Verification

[rmath]

I just completed a 1,000 race survey ( for all who are interested )
919 winners were in the Top 5 PL or BPP numbers.

This just proves what LT1. , Mitch, and I have been saying for many years that this is an excellent starting point that will make contender selection very simple.
Rmath

[Lt1]

Amen to that Rich. Contender selection can't get any easier that.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Like in the Military, there's nothing like getting started off on the correct foot. Contender selection is the first major step to success with the Sartin procedures and RDSS.


Mitch44

[CheckMark]

Would it be possible if everyone here could access the 1000 race study?

And that is 91.9% of winners too which is amazing!

I have now been using ProfitLine to use as a contenders list and I have seen winners in countless races be in the Top 5 and they can either be favorites or Longshots.

And are the Top 5 PL the same as Top 5 BPP? For example:
T5 PL 1-3-5-7-9
T5 BPP 1-5-3-9-7

[Mitch44]

Conley, in the majority of cases they are the same and as you indicated perhaps in a slightly different order. Than again there are cases where they disagree much, which indicates a chaos race or a wide open affair.

The key to the Mint is separating these contenders and landing on the winner.

Mitch44

[rmath]

Conley, I keep my records on graph paper and not on a spread sheet, also I mark up certain combinations of the rankings which would make trying to understand them a problem for many.
You can keep your own records , just use a legal pad and make 4 columns and label them.
VDC CSR PL BPP and enter the final rankings after scratches from the RX3 screen.
If you have any questions you can contact me on skype.
Hope this helps.
Rmath

[CheckMark]

Ok, no worries thanks for answering my questions/thoughts rmath!

And yes I do have Skype if you wanted to share details

[rmath]

Conley, I am always willing to help.

My phone # is 330-627-4097

[sureshotlink]

Sorting thru the Top 5 PL or BPP numbers to find your winner or winners
is where the real work starts.

PL

[rmath]

You are quite right when you stated that this is only the starting point. Separating these contenders is where the fun and the real work begins.
Good luck with this part.
Rmath

[rdiam]

Curious in your study how often your 5+ contenders made up more than 50% of the number of runners. I would think a better test would incorporate this statistic. As an extreme example, using the method in a 5 horse field gets you the "contenders" 100% of the time, but that is a bogus stat. Much better to only count the races where your "contenders" make up a maximum of 50% of the field. Thanks.

Richard

[rmath]

rdiam, Not sure, I was only looking at cards with a p-6 .
Most races in a P-6 usually have 8-12 entries.
In 85-90% of these races I get it down to 3 main contenders for win and have 75+% of the winners in these. In about 10-15% of the races I have a long shot as a 4th horse.

Hope this answers your question.
Rmathi

[So Cal Al]

In order to cover the top 5 contenders for 1000 races, the cost is $10 per race 5x2=10x1000=$10,000. Does the total payoff of the 91.9% win rate exceed $10,000? Just wondering!

[rmath]

AL, I can not answer that question for two reasons:
1) i would never bet 5 horses in a race and
2) I was looking for P-4, P-5 and P-6 plays.
I do have the results for all these races But have never totaled up the win payoffs.
I will say that my multi race tickets have been profitable.
Rmath,

[Lt1]

I will chime in here. I have run multi surveys over several years to verify that the top 5 Prime and Profit ranked horses win up to 90% of races run. I didn't confine myself to major tracks but included tracks like MVR, TDN,WRD.DED DOWNS where the animals running at those track are not the soundest creatures on the planet. I didn't wager on every race nor did I include short fields. in my surveys. I am satisfied that the top 5 ranked horses are still performing to high level. Did anybody believe that Bob Purdy or Doc bet on every race included in all the test they ran?. Anyway the point being missed is that Richie ,Mitch, and myself are trying to help those who are having trouble identifying true contenders. Even if the win % fell to 85%[nothing or no one gets 100%] it would imho help those folks. True this only the first step but you can't win a race if the winner isn't in the mix. I use this procedure daily and I believe my posted results show this to be a valid procedure. Everyone is free to use what they want so feel free to disagree with us.
Tim

[So Cal Al]

Thanks, Tim, for the "chime in". I agree the the top 5 is a very workable starting point, and that further selection work is still necessary to determine the actual horses to bet. I was asking the author of the work for additional information based on the data he uncovered. ITM, it should surprise no one that betting on all of the top 5 would resort in a loss....just wanted to know what the data about it.