Del Mar / Race of the day week 2

[admin]

I am going to start a new thread for week # 2 7/26-
I will work a race again as Rich is unavalable

The feature is race 8 for 2YO If you don't mind I would rather
pass that race . I would rather do race 5 which also happens to be the Del Mar race of the day contest race

[admin]

all horses hides to follow
Horse 1

[admin]

Horse 2

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Race 5

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Race 5

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Race 5

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Horse 7 race 5

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Race 5

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Race 5

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Race 5

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Race 5

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Race 5

[admin]

apv / S.C.R / SR

1. 99.4% 0.83 s74
2. 108.7% 1.11 80
3. 71.1% 0.76 82 NTI
4 52.2% 0.88 78
5. 198.8% 1.39 79
6. 67.6% 0.84 75 Hide for win
7. 118.0% 0.92 77 LRH
8. 110.0% 0.75 slow
9. 143.0% 1.34 73 slow
10 100.1% 1.12 79
11. 90.7% 1.02 76 Form
12. 91.8% 0.79 78 NTI

[admin]

Here she is

[admin]

before hides per screen

I will first hide the 1 6 and 9

[Forego]

apv / S.C.R / SR

1. 99.4% 0.83 s74
2. 108.7% 1.11 80
3. 71.1% 0.76 82 NTI
4 52.2% 0.88 78
5. 198.8% 1.39 79
6. 67.6% 0.84 75 Hide for win
7. 118.0% 0.92 77 LRH
8. 110.0% 0.75 slow
9. 143.0% 1.34 73 slow
10 100.1% 1.12 79
11. 90.7% 1.02 76 Form
12. 91.8% 0.79 78 NTI

Hi Binder,
when you get a chance could you explain the second and third columns and what you are using them for? I recognize and understand the apv column.

[admin]

with the non contenders out

[admin]

Horses are all early
These are 3YO Fillies !!!

[admin]

I just was listeng to the Val 2 demo tape
and Doc was talking about wire to wire horses at the del mar meet

since its all early here in race 5 I will throw out the worst of the E/EPRS
out goes the 11 and 12

[admin]

Ok I think I will agree with the program
These are young horses and the 3 will need to improve
over her best race showing with not so hot apv and SCR ratings
but at 12/1 I will take a shot
The 2 looks solid
my hope is the 10 with her over 70% med will also loose energy at the end
My bets win 2 and 3

Hope they run
GS
Bill

[admin]

Ok I think I will agree with the program
These are young horses and the 3 will need to improve
over her best race showing with not so hot apv and SCR ratings
but at 12/1 I will take a shot
The 2 looks solid
my hope is the 10 with her over 70% med will also lose energy at the end
My bets win 2 and 3

Hope they run
GS
Bill

Not to bad but it goes as a loss or MISS if you will
My picks ran 2nd and 3rd to the 5 the favorite that paid $6.00

[admin]

Filling in again for Rich
Todays race is also for 3YO fillies on the Del Mar weeds

here are the conditions

[admin]

Horse 1

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Horse 2

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Horse 3

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Horse 4

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Horse 5

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Horse 6

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Horse 8

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Horse 9

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horse 10

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Horse 12

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Turf Apv CR SR
1. 97.7% 0.89 78 -74
2. 82.% 0.91 80
3. --
4. --
5. 100.4% 0.72 81
6. 70.7 % 1.11 82
8. 26.0% 0.53 78
9. 99.4% 1.00 80
10. -----
12. 52.1% 0.59 75

[admin]

Hi Binder,
when you get a chance could you explain the second and third columns and what you are using them for? I recognize and understand the apv column.

Mr Beckman

I discovered this screen when I was trying out the Energy program
At this same time I was reading the very first Follow Ups
I had never seen a Sartin Class rating so I started to try it out
The apv ranking as you said is what it is
The class rating ? I'm not sure ?
I think its a measure of the value of wins places and shows
based on the percentage of total earnings
The higher the number over 1.00 the better the horse has been doing
class wise a number under 100 means its class is under the entered purse value of this race ?

I am not sure at all really ! here is the catch I don't know what
these ratings mean but I do think they help me

When I was using the Energy program I did notice that entering numbers
(for me ) helped me get a better feeling for each horse
much more than just looking at the lines
But as well as I did with Energy the hand entry was just too
much and it was easy to make a mistake

Entering the numbers for the APV anc Class ratings is not hard
Actually for me its fun to do. It takes just a few minutes per race

Here is a screen shot of the Energy APV-Class rating screen
This is for horse # 1 in todays race
The purse is $64.000
Its a turf race so I use the turf earnings
Starts = 5
Wins = 0
Place = 2
Show = 0
Turf Earnings $25,155
Thats it. I have to just enter these 6 numbers
the program does the calculating
I notice class and apv better when I do this simple step
than looking at $5,031 - 4 Earnings Per Start
It helps me other ways too
In yesterdays race for horse #9. I entered this for horse 9
8 - 0 - 2 - 3
Its apv was 143% - which was second highest (the winner was the highest)
Its SCR was 1.34 also high but its speed rating was 73
which was the lowest in the race
While I was doing this step I saw that 0/8 and the low SR
so I just made a note that the 9 was a good horse just too slow
for these I noted she seemed to follow horses NFW = Not - For - Win

here is the screen for horse # 1 in todays race
Nothing works all the time
But The top 5 of the Class rating almost always
the winner is one of these
I hope i'm not wrong with this I would really like to learn more about these
numbers
Bill

[admin]

I ran out of time I have to leave for work
I will finish the race later as soon as I get home
Have a good day
GS
Bill

[admin]

Here are the pacelines

[admin]

I will hid the 12
no late energy poor ratings allaround

[admin]

I will hide the 6

[admin]

Ok here is the final BLBL
my view
I will take a little something on the 8 @20/1 Ml
My two win bets are the 2 and the 9
the 1 troubles me but its from that crazy 7.5 distance and the 3rd
fraction is all it has
I hope it works out
GS
Bill

[Forego]

Mr Beckman

I discovered this screen when I was trying out the Energy program
At this same time I was reading the very first Follow Ups
I had never seen a Sartin Class rating so I started to try it out
The apv ranking as you said is what it is
The class rating ? I'm not sure ?
I think its a measure of the value of wins places and shows
based on the percentage of total earnings
The higher the number over 1.00 the better the horse has been doing
class wise a number under 100 means its class is under the entered purse value of this race ?

I am not sure at all really ! here is the catch I don't know what
these ratings mean but I do think they help me

When I was using the Energy program I did notice that entering numbers
(for me ) helped me get a better feeling for each horse
much more than just looking at the lines
But as well as I did with Energy the hand entry was just too
much and it was easy to make a mistake

Entering the numbers for the APV anc Class ratings is not hard
Actually for me its fun to do. It takes just a few minutes per race

Here is a screen shot of the Energy APV-Class rating screen
This is for horse # 1 in todays race
The purse is $64.000
Its a turf race so I use the turf earnings
Starts = 5
Wins = 0
Place = 2
Show = 0
Turf Earnings $25,155
Thats it. I have to just enter these 6 numbers
the program does the calculating
I notice class and apv better when I do this simple step
than looking at $5,031 - 4 Earnings Per Start
It helps me other ways too
In yesterdays race for horse #9. I entered this for horse 9
8 - 0 - 2 - 3
Its apv was 143% - which was second highest (the winner was the highest)
Its SCR was 1.34 also high but its speed rating was 73
which was the lowest in the race
While I was doing this step I saw that 0/8 and the low SR
so I just made a note that the 9 was a good horse just too slow
for these I noted she seemed to follow horses NFW = Not - For - Win

here is the screen for horse # 1 in todays race
Nothing works all the time
But The top 5 of the Class rating almost always
the winner is one of these
I hope i'm not wrong with this I would really like to learn more about these
numbers
Bill

bill,
thank you for such a detailed explanation. the things i have learned here in a few months is helping me. i wish you much success.

[admin]

Not to good today
The one ran well but the 2 and 9 did not run at all
oh well The favorite # 6 won anyway
2 misses in a row

[RichieP]

Not to good today
The one ran well but the 2 and 9 did not run at all
oh well The favorite # 6 won anyway
2 misses in a row

Good morning Bill
**** those were 2 tough races and the chalk happened to win both of them. I worked them both before and definitely woulda lost both for sure.

that class and Apv thing you laid out is interesting.

Let's see what shakes out today.
Rich

[RichieP]

ok the feature looks like race 7 - 6f allowance wth a huge field.

Let's go:)

horse 1- f3 prefers line 2 over line 3 and f4 says it's a keeper

[RichieP]

horse 2

I dont like the e/l on this guy for line 2. the line is good as far as being off a layoff which is what exists today. However my gut is telling me this e/l for THIS guy is no good.

I'll leave the line in for now and make a note on f9 tab which u see. no way I bet this guy for MYSELF. if he wins he wins.

line 2

[RichieP]

horse 3

no line. line 2 is mclm win and today is in for alw 60000 purse. took him 10 races to break maiden against crap horses.

In this race for THIS horse I gotta pass on him man.

I pass - no line

he will get smoked by other "earlies"

[RichieP]

horse 4

line 2 is best BUT wild early on e/l. no way

let's go to line 1 please

[RichieP]

horse 5

off 800 days

next

[RichieP]

horse 6

well a bunch of off track Nocal lines here

however the e/l's on them are VERY consistent when comparing with lower lines on the pp's so it's all good

line 4 looks ok working around that last race "turf tune up"

[RichieP]

horse 7

shows 2 turf sprints lifetime -both **** speed ratings

go head and beat me

no line

[RichieP]

horse 8

3 yr old comes into this off year lay for top trainer

steady work tab - speed rating shown was as 2 yr old - can improve large here

this one looks legit

line selection is tough ha? :)

[RichieP]

horse 9

possible longshot horse -might be vicious coming down the stretch at a PRICE

line 2

[RichieP]

horse 10

line 2 as only usable one

little light on speed rating

[RichieP]

horse 11

the ml fav who is off 300 days

anothe rhorse who's speed raing shown is from a 2 yr old race

eligible to move forward big

line 1

[RichieP]

finally horse 12

another with a 2 yr old speed fig which is good and can be inproved on

line 2

[RichieP]

ok now the **** hits the fan.

look I am hiding the number 2 horse. This si the horse earlier I had the question on and used the f9 tab to mark ok?

he is top total energy - 2nd line score - 2nd supp

here are the reasons why :

1) took 10 races to beat maiden claimers now faces these. ranked SEVENTH turn time which is NOT good sign.

2) look at the fractal "N" please. see the 6 ?? something is wrong with this man. tell tale sign that if the race runs "normal" he is ****ed.

3) line used was 5.5f - not feeling this at all here

so if the horse wins I look insane :eek:

HIDING THE # 2 AS MARKED ON BOTTOM

[RichieP]

with the 2 removed let's go to the Perceptor screen for a couple of quick obvious ( ??) hides.


the 4 and 10 are both clearly the one's to go

Hiding the 4 and 10

[RichieP]

with 6 remaining moving to the bl/bl screen for help

gonna hide the 8 .

5th ranked on primary and supp

5th on Cpr

6th on FX

this is one of the 2 yr old speed figs who CAN improve here big time

you know what though? at 4/1 ml he has some negative looks and if he wins
well so be it

hiding the 8 as shown on bottom

[RichieP]

here is the summary screen of the final 5

[RichieP]

here is the bl/bl with corrolaries

the # 9 has a FIVE point gap on line score - he is 10/1 ml

after him LOOK how close the other 4 are - virtually all tied

keep a close watch on the 12 - in my opinion his fractals are very very steady
has good fx and tpp

how the hell anyone could take short odds on a horse in THIS race is beyond my comprehension

race goes off around 10 tonight here in the east

full result chart to be posted in the morning
Rich

[RichieP]

please fogive my spelling. it looks right when I type it then afterwards I am like " what the **** was I "seeing".

cant edit it either as time has expired

think I might be dyslexic or something

safe day

Rich

[Houndog]

Another great analysis Richie. The trainer of #9 Bruce Headly is 7 for 24 with horses laid off over 90 days at Del Mar for a 29% win and also 46% ITM. This covers the last 3 meets at Del Mar. I don't know if anyone pays attention to these types of stats but I find them useful sometimes.

This 29% win is higher in this category then his overall win% in the past 3 meets at Del Mar which is 15%. Almost twice as good.

[Fast4522]

I am going to go with 9836 in this race I like the 9

[RichieP]

The 4 takes it like a champ at loong odds. Not on my radar screen

Rich

[RichieP]

today's feature is the Bing Crosby at 6f. small field.

Will Bing sing?

horse 1

[RichieP]

horse 2

[RichieP]

horse 3

[RichieP]

horse 4

[RichieP]

horse 5

[RichieP]

horse 6

[RichieP]

ok here is the bl/bl screen with corrolaries.

I am gonna hide the bottom horse # 3 who shows single digit line score.

you can use a deeper line in his pp's because of form cycle/ layoff pattern and he will be MAJOR force.

I choose not to.

hiding the 3 as seen on bottom

[RichieP]

here are our final contenders

this is the matchup screen

[RichieP]

summary screen

[RichieP]

bl/bl with corrolaries

[RichieP]

well a bomb winner who we see BUT tier 5 is nothing.

Fitting a bomb wins for Bing!

go head

Richie