Every selector needs a high-price winner now and then

[ScottB]

When Ray Taulbot was writing for American Turf Monthly he posted a long shot method I have used over the years with good success.

Long Shot Odds Angle:

1. The horse must have moved up in class last start.

2. The horse must have started at a major track within the past 30 days.

3. The horse must have finished in the money next-to-last race or must have been running first, second or third at the stretch call no more than 3 lengths off the leader.

4. The horse's odds in the most recent race must have been 10-1 or higher and be two times higher than the horses odds next-to-last race.

5. Today the horse must be entered in the same class as last race or dropping down. The odds must be 14-1 or higher.

I am typically more liberal with the 14-1 rule and more stringent with the 30 day rule.

Bingo, July 4th, 2020 Laurel Park Race 11

#6 Crazy Kater 25.00 11.40 6.20

[gandalf380]

how many horses qualified that did not win?

[ScottB]

how many horses qualified that did not win?


I can only tell you that I cashed enough tickets on this angle to
be in the black.

If you stuck strictly to the 14-1 rule you would need only one winner
out of 10 bets to achieve 50% ROI.

In the case with Crazy Kater I had tabbed this horse in September. I bet him his first race back on May 30th.

Being an angle horse on July 4th just gave me more confidence to pull the trigger.

[gandalf380]

i used to keep a list of horses to watch but then I realized it was of limited use. Each race is a different matchup than the horse has ever faced before.

[ScottB]

I look for situations where you can see the trainer is working
with the horse to bring it to peak condition.

I like watching a trainer like Steve Assmussen working with a horse
then legging up Ricardo Santana Jr on D-Day.