Step by Step 11.0 race

[admin]

This is my step by step look how I did this
weeks Friday night race of the week 8/25 race 7 Del Mar
I would like to say that there are no 100% rules
with the methodology.,Only guidelines and lately as per Doc's
suggestion ,Looking at a little more than just numbers
a little bit of intuition really helps

The race was 11 furlongs for Fillies and Mares 3 and Up
Many of the horses never ran any race close to this distance
I based much of my feeling on horse # 7 which won at 10
furlongs two races back with a raw final time of 200.2
Spec adjusted this to 211.1. I decided to use 10 furlongs
as the distance of the race.

The first step I did was the APV - Class Ratings
I posted this in the race of the week area I will repeat them here
I left out horse 8 but it was very weak 21.8% and 0.39
I added my notes to each horse they were vital in this race

[admin]

Oh kay From the APV-CR The 7 is the key in this race
at 7/5 ML and the class of the field I used line 2 a win at 10 furlongs in a
$150,000 Grade 2 race at hollywood Todays purse is $85,000

[admin]

This is a look at horse 7 with the original lines
shown after hitting the F2 button
Look at line 2 the final time was 200.2 on the EQulized line on top it became 211.1

[admin]

The 2nd favorite was the Entry The solid #1 looks good on APV and CR
so I will go to the 4th line. I'm looking at this race as 10 furlongs
and the purse of line 2 is $200.000 so I will give # 1 a break and us line 4
its adjusted final time is 213.1 It won its race Line 4 with a raw time of 201.2
close to the 7's 200.2

[admin]

This one rates well on the APV-CR so I will give it a line.
Line 3 from 9.0 furlongs looks like the race to use
with a final adjusted time of 213.3
Why not line 1? a win at 11 furlongs ?
the adjusted final time was 214.8
Plus I am using 10 furlongs as the distance

[admin]

A non contender with a very poor APV CR

[admin]

The winner I used Line 1
Reason ? feelings and looking at more than numbers
and this time my stupid
feel sorry for the connections and the trainer mentality helped
The APV and Class ratings are very strong (for this field)
I know Im betting as my first win bet either the entry or the 7
so now I'm looking for value and an edge
The APV and CR tell me it ok
I used the last line because of the purse of $80,000
Line 2 and 3 are bad races finish wise at 8.0 furlong
the get 0's In the form cycle I gave line 1 a 0+ for a nice gain from the
stretch to the finish what about line 4 at ten furlongs ?
This is the line I should us and call # 3 a non contender
I went with the last line instead because of the form cycle
good effort in a bad race 0+ rating and a second try at 11
furlongs in a comperable purse value

[admin]

A non contender Very poor APV but good Class
however all the adjusted final times seemed to slow
value yes but not winning this race

[admin]

This one needs Very strong readouts with Poor apv and a lower than
normal winning CR
In my head I have been looking at the CR numbers for a cut off point
so for between my memory and tracking only 10 races on paper
a low point on the CR for me is 93 Nothing is 100%
and 10 races on paper is too small a sample
However asking for 11 furlongs and also to beat two solid favorites
with an 80 CR and only 52% APV seems too much
I left it as a contender only so I could judge its readouts

[admin]

Horse 6 is very similar to horse 5
with a stronger APV but slightly less Class rating
plus the distance of 11 furlongs makes this one a question
only very good readouts can help
I will enter it

[admin]

We already know about horse 7 Horse 8 was way too low in APV CR

so thats everyone. Now I have entered 6 horse, the entry and horses
3 5 6 and 7. I always work with 5 horses to look for winning patterns
I hide to the top five from the Perceptor scren so the 1a is out

[admin]

Now here is the summary
With Spec I only look at the E/L and the TS-Delc readouts up in the uppper right hand corner

what to bet
I have a few options
The 7 and the 1 rate best but no value ...
The 7 and the 5 or the 3 ??....
hide both the 7 and the 1 and
bet the 5 and the 3 ...
I commited to the APV and Cr readouts and
am more leaning toward the 7
for the value bet I will stick with the 3

one more time
# 3 APV CR = 98.4% - 0.94
# 5 APV CR = 74.2% - 0.78
and it worked out
Thanks I hope this helped explain how I bet the 7 and the 3

[RichieP]

The winner I used Line 1
Reason ? feelings and looking at more than numbers
and this time my stupid
feel sorry for the connections and the trainer mentality helped
The APV and Class ratings are very strong (for this field)
I know Im betting as my first win bet either the entry or the 7
so now I'm looking for value and an edge
The APV and CR tell me it ok
I used the last line because of the purse of $80,000
Line 2 and 3 are bad races finish wise at 8.0 furlong
the get 0's In the form cycle I gave line 1 a 0+ for a nice gain from the
stretch to the finish what about line 4 at ten furlongs ?
This is the line I should us and call # 3 a non contender
I went with the last line instead because of the form cycle
good effort in a bad race 0+ rating and a second try at 11
furlongs in a comperable purse value


Wow very interesting look at this horse man. VERY interesting. Thank you for taking time to spell it out Bill. Let me keep reading please.
Rich

[RichieP]

This one needs Very strong readouts with Poor apv and a lower than
normal winning CR
In my head I have been looking at the CR numbers for a cut off point
so for between my memory and tracking only 10 races on paper
a low point on the CR for me is 93 Nothing is 100%
and 10 races on paper is too small a sample
However asking for 11 furlongs and also to beat two solid favorites
with an 80 CR and only 52% APV seems too much
I left it as a contender only so I could judge its readouts

Son of a gun - sly like a fox - so now the RECORD KEEPING surfaces :D

go head

[RichieP]

I always work with 5 horses to look for winning patterns


ok may I ask WHY 5 horses? I have seen you focus ONLY on races where you can get FIVE guys.
Rich

[RichieP]

Now here is the summary
With Spec I only look at the E/L and the TS-Delc readouts up in the uppper right hand corner

what to bet
I have a few options
The 7 and the 1 rate best but no value ...
The 7 and the 5 or the 3 ??....
hide both the 7 and the 1 and
bet the 5 and the 3 ...
I commited to the APV and Cr readouts and
am more leaning toward the 7
for the value bet I will stick with the 3

one more time
# 3 APV CR = 98.4% - 0.94
# 5 APV CR = 74.2% - 0.78
and it worked out
Thanks I hope this helped explain how I bet the 7 and the 3

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

I have been losing these long winded marathons for YEARS Bill. I would zig and zag between using the shorter distance horses - not using them etc etc

Now you have given me a SOLID handle and approach to look at these suckers next time they come up.

Tired of losing these sonsabitches.

Very well thought out.
Very well written
Clear with specifics

I am serious. I owe you big time for this and KNOW this had to take probably a couple of hours to piece together and write.

THANK YOU Bill

Rich

[admin]

Thank You Rich

Yes it is worth the work

to answer you question I always work with 5 horses
When I us Spec Val3 (vector) or hand entry EXDc
when I look at a constant 5 horses the readouts and the Ealy
late sticks show me patterns, In this race the 3 TS and 3 Del
somehow in my mind said bet me
the # 1 TS and weak 4 DEl for the 7 should have tipped
me off to bet an exacta with the 6
hey but its easy to look back,,
That really is the reason That I need 5 horses

[Fast4522]

Sure after the fact anyone can move lines around to formulate a "Way To Go" next time, but really what you should say is Read The Racing Form. Just looking at the horse in the form, the 3 jumped right off the page for me. These people are in the game for the money, that is why they enter the race to begin with. This is where Sartin falls off the table and into the basket, people who could read the form and pick winners without a computer start using software and stop reading the form. Sartin programs lines look nothing like the form you buy at the track RIP Guy. Beacuse if they did there would not be this spell checker problem. Notice folks can not spell much today without microsoft word spell checher handy? Why do folks do well with Val M, duh, is it because they still read the racing form?

[admin]

Thank You for you opinion
I am working on being able to use my eyeball scan
and use the DRF when needed
I am a little hurt that you feel I would fudge my lines
after the fact, Problem is then it was voodoo that I picked the
winner in the FNRW hours before and posted it hours before, And if it was so clear to the public why did it pay $25.00??? You opinion is noted
Good Skill
Bill V

[admin]

Here is another one that worked out OK
this time I used Vector (val3 windows)
again the key APV-CR are added to the BL/BL

[admin]

I will take the $49.00 for the Trifecta

[Fast4522]

My post was not about you or your lines, said something about "how to" "way to go" for next time. we all disect the races later by moving lines around, at least I do. What I ment was reading the racing form, nothing to do with you re-ordering lines. Noting the trap we all have been in wearing blinders and just trusting the lines we pick to be the magic pill. So I was not picking on what your lines at all, but just saying that software will not do it all from lines every time. There are many a race that will not be picked by software but will be picked by the old way of reading the form.

[shoeless]

Bill,I just want to let you know there are by far more of us who appreciated that you took the time to put up that race in the first place.Jeff

[admin]

I'm glad that I could help out
I don't mind doing the work since it might help
out a friend or two

GS
Bill V

[racer100]

This is my step by step look how I did this
weeks Friday night race of the week 8/25 race 7 Del Mar
I would like to say that there are no 100% rules
with the methodology.,Only guidelines and lately as per Doc's
suggestion ,Looking at a little more than just numbers
a little bit of intuition really helps

The race was 11 furlongs for Fillies and Mares 3 and Up
Many of the horses never ran any race close to this distance
I based much of my feeling on horse # 7 which won at 10
furlongs two races back with a raw final time of 200.2
Spec adjusted this to 211.1. I decided to use 10 furlongs
as the distance of the race.

The first step I did was the APV - Class Ratings
I posted this in the race of the week area I will repeat them here
I left out horse 8 but it was very weak 21.8% and 0.39
I added my notes to each horse they were vital in this race

Hello everyone,
I am new to this forum and a recent user of Spec 1.60 but I catch up fast. Bill, thanks for doing such diligent work on posting the analysis for this race. It is something we can all learn from. It seems to me that the key to your analysis here is the initial APV class rating. Can you elaborate in few words the rules that you use in arriving at this class rating under Spec 1.60? Is this a separate program that is available? or was it done by hand by you? Thanks in advance for your help.

[admin]

Hi Racer100

I use an old Sartin hand entry program called EXDC
Most of the older programs,as far as I can tell
had this same feature to calculate the APV and Class ratings

I use this program
Let me show you how I used it for a horse using Spec160 and EXDC
This horse won on Saturday. I listed it as
APV. 101.0
CR. 0.70

My attachment will map out were I look for the information
I hand enter into EXDC

I use these numbers a guide to the ability of a horse
against the others in the race not as a wagering factor
what I mean is
Superstone has an APV of 101.0% to me this means in its
most current races Its been running at this level - 100% is equal

But Its Class Rating is only 0.70
This tells me that its not doing that well in those races.
This raised a red flag for me as ,for me usually my winners
rate over .90 in CR
I probably don't want to give this horse too
much help. I used its last line with its highest
ever speed rating of 84 But if it were line 3 I would use
its last line unless it had an excuse

Here is my mapped out attachment
any questions are welcome I will try to explian my method

[shoeless]

Bill,Nice job on that,STAY WARM.Jeff

[racer100]

Bill, thanks for the very clear depiction on your selection process. I googled EXDC and found that it was posted as a zip file along with Thoromation but the link did not work anymore. Would you be kind enough to zip it up and post it here for download or point me somewhere where I can pick it up?
As a contribution to this board I found something very interesting that improves my selection win %. DRF recently introduced as a beta the Moss Pace Figures in addition to the Beyer numbers. I always found Beyers figures to be useless, but I gave a shot to the Moss Pace Figures which I use to select the best PP for either Spec 1.60 or Speed Handicapper 5.0 (Charles Carroll). Selecting the best pace line to use turned things around for me from hitting 30% wins (win horse) to about 75%. So far I have done only about 40 recent races at many tracks since the Moss Pace figures have recently been available but to me this looks impressive. I wonder if it will be consistent or will drop to 30% again. I strongly believe though that the selection of the most appropriate PP to represent the horse is crucial. It appears to me that selecting the PP by the best pace line is the way to go so far. Using Speed Handicapper 5.0 that gives the Carroll speed figures seems to work really well on the selected PP by Moss Pace to pick the win horse. However the trifecta is not necessarily in the top 5. Selector 1.60 picks less winners but its trifecta is in the top 5 most of the time with the Moss paceline selection. Anyway just food for thought...please post your impressions on how we can improve on this. Perhaps I should start a new thread on this. Thanks for your help.

Hi Racer100

I use an old Sartin hand entry program called EXDC
Most of the older programs,as far as I can tell
had this same feature to calculate the APV and Class ratings

I use this program
Let me show you how I used it for a horse using Spec160 and EXDC
This horse won on Saturday. I listed it as
APV. 101.0
CR. 0.70

My attachment will map out were I look for the information
I hand enter into EXDC

I use these numbers a guide to the ability of a horse
against the others in the race not as a wagering factor
what I mean is
Superstone has an APV of 101.0% to me this means in its
most current races Its been running at this level - 100% is equal

But Its Class Rating is only 0.70
This tells me that its not doing that well in those races.
This raised a red flag for me as ,for me usually my winners
rate over .90 in CR
I probably don't want to give this horse too
much help. I used its last line with its highest
ever speed rating of 84 But if it were line 3 I would use
its last line unless it had an excuse

Here is my mapped out attachment
any questions are welcome I will try to explian my method

[admin]

I can't give out programs
I have put back one of our forums called Energy

lots of real nice guys used to post in there
I bet somebody can help you out

Bill

P.S

shoeless. Its so cold out there. everytime I get out of the truck
and my hands touch that frozen handtruck
and cold boxes I just think about Del Mar
Now I really miss it ...