Layoffs?

[ranchwest]

I am struggling with deciding when to consider a layoff horse. What criteria are suggested for having a layoff horse as a contender? Or, if you prefer, under what criteria do you completely eliminate a horse based on layoff?

[MJS6916]

Not all layoffs are created equal is the short answer.

Usually but not always, if a runner is off for more than 90 days
the reason is due to a setback for the runner.

Still there are many variations of situations
which can explain why time off for a horse
isn’t a good or bad thing.

Trainer history with layoffs are good to look into.

[ranchwest]

Not all layoffs are created equal is the short answer.

Usually but not always, if a runner is off for more than 90 days
the reason is due to a setback for the runner.

Still there are many variations of situations
which can explain why time off for a horse
isn’t a good or bad thing.

Trainer history with layoffs are good to look into.

Thanks. In reviewing the 7/10/2021 races, I noticed I wasn't keen on the 5MTH3 layoff. It wasn't until later that I noticed it was Pletcher, with a win pct of about 23% on that layoff period. So, I think that answered my question. I think my cutoff point on elimination is going to be 11%.

[Mitch44]

A suspicious drop is another to look at. It cost real money to lay up horses, not just feed and care but also training for their return. Their just not going give away a $ 15,000 horse for $5.000.


As players we come across the same situations all the time. We have to learn to deal with those situations or pass the race. Layoffs, repeaters, stretch outs, cutbacks, FTS, FT dirt and FT turf are common everyday situations. Knowledge and a game plan for different situations is a must for success. For every move there is a counter move. If you can't handle them consider them an UNKNOWN Factor and avoid races with 2 unknown factors, that was Sartin's advice which is still sound today.


There are tools within RDSS such as % Med which can help. Also trainer stats and of course risk reward must be a consideration.


Mitch44

[ranchwest]

A suspicious drop is another to look at. It cost real money to lay up horses, not just feed and care but also training for their return. Their just not going give away a $ 15,000 horse for $5.000.


As players we come across the same situations all the time. We have to learn to deal with those situations or pass the race. Layoffs, repeaters, stretch outs, cutbacks, FTS, FT dirt and FT turf are common everyday situations. Knowledge and a game plan for different situations is a must for success. For every move there is a counter move. If you can't handle them consider them an UNKNOWN Factor and avoid races with 2 unknown factors, that was Sartin's advice which is still sound today.


There are tools within RDSS such as % Med which can help. Also trainer stats and of course risk reward must be a consideration.


Mitch44

I read one suggestion that % Med up and TE down suggested going off form. Seems that needs refinement, such as both since a layoff.

How would you suggest using % Med?

[Mitch44]

% Med has nothing to do with form and I have never herd that before, that is "I read one suggestion that % Med up and TE down suggested going off form." I would disregard such advice as its not factual.

Lower TE or % Med could mean a short horse after a layoff or a horse that just got into trouble or could also mean a change in running style etc.

In simplistic terms % Med is how a horse runs and distributes its TE. Speed horses and E or EP tend to run faster early and tend to be sprinters whereas P,SP and S tend to run later in the race and be routers. In some turf races they just run slow early and fast late or L. That's not to say a E or EP can't win a route race. I.e. if their all early than an E will win. Some turf tracks favor speed such as SA whereas Sar if it rains it can be slow or heavy.

The ESP of a race or the Match Up has a great influence on a race.% Med is a great help in determining if a horse can stretch out or take to the turf.

The very best place to read about % Med is in Tom Brohamers book Modern Pace Handicapping, where he describes it in great detail. Within RDSS % Med is used to determine the ESP by the computer driven formula. Actually the formula is no secret but computers gives consistency of application and is not prone to mistakes like hand application is.This is the one I recommend as its more accurate than the visual ESP or RS ESP in the program. Players frequently believe just because a horse went wire to wire in victory that its an E horse. Most time this isn't true as it slows down on the lead and nothing in the race can challenge it.

One should also choose a pace line that conforms to its normal running style as determined by % Med.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

The best way to use %med is to establish a range [by surface and dist]] that winners
run at the tracks you play. For example at Parx[based on my capping] that range for winners at 6f is currently 68% to 70 %. Horses that run below or above that range normally do not win. I review the horses' entire chart to make sure it consistently runs above or below that range. I require at least 3 such races to be showing before downgrading the horses' chance of winning. Same goes for place[& show] horses for those that play exotics. As for lay off horses I check the trainers' record with such animals and also the pps to see if the horse itself runs well off those types of situations. Finally it must rate high enough on my readouts to be considered for being a possible play.
Tim

[buffaloxp]

i use workouts to check the lay off horse in form, workouts 3f go under 36.0, 4f go under 49.0 5f go under 1.01 is in top form, is a win contenders,

raymond

[dlivery]

i use workouts to check the lay off horse in form, workouts 3f go under 36.0, 4f go under 49.0 5f go under 1.01 is in top form, is a win contenders,

raymond

Those figures sound about right
Thanks for the info

[Mitch44]

Workouts are another indication of form and readiness. Sartin advised and considered any workout that averaged 12 seconds per furlong was a fit and ready horse. I.e. 3 F in 36 or 12 x 3 =36, 4F in 48, 5 F in 60 or 1 minute etc. and so forth.

Within RDSS all workouts are recorded and scored and are a great aide in evaluating a horses' condition or lack there of. Few consult them and more should, also for horses that haven't been laid off.

Mitch44

[ranchwest]

Mitch44, thanks! I understood the basics of % Med. I have programmed most of the MPH calculations. I've just been away from racing for several years and I am seeking new insight. I guess I just thought I was deep into it a few years ago. lol

[ranchwest]

The best way to use %med is to establish a range [by surface and dist]] that winners
run at the tracks you play. For example at Parx[based on my capping] that range for winners at 6f is currently 68% to 70 %. Horses that run below or above that range normally do not win. I review the horses' entire chart to make sure it consistently runs above or below that range. I require at least 3 such races to be showing before downgrading the horses' chance of winning. Same goes for place[& show] horses for those that play exotics. As for lay off horses I check the trainers' record with such animals and also the pps to see if the horse itself runs well off those types of situations. Finally it must rate high enough on my readouts to be considered for being a possible play.
Tim

Interesting. I hadn't considered using % Med as a criteria in selecting a pace line. How significant a consideration do you think that is? I mean, there are so many considerations to make a line "bad". Off track, wrong distance, wrong surface, too many races back, too far back on a young horse. wrong class level, horse stopped, etc. I know it is difficult to place the % Med criteria specifically into the list, but do you have some suggestion as to generally how far up the list of importance you place it?

[Mitch44]

% Med can be used to discount certain horses such as NTL ( need to lead) horses, stretch outs etc.

Certain Match UPs force a horse to run out of its comfort zone or expend their energy too early trying to keep up. Selecting a pace line is not difficult at all, while its an important key to success it really isn't difficult at all. Follow Sartin guidelines for success in picking lines. His later guidelines, which is use the best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. A horse needs to stay within its comfort zone or normal running style to be successful. [B]On the TPR screen look at the red and blue sticks to see its normal style.

I place importance on it and also pay particular attention to any horse that changed its style in its last race, particularity if it changed trainers or distance. Especially if it increased its Tot. Energy in that race. Some trainers are slow to know the proper way to run their horses others never get this. A horse that all of a sudden rates etc. note: not because it got in trouble and had to take up.

Mitch44

[ranchwest]

% Med can be used to discount certain horses such as NTL ( need to lead) horses, stretch outs etc.

Certain Match UPs force a horse to run out of its comfort zone or expend their energy too early trying to keep up. Selecting a pace line is not difficult at all, while its an important key to success it really isn't difficult at all. Follow Sartin guidelines for success in picking lines. His later guidelines, which is use the best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. A horse needs to stay within its comfort zone or normal running style to be successful. [B]On the TPR screen look at the red and blue sticks to see its normal style.

I place importance on it and also pay particular attention to any horse that changed its style in its last race, particularity if it changed trainers or distance. Especially if it increased its Tot. Energy in that race. Some trainers are slow to know the proper way to run their horses others never get this. A horse that all of a sudden rates etc. note: not because it got in trouble and had to take up.

Mitch44

I am looking at 8TDN10 today. Horse has 4 races, 3YO, going 6f.

Line 1: 21 days 5f Ds MY high %M
Line 2: 53 days 5f D FT low %M
Line 3: 282 days 6f D FT high %M
Line 4: 338 days 5.5f D FT high %M

I don't like lines 3 and 4 because they stretch back to the 2yo year.

Line 1 has a question mark because it is a MY track.
Line 2 has a question mark because of the extreme opposite %M.

Which line would you pick? Line 1, even though it is on a MY track?

[Lt1]

Hi Ranch. Just to clear things up I also use the best of the last 3 perceptor lines at a comparable dist and surface for my pace line selection. The use of % Med doesn't come into play for me until I have identified my contenders and given each a paceline.
I use the % med to see if a horse can stretch out or if it distributes its' energy too early or late to win at todays' distances and surface.
Tim

[Lt1]

Just a further note ,based on my record keeping, to be remove from win consideration the horse must have 3 or more races showing these abnormal %meds in its' pps.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Just a further note ,based on my record keeping, to be remove from win consideration the horse must have 3 or more races showing these abnormal %meds in its' pps.
Tim

Thanks. Sorry I didn't get it the first time.

[ranchwest]

Just a further note ,based on my record keeping, to be remove from win consideration the horse must have 3 or more races showing these abnormal %meds in its' pps.
Tim

Do the out of range values all have to be in one direction or can it be some high and some low?

[Lt1]

I look for all too high or too low first. If I encounter a horse[and you will] that has a mix of too high & too low races [for example 2 of each] then out it goes for win re too inconsistent.
Tim

[ranchwest]

I look for all too high or too low first. If I encounter a horse[and you will] that has a mix of too high & too low races [for example 2 of each] then out it goes for win re too inconsistent.
Tim

Thanks. Yes, I consider my elimination factors to be strong in the win position only. As Sartin said, the bottom of the exacta is not the same as the top.

[Mitch44]

Ranch,


In your example I would use line 2. The line it was off 53 days, its the only useable line the horse has if you make it a contender. Prime makes it a contender. It had some early speed in last and the off track may have hindered it. Has enough speed to take the rest out of their game.


The 1,2,5,6 & 9 are all UNKNOWN factors that are FTS or second time starters. Therefore a very iffy race and not a prime betting situation. If you must play just a small fun bet.


Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Sartin said; "Once a horse is off over 30 days there is no difference how long its off."

A horses form cycle is normally 30 days. In your example L 2was the only useable line, it wound not have made any difference if it was 55 days ago or 155 days or 2 55 days.

Besides the horses one needs to look at the race as a whole, hence the unknown factors in this race made it "the race" not a good betting situation. For lines I go where Sartin guidelines take me.

Mitch44

[ranchwest]

Ranch,


In your example I would use line 2. The line it was off 53 days, its the only useable line the horse has if you make it a contender. Prime makes it a contender. It had some early speed in last and the off track may have hindered it. Has enough speed to take the rest out of their game.


The 1,2,5,6 & 9 are all UNKNOWN factors that are FTS or second time starters. Therefore a very iffy race and not a prime betting situation. If you must play just a small fun bet.


Mitch44

Yes, I understand about the race. It was just a horse that showed lines that I wanted opinions on. I originally chose line 2. Now I understand that the elimination is on % Med per Tim. Thanks, I now understand that some horses have some good numbers mixed in with some bad numbers. The line selection is very important, but not the end of the story.

[Mitch44]

At one time getting contenders and picking correct pace lines were critical to success. Today that's changed with advancements beyond our imagination such as Perceptor as an aide etc.

Where most fail today is in not doing analysis and seeking a black box approach. Still they should do better than ever before with the present day RDSS.

Welcome back Ranch, your background of Sartin should aide your future success. Much has changed since the old days such as the improvement of % Med over the old % Early, Perceptor, BLBL, V/DC and RX Factors etc. Focus on the big picture and grasp concept and you'll do fine. Note: see my thread for beginners and read the later Follow Up's as recommended by Ted.

Mitch44

[ranchwest]

Mitch44, where is your thread for beginners?

[dlivery]

Mitch44, where is your thread for beginners?

This should be interesting for a new twist on RDSS:)

[MJS6916]

Beginners & Refresher Course

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12316


I took most of my notes starting from page 5, post #46

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12316&page=5


Good luck

[ranchwest]

Thanks, MJS6916!

[ranchwest]

The best way to use %med is to establish a range [by surface and dist]] that winners
run at the tracks you play. For example at Parx[based on my capping] that range for winners at 6f is currently 68% to 70 %. Horses that run below or above that range normally do not win. I review the horses' entire chart to make sure it consistently runs above or below that range. I require at least 3 such races to be showing before downgrading the horses' chance of winning. Same goes for place[& show] horses for those that play exotics. As for lay off horses I check the trainers' record with such animals and also the pps to see if the horse itself runs well off those types of situations. Finally it must rate high enough on my readouts to be considered for being a possible play.
Tim

How common is it to find horses with 3 instances of being out of range? In other words, are you setting the range fairly tight or somewhat loose?

[Lt1]

Hi Ranch. It's strictly case by case. When a horse has 3 instances I mark it as at early or late. When it hits 4 then I mark it too early or late. In some races all of your contenders will be at or above the %med level for the dist. In that case fall back to the other factors that are winning at that track. This is why, IMO, record keeping is important.
Tim

[dlivery]

Beginners & Refresher Course

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12316


I took most of my notes starting from page 5, post #46

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12316&page=5


Good luck

Thank You
for the instant results :)

[ranchwest]

Tim, I can see where one would need to adapt to changes, but it looks like some valuable information. It is perilous on a muddy track, though. I am sure you know that.

[Lt1]

Yes Ranch off tracks can prove tough but I have found that the stronger contenders still usually prove best unless they have shown that they can't handle the off track.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Yes Ranch off tracks can prove tough but I have found that the stronger contenders still usually prove best unless they have shown that they can't handle the off track.
Tim

Spot on! I have been away from handicapping for a while, so I am paper betting on whatever is on YouTube. Yesterday, the track was at that awful drying out stage and all the frontrunners in a race slowed to a crawl and this always late horse comes from out of the clouds. So, I am inclined to look for a similar horse after that and, just as you say, they all ran fairly normally after that race. Ha! As always, thanks for your help.

[ranchwest]

Hi Ranch. It's strictly case by case. When a horse has 3 instances I mark it as at early or late. When it hits 4 then I mark it too early or late. In some races all of your contenders will be at or above the %med level for the dist. In that case fall back to the other factors that are winning at that track. This is why, IMO, record keeping is important.
Tim

Do you have separate standards for %M for turf and dirt? Or do you employ this on turf?

[MJS6916]

Thanks, MJS6916!


Thank You
for the instant results :)


No problem guys. Glad to help when I can.

Knock'em dead at the windows.

[Lt1]

Ranch I keep a win and place model by surface and dist for each track I play. So yes I employ %med for turf races.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Ranch I keep a win and place model by surface and dist for each track I play. So yes I employ %med for turf races.
Tim

Thanks!

I think I must be learning well. I won't go overboard with the red boarding, but let's just say I had an incredible day paper bet picking Saratoga today.

[Mr.Pagine]

Today I played Delaware, and I learned to trust the process, it worked fantastic.
These posts helped me a TON.

Happy Punting,
Jon