Wow!

[RichieP]

This is a race from Calder on Saturday that I lost.

I lost my win bet. I had the horse that placed at 18/1.

Jim worked the race with me afterwards and he showed me something that I HAVE to share here with you ok?

It is so far out of the realm of conventional capping it's ridiculous man. I called him up and asked if it was ok to post the race and try to explain what he showed me. He said " go ahead Rich".

I promise I will do my best to explain this concept. THIS is one of those things he does that can't be explained and people then label with a creative name like " voodoo" or " witchcraft".

I am going to show the pp's for every horse in the race right after supper and then lay it out.

This ain't voodoo man. It's the Matchup. I LOVE this.
Richie

[RichieP]

Here are the race conditions and distance. Also the pp's for the 1 horse

[RichieP]

the 2 horse

[RichieP]

the 3 horse

[RichieP]

the 4 horse

[RichieP]

the 5 horse

[RichieP]

the 6 horse

[RichieP]

the 7 horse

[RichieP]

the 8 horse

[RichieP]

starting off we scroll the horses and isentify running styles. To me there are 2of them.

1 horse - line 4 - 22.1 - 45.1 - 111.0 ( from the Meadowlands, a faster surface than Calder)

4 horse - line 2 - 22.4 - 46.0 - 112.4 - 127.4 - ( Today's track and distance)

I know that the Meadowlands line is faster BUT feel the 1 is definitely gonna be the lead horse today. The gap between him and the 4 at the 1c - 2c and STRETCH call are too great in my mind.

The 1 is the lead horse ( although NOT sure HOW fast the race will go. HONESTLY). I do NOT refer to track records, par time charts etc etc. Gotta go by "feel" and what my mind is telling me. ok

the 4 is now history and removed from consideration.

[RichieP]

ok the 4 is gone. let's get rid of some others now

Since the rest of the horses are Calder guys the 2 fastest INCLUDING pace of race and Position and beaten lenghts are the

6 horse - last line - 21.4 - 45.3 - 112.4

8 horse - last line - 22.0 - 45.3 - 112.2 - 119.3

Let's keep them.

Eliminations:

2 horse - destroyed by the 8 horse in tandem 2 races back - out

3 horse - too slow and deep sustained style - out

4 horse eliminated by the 1 in " battle of the earlies"

5 horse - ridiculously slow - out

7 horse - slow roach - out

[RichieP]

Ok left with the

1 - Early

6 - Presser

8 - Presser

the styles on the 6 and 8 can vary to sustained presser I guess. To be honest This is what I had and thought the 1 was a cinch. Bet him and watched him run 2nd at huge odds to the 6 . LOSS - sonofabitc*

here is the pp's for the 1 horse one more time - focus on his running style - pure need to lead early showing NO ability to FIGHT a horse if headed -

Please REMEMBER that last bit ok - if it is HEADED it shows nothing in it's pp's to show it will FIGHT. It NEEDS an open lead to WIN.

[RichieP]

ok here are the pp's for the winning 6 horse again - now look at his 1st fraction from the race - 21.4 -- ok now the leading 1 horse 1st fraction - 22.1

Hat's description of what happens now:

1) The 6 horse has a 2 tick advantage at the 1st call over the 1. Ok Rich subtract those 2 ticks from the 6's POSITION at the 1st call of HIS race and what POSITION does that put him in TODAY. Position - 5th take away 2 ticks - Position TODAY at 1st call - 3rd at worst

2) Now using the 6's paceline what did he do from his 1st call to 2nd call POSITIONALLY? went from 5th to 3rd - gain of 2 POSITIONS - ok if he is 3rd TODAY at 1c give him his 2 position gain and apply to TODAYS race.

1c- 3rd
2c - gain of 2 POSITIONS so is moving to the leader ( the 1 horse) NOW

3) Now we HAVE to remember from earlier that the leading 1 horse has NOT proven himself a FIGHTER ok? at the 2nd call he is being attacked by the 6 horse. Now move to the 6 horse's POSITION at the stretch call of the last race. he moves from 3rd at 2c to 2nd at stretch right? A GAIN of 1 position.

apply that gain to todays scenario and lo and behold the 6 at the STRETCH call has fought and PASSED the 1 horse.

The 6 in its race goes on to win and projecting to today it is projected to WIN today's matchup over the 1

[RichieP]

ok if you take the remaining contender and do the same matching you will see he does NOT match up like the 6 did.

TRY it.


here is the result chart . Look how the race actually ran POSITIONALLY compared to what Jim described.

I am sitting here with kinda chills typing this because for ME a light bulb went on when he did this with me ok? That's why I had to ask him if I can try and post it. I HAVE to attempt it.

THIS " thing" is at least one of the things he does that makes folks shake their heads and attach all kinds of words to it baby.

I have to practice this a LOT more but I actually SEE a bit of it man.

This ain't voodoo. It's Jim's matchup and now I am STARTING to see it. I can't believe it.

Jim I hope I made some kind of sense in describing the technique you are teaching me. **** I HAD to try and explain it out of RESPECT and appreciation for all you have done for me!

Sonofabitch if I saw this before the race I am still counting the cash Hat:)

Richie

[THE HAT]

Rich,

Great job in describing the race. You explained the race as I explained it
to you. You make me proud.
Sure the 1 horse paid more to place than the 6 horse paid to win, but you
throw away a ticket if you be the 1 to win, ask Rich.
By the way this isn't something made up, because I bet the 6 horse to win.

The Hat

[VoodooFan]

3) Now we HAVE to remember from earlier that the leading 1 horse has NOT proven himself a FIGHTER ok?



Good refresher.

Horse, really, has NEVER had the lead in PP's, except breaking 1st out the gate, but fought for the lead.

Looks like different stress on a horse fighting in 2nd by a head/neck for the lead vs ACTUALLY HAVING the lead and fighting OFF another [want-to-lead] horse.

Being pressed vs being the presser.

2nd by a head is FIGHTING for the lead, NOT having the lead....there may be a pronounced difference.

Fighting for the lead, but not actually having it = on the Offensive.

Having the lead and fighting off want-the-lead horse = on the Defensive.

The best defense is a good offense? Defense wins championships?

Drafting, like bicyclist?

Harder when you are on top vs chasing something thats already established....maybe something to think about.

Like I said, lots of study material here with old MatchUp post.

It's only "old" if you have truly and thoroughly mastered it.

Reading THE HAT'S comments never gets tiring.

VoodooFan