field sizes), and the "true" takeout is approaching 25%. Since horse race betting is a pari-mutuel game, profits to winners comes ONLY from losses by losers. The current structure of the game makes it almost impossible to continually attract "dumb" money, since this kind of bankroll is drastically depleted by such a prohibitive "true" takeout. PT Barnum might have once said "a sucker is born every minute", but horse racing is quickly running out of suckers.

Now many on this board like to say "just handicap and bet winners, don't worry about anything else and you will win $". The research by Ken Massa simply does not support this kind of thinking. To win at the current game, we need to use factors that are not part of the public domain, and structure bets intelligently. The "vig" in horse racing is currently higher than most are aware, and probably more difficult to overcome these days than in the past.

Richard


Richard,



I applaud your post. It is very meaningful and insightful. It verifies what I have been saying about multiple horse win betting and horizontal types of bets.
Hopefully, this information will sink in to those that don't have a clue.


I believe rebates and contest play can help offset and lower the 20% "Vig" on average of all pools combined. This was stated by Barry Meadow, who in my opinion is one of the most credible and smartest people in the game. He is the consummate horse player. I just purchased his new 445 page book "The Skeptical Handicapper". The book was compiled with statistical data supplied by Ken Massa who is a very skillful player, computer programmer and statistician.



I myself have decided to go with contest play I find it to be more enjoyable, less stressful and more gratifying.
If you enjoy handicapping as much as I do you should always look to increase your knowledge base. It never hurts to learn something new.
I am over 80 years of age and am still learning.


We all have our good and bad days. Today was a good day for me.
I kept my winning streak going in the "Live It Up Challenge" where I am currently in 7th position.. I invested a total of $21.35 and came back with a $169.00 entry into to Sundays NHC qualifier and made an additional $9.00 in a small contest placing 2nd. To me, that's good value and great entertainment.

Here's what it looks like. No BS.

[shoeless]

Nice job Parts

[partsnut]

Nice job Parts


Thanks Jeff.:D

[Lt1]

Way to go Bill.
Tim

[partsnut]

Way to go Bill.
Tim


Tim, Thanks.

[Mitch44]

Congrats Bill, nice work.


Mitch44

[partsnut]

Congrats Bill, nice work.


Mitch44


Mitch, Thanks.

[rmath]

Way to go Parts.
Keep up the good work.
Rmath

[partsnut]

Way to go Parts.
Keep up the good work.
Rmath


Thanks, Rich

[rmath]

Rdiam and Parts.
I do not believe that racing is dying, but is only changing , which is progress ( I guess )
I have gone to playing the P-4 , P-5, and the P-6.
Many of my hits are on small tickets like yesterday where all 6 of the winners were in my top two contenders. So even with several favorites on a ticket it is possible to make a decent profit if you pick and choose your playable days.
Rmath

[Lt1]

Well put Richie.One must be very selective of races and tracks to play.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Rdiam and Parts.
I do not believe that racing is dying, but is only changing , which is progress ( I guess )
I have gone to playing the P-4 , P-5, and the P-6.
Many of my hits are on small tickets like yesterday where all 6 of the winners were in my top two contenders. So even with several favorites on a ticket it is possible to make a decent profit if you pick and choose your playable days.
Rmath

Very well put Richie
I have gone almost 100% to Pick 3' doubles and pick 4'sand Pick 5's
I play with 2 or 3 partners, our tickets are in the $25- $35 range
with 3 guys that means about 8.5 bucks a head.on the low end and 10.5 for a spread.
Let the chips fall. We are winning as you are too.

[partsnut]

Rdiam and Parts.
I do not believe that racing is dying, but is only changing , which is progress ( I guess )
I have gone to playing the P-4 , P-5, and the P-6.
Many of my hits are on small tickets like yesterday where all 6 of the winners were in my top two contenders. So even with several favorites on a ticket it is possible to make a decent profit if you pick and choose your playable days.
Rmath


Rich, Actually the game is changing as well as declining because over the past few years the total national handle has steadily declined, The reasons being many players choose to play from the comfort of their home. As well the short fields are not very appealing to many players. Another reason would be the cut back of racing days at many tracks which is caused by many small farms failing financially. This in itself cuts back on the number of horses that are available nationally. It is also well known that the 20% average "vig" on all bets adds insult to injury. It is obvious to me as well and many others as to what is happening to the game we love.



I am not disputing your method of betting. If it works for you that's all that matters. It is possible you are the exception to the rule. However, in the "long term" your results may tell a different story. For me, contest playing is the wave of the future. The risks are a lot less with a smaller "Vig", the rewards are much greater and It's is affordable to most, depending on an individuals degree of participation. A talented and strategic player can make a lot more money playing contests then trying to eek out a minimal profit overall playing on daily basis. Take a look at what the top 70 finishers earned in the NHC final. I listed the link today on a reply to Ted Craven . See "Darmars" post about the NHC.

Also while your at it, take look at the Breeders Cup Betting Challenge. There's gold in them there hills.:D It's all there for the taking.
Who among us is up for the challenge?

[For The Lead]

I seldom visit the site anymore due to my current state of health. It seems I stopped by at the right time, however.

I started keeping a database in 1997 and kept it for many, many years, as some of you may already know.

Starting with my first year, one of the things I wanted to know was exactly what the original poster talked about.

Although the original poster gave the stat base on $1 wagered, I did my research based on a $2 wager. It all amounts to the same thing.

I can tell you that the information provided for year 2019 is NOT new. It did not happen all of a sudden out of the blue.

In each and every year starting back in 1997, the return by betting $2 on each horse has been $1.53 (rounding either up or down).

So although I am in agreement with the original posters assessment for the year 2019, based on an outside source's work, this has been the case for more than 20 years. It is NOTHING new.

Be it smaller fields today or larger fields 20 years ago, the end result for this particular stat remains the same.

Thanks for your attention and good luck to all of you.

[Bill V.]

Thanks for writing FTL
Its nice to see you feeling up to posting
The best to you

Bill

[rmath]

FTL, I agree that racing has changed a lot in the past 20+ years.
We as handicappers have to adapt with these changes, be it thru contest play or different types of bets.
For me multi race bets on small wagers is what appeals to me.
I wish everyone success in however they choose to play.
Good luck to all.

Rmath

[winning]

I had some success in handicapping contests. RDSS is a great program, best of luck, and good health to everyone.

[shoeless]

FTL

Nice to see you post and wish you the best always

Jeff