Intuition and the 1st Call Projected Pace

[RichieP]

I have been noticing things while learning the matchup's foundation of projecting pace for today's race.

This is going to make NO sense at all but if you keep an open mind long enough to try it some really weird stuff might show itself at the tracks you play.

FOCUS on races where you CAN project an "ON THE LEAD" 1c and 2c pace by a horse or horses.

Take your 1c "on the lead" pace and starting with the first horse go all the way to the BOTTOM of his pp's. Now here comes the **** that makes NO sense.

1) look at every race starting from the bottom up where the 1c matches today's projected. FIRST CALL.

2) FOCUS on the horse's BREAK and 1c positions in those races and then moving from 1c to 2c-stretch call-finish FOCUS on how the horse REACTS to that 1c pace. Just watch him and see what he does.

Does he COMPETE well?
Does he FIGHT if he runs early?
Does he ATTACK from 1c to 2c ?
Does he get discouraged or outrun and just give up?

By taking some REAL time on this and THEN moving to the rest of working the race some stuff gets planted in our heads that might help us come final decision time ok?

It's really weird man. Oh and NOTHING works all the time.

Richie

[RichieP]

here is a race to throw out there. It is a 6f race.

The 1c on the lead pace is kinda easy. last line on the 1 horse at 22.0 He also has the 2c on the lead at 44.4. ok for a final time that matches the 1's last race is 6.5f. Let's use the stretch call in that last race which gives us a
6f time of 1:10.00 ok?

Proj pace:
1c - 22.0
2c - 44.4
ft - 1:10.00

I am gonna list each horses pp's from the racing form which is easy to see.If you are interested just scroll thru the horses 1c times and when they match or are very close ( within 1/5) make some mental notes on them from the START of the race going forward.

What do they do at the BREAK?
The 1c?
The 2c?
the stretch call?

AFTER that then look at the pace of race times for those races that match BOTH 1c and 2c projected pace.

Now when you get to matching or comparing the times maybe some little "mental notes" about their reactions come up.

It really is fascinating me so thats why I am throwing the race out there ok?

I am a total novice with this but take my matchup work serious. Throwing this race and my weird observations "out there" will hopefully help me in the long run ESPECIALLY if feedback comes opening my mind even more :)

ok we have out projected pace - small field - here are the pp's

horse 1 - our projected pace horse from the last line:

[RichieP]

the 2 Horse

[RichieP]

ok the # 3 was scratched.

here is the 4 horse

[RichieP]

the 5 horse

[RichieP]

the 6 horse

[RichieP]

lastly the 7 horse. I 'll wait to put the result chart up in case you want to mill around a little with the race

ok

Richie

[RichieP]

In case anyone is following this the ACTUAL pace of yesterday's race?

1c - 22.00
2c - 45.00
ft - 1:10.1

now look at the projected pace. Scary ha?

See what happens when we "backed up" the 1's last line to the stretch call
6f time?

I'll put the result chart up tonight.

Happy Father's Day
Rich

[shoeless]

Richie,There are a few things to consider.

1)If you go all the way through the PP'S you could be looking at races from last year.I still believe you need some kind of cutoff point


2)I posted this in another section I know the Hat doesnt look at variants of the track but he is one in a million that can do it.You should be wary of horses that run these times on a fast racing surface,it could make a difference.Jeff

[RichieP]

Result Chart

[VoodooFan]

Wander Time is a need-to-lead horse. To win, his past performance shows he must "break" no less 2nd out the gate, get the lead at the first call and then go wire-to-wire. Way to the Top will get the lead, Wander should be dead. Is this horse a "default" winner? How did this horse win the race? :confused: Thanks

[THE HAT]

Here is some Voodoo for you.

Here is the way I would match this race:
New York Token is an Early horse and should take the lead in 22
Way To The Top is an Early horse and should be second.
Wander Time is Early, but has three lines showing were he can Press. His break position also shows that
he can pass horses. (Look at the third line.). I used his second line back and have him third behind the two front runners.

The 5, & 7 horses are sustained and shows nothing is their recent races. They are eliminated from the
race. Skip Fighter is a Sustained Presser and should be fifth, which eliminates him from win contention.

We are left with three horses up front. Wander Time is in third position, but will move to second position, as the two Early horse kill each other Early, I don’t believe the half mile will be run in a 44.4, because the fight for the lead in the first call. I give Wander Time a 109.4. from the six furlong time of his six and one half furlong race. This makes him faster at the final time and has a chance to win the race.

[VoodooFan]

Wow, Absolutely Unbelievable!!! That was excellent "Voodoo" Mr. Bradshaw. This is the kind of race that makes me wonder why I am not progressing with the MatchUp. You gave this NEED-TO-LEAD horse a "shot" because he Pressed 3 times and was in the money each time.....so are you saying to "look" for this ability in wire to wire winners and that this type of horse shows he can press, stay up close, and/or passing horses, be "in the money" at the end, with, of course, the right fractions? This looks like one of those races where you can predict or "Voodoo" when a horse is gonna change his style. Many Thanks again, I'll be practicing hard and studying on this insight.:D