RDSS Tutorial Webinar #1

[Ted Craven]

Today April 20 there will be a RDSS Tutorial Webinar via Zoom at 1pm Eastern Time. I'll start it at 12:45 to give 15 minutes for folks to join and get any technical kinks worked out. It might last an hour. Everyone is welcomed to join; there is no charge for this.

The meeting is over. Please watch the video, here (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=133988&postcount=16).

Follow the instructions given to join the webinar. You don't need a video cam working (to show your own face) if you don't want to, but you do need to turn your computer speakers on for audio. You can try joining that meeting early if you wish to get your Zoom app working in your browser: the meeting won't have started, but it will give you time to get set up rather than at the last minute if you've not used Zoom before. You can disconnect and join again later.

Note: when you join the meeting, you will be placed into a 'waiting room' mode until I admit you to the meeting, so please be patient :)

This might be the first of a regular series of RDSS/Sartin Methodology tutorials. I will record it and post a link to re-watch it at your leisure. This initial webinar will review some of the basics of using RDSS, navigating the screens, what some of the readouts mean and how they inter-relate. Also my personal approach to using the tools. We'll use PARX races today as a context for what we're doing. Subsequent webinars might have different guests showing their own particular ways of using RDSS and betting practice.

When you join, your audio will be muted. If there are questions or comments, please enter them in the Chat box which I'll identify at the beginning. Then I can enable audio for others in the meeting to participate. This will be my first time holding a meeting/webinar with more than 3 people, so it might take me a little while to get the best flow of participation happening.

Here is the Zoom tutorial page with info on how to join a Zoom meeting and how to use the Zoom interface during the meeting: https://support.zoom.us/hc/en-us/articles/201362193-How-Do-I-Join-A-Meeting- For specific info on joining a meeting from a web browser (as we're doing, via the link above), scroll down that Zoom tutorial page to the Web Browser section for a detailed description on what to expect from different browsers.

See you in a few hours!

Ted

[DaveEdwards]

Hi Ted,
As there is space for 100 people I'm going to log in twice. Once with my PC to see everything properly and also with my phone to talk and so I can be seen. Under my real name too!

[Ted Craven]

That's OK. Starting soon.

[gfnut]

Hi Ted
I tried to go to meeting but it said you removed me from meeting. Is it full.

[Ted Craven]

Tom, were you named MS Store? If that was you, I apologize. I am sensitive to random 'Zoom-bombers' crashing in (and the link to this meeting was a public link), hence the 'waiting room' mode.

Perhaps next time you can change your Zoom meeting ID name to something giving me a clue as to who it is (gfnut, Tom, etc).

Sorry if that happened to you. I'll post the video later this afternoon.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Thanks everyone for attending - 16 different people by my count. I hope to do this again next week with someone else as guest handicapper.

Meeting video is rendering and I'll post it as soon as I can.

Ted

[Old Arkie Gal]

Thanks. A good tutorial especially for beginning users of RDSS, but also informational material for longtime users.
Pat

[Ted Craven]

Here are RX screen shots for today's races. The first 3 have run, the rest not yet.


49637

49638

49639

49640


EDIT: in race 4, the #2 horse is getting great tote support. I would upgrade it to Win Contender in this sorry lot of horses.

[Mitch44]

Thanks Ted, greatly appreciated. I believe and think Bill V. would have really enjoyed this. That Zoom is impressive. Nice work Ted.


Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

R4 updated at post time


49641

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Ted, greatly appreciated. I believe and think Bill V. would have really enjoyed this. That Zoom is impressive. Nice work Ted.

Mitch44

Thanks Mitch! I was thinking of Bill myself this morning :).

One thing I forgot to mention - d'ohh: I wanted to say that this webinar was sponsored by the 2nd annual Bill Varone Memorial Contest, organized by Pook and starting May 2. I encourage everyone who can spare the $100 entry fee and thinks they know something :) to join in the fun over 2 weekends, beginning with Kentucky Derby Day.

Here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?goto=newpost&t=13696

Ted

[raceman5]

Great!!!!! job.

Bob

[Ted Craven]

5,6,7


49642

49643

49644

[Ted Craven]

Races 8,9,10


49645

49646

49647

[Ted Craven]

These are the selections for the rest of today FWIW, using the same methods and decisions I discussed a bit in the video.

I generally try to get Primary Contenders down to 3 horses max, and often use the late tote info (Tote Xray section) to help identify weak favourites or stronger longshots (like the #2 in Race 4).

In some contentious races, when playing horizontals (which I don't often do lately), may have to leave in 4 horses and spread.

Good luck to all!

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Here is the link to today's RDSS Tutorial #1:

www.sartinmethodology.com/video/RDSS.Tutorial.2021.04.20.mp4 (http://www.sartinmethodology.com/video/RDSS.Tutorial.2021.04.20.mp4)

I will cross post this in the Video Tutorials area, and also to the Sartin Methodology YouTube account.

If anyone has any questions about what we reviewed in this tutorial, feel free to ask those questions here.

Enjoy!

Ted

[Lt1]

Very nice job today Ted. I think these webinars will really help folks to get better. Keep up the good work.
Tim

[Ted Craven]

Update to race 6: the #4 horse is getting great support on tote at 19-1


Could be ITM contender.

[57viking]

Thanks Ted for hosting , I look forward to the next session .

[papajohn3times]

Perfect Ted! Great explanations!
Papa John

[gfnut]

That was probably me. I did not know you could put in a user name. I will try and change it. Thanks

[DaveEdwards]

Thanks Ted, appreciate you taking the time to do that. If we are going without cameras then I'll just do the one log in next time!

[elocutionist]

Ted, it seems you place significance in the PW%. I understand it is the ratio of place to win bets. Why is this important? Good seminar today. Looking forward to future ones.

Phil

[Lt1]

Thought I would expand upon my answer as to why I didn't use the 7 in r6. The other primary reason I didn't use this horse was the according to my model the 2 dominate factors for winners[winners rank in the top 2 the most times] at 6f are CPR & VDC. The 7 ranked 5th on CPR & 4TH on VDC. Coupling that with its' weak 3rd fractions I tossed.it. Here are the lines I used on my contenders
#1 L1
#2 L3
#3 L4
#6 L4
#7 L2
Tim

[darmar]

Great stuff today Ted I hope you can find time to do more like this one. Thanks again
Darryl

[Bill Lyster]

Thought I would expand upon my answer as to why I didn't use the 7 in r6. The other primary reason I didn't use this horse was the according to my model the 2 dominate factors for winners[winners rank in the top 2 the most times] at 6f are CPR & VDC. The 7 ranked 5th on CPR & 4TH on VDC. Coupling that with its' weak 3rd fractions I tossed.it. Here are the lines I used on my contenders
#1 L1
#2 L3
#3 L4
#6 L4
#7 L2
Tim

Thanks for doing that Tim, I noticed that you did not use any off track lines for any of the horses. Do you consider off track lines when the track is less than fast? Or do you see them as an outlier, especially when they are best at the distance of today's race, most probably not to be repeated?

Thanks,

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. I try not to use off tracks if at all possible especially on fast tracks. I listen to folks like Brohamer, Jones etc an adopted that approach. If track is off I prefer to use fast track lines for the horses if possible and then refer to the lifetime box to see how they perform on off tracks. I find in my experience that this works well rather then rating some horses off fast tracks and others from off tracks[treats all horses the same]. I'm in no way saying not to use off tracks if one feels comfortable with doing that especially if that line is the best perceptor of the last 3.
Tim

[Lt1]

Since pacelines are of primary importance here are some other things I do. First I use the BRIS pps as my primary handicapping tool. They just contain more information then TM pps. After I note the paceline the program has chosen[and I left stand] I go to the Bris pps for confirmation. I do not use lifetime best races for horses 5 & up. I also check to see if the line is out of line with what the horse usually runs. For example lets' say that the line was chosen and has a Bris speed ratting of 89. I check the rest of the lines and see it has never more than 80 in the other races I won't use that line. My cut off is 5 pts so if it has 84 or 85 showing in the pps then I may use the 89. I also check for sealed track lines which I won't use if at all possible. There are times when fast tracks are sealed when bad weather is anticipated that day. Hope that clears my paceline selections.
Tim

[shoeless]

Like the way you go about picking PP'S

Jeff

[Lt1]

Thanks Jeff.
Tim

[raceman5]

Nice job Tim.

Bob

[Lt1]

Thanks Bob.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Since pacelines are of primary importance here are some other things I do. First I use the BRIS pps as my primary handicapping tool. They just contain more information then TM pps. After I note the paceline the program has chosen[and I left stand] I go to the Bris pps for confirmation. I do not use lifetime best races for horses 5 & up. I also check to see if the line is out of line with what the horse usually runs. For example lets' say that the line was chosen and has a Bris speed ratting of 89. I check the rest of the lines and see it has never more than 80 in the other races I won't use that line. My cut off is 5 pts so if it has 84 or 85 showing in the pps then I may use the 89. I also check for sealed track lines which I won't use if at all possible. There are times when fast tracks are sealed when bad weather is anticipated that day. Hope that clears my paceline selections.
Tim

Tim,

Thanks Tim, I was wondering about some of those aberrant speed ratings and how to handle them.

Where do you stand on improvements made by inexperienced horses? Do you have a limit on significant SR advances (this is, more than 5 pts) for horses like young horses learning how to run? Is there a number great than the previous PPs that makes you nervous to use?

In horses coming back after layoffs, especially if the first one or two races are dull SR-wise from previous races, do you look at previous layoffs if they had any to see if a pattern of improvement occurs after ___ races?

Have any qualms about using a first off a layoff if it matches the previous best? Do you consider that if a first after layoff races matches the previous range of best, do you look for improvement from that race or just use it as a good representation.

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. I don't try to read into anything. I just use what I see in the pps. I leave the crystal ball stuff to folks more qualified than me. As far as young horses I usually don't play too many races restricted to 3 yr olds mainly due to a lack of info and the inconsistent nature of their performances. Also I haven't mention this before I use several non Sartin factors that help me deal with some of the questions you ask such as 2 dull races in a row etc. I also pay attention to the class of the horse. Low level horses don't usually make magical turnarounds overnight. If one some how does and beats me well it's on to the next race. I do take a quick look to see if maybe I missed something but most times I didn't so why worry.
Tim

[Ted Craven]

Ted, it seems you place significance in the PW%. I understand it is the ratio of place to win bets. Why is this important? Good seminar today. Looking forward to future ones.

Phil

Phil, after years of anecdotal evidence, 1000+ race modelling of this info at about 1 MTP shows a high correlation to in-the-money performance, > 80% and as high as any other factor for the Win, Place and Show performance, and higher than straight Win Odds.

Yes, ratio of Place to Win pool money. Typically (not always), money is distributed across the straight pools something like 50-30-20% (or some similar declining ratio, 60-25-15, etc). For real contenders (and for simplicity, Top half of the betting odds in reasonable sized fields) when there is MORE money bet to Win than to Place on a horse than a normal ratio (and particularly in a greater ratio than the overall Win to Place pool totals), the relative numbers of the PW% ratio indicate that someone (or collection of someones) has a better opinion of the horse's chances than is evident by either public handicapping data or simply the Win pool odds alone.

Of course, it doesn't always work. Sometimes the perceived superior PW ratio disappears after all pools are settled, or another horse rises to prominence. Often the PW% ratio agrees more or less perfectly with Win Odds, so - no extra information.

Good uses of this ratio are: to confirm that a strong Win pool favourite is also favoured by this ratio. Conversely, if a favourite is 2-1 yet is say, worse than 3rd in the PW% - this indicates an assessment of potential weakness by 'those in the know' (or 'wisdom of crowds' which is what a pari-mutuel pool is).

Or - if a longer priced horse (per Win pool money and Odds) takes consistent strong action to Win compared to what a normal distribution of money in the Place pool ought to be (= stronger PW%), then this horse is interesting, if not to Win, then to finish in-the-money. A good example on this day was Race 4, the #2 horse (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=133980&postcount=8 and http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=133982&postcount=10). At Odds of 13-1 at bet-time, it had a strong PW% advantage over the 4/5 favourite. Why was that? It paid $6.60 to Place (vs $3.00 on the favourite #6 to Win) and provided a $19.40 Exacta.

This is precisely the scenario the PW% ratio was designed for, including Maiden races like this or other races where public info is equivocal or absent, such as First Time Starters. If someone or a group has privileged info about a horse, if they ACT on that opinion, it will show up in the pools somehow, sometimes with enough clarity to act yourself.

Of course, this pool imbalance scenario shows up in many other ways, in Exacta/Quinella pools, Daily Double look-ahead and look-back analysis, will-pays for horizontals, etc. With the right analysis tools, you can see lots of hidden info (sort of like an Xray, but for Tote ;)).

When betting, I always try to bet close to off-time and always am aware of the Top 3 PW% horses. It does not always prove useful, except when it does.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

... Also I haven't mention this before I use several non Sartin factors that help me deal with some of the questions you ask such as 2 dull races in a row etc. ...
Tim

FWIW, I think that what have come to be called 'Sartin factors' arose originally because of empirical evidence-based observation, modelling and record keeping. Many of those factors happened to be related to pace analysis and a Matchup analysis of running styles related to incremental energy disbursement, which was esoteric enough at the time, also difficult to process without software. Hence the advantage it gave at the time to those who could put in the effort.

Any 'non-Sartin' factors which demonstrate their usefulness on a repeated basis to improve hit-rate, ROI, finding long-shot horses, clarifying form cycles, identifying false contenders, etc - in other words, factors/analysis which works, persistently - deserve to be in anyone's arsenal! Often these work so well and are so 'under the radar' that they are not widely shared, which is part of the zero-sum-game which is pari-mutuel betting.

For me, detailed tote analysis is such a 'non-Sartin' factor. It works so reliably for me, it almost deserves to be called a 'Sartin factor', LoL, by the same reasoning that pace analysis and the Matchup got to be called 'Sartin factors' in the first place. (To be clear, much more than the PW% ratio included in RDSS). But 'Sartin Factors' are historical and publicly available and documented (some formulas more public than others), while tote analysis and other useful stuff is newer and not publicly available, so - a 'non-Sartin factor' by that definition.

I estimate that most RDSS users also make use of a collection of other tools they find useful.

Ted

[elocutionist]

Thanks Ted, Great explanation.
Phil

[Bill Lyster]

Hi Bill. I don't try to read into anything. I just use what I see in the pps. I leave the crystal ball stuff to folks more qualified than me. As far as young horses I usually don't play too many races restricted to 3 yr olds mainly due to a lack of info and the inconsistent nature of their performances. Also I haven't mention this before I use several non Sartin factors that help me deal with some of the questions you ask such as 2 dull races in a row etc. I also pay attention to the class of the horse. Low level horses don't usually make magical turnarounds overnight. If one some how does and beats me well it's on to the next race. I do take a quick look to see if maybe I missed something but most times I didn't so why worry.
Tim

Thanks Tim, always appreciate your input.

[Ted Craven]

The next edition of the RDSS Tutorial Webinar series is scheduled for this Wednesday April 28 at 1pm. Guest handicapper Tim G (Lt1)

Here is the Thread for that meeting: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpost.php?p=134151&postcount=1

See you all there!

Ted

[CheckMark]

Ted

Could we have a pool as to who will be after LT/Tim? Could be a way to see who users on here want as their next guest handicapper

Just a thought

[Ted Craven]

Just suggest someone! Better yet, PM them and ask if they'd be interested and ask them to contact me. Or contact me privately and tell me who said yes and I'll contact them if they're shy.

I've got a collection of 5 or 6 more individuals who I'm pretty sure will say yes, or have done so already.

Ted

[CheckMark]

Could I be on the list but put the vetrans before me?

I would love to come on but with respect to the people who have been in this sport longer than I have and have devoted a lot to the Sartin methodology either by matchup or RDSS or whatever else that is on P&C should go before me if I ever do get a chance to have a session of my own

Looking forward to LT on Wednesday!

[Ted Craven]

Conley, I would love to one day interview you for a RDSS/Sartin Methodology Tutorial Webinar - when one day you become proficient at using RDSS and the Methodology :)

Until then (or instead), I look forward to you outlining your handicapping approach on your own YouTube channel (where I am Subscribed in anticipation) and to demonstrating your profitability using selections either there or in the Selections Forum here.

Best wishes to you for success!

Ted

[CheckMark]

Conley, I would love to one day interview you for a RDSS/Sartin Methodology Tutorial Webinar - when one day you become proficient at using RDSS and the Methodology :)

Until then (or instead), I look forward to you outlining your handicapping approach on your own YouTube channel (where I am Subscribed in anticipation) and to demonstrating your profitability using selections either there or in the Selections Forum here.

Best wishes to you for success!

Ted

(Bold)

That sounds like a plan! Thank you

I am coming out with a Derby Day selection show on either Friday am or Thursday night for both my Oaks selections and Derby selections so stay tuned for that!