Friday Night Race of the Week Hoosier Park

[Houndog]

Friday Night Race of the week. Hoosier Park Race #7. Sorry, I am late with this. The entries.

[Houndog]

Track Profile from last year at a mile distance, from roughly the same time frame. No maidens and only fast tracks are included. I am only showing 15 races, but their are 30 races in the sample. The averages reflect all 30 races.

[Forego]

hi guys. glad to see things came back ok

i will take a win bet on the 7 horse. plus exactas with the 6 and 4 on top and under the 7

[Houndog]

Energy Generator after tossing some horses.

[Houndog]

Energy Automatic Adjustment.

[Houndog]

Energy Match-Up and UXR.

[Houndog]

Muv and Line Scores.

[Houndog]

EXDC Match-Up.

[Houndog]

Based on the screens I will use #4 Money Never Sleeps and # 7 Curls as my primary win contenders. With the low and even UXR I like #9 Conte N Me as my counter-energy horse, thus I would include him in exotic plays.

One concern for me is that #4 Money Never Sleeps is dropping to a new low. They may be dropping for a win, but if she goes down as a heavy favorite I would be careful. If that is the case I will be looking closer at #6 Allegra's Affair. I just don't like putting money on heavy favorites in races such as these.

Good Luck to All! Nice having the board back.

[Houndog]

Going by a visual ESP which can be just as important as the Energy Generated ESP designation #4 Money Never Sleeps appears to be the lone early in this race. No great insights here as she will probably be the post time favorite as everyone can see what I see, lone early, class dropper, best speed ratings etc. The horse was over it's head in the last race, CLM30000 and got beaten badly. The horse has been competitive for C15000 and now drops to CLM5000. Is this a negative drop?

All opinions on this horse are most welcome, as it always helps if you can beat the favorite.

[richrosa]

Glad everything is back and working.

The Money Never Sleeps (#4) is an easy case. If she runs, you get paid. With the sub 2-1 odds that I would project, and the layoffs, track switch, the form last race, I cannot command such a wager.

I like both ends of the entry, specifically the #1 Striped who I project to be just outside of the early pace running with the 2,4,8. She was competitive against similar at GLD, and may be an overlooked shipper. Her projected speed, and Sartin composites are the strongest in the field.

100% win #1
Exacta 1/69 (two latest competitive runners)

[Houndog]

Glad everything is back and working.

The Money Never Sleeps (#4) is an easy case. If she runs, you get paid. With the sub 2-1 odds that I would project, and the layoffs, track switch, the form last race, I cannot command such a wager.

I like both ends of the entry, specifically the #1 Striped who I project to be just outside of the early pace running with the 2,4,8. She was competitive against similar at GLD, and may be an overlooked shipper. Her projected speed, and Sartin composites are the strongest in the field.

100% win #1
Exacta 1/69 (two latest competitive runners)

Just a question about #1 Striped. Are you basing your opinion on the projection you are getting from HDW? If that is the case GLD must be very slow surface wise. No way I can get this horse in Energy as it would involve a projection and probabably the alternate adjustment as well which I may try just to find out if I can make a case for Striped.

[richrosa]

5127

Yes, the projected speed comes from HDW and is located in the lower table under the heading "pSpd".

[richrosa]

Images might not be working yet. here's a link to the image.

big link (http://www.handicappingos.com/node/45?size=_original) & small link (http://www.handicappingos.com/node/45?)

[gl45]

#4 will be the pace horse 24.1 47.4 114 141.3 line3 (Does have a For Sale sign?)
which horse can run better than the #4?
#7 will win
Pino

[admin]

Parts I have to pass this week
I wish everyone the best for this weeks race.
I'm beat Its been a very long week fighting to get the board up
I have been going none stop I have slept like 3 hours in the last two nights
Let me crash-Bad pun- I need to rest and get ready to head out to OKla
to visit Mr Bradshaw
GS
everyone
Bill

[racetrackjohnny]

win bets 5,7. 9 for exacta horse.

[Houndog]

After looking at charts and times for GLD I will project #1 Striped to mile distance off of his second line back and also do the manual adjustment which equalizes Total Energy. Striped indeed gets the biggest boost as she gets a +2.72 adjustment. Let's see what the screens look like now.

[Houndog]

Energy Screen 2

[Houndog]

Energy Screen 3

[gl45]

here is a zip file with the PP's for Hoosier #7

[Houndog]

Final Screen

[gl45]

oops i'm not able to attach the PP's
sorry Richie

[Houndog]

Based on these screens I would use #1 Striped and #7 Curls as win bets. I would still use #9 Conte N Me as my Counter-Energy horse to be used with exotic bets. Rich Rosa's post made me redo the race, and I thought that GLD to be a slower surface than Hoosier Park. It would be interesting for someone to do this race in Speculator with the TM adjustment to see how Striped fairs.

Although #4 Money Never Sleeps looks VERY good I don't like the last race and the big drop. This horse probably will the favorite perhaps even odds-on and I don't want to go there. Usually I do not like projecting or using the manual adjustment as this is a major adjustment. In this case I believe it is warranted so I will use it in this race. Will see what happens.

[RichieP]

Here are the pp's for tonight's race in case anyone using the matchup wants to see the race ok?

Race conditions and the 1 horse

[RichieP]

the 1a and the 2

[RichieP]

the 3 and 4

[RichieP]

the 5 and 6

[shoeless]

Bill,Have a safe trip and be careful.Jeff

[RichieP]

the 7 and 8

[RichieP]

finally the 9 horse

[shoeless]

Bill,Have a safe trip and be careful

[shoeless]

Houndog,If you find that the energizer horse cannot wire the field will you change the vareigate?Jeff

[Houndog]

Houndog,If you find that the energizer horse cannot wire the field will you change the vareigate?Jeff

Jeff, I mentally make the adjustment if I believe the variegate to be off. Jeff with this race I have done alot of what-if's which I normally don't like to do. I could see what happens and I will post it here.

[Houndog]

Jeff, I left out Striped as I just wanted to Change the variegate with the automatic adjustment. First screen without changing variegate.

[Houndog]

Without changing variegate.

[Houndog]

Normally I would change the variegate for the 0.00 MUV horse, but since you wanted me to apply this to the Energizer I will apply it to Curls. An interesting outcome and not what I expected.

[Houndog]

Final screen with change variegate for the Energizer (Curls).

[Houndog]

Parts I have to pass this week
I wish everyone the best for this weeks race.
I'm beat Its been a very long week fighting to get the board up
I have been going none stop I have slept like 3 hours in the last two nights
Let me crash-Bad pun- I need to rest and get ready to head out to OKla
to visit Mr Bradshaw
GS
everyone
Bill

Bill, all of us really appreciate the effort you put in getting the board back up. I work in IT and know that when systems go down it makes for a very long day or in your case days. Have been to Oklahoma before attending a Sartin Seminar and really liked it there. Have a great trip!

[partsnut]

I'll go with the # 4 to win.

[cprescigno]

A little late but we still have a little time.

I go with the 7 to win this one.

If I had to pick an Exacta it would be 7-5

Charlie

[Houndog]

Congratulations to racetrackjohnny on picking a good winner.

[cprescigno]

Congratulations Racetrack Johnny. You had the five for a win bet.
I'm not sure that any of the programs saw this horse. What were you using to pick it?

Charlie

[RichieP]

We have a winner!

Congrats to Eric Penicka ( Racetrackjohhny) for the nice double digit winner man! He will be counting the cash in a big way. :)


Kudos to Charlie too who had the winner named second in a cold exacta with the 7 on top. Good work C. If the 7 runs u hit a home run


Rich

[racetrackjohnny]

Thanks Charlie.
This horse did not qualify top 5 if I used normal best of last 3 or 4 pl's. All of my top 5 had ?'s so looking at this race deeper I saw the 5 was a horse for the course. She had run very well here in the prior form cycle in all 5 races at Hoosier. She was getting the same jockey back. The clincher was the 5f bullet breeze in 1:00 on 9-1. When I plugged those races in from hoo into my program this one came up on top. That 5f bullet was the clincher telling me this one was ok to run tonight. If not for that workout I never would have went back on the pl's to those "05" lines.

[shoeless]

Houndog,Your right I meant the 0.00 MUV horse instead of the energizer in order to change the variegate.Jeff

[Houndog]

Thanks Charlie.
This horse did not qualify top 5 if I used normal best of last 3 or 4 pl's. All of my top 5 had ?'s so looking at this race deeper I saw the 5 was a horse for the course. She had run very well here in the prior form cycle in all 5 races at Hoosier. She was getting the same jockey back. The clincher was the 5f bullet breeze in 1:00 on 9-1. When I plugged those races in from hoo into my program this one came up on top. That 5f bullet was the clincher telling me this one was ok to run tonight. If not for that workout I never would have went back on the pl's to those "05" lines.

Eric, I like your reasoning on going back on this horse. I agree all the top qualifiers had many question marks. The 5f workout as you say is important. Thanks for reminding me that I need to look at these factors also for a reason to go deeper in paceline selections.

[shoeless]

Eric,Great call on that one and your right about horses for courses,I will also use that for distance of the race as well.Sometimes it backfires but in the long run it works out where certain horses dont like specific distances.I will play a lot of turf races and notice that some horses perfer certain turf courses over others.I know this sounds crazy but it does happen.Jeff

[racetrackjohnny]

Houndog and Shoeless,
Thanks guys. Yes, Jeff, horse for course and horse for distance on turf or dirt are often excellent handicapping angles and great separators when you have to narrow down the contention.

[admin]

Hello Eric
nice job with the F.N.R.O.W
Yesterday at Delaware race 6 9/16 I saw a horse who I was sure would win get passed like my horse was standing still in the stretch by another
Bullet 5 furlong WO horse
thanks for the lesson

GS
Bill

[admin]

Bill,Have a safe trip and be careful.Jeff

Thanks Jeff

I will be fine I have a great gift from
Richard Poirier form KC
The 3 Video set from Doc Sartin on DVD
I will be able to pop them in the new Element and
Doc will keep me company
hope to pick up some signals along the way so I can check in to
Pace and Cap

Thanks Bill