Help with fractions of a race

[CheckMark]

1/5th
2/5th
3/5th
4/5th

You would hear it all the time but I am just clarifying if:

1/5 would equal .2 so .1 would be .2?
2/5 would equal .4 so .2 would be .4?
3/5 would equal .6 so .3 would be .6?
4/5 would equal .8 so .4 would be .8?

I am trying to create speed figure pars for a few racetracks and just wanted to know if I am doing something right or wrong with the above?

I have also attached a screen shot of what I am bolding in text

Thanks all :)

49635

[CheckMark]

Here is an attachment of the speed figure pars that I have found to use for all tracks

These are for dirt and not for turf just FYI

49636

[raceman5]

Conley there are 2 things you can do as far as pars go.

1. Dave Schartz sells pars.
2. you stated that u are not using the RDSS Software so the other thing u can do as far as pp's go is Trackmaster in their PP's they give you the par times for each race.
3. now the best PP's, in my opinion, are Timeform because their times are already adjusted you don't have to worry about killing yourself to make pars.


Bob

[Mitch44]

Conley in post #1 your correct that 1/5 would be .20 etc. All that's doing is converting 1/5 of a second to hundreds.


Hundreds tend to give more accuracy to the math in a computer program. Essentially its the same but depending how its applied in a program it can be more accurate.


Mitch44

[CheckMark]

Conley there are 2 things you can do as far as pars go.

1. Dave Schartz sells pars.
2. you stated that u are not using the RDSS Software so the other thing u can do as far as pp's go is Trackmaster in their PP's they give you the par times for each race.
3. now the best PP's, in my opinion, are Timeform because their times are already adjusted you don't have to worry about killing yourself to make pars.


Bob

Thank you for the suggestions but I am really wanting to try and create my own pars for a few racetracks and only tracks that have a dirt surface and no all weather/turf races for now

Dave Schwartz has talked to me about the subject of trying to create your own speed figures and he also suggested taking the hassle of making your own by purchasing his own pars which looks pretty detailed

And for the Brisnet and Trackmaster Pars I do use them sometimes but I later learned you can get try and make your own speed figures to see how well they compare to the big boys (DRF/Brisnet/TimeformUS?/Trackmaster)

[CheckMark]

Conley in post #1 your correct that 1/5 would be .20 etc. All that's doing is converting 1/5 of a second to hundreds.


Hundreds tend to give more accuracy to the math in a computer program. Essentially its the same but depending how its applied in a program it can be more accurate.


Mitch44

OK that is what I was hoping

Thanks Mitch! :jump:

[Mitch44]

With Speed Ratings such as Beyer, Bris, Track Master etc. This is all done already for you. It's doubtful at best you could improve on their numbers. Sure that could be done and I can think of a few things that would make them more accurate, but have they already thought of that and its included?

I don't think you realize the difficulty of collecting all the data required. A full time job in itself. It would be like data base collector's who spend all their time collecting and little time for playing. Even after gathering all this data tracks can change with a new surface such as they had to do because of breakdowns recently at SA.

The thing about SR's is that its similar to Pace Handicapping, understanding concept is the most important thing about it. And your smart enough to do that without all the drudgery to get to the finish line.

Another problem with Pars is their often outdated by the time you get the information.

Once you understood concept the first thing is you would have to do, is write a computer program to gather all the data on a daily basis. For all the tracks in the Us otherwise how does one handle shippers? A good and well written program to extract all that data automatically would save much valuable time collecting all this data, plus provide some immediacy.

Not only that SR aren't the end all as other factors can be or are more effective. Their a better tool than players had previously or nothing at all, even today.

There are many reasons why a horses' SR underperform or even outperform. Hell even the initial concept is wrong because the collection of data does not consider the variant on the date collected to determine these Pars. They consider it later after a race is run to determine a good figure but not in the collecting of the data to determine the Pars. They average final time by class, age, surface and distance to get the Pars but not the variants on that data. Averages are inaccurate as a means to determine accuracy, a true false sense of hope.

Bottom line is a SR is an improvement to nothing. Unless your going to spend years building a better mouse trap after first becoming a computer programmer for-get about it.

Beyer's original concepts were just foreplay and he's never to my knowledge ever improved on the concept. An update or new and improved version could be a better product but an expensive investment in time and money.

Mitch44

[CheckMark]

With Speed Ratings such as Beyer, Bris, Track Master etc. This is all done already for you. It's doubtful at best you could improve on their numbers. Sure that could be done and I can think of a few things that would make them more accurate, but have they already thought of that and its included?

I don't think you realize the difficulty of collecting all the data required. A full time job in itself. It would be like data base collector's who spend all their time collecting and little time for playing. Even after gathering all this data tracks can change with a new surface such as they had to do because of breakdowns recently at SA.

The thing about SR's is that its similar to Pace Handicapping, understanding concept is the most important thing about it. And your smart enough to do that without all the drudgery to get to the finish line.

Another problem with Pars is their often outdated by the time you get the information.

Once you understood concept the first thing is you would have to do, is write a computer program to gather all the data on a daily basis. For all the tracks in the Us otherwise how does one handle shippers? A good and well written program to extract all that data automatically would save much valuable time collecting all this data, plus provide some immediacy.

Not only that SR aren't the end all as other factors can be or are more effective. Their a better tool than players had previously or nothing at all, even today.

There are many reasons why a horses' SR underperform or even outperform. Hell even the initial concept is wrong because the collection of data does not consider the variant on the date collected to determine these Pars. They consider it later after a race is run to determine a good figure but not in the collecting of the data to determine the Pars. They average final time by class, age, surface and distance to get the Pars but not the variants on that data. Averages are inaccurate as a means to determine accuracy, a true false sense of hope.

Bottom line is a SR is an improvement to nothing. Unless your going to spend years building a better mouse trap after first becoming a computer programmer for-get about it.

Beyer's original concepts were just foreplay and he's never to my knowledge ever improved on the concept. An update or new and improved version could be a better product but an expensive investment in time and money.

Mitch44

So pretty much just don't try is what you're saying?

I know it would take work but I would rather struggle and work my way up to creating my own speed figures vs telling someone there is a lot of work to be done

I guess if I can't handle it then Dave S's book is the way to go then

[Mitch44]

What I'm saying is that concept can give you that understanding and can save much valuable time and expense.

I haven't read Swartz's concept to Pars but I'm sure he got it from Beyer or adapted it from Beyer. I would read both their books to see if their the same or an improvement. I do know Swartz is very good with collection of data and computers where as Beyer not so much. Plus at the time of Beyer, computers weren't that prolific and were in their infancy as compared to Swartz's work.

Gordan Pine has been know for years for his accuracy in Pars. Which is best? I have no idea. Beyers' is selling SR's to the DRF whereas Pine and Swartz are selling Pars. They all have an interest and will swear theirs in the best s-it since slice bread.

I myself think the Bris SP are better than the Beyer numbers because their computer generated where as the Beyer is made by 7 or so other people and that's too many fingers in the pie for good results,inconsistent application of the process.

Before embarking on this journey you should do a study on how any SR, which are derived from Pars hold up against other Factors such as Total Energy, CR BLBL etc. What was its ranking verses a SR such as a Beyer or the TrackMaster SR that's within the program. Personally I don't even look at the TrachMaster SR within the RDSS program.


Pars are one dimensional in that they only consider final time, Pace and the POR has a direct influence on that final time. Even Beyer saw the flaw in just final time after Sartin made him aware of it.

Pars also exist for incremental time as well as final time but to my knowledge aren't incorporated in any SR. SR are based on final time only. Sartin said it best when he said horses don't read Pars or know how fast their suppose to run. The best Pars are made up from the horses within the race or Match Up, they also represent the present, not something earned a year ago.


What I'm saying is that before taking on this task, do some studies and you may find some things more proficient. And even a better mousetrap of those, if found, would be a more worthwhile endeavor.

Mitch44

[tom]

I have had a lot of success using TimeForm ADJUSTED times in Sartin type programs in a spreadsheet.

[raceman5]

Tom do u go about doing that. I have the synergy program on a thumb drive that i use on my old netbook computer because it won't work in windows 10. How do u create a spread sheet

[MJS6916]

Thank you for the suggestions but I am really wanting to try and create my own pars for a few racetracks and only tracks that have a dirt surface and no all weather/turf races for now

Dave Schwartz has talked to me about the subject of trying to create your own speed figures and he also suggested taking the hassle of making your own by purchasing his own pars which looks pretty detailed

And for the Brisnet and Trackmaster Pars I do use them sometimes but I later learned you can get try and make your own speed figures to see how well they compare to the big boys (DRF/Brisnet/TimeformUS?/Trackmaster)


I'm certain you'll do better versus DRF (BeyerSF) for sure.

Those guys lost their way more than 2 decades ago.

Beyer did much better on his own when he was cutting his teeth as
a professional handicapper versus what this crew has done.

I don't believe it will take you very long to see that.

[CheckMark]

What I'm saying is that concept can give you that understanding and can save much valuable time and expense.

I haven't read Swartz's concept to Pars but I'm sure he got it from Beyer or adapted it from Beyer. I would read both their books to see if their the same or an improvement. I do know Swartz is very good with collection of data and computers where as Beyer not so much. Plus at the time of Beyer, computers weren't that prolific and were in their infancy as compared to Swartz's work.

Gordan Pine has been know for years for his accuracy in Pars. Which is best? I have no idea. Beyers' is selling SR's to the DRF whereas Pine and Swartz are selling Pars. They all have an interest and will swear theirs in the best s-it since slice bread.

I myself think the Bris SP are better than the Beyer numbers because their computer generated where as the Beyer is made by 7 or so other people and that's too many fingers in the pie for good results,inconsistent application of the process.

Before embarking on this journey you should do a study on how any SR, which are derived from Pars hold up against other Factors such as Total Energy, CR BLBL etc. What was its ranking verses a SR such as a Beyer or the TrackMaster SR that's within the program. Personally I don't even look at the TrachMaster SR within the RDSS program.


Pars are one dimensional in that they only consider final time, Pace and the POR has a direct influence on that final time. Even Beyer saw the flaw in just final time after Sartin made him aware of it.

Pars also exist for incremental time as well as final time but to my knowledge aren't incorporated in any SR. SR are based on final time only. Sartin said it best when he said horses don't read Pars or know how fast their suppose to run. The best Pars are made up from the horses within the race or Match Up, they also represent the present, not something earned a year ago.


What I'm saying is that before taking on this task, do some studies and you may find some things more proficient. And even a better mousetrap of those, if found, would be a more worthwhile endeavor.

Mitch44

Sorry for sounding negative it's just that I really want to create speed figures/pars but I know the consequences if I were to do this full time

I am in the talks of asking Dave if he would recommend using his pars for speed figures and creating my own off of his numbers?

Kinda cheating if I were to do that but at least that would take pretty well 90% of the work off my back lol

It's pretty hefty price but I am starting a part-time job (maybe full time shortly) as a server at my grandma's/cousins retirement home so I would see how much I could make to purchase his pars

[CheckMark]

I'm certain you'll do better versus DRF (BeyerSF) for sure.

Those guys lost their way more than 2 decades ago.

Beyer did much better on his own when he was cutting his teeth as
a professional handicapper versus what this crew has done.

I don't believe it will take you very long to see that.

Yes that is why I want to show people that I could create pars and speed figures for my own use and when I was fully confident I could sell them to the public (and no secret formula included ROTFL )

[tom]

Tom do u go about doing that. I have the synergy program on a thumb drive that i use on my old netbook computer because it won't work in windows 10. How do u create a spread sheet

I use Excel and just use the formula from Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping.

If you have Synergy, try converting the TF times to fifths, ie, 46.67 = 46-3/5

[rdiam]

Virtually EVERYONE in the pari-mutuel pool is using some sort of speed figures. Beyers and Equibase are out there for all to see. Timeform and HTR use a combined pace/speed number. Ragozin and Thorograph use a performance figure to include wind and path. NONE of them will show a profit by themselves. You will almost always end up on the chalk, since there is little to differentiate them.

Instead of creating a better mousetrap where there will be little demand, why don't you focus your efforts on creating a figure you expect the horse to run today? This can be based on form cycles (like sheet patterns), pace match-ups, RDSS, or something else that NO ONE else is currently using. If you are successful, you can then decide to use the information to bet yourself, or if you want to spend a lot of time marketing, try to sell the information to a dwindling audience. I admire your passion, but you are wasting a lot of time and energy trying to re-invent the wheel. Good luck.

Richard

[Mitch44]

"if you want to spend a lot of time marketing, try to sell the information to a dwindling audience." No matter what business your in marketing is a necessity, if the product is good that lessens but never stops.

The game is forever changing and the customers are dwindling however the game has adapted many times before and I would expect that ship to right itself again and survive.

Human nature wants the best and gravitate towards it. A better mousetrap will draw business and a following. If that fails you will have created an edge for yourself over the masses for profit.

Richard is correct about the competition being intense however they all appear to be making money or they would not exist.

The shortcut to all this is to understand the concept of how derived, the difference between products and than coming up with something that improves the existing SR's. A high bar to overcome but not impossible.

Mitch44

[CheckMark]

"if you want to spend a lot of time marketing, try to sell the information to a dwindling audience." No matter what business you in marketing is a necessity, if the product is good that lessens but never stops.

The game is forever changing and the customers are dwindling however the game has adapted many times before and I would expect that ship to right itself again and survive.

Human nature wants the best and gravitates towards it. A better mousetrap will draw business and a following. If that fails you will have created an edge for yourself over the masses for profit.

Richard is correct about the competition being intense however they all appear to be making money or they would not exist.

The shortcut to all this is to understand the concept of how derived, the difference between products, and then coming up with something that improves the existing SR's. A high bar to overcome but not impossible.

Mitch44

:thumb:

The saying goes "If you want something so badly you will get it" and that is what I have been repeating in my head ever since the day I heard that

Not saying you guys or wrong or anything just that I would love to have a horse racing product of my own that others can purchase so they can win too!

It makes some time and yes it will take some failures but I know if I can keep grinding I can make my own reliable speed figures and pars for the general racing public

I will let everyone know how I make out

[Mitch44]

I understand Conley. Your young and have lots of time to succeed. Go for it and best of luck.


Mitch44

[CheckMark]

I understand Conley. Your young and have lots of time to succeed. Go for it and best of luck.


Mitch44

Thank you mitch I will let you and everyone else know how I am doing!

[CheckMark]

Just wondering if anyone has the following "averages" for the following

DIRT
2 furlongs
2 1/2 furlongs
3 furlongs
4 furlongs
4 1/2 furlongs
1 5/16 miles
1 3/8 miles
1 7/16 miles
1 1/2 miles
1 9/16 miles
1 5/8 miles
1 11/16 miles
1 3/4 miles
1 13/16 miles
1 7/8 miles
1 15/16 miles
2 miles
2 miles 40-70 yards
2 1/16 miles
2 1/8 miles
2 3/16 miles
2 1/4 miles
2 5/16 miles
3 miles


TURF
All distances between 2 furlongs and 3 miles

I have all the distances that are not listed above for dirt but I have nothing on averages for turf

So if you have any averages that can be used for my speed figures and that are able to be used around the country (US/Canada) that would be awesome!

Appreciate it very much

[CheckMark]

So I guess that is a no?

Thought someone out there might have some pars that I could have as an average for the ones missing from my set

[gandalf380]

Most of those missing distances are rarely run. Have you looked at drf 3 year best times?

[CheckMark]

Most of those missing distances are rarely run. Have you looked at drf 3 year best times?

I was thinking of that some of the races are rarely run at those distances anyways

And yes I was going to do that for the Turf figures of the distances that are shown by DRF for 3yr best times

Thanks