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RichieP
10-02-2006, 11:34 AM
Bill Varone
Charlie Rescigno
Giuseppe Ledda (Pino)
Richie Pizzicara

The "Italian Mafia" is really working hard on the matchup. Jim's 5 step approach is the foundation we are all using.

I have asked the " Mob" if they would come and post individually:

1) something that is HELPING them matchup wise
2) something that is HURTING them matchup wise

I ran this by Jim and he thinks it's cool.

For ME:

Positives:
1) Really focusing on the FIRST call helps me a lot. From here everything else flows: Projected pace - Running styles - Positioning - Eliminating slow horses in bunches

2) Tandems help: when they are fast I can often throw the whole rest of the field out. When they are very slow those guys get tossed quickly.

Negatives:
1) I have to pay more attention to the running style of the horse when it WINS or runs extremely well. I am losing races betting horses based on running styles that are DIFFERENT from their WINNING style. Big difference between a style that wins and a style that runs third by 6 lenghts for example.

2) I am losing races because I still go against my first instinct about a race and horse. HAVE to get better here if I am gonna get my win % up. HAVE TO. Jim calls these losses " screw ups" cause there is no damn way I shoulda lost them. But I did.

I am really looking forward to getting my hands on the new book too! Should be a blast.

Richie

admin
10-02-2006, 02:01 PM
Hello fellow Match Up students

Fro me the biggest hurdle is the tandem step
Most of the tandems I can deal with I'm finding that
many times I see a race were in a 8 horse files there is a race were two of the horse in the race finished close like 2nd and 3rd of something similar These races many times make the match up easy many times these two horses are the win bets for the race

My problem is like what happen in race two from the Meadowlands Friday night
opening night 9/29
the 1 horse 4 horse 8 horse and 9 horse all came from the same race last time
also the 2 horse ran against these guys a few races back
This type of race is very troubling for me
epically since the order of finish in the tandem race was

the 8 horse won the 1 horse placed the 4 horse ran third
the 9 with Joe bravo riding this horse this time ran the
speed ratings were
74
73
71
68
The trouble was no one of the none tandem horses
looked better I knew it was the 1 4 or 8
since I could not break the Match Up I bet the 8
to Win/Place kind of figuring Joe bravo was the favorite on the 9
he probably would win if not my eight
The 4 won I lost

A big positive is the ability to narrow a race down to the best Early the best
E/P the best Presser and the best Sustained horse
based on picking lines from the projected pace of the race then entering them into Energy
only entering four horses is a breeze and Energy is a great program

Thanks Bill

gl45
10-02-2006, 06:45 PM
Positive

I'm able to read PP's with a clear understanding of what I'm looking for.
I can define contenders and select paceline with more confidence.
Devoid of mainstrean race analysis. Just Times and Positions.

Negative
Beaten Lentghs in a paceline. That does mess me up. Contender or Not?
Interpretation of Units of Energy by positions and BLs.
Not able to pass a race when there are too many contenders. Obstinately I have to find the winner, and I lose all the time.

I have some more but I'm running out of time. Mountneer is call me, good card tonight.

Pino

cprescigno
10-03-2006, 12:10 AM
I don't mind saying that the message header I interpreted it as Cavatelli Parmagiana and figured with some Broccoli Rape and Sausage I could make myself hungry. Let me not forget a loaf of Italian Bread........

I've been working on the Match Up for about five months now. I don't always get as much time as I would like working the races but I am progressing definitely. When I started I used to write every paceline down. When I got better at it I just wrote my contenders down. Now I'm at the point where I don't have to write anything down and work from my projected paceline matching the contenders in my head. The tandems help tremendously in limiting the contenders.
At this point the only time I write anything down is when a race is loaded early. I have trouble juggling five or six horses with close first and second calls in my head. I'll probably get better at it but not there yet.
When I started I was only able to do three or sometimes four races before getting tired and having to stop. Even that took well over half an hour per race. Now I can do an entire card and I am a lot quicker at it without getting fatigued.
I usually hit about 50% of the races I play. I play a one win bet always looking for doubles and pick 3's. I went 3 for 4 tonight at MNR with one exacta. Real strong lead horse so I was just looking for place.

I haven't used a computer program in five months. It's all working from the PP's manually matching the horses. It's like an exercise for the mind, the more you do it, the better and faster you get at it. I work off the computer screen using the Post Time Dialy files. I find that I can see those better than the printed PP's.

Shortcomings
I still am not getting the focus and concentration level that I think will come as I keep working the Match Up.
I still have some trouble with races loaded early.
I definitely have trouble when there isn't a clear pace horse.
I am not nearly as accurate as I want to be. Would like to get to 3/5 or even 4/5 on a regular basis.
I still get rocked when I completely miss. Last Friday I missed all three races in a pick 3 bet. It definitely rocked me. Had no confidence at all the next day.
I have very little experience with the different tracks. I sometimes don't know when a paceline from a shipper is valid or not for the track I am working.

The biggest positive of the Match Up for me is having the ability to evaluate and successfully pick a winner manually using proper evaluation of the pacelines. It's much more satisfying than pumping the numbers into a computer program. Much more satisfying!

My biggest problem with the slew of programs out there is that they apply a fixed set of rules to come to valid contenders. You still have to evaluate those contenders to pick a winner. That being the case I prefer evaluating the pacelines and working the race manually allowing my intuition and experience to select my contenders. After going through this process it's usually clear which horse is going to win.

Charlie

gl45
10-03-2006, 09:24 AM
I agree with Charlie, the more you work on the Matchup, the more you develop an intuition about the race. Call it Vodoo or whathever, it works.
With Richie guidance, I'm now able to pass races that don't make any sense, races where there are at least 5 contenders, or races where I can't define the pace, or horses racing style.
Last night at Mount was a good night. Me and Richie had great time.
Thanks Richie
Pino

Turbulator
10-14-2006, 11:58 PM
Hello fellow Match Up students

Fro me the biggest hurdle is the tandem step

Most of the tandems I can deal with I'm finding that
many times I see a race were in a 8 horse files there is a race were two of the horse in the race finished close like 2nd and 3rd of something similar These races many times make the match up easy many times these two horses are the win bets for the race

My problem is like what happen in race two from the Meadowlands Friday night
opening night 9/29
the 1 horse 4 horse 8 horse and 9 horse all came from the same race last time
also the 2 horse ran against these guys a few races back
This type of race is very troubling for me
epically since the order of finish in the tandem race was

the 8 horse won the 1 horse placed the 4 horse ran third
the 9 with Joe bravo riding this horse this time ran the
speed ratings were
74
73
71
68

First of all, if I might interject here: what does the jockey and the speed ratings have to do with the matchup? Just a question, not a criticism.

The trouble was no one of the none tandem horses
looked better I knew it was the 1 4 or 8
since I could not break the Match Up I bet the 8
to Win/Place kind of figuring Joe bravo was the favorite on the 9
he probably would win if not my eight
The 4 won I lost



Again with the jockey. ;--)


From Pace Makes the Race
Advanced Concepts
Howard Sartin

The amazing effectiveness of the tandem procedure comes from two sources. First, our research reveals that winners repeat a win their next race (within 30 days) an overall average of 18% of the time. The figure ranges from 15% in lower class horses at secondary tracks, to 27% for handicap and stakes horses, or those posting wins by four or more lengths…at tracks like Santa Anita, Del Mar, etc., winners repeat on an average of 24% of the time.

We also found that horses who come in second last race, win next out 10% more often than winners. In fact, over 50% of all races are won by horses who finished in the money, last effort. About 60% are won by horses finishing no worse than fourth in their last race.

[Now here is the interesting part]

But in a tandem race, these figures are skewed. Winners repeat a maximum of only twelve percent of the time. Horses that placed in a tandem win 30% more than normal: horses that showed, came in fourth or within 3.75 lengths, win 40% of the time. (All of these statements are contingent on having two or more of today’s qualifiers from the tandem race, and the best tandem horse scoring in the top three (and ties) TPRs (total pace ratings) in today’s race.)

Steve

RichieP
10-21-2006, 08:00 PM
Positive:

1) HIDING the ml odds when working a race.

The difference between working a race matching just HORSES rather than matching then seeing an EXPECTATION of payoffs is unreal. I dont know how the hell Jim saw this in my play but he did.

ANYONE seriously matching Jim's way who comes from a "value oriented" backround like me HAS to make every attempt to lose the EXPECTATION of payoff when working and matching a race. The difference is startling.

SERIOUSLY

nuff said

Rich

admin
10-22-2006, 06:16 AM
Bill Varone
Charlie Rescigno
Giuseppe Ledda (Pino)
Richie Pizzicara

The "Italian Mafia" is really working hard on the matchup. Jim's 5 step approach is the foundation we are all using.

I have asked the " Mob" if they would come and post individually:

1) something that is HELPING them matchup wise
2) something that is HURTING them matchup wise

I ran this by Jim and he thinks it's cool.



Hi Steve
Thank you for your help

I posted my true feelings. from a race that I bet and lost

you are correct about jockeys trainers and speed ratings
having nothing to do with the Match Up

My feelings about Joe Bravo and his horse being the favorite
and the speed ratings of his horse compared to the three horses
in the 1 - 4 - 8 tandem
had more to do with my betting decision
I felt at the time of the original post that rather than bet two
horses I would bet only one of these three Win and Place
to take my shot against the Fav with no readout support

Ok so here was my thinking
taking into account that this was one of the very first races
I ever did with out software ,with out Mr Bradshaw or Rich
around and Live at the track with its built in distractions
I found myself very troubled by the tandem
I posted my true feelings That with out software I questioned my
self why I left the favorite out and went to the 8 win/place
instead .

The post was made about 1 month ago
I feel that with Mr Bradshaw and Rich's help
I have improved my tandem race skills
I still am freaked out by tandems but I want to win and feel that
honest posting about actual races were I bet my money
helps me the most
Thank you again for your help
I truely appreciate it.

RichieP
11-04-2006, 08:11 AM
about 2 weeks ago I started getting some " feedback" from that little voice in my head before a few races.

I would be all ready to "mark" a horse ( "Marking" is my trigger to BET a horse if 3/2 or higher AND to realize this is no doubt the horse and NO returning to the race to review if a loss occurs) and this doubt would come into my mind
questioning if this really was the horse. It would come out of nowhere BUT it was clear and loud in my mind.

Over the first 5 days this happened 4 or 5 times. I bet the horse each time. Every time the horse lost.

I mentioned this to Jim and told him from that day forward I would not bet the horse when this happened. He suggested I track the results of this. He said it was part of my intuition coming out after 6 months of HARD focused work on the Matchup.

Since that day 8 horses have given me this negative mental feedback. I stopped betting on them. NONE have won.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horses making BIG moves POSITIONALLY going from 1c-2c or 2c-sc need serious focused attention. Gaining positions is gaining UNITS OF ENERGY according to Jim. This being true these FAST MOVERS early in the race can be given units of Energy to work with against the other contenders. They make their move a bit premature in the paceline usually.

After giving them the proper units in today's matchup( and that line makes him a FAST horse in today's matchup) look to see if they might be a bit closer to the leader in OTHER races showing on the pp's. You don't have to worry bout pace of race in those other lines. Focus on POSITION.

If they do you might have uncovered a BOMB waiting to blow up the other competitors in todays race. The 2 biggest priced horses I have seen "Matching" (over $ 60.00) have this in common. The public can NOT see this.

I am using a 1/1 ratio ( 1 unit available for every 1 position gained) and it is working pretty darn good. Spectacular results in a couple of races.

Definitely something to watch for and consider when matching in my opinion.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

I just want to thank Jim here.

He has taught and is still teaching me things regarding both horse racing AND life that will serve me for the rest of my days. He is a mentor and a friend who gives of his time and energy when there are other things in his life he could be doing.

I can never express in words how cool this past 6 months have been. Truly a humbling experience.

Thanx "Hat" :)

Richie



.

admin
11-04-2006, 08:42 AM
Gli amici che aiutano gli amici vincono l'amico di A che li aiuta con più di voi potrebbero immaginare mai e quell'amico è un amico allineare per vita priceless..

Bill

Bill Lyster
11-04-2006, 07:46 PM
Richie:

When you speak of this positional gain are you referring to a pattern of consistent gain like 8-6-4-2, 7-5-3-2 or can the can pattern be more like 8-8-5-3, or 8-8-8-4 or are both of these types okay? Are there less desirable patterns of gain like perhaps 8-8-5-5 or like when a horse gives up a position like 9-6-7-3? Is going backward after a gain the kiss of death or do you just not give this kind of horse any energy points?


Patterns from Breeders Cup races today
Juvenile winner:7-6-4-1-1
Juvenile place: 5-5-7-4-2 (note regression from 5-7)

Sprint winner: 2-2-2-2 (another point to be asked later)
Sprint place: (2nd L -not the one I used) 8-8-3-3

Distaff winner: 3-3-2-2-2 (2nd line)
distaff place:(before DQ) 6-6-5-1-1

Classic Winner: (L3) 2-2-2-2-1
Classic Place: (L4) 3-4-4-1-1

When a horse is naturally near the lead the opportunity for position gain is limited, so what kind of guidelines keep these horses in the mix or allow them to gain energy points?

In the case of a dominant wire to wire type an increase in winning margin from stretch to finish might be considered a near parallel (yes?)

Thanks for your help

Bill Lyster
11-04-2006, 08:11 PM
I worked a couple of races and have these questions:

1. Where do you apply the gained lengths, at the end of the call where they were gained or simply to the final time?

2. If a horse backs up do you deduct a point or is a backup such a bad thing that you might penalize the horse more for the backup? If he reverses course and gains after the loss does he get credit for the re-gain? In the event that the horse is still competitive after a positional loss, how do the losses and gains apply to the times for purposes of Matchup analysis?

Thanks,

Bill

RichieP
11-05-2006, 04:31 PM
Richie:

When you speak of this positional gain are you referring to a pattern of consistent gain like 8-6-4-2, 7-5-3-2 or can the can pattern be more like 8-8-5-3, or 8-8-8-4 or are both of these types okay? Are there less desirable patterns of gain like perhaps 8-8-5-5 or like when a horse gives up a position like 9-6-7-3? Is going backward after a gain the kiss of death or do you just not give this kind of horse any energy points?


Patterns from Breeders Cup races today
Juvenile winner:7-6-4-1-1
Juvenile place: 5-5-7-4-2 (note regression from 5-7)

Sprint winner: 2-2-2-2 (another point to be asked later)
Sprint place: (2nd L -not the one I used) 8-8-3-3

Distaff winner: 3-3-2-2-2 (2nd line)
distaff place:(before DQ) 6-6-5-1-1

Classic Winner: (L3) 2-2-2-2-1
Classic Place: (L4) 3-4-4-1-1

When a horse is naturally near the lead the opportunity for position gain is limited, so what kind of guidelines keep these horses in the mix or allow them to gain energy points?

In the case of a dominant wire to wire type an increase in winning margin from stretch to finish might be considered a near parallel (yes?)

Thanks for your help

Bill
The #1 horse ( last line) in the Juvenile who's line you posted is the ONLY Winner's line shown that has move I described.

That line was ( 1c-2c-sc) - 6-4-1. Then he lost at the finish finishing 3rd.

Based on the proj pace and a race shape which should go " Other than early"
the horse now becomes a horse to seriously study the pp's on.

Key is considering these movers in races where " other than early" is the preferred style ok?

For clarity:
1) Early - is a race where a horse is projected to go WIRE TO WIRE.
2) Other than Early- ALL other races

Rich

Bill Lyster
11-08-2006, 09:48 PM
Hey Richie: I'm old enough to remember Froggie or was it Buster Brown or both, now I am confused.

About the Juvenile - a real classic match up of west, mid west and east. I worked the race by hand and then tossed into speculator.

My contenders were the tandem of Stormello and Prinicipal Secret from their last at SA, the tandem of Street Sense, Great Hunter and Circular Quay from last race @ Keeneland and Scat Daddy from last at Bel.

so first the tracks: SA 8.5 f 3 yr best is 140.0, 8f = 133.4; Belmont's 8f = 132.1; and no one really knows what Keeneland's 8.5f is worth, but we think its a little slow.

If Scat Daddy had raced at 8.5f we wouldn't have this conversation, but he raced on the Bel 8f which is 8 ticks faster most due to the one turn. Scat Daddy presses and has some heart, but will he be close enuf to be a factor? I projected his 8.5f time to be 143 (without any adjust for the 1 turn mile). That made him look good final time wise with the CA invaders, but not terribly close to the pace. We know now that he should have been tossed.

For Matchup purposes my pace of race fractions were the fractions from CA race. In the future when east/west and middle get together I will temper my judgments of using the usually faster western times, but in this case I tossed the contenders into speculator and came up with Scat, Storm, Great, but even Spec showed Scat a long way off at 2nd call. Hiding Scat gets Great-Street-CQ as top 3 BL. So that part is history.

Back to Matchup using raw times with Scat out. You could make the argument that the SA horses won't run that fast and that the Keeneland horses won't run quite that slow, which kind of makes everything about equal.

So noting that Street closes 6-4-1, do you give him 2+3 units of energy extra or something else, and then where do you apply the units - to the fraction at the end of the gain - first 2 at 6f and a total of 5 at final time or just to the final time before you start considering the rest of the Matchup equation?

I realize that this might be the kind of race that you would pass because of lack of information or at least not enuf info to make a strong decision. But, assuming that the info we have is enuf info, I'm interested in the mechanics of the application of energy units.

If you give him +5 he gets pretty respectable in any light.

By the way I used this positional gain tip to handicap a couple of Hastings races from Sunday that were "Other than early". Besides reversing another tandem, the "energy boost by one horse with an 8-7-4 close made him a standout. Thanks for the tip. Now that I put that in writing it reminds me of one more question.

Your response was that street sense's pattern was the only I highlighted that met the gain criteria, where the gain was 6-4-1. Do you require a minimum gain from one segment to the other, like more than 1. Can you expand on that aspect if its relevant?

Thanks for your help. Race analysis has become something I look forward to more than ever and with these tools and your and The Hat's input I am really enjoying handicapping.


Bill

Bill Lyster
11-13-2006, 10:22 AM
Richie:

Just curious. In the process where you described negative feelings about horses that had otherwise made it through your Matchup evaluation and then decided not to bet them, did you pass the race altogether or go back and re-evaluate the field and make a bet elsewhere?

RichieP
11-13-2006, 11:34 AM
Richie:

Just curious. In the process where you described negative feelings about horses that had otherwise made it through your Matchup evaluation and then decided not to bet them, did you pass the race altogether or go back and re-evaluate the field and make a bet elsewhere?

Hi Bill

I just spoke with Jim about this 2 days ago.

Until 4 days ago I was simply passing the race.

Now I am taking the leap to tossing the horse and seeing if a bet now comes elsewhere.

Rich

admin
11-21-2006, 05:25 AM
Hang in there The methodology is the work area
there are many tools in the shop
If you go see a concert and admire the expert piano
player You to maybe able to play well someday
It takes time and practice In this concert
really the only thing you need to do is "Play"
as best as you can and work to win just one more race
than yesterday
soon you will find your tool. or your key

Your friend
Bill