Csr ?

[Mr.Pagine]

Is it a fair statement to say that the winner usually comes in from the top 5 in CSR?
Thank you in advance.

Happy Punting
Jon

[rdiam]

You all have the simplest contender selection method at your fingertips: the much maligned ML:

Top ML wins 34%
Second ranked ML wins 21%
Third ranked ML wins 15%
Fourth ranked ML win 11%

So top 4 Ml wins better than 80%. Just the top 2 wins 55%. Sartin's Yellow manual suggested using top 5 ML. That should get you close to 90%.

Don't waste your time "picking" contenders. The game is how you rate them (As, Bs, Cs, Xs) and how you bet them.

Richard

[MJS6916]

Is it a fair statement to say that the winner usually comes in from the top 5 in CSR?
Thank you in advance.

Happy Punting
Jon

you can do a lot worse than using CSR as one of your tools.

I heard you can right-click on it if you think the number is negatively affected
by an troubled/excusable line in the last 1-4 races.

Good handicapping and happy punting
Mike

[Bill Lyster]

You all have the simplest contender selection method at your fingertips: the much maligned ML:

Top ML wins 34%
Second ranked ML wins 21%
Third ranked ML wins 15%
Fourth ranked ML win 11%

So top 4 Ml wins better than 80%. Just the top 2 wins 55%. Sartin's Yellow manual suggested using top 5 ML. That should get you close to 90%.

Don't waste your time "picking" contenders. The game is how you rate them (As, Bs, Cs, Xs) and how you bet them.

Richard

Last week at WO, SAR, GP and Dmr 88.6% in the top 5 M/L - right on target vs 87% top 5 BPP plus any PL not in top 5. Fewer horses in M/L than the combined BPP/PL variation.

[MJS6916]

Last week at WO, SAR, GP and Dmr 88.6% in the top 5 M/L - right on target vs 87% top 5 BPP plus any PL not in top 5. Fewer horses in M/L than the combined BPP/PL variation.

that's any top 5 ProfitLine not in the BPP top 5 ?

meaning: if not using the M/L you go to BPP as the 1st filter, then PL.

Am I interpreting this correctly?


Mike

[Bill Lyster]

I just listed all the top five BPP and any other horse that was not top five BPP, but was top 5 PL. There was a race yesterday at PARX where all horses were either top 5 BPP or PL, nine in total! I just showed the BPP stat for comparison, I agree with Richard Diamond, but either category is about the same, its just that sometimes the BPP/PL info includes too many horses. Usually the ML will have no more than 6 if there is a tie in ML odds in the top 5.

[The Pook]

Last week at WO, SAR, GP and Dmr 88.6% in the top 5 M/L - right on target vs 87% top 5 BPP plus any PL not in top 5. Fewer horses in M/L than the combined BPP/PL variation.

Bill, it would be interesting to know the total payout of those groups of winners, ML’s verses BPP/PL’s. They are both around the same hit rate, but I would guess there would be less return with the ML group.

If you have it.

Pook

[MJS6916]

I just listed all the top five BPP and any other horse that was not top five BPP, but was top 5 PL. There was a race yesterday at PARX where all horses were either top 5 BPP or PL, nine in total! I just showed the BPP stat for comparison, I agree with Richard Diamond, but either category is about the same, its just that sometimes the BPP/PL info includes too many horses. Usually the ML will have no more than 6 if there is a tie in ML odds in the top 5.

Thank you Bill

Mike

[Lt1]

It stands to reason that Profit and Prime may have more than 5 contenders in their top 5 for a race since they use different factors to reach their conclusions. For instance Profit Line does rate FTS while Bris doesn't. Based on my studies, I know, that the winner of most races at most tracks is contain in the top 5 of at least one of them and a lot of times both 90% of the time. It just a matter of preference what one uses to get their contenders. No matter what is use we still must do our work.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Bill, it would be interesting to know the total payout of those groups of winners, ML’s verses BPP/PL’s. They are both around the same hit rate, but I would guess there would be less return with the ML group.

If you have it.

Pook

I did a little work on exactas and trifectas, but nothing on win mutuals. How many horses are you looking to put into your win bet? Obviously, that affects ROI. Top two in each of ML and BPP?

[Bill Lyster]

The total odds returned by first and second choices in BPP for these 147 races was 151.35; for M/L the total odds was 161.10; in the first case you lose $134 on $2 win bets and in the second case (ML) you lose $104.70, neither very exciting.