tompkins
09-28-2006, 12:02 PM
For a long time the methodology went the opposite way of Brohamer's
positional definition of ESP types, but between energy distribution
and position, I have to say I am now in the ball park of believing it
to be 65-35 energy distribution over position. With the early/late
balance telling us relative POSITION, one has to add that in a race.
The pace "make up" of various contests must make the handicapper always
aware as to when POSTIONAL ESP might be advantageous to energy
distribution ESP.
One area we differ a lot from the tennants of Modern Pace Handicapping
is in the area of an early horse. I think energy distribution has it
all over position in that regard but one must be careful to
differentiate position by DEFAULT vs. ADAPTIVE position.
Let's try the less common one first: ADAPTIVE. These are the horses
like Affirmed or Forty Niner that, regardless of the pace, have enough
adaptablity to be up front or close to it, NO MATTER THE PACE. These
very capable ones can toy with the rest of them either gunning away
when no one can challenge them, or folding up (like Affirmed did to
Bid in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on a 25 opening quarter) so as to have
lots in reserve later. Down the class ladder there are those who can
do this to varying degrees depending upon the pace of the race. There
is one now at Fort Erie that just won it's 8th in a row (Cold War)
doing just that. The bottom line is that these guys run front
POSTIONALLY no matter the pace or within the bounds of MOST of the
paces thrown at them.
On the other side of the fence are those who get the race handed to
them and get the front by default. Without challenge they relax and
are the best bet in racing: uncontested early speed. These guys, once
left alone, usually shift their normally earlier ESP to one with a
later e/l than usual so it is always best to check the opening
fractions of a past performance race that looks too easy because it
probably was. It is well to understand that the MAJORITY of these Will
be weakened by LEGITIMATE company on the lead. A horse that will only
stay close up to or near the 2nd call may not effect it.
My favorites are the ones POSITIONALLY hidden and these are also by default as
the pace HID them from a positionally recognizable pattern like an early
sprinter who was way overmatched in it's last with calls like 4(2) 4(3) 5(4)6(8)
who ran an energy ESP of early and projects the lead today.
Conversely an S/P with running lines 5(7) 5(7) 7(7) 7(5) and gets a
good closing spot. These are the ones that position will never find
but the e/l relativity will easily locate. An extreme case of an positional
runner in the other direction would be a Silky Sullivan, Concern, Cefis, Lit de
Justice and the like, that almost whatever the pace ahead of them HAD to be at
the back of the pack where it is much harder to adapt to what is up front.
Another reason why these didn't win their fair share.
Remember to consider how much positional habits may play in a horse's
past performance as much as the energy distribution. Sometimes they
are a greater factor than we realize.
positional definition of ESP types, but between energy distribution
and position, I have to say I am now in the ball park of believing it
to be 65-35 energy distribution over position. With the early/late
balance telling us relative POSITION, one has to add that in a race.
The pace "make up" of various contests must make the handicapper always
aware as to when POSTIONAL ESP might be advantageous to energy
distribution ESP.
One area we differ a lot from the tennants of Modern Pace Handicapping
is in the area of an early horse. I think energy distribution has it
all over position in that regard but one must be careful to
differentiate position by DEFAULT vs. ADAPTIVE position.
Let's try the less common one first: ADAPTIVE. These are the horses
like Affirmed or Forty Niner that, regardless of the pace, have enough
adaptablity to be up front or close to it, NO MATTER THE PACE. These
very capable ones can toy with the rest of them either gunning away
when no one can challenge them, or folding up (like Affirmed did to
Bid in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on a 25 opening quarter) so as to have
lots in reserve later. Down the class ladder there are those who can
do this to varying degrees depending upon the pace of the race. There
is one now at Fort Erie that just won it's 8th in a row (Cold War)
doing just that. The bottom line is that these guys run front
POSTIONALLY no matter the pace or within the bounds of MOST of the
paces thrown at them.
On the other side of the fence are those who get the race handed to
them and get the front by default. Without challenge they relax and
are the best bet in racing: uncontested early speed. These guys, once
left alone, usually shift their normally earlier ESP to one with a
later e/l than usual so it is always best to check the opening
fractions of a past performance race that looks too easy because it
probably was. It is well to understand that the MAJORITY of these Will
be weakened by LEGITIMATE company on the lead. A horse that will only
stay close up to or near the 2nd call may not effect it.
My favorites are the ones POSITIONALLY hidden and these are also by default as
the pace HID them from a positionally recognizable pattern like an early
sprinter who was way overmatched in it's last with calls like 4(2) 4(3) 5(4)6(8)
who ran an energy ESP of early and projects the lead today.
Conversely an S/P with running lines 5(7) 5(7) 7(7) 7(5) and gets a
good closing spot. These are the ones that position will never find
but the e/l relativity will easily locate. An extreme case of an positional
runner in the other direction would be a Silky Sullivan, Concern, Cefis, Lit de
Justice and the like, that almost whatever the pace ahead of them HAD to be at
the back of the pack where it is much harder to adapt to what is up front.
Another reason why these didn't win their fair share.
Remember to consider how much positional habits may play in a horse's
past performance as much as the energy distribution. Sometimes they
are a greater factor than we realize.