rdiam
06-18-2020, 06:48 PM
Once you have downloaded your data, picked your contenders/pacelines, and surveyed your computer output...then what? Here is a useful exercise to help organize your thoughts and intelligently construct your bets:
First, assign a letter grade to each horse in the race, in descending order of appeal:
As: Main contenders, likely winners or horses that your methodology finds and the public will miss. Usually end up with between 1-3 As in a race. A standout A can be often used as a "single" in horizontal bets.
Bs: Backup contenders, next most likely to win
Optional: Cs: marginal contenders who cannot be tossed
Optional: NTW: horses deemed "not to win" but could finish in the money
Optional: Xs: Eliminations to win
At a minimum, pick out your As and Bs
Next:
Classify the race according to how competitive the field is today. At a minimum, use 2 classifications of the race: predictable OR wide open. If you are having trouble at this stage, classify the race as wide open if the ML favorite is listed at 5/2 or higher, and as predictable is the ML favorite is listed at 2-1 or lower.
Better still, try to use 4 categories: chalky, predictable, wide open, and chaos. Here are the definitions:
Chalky: likely to be won be top 2-3 favorites, and exacta to contain top 2-3 favorites as well
Predictable: public odds will have the race fairly accurate, winner likely to come from top 2-3 favorites, but may need to go deeper in vertical exotics
Wide open: likely to be won by horse OUTSIDE the top 2-3 favorites, but might use top 2-3 favorites to hedge win bets and ALSO underneath in vertical exotics
Chaos: lots of unknowns, FTS, 2TS, 3TS, cripples, layoff horses, foreign horses.
Now combine the 2 steps:
Chalky races: key As on top, look for singles in horizontal bets
Predictable races: key As on top, include Bs underneath in verticals
Wide open: key Bs on top, hedge with As top and bottom
Chaos: key As and Bs top and bottom, perhaps include Cs if betting horizontals
Good luck
Richard
First, assign a letter grade to each horse in the race, in descending order of appeal:
As: Main contenders, likely winners or horses that your methodology finds and the public will miss. Usually end up with between 1-3 As in a race. A standout A can be often used as a "single" in horizontal bets.
Bs: Backup contenders, next most likely to win
Optional: Cs: marginal contenders who cannot be tossed
Optional: NTW: horses deemed "not to win" but could finish in the money
Optional: Xs: Eliminations to win
At a minimum, pick out your As and Bs
Next:
Classify the race according to how competitive the field is today. At a minimum, use 2 classifications of the race: predictable OR wide open. If you are having trouble at this stage, classify the race as wide open if the ML favorite is listed at 5/2 or higher, and as predictable is the ML favorite is listed at 2-1 or lower.
Better still, try to use 4 categories: chalky, predictable, wide open, and chaos. Here are the definitions:
Chalky: likely to be won be top 2-3 favorites, and exacta to contain top 2-3 favorites as well
Predictable: public odds will have the race fairly accurate, winner likely to come from top 2-3 favorites, but may need to go deeper in vertical exotics
Wide open: likely to be won by horse OUTSIDE the top 2-3 favorites, but might use top 2-3 favorites to hedge win bets and ALSO underneath in vertical exotics
Chaos: lots of unknowns, FTS, 2TS, 3TS, cripples, layoff horses, foreign horses.
Now combine the 2 steps:
Chalky races: key As on top, look for singles in horizontal bets
Predictable races: key As on top, include Bs underneath in verticals
Wide open: key Bs on top, hedge with As top and bottom
Chaos: key As and Bs top and bottom, perhaps include Cs if betting horizontals
Good luck
Richard