The "Shilee" horse

[RichieP]

What do you do when the horse you figure as the projected pacesetter also has run an opening quarter mile that nobody in the field has PLUS he did it while FIGHTING for the lead ???

Answer: you run to the window and trust the matchup :)

here are the pp's for the whole field from last night at Mnr - race 5 at 8f

[RichieP]

the 1 horse was the only scratch in the race.

here are the race conditions and the pp's for the 2 horse

[RichieP]

the 3 and 4 horse

[RichieP]

the 5 and 6

[RichieP]

the 7 and 8 " Shilee"

[RichieP]

the 9 and 10

[RichieP]

projecting pace is easy. the 8 "Shilee" from the last race at 8.3f

1c - 48.3
2c - 115.0
ft - 147 - to get to a mile time subtract 4.2 to get us to 142.3 for 8f

[RichieP]

ok using that pace lets start tossing the field :eek:

the 2 and 3 are history

[RichieP]

ok let's deal with the 4 one on one - he shows a fast pace to 2c BUT then completely folds tent man.

Now LOOK at the first quarter mile for him - 24.1 first by a head

LOOK at the 8 "Shilee" first quarter - 23.4 in first by a head - He's FIGHTING in a much faster time than the 4 PLUS NO horse in the field can match this quarter forget about even having any kind of ability to fight.

Shilee also went on and drew out after doing this fighting. end of story

[RichieP]

the 5 and 6

[RichieP]

the 7 who went off as even money fav

can someone please explain that to me??? are they serious??

[RichieP]

the 9 horse.

ok I hope this makes sense. This horse if u look at 2 back pace of race beats the 8 . HOWEVER what I am learning is that the horse is gonna show basically the same style - SUSTAINED against almost any pace it faces ok?

so while it looks great on paper the reality very well might be he is gonna have this position even against slower pace.

so if u look for a line closest to todays pace say line 4 which has BOTH a 23.4 first quarter and a 2c somewhat in the ballpark of the 8 when matching line for line against the 8 you see the 8 KILLS him off ok?

This is one of the biggest things I am learning recently - to let my mind "see" that horses like this are going to assume comfortable places in the pack based on their style and that will be against paces of all different types.
This is BIG as it explains a lot of things that confused the hell out of me.

This horse btw ran 2nd to the 8 Shilee

[RichieP]

the result chart of the race

Matchup heaven :D

[RichieP]

ALL of this makes a lot more sense when we begin anaysis of the race at the FIRST call.

1) Running styles

2) "reactions" to various paces

3) ability to "fight"

4) ability to identify these " suck along" horses who really just follow whatever pace is being set while having a ZERO impact on the race itself.

while everyone is busy "looking right" on the pp line ( speed ratings,variants, finish position etc)
a change of focus to "looking left" ( 1c,break, style etc) might bring some added profits man. VERY few are doing this. NOT " in vogue".

ok

safe day
Richie

[shoeless]

All I can say is IM A BELIEVER.Jeff

[RichieP]

All I can say is IM A BELIEVER.Jeff

lol