General question about layoffs

[Bill Lyster]

I understand that regularly spaced works are a good thing and the longer the better (4f and up).

My question has to do with the number of works after a layoff (over 90 days) or the number of works required to get a horse back into racing form after even longer or shorter layoffs.

Usually RDSS covers the 5 or 6 most recent works, if they have that many. So at what number of works should be allow a horse to remain a contender - 3, 4 , 5? (assuming consistent spacing and no large gaps between works?)

Also, lets say a horse is off 90 days and coming back to its normal surface and distance. How important is it to note the number of days between last race and first returning workout? Is it enough that the first work matches the horses demonstrated run frequency or should there be more frequent works to help let us know the horse could be a factor today?

Many thanks,

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. Part of the problem with work outs is the trainers work their horses off track where many of those workouts go unrecorded. I, myself, put more weight on whether the trainer is one whose record indicates he/she can and does bring horses back successfully after a long lay off. I also check to see if the horses pps show that it has won off a layoff before. If the answer is yes for the trainer and the readouts show a top 3 tier rank plus corollary support and decent odds I have no problem wagering on the horse.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Tim, I pretty much follow those guidelines as well. And I understand what you are saying about off track works too.

I have been looking a lot at Tampa Bay and you will see horses off say 180 days with workouts starting 70 days ago with gaps of 7-10 days with no misses up until the date of the race. No problem with them.

Its the off 180 days with workouts starting 30 days, ago, then 23 days, then 16 days - in other words three works then a race. Is three enough to get them race ready or should we require "X" more?

Here is a Chad Brown first timer, with no questions about works IMO

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[Bill Lyster]

Mighty Road did not win however.

[Lt1]

I remember Brohamer reminding folks to be flexible with workouts since there are times when the clockers miss one. Also Scott had a pretty good work out regime in his book How Your Horse Will Run Today. I have found myself to be a little more flexible with his 5f guidelines since horses trained by Brown,Pletcher and other top trainers tend not to show 5f works. I also have records of trainers who win with horses showing no workouts or very short work outs since their last race regardless of the time elasped.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks again Tim, I will pull that book and read up on what Mr. Scott said.

[Mitch44]

There is no really specific rule to workouts because of the human factor involved.

Every trainer has their own beliefs and methods. An example is John Servis who rarely shows a fast workout, but he hides their form by running them very fast late within the workout, either early or late. Due to the length of the workout say 8F the works appear to be very slow. Baffert always work his horses very fast, their not as fast as they seem because SA track is a very fast track. Actually almost all trainers in Cailf. tend to work horses fast of all classes as compared to trainers from the East Coast area. That fast workout pattern may change because they now have a slower and deeper surface at SA to prevent breakdowns, not as deep or slower as eastern tracks but a change. Smart trainers will adapt and the incompetent will leave their race on the track in the AM.

Some workout their horses exactly every 7 days etc. One trainer is reported to say upon arriving at the barn early one morning and learning is horse had died, to which he said;"That's such a shame because today was his work day."

After a long layoff their required to have at least one workout and with many that's all they'll show.Many trainers and owners have access to off track facilities to train their horses That includes swimming pools, tracks, starting gates etc. Their true form really belongs to the connections.

Most people fail to realize that any horse capable of running in a race from a long layoff probably has been training for 2 to 3 months. Even very slow one and two mile daily training adds greatly to their form and most horses do this daily except on days when they work fast for a timed workout, which is usually to judge where their at.

Sartin always used and most experts agree that any horse that is cape able of recording a 12 second per furlong work is in form. I.e. 36 for 3 F , 48 for 4F, and 60 or 1 minute for 5F. Now when one looks at this the 3 F in 36 seems or appears to be much faster but it isn't and the longer the workout close to 12 seconds per F the better. I.e. the 4 & 5 F is better than the 3F etc.in the above example. In other words it holds its speed longer. I have always used this as a rough guide. Note: 12 seconds per furlong equals 55.00 feet per second.

It also goes without saying that classier horses have speed to spare and generally have faster workouts. Also take notice to a horse that shows a very good workout that never has before. Some even work or blown them out the same day as their race to clear their lungs.

I don't generally look at workouts as a major handicapping factor, their preferred surface, distance, class placement and past demonstrated performance for me are more important.

Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Tim and Mick;

Thanks again and especially for the reference to William Scott's book "How Will Your Horse Run Today". After re-reading the part about 5 furlong works and what constitutes "Up Close" its no wonder that the early Sartin teaching members adopted much of what is in this book.

I will be reading this book from start to finish this weekend to reinforce much of the way I view contenders. I would recommend it.

[mowens33]

For non-Maidens:

After a layoff that’s greater than 90 days the first thing I look for is has the horse won off the layoff in the past. The more the better! I know with most PP you can’t see all the past races, but in my case I use formulator so I can see the horse’s full history.

I will than look at the trainer’s history and see how they do with this type. I like to see 20% or greater, but if the horse has a history of winning off the layoff, I will accept lower.

I will than look at the workout routine, I like to see 3 to 4 works with good spacing, with at least one 5F work. I am not overly concerned with the speed (faster is better).

I'v had some decent longshot winners using this process with older horses 7 or above.

Maiden are a whole other story.
Mike

[Lt1]

Bill when it comes to being up close at stretch I have gone with Tom Brohamers' numbers
of 33/4 lengths in sprints and 5 lengths in a route. Just keep in mind to be flexible not rigid on these numbers since they are only guidelines. It is better to err on the side of inclusion since there are other factors that will cause a horse to be a toss or downgraded.
Tim

[omar]

My belief is this: on the dirt long layoffs are the kiss of death. Even the best horses on the ground can't find a win following their Breeders Cup wins coming back in January or February the following year. If the best horses can't do it what makes you think ordinary horses will. There's only a handful of horses that specialize in that department but unless they show it in their pp's, stay away.
On the turf I ignore layoffs because these types invariably come back running. I've seen this year after year for the last 45 years. People still won't play these horses. If you eliminate a horse on the grass because it didn't race recently, do it at your own risk. Hey don't take my word for it, do your own research on equibase, the full charts are FREE. CLASS is also very important on the grass, sprint pr routes. On 4/5 in last race at GP #11 blew up the tote board with the most back class in race running 2nd.
As far as works are concerned I specifically look for sharp fast works in races for 3yos following their last race for FORM REVERSALS (BIG BOUNCE) as long as they don't show it in their previous works. For examples of this look at the 1st races at GP on 3/14 and 3/15 on the winners, one a FTS paying $85 and the other $36.
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[Bill Lyster]

Thank you all for your inputs. Food for many thoughts going forward.

Here is an observation related to first time starters. RDSS on the entries screen has a column labeled WR which is a workout rating. In a race with several FTS horses a really big number in this column (over 100 usually and 10-20 points higher than any other FTS is a sign of peak readiness for a first time out score.

[barryt]

Bill re Browns FTS Mighty road. The lengthening of days between workouts is disturbing.

[omar]

48807
Look at todays OP race 11. Note the 2 fast 5f works by the 3&9, both trained by Bret W Calhoun. Do you see how the 3 improved after his work on 12/7 plus he's out of Storm Cat a notorious off track sire or broodmare sire.
Look at the pp's. It's right there in b&w highlighted in red.
I played 'em both. 3 wins at 46/1. See my previous post.

[omar]

Someone once said "give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, teach a man to fish and he'll eat for a lifetime".
I gave you the map (insight) on how to find these types of horses and if you don't look you won't find them. I'm not going to give you (post) the horse.

[Bill Lyster]

Bill re Browns FTS Mighty road. The lengthening of days between workouts is disturbing.

Barry, to what race are you referring?

[CheckMark]

My belief is this: on the dirt long layoffs are the kiss of death. Even the best horses on the ground can't find a win following their Breeders Cup wins coming back in January or February the following year. If the best horses can't do it what makes you think ordinary horses will. There's only a handful of horses that specialize in that department but unless they show it in their pp's, stay away.
On the turf I ignore layoffs because these types invariably come back running. I've seen this year after year for the last 45 years. People still won't play these horses. If you eliminate a horse on the grass because it didn't race recently, do it at your own risk. Hey don't take my word for it, do your own research on equibase, the full charts are FREE. CLASS is also very important on the grass, sprint pr routes. On 4/5 in last race at GP #11 blew up the tote board with the most back class in race running 2nd.
As far as works are concerned I specifically look for sharp fast works in races for 3yos following their last race for FORM REVERSALS (BIG BOUNCE) as long as they don't show it in their previous works. For examples of this look at the 1st races at GP on 3/14 and 3/15 on the winners, one a FTS paying $85 and the other $36.
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48792

If you purchase “Finding The Hidden Horse” by Conrad Crease, this basic concept can let you find longshot winners by looking at workouts, troubled trips and drop back in distance. He also suggested to look for back class, early speed, jockey and trainer stats. Just like Omar said it is simple to look for Longshots this way.

[Lefty]

I don't worry about layoffs. It's all about the numbers for me. I catch some nice longshots that way. Bottom line, many ways to skin he parimutuel machines...

[omar]

Bill Lyster i forgot to mention in my text to you that the 8 in race 1 at GP today was also a layoff horse on the grass. Only start was on 12/1/19 (4 months) on the dirt and in a sprint. I don't care, that's why he paid $22.20! Maidens, love 'em.

[barryt]

Barry, to what race are you referring?

Mighty Road you showed as an example in post #3

Some where else you said Pletcher brown don’t work 5 F
Here’s a race 11 at GP today#6 Varanasi for Pletcher
April 4 5f101.1
March 28 5f100.4
March 20 5f 101
March 13 5f 100

[barryt]

Ps Varanasi won at 13-1 beating his entrymate for a $2 exa of $126
Oops 12-1 was 13-1 when they crossed the wire��

[Lt1]

Barry it was me who pointed out that most Brown and Pletcher won't show 5f works. I didn't say that they never use 5f works. In general their horses, as well as other leading trainers, show a long string of 4f works. The pattern shown for Mighty road is very rare for Pletcher. I was pointing this out because if one uses Scotts' workout requirements to the letter which included a 5f from a lay off work they would knock a horse on the recency factor. Todays' training regiments have changed requiring an adjustment to those guidelines.
Tim

[barryt]

Check the WOs on KUCHEN R5 @ WRD in McS 7.5 K
07Apr Wrd 5f ft 1:05© H9/9 29Mar Wrd 4f ft :48ª Hg5/18 21Mar Wrd 4f ft :53« H35/35 07Mar Wrd 3f ft :37 B3/9 29Feb Wrd 3f ft :38¨ H15/20 16Feb RP 3f ft :40« H3/315Nov'19 RP 3f ft :36ª Hg3/11 14Nov'19 RP 3f ft :38¨ Hg9/13 02Nov'19 RP 4f ft :51© Hg53/62 15Oct'19 RP 4f ft :50ª H12/20 05Oct'19 RP 3f ft :36 H3/23 28Sep'19 RP 3f ft :3

Paid $90 to win
Look at trainer and jockey both ofers Buehrer Mark W (21 0-5-1 0%) CUNNINGHAM TRAVIS (33 0-2-4 0%)
And by the way exa with 3/5 fav paid 280 .i only played win and exa as a place with 3/5 shot

[barryt]

Barry it was me who pointed out that most Brown and Pletcher won't show 5f works. I didn't say that they never use 5f works. In general their horses, as well as other leading trainers, show a long string of 4f works. The pattern shown for Mighty road is very rare for Pletcher. I was pointing this out because if one uses Scotts' workout requirements to the letter which included a 5f from a lay off work they would knock a horse on the recency factor. Todays' training regiments have changed requiring an adjustment to those guidelines.
Tim
Eloquently said and I agree. I still think that when those trainers show the 5f wo it means something extra.

[Lt1]

Barry that's would seem to be a logical assumption.
Tim