what a race takes from a horse

[tompkins]

These are animals we are looking at, not machines. They over-exert themselves regularly and it takes it's toll (more on fillies), but imagine what you would be like the next day after doing more than you really should have physically. The lower class of the animal, the more energy it takes in locomotion. They pay the price for it and the effect is accumulative.

When I helped out around the barns, I was simply amazed at how many a claimer would not eat for days, barely able to hold his head up let alone move about. Many have to stand in buckets of ice water to numb tender limbs. Yet, many people fail to understand when there is a down turn in the form cycle, they will use a pp line far back in time before this wear and tear was dulling the form.

Whenever you base a horse's projection today on a line 3rd back or greater, run the LAST THREE lines through the long shot detector to see if this one's last three P.O.R has been easier. If the animal is NOT keeping up to an easier pace over a three race segment (barring a trouble line that could explain it) be very wary of using it. These guys aren't like humans, they are honest all the time and will tell you it is time for a rest.

[Houndog]

I would agree with you, and it becomes more apparent the cheaper the horse. I am wary of going back for a paceline with the lower class horses. The window in their form cycle is much smaller then with their classier counterparts.

I think this is what seperates the competent trainers from the losing trainers you find at every race meet. These types of trainers enter horses at the wrong level, wrong distance, and cannot read a condition book. I am not really looking for a super trainer, but I am trying to eliminate a horse if it is being trained by someone with a record like 1-50, or 3-100, etc. This is not part of the Sartin Methodology but it works for me.