Picking Horses vs Picking Pacelines

[VoodooFan]

Mr. Bradshaw , I heard you say that before. Can you expound on this a little more? This seem to be very important point you stressed before. How strong of a point is this in relation to the MatchUp? I hope in the future you or Richie can show a race with ONLY this example of Picking Horses vs Picking Pacelines. Also, how does Picking Horses dovetail into finding the horse who has run the best in his last race, at todays distance and todays track? Thanks

[THE HAT]

Here goes Voodoo.

When checking running styles I find a lone Early, but there isn’t any line showing where the horse won the race, but his first two calls indicate that he is a very fast horse and will get the lead in today’s race. This is the horse I pick to win the race.

If I believe the race will go other than Early I may pick another horse with a different running style and try to find a running line for this horse. So in reality I’m picking horse’s running styles and then find running lines that will make the horse the winner.

In most instances I do not know the horse's name, or the track where he last ran. The horse that is going to take the lead is the first thing I look for in today’s race and nothing else matters. I do not apply any
traditional handicapping methods..

The Hat

[RichieP]

Voodoo Fan,

I am gonna post a race Jim asked me to work from Belmont on Sunday. I did NOT bet the race because I was wagering Keeneland and sucking wind there man.

This is exactly how I did the race with Jim before knowing the result. Before I start Jim has me matching turf races using turf lines. PERIOD. ALL other lines do NOT exist.

The pp's I use gives me a filter where I can show only turf races and block out the dirt lines. I use this feature ALL the time so that is what I am going to post ok? I will show both route and sprint turfs even though I can filter the routes out too if I wished.

I am gonna post the pp's and NOT the result chart. Identify running styles of the horses shown in turf sprints Voodoo.Use the FIRST call please.

We can do this as kind of an interactive learning race ok? ANYONE wanting to post up RUNNING STYLES based on FIRST call turf sprints feel free to do so.

These are the pp's EXACTLY how I work the races including HIDING the ml odds. Let's just match HORSES.

RUNNING STYLES first. Then we will go on.

dont look at the results if you are serious about learning. you wont believe this **** man. Serious.

I will wait a day to let anyone post that is interested then we go to next step. But first things first

1) Identify each horses RUNNING STYLE based on POSITION at FIRST CALL please. Remember today's race is at the SPRINT distance.

here are the race conditions and the 1 horse. Filtered to ONLY show TURF races.

[RichieP]

the 2 and 3

[RichieP]

the 4,5 and 6

[RichieP]

# 8 was scratched. the 7,9 and 10

[RichieP]

finally the # 12.

[dugoutgold]

Hey Rich, ok Ill try here here goes:

Wave the Baton-definate S type at this dist.
Behind the screen-SP
Robs. FTS (first time starter)
Mohesan Sky-Id say SP
Megatrend-S
Storm Lighting E (LONE E HERE!)
FastIzaTurtle-S but id say more like a LAT here
Ima Yankee-only one start but an S against a fast pace

[gl45]

#1 Wave----> Presser
#2 Behind---> Early
#3 F. Cat---> Presser
#5 M. Sky--> Presser
#6 Mega----> Presser
#7 Storm---> Early
#9 Fast-----> Sustain
#12 Yankee--> Presser

2 Early
5 Presser
1 Sustain

Pino

[emilio840]

Wave the Baton S
Behind the Screen S
Fiddlers SP
Mohegan Sky SP
Megatrend S
Storm N Ligtning E (Lone Early Horse)
Fast Iz A Turtle S
I'm a Yankee SP

[admin]

Hello Jim and Rich

1. Pres.
2. S/P
3. Pres
4. --
5. E/P
6. Pre
7. Ear
8.---
9. SUS
10----
11.---
12.S/P

[RichieP]

ok the # 7 is a Lone Early for sure. So now we are looking for "Early" to win here IF we can find a line for him.This is what Jim is talking about on his post.

We Can. The Sprint lie for the winning # 7 shows 22.1 - 45.0 1st and 2nd calls. BEST part of this is that he has the lead and is FIGHTING at BOTH calls.

Now go look at Jim's "energy distribution" thread where he says that this fighting costs the horse units of energy. Well if # 7 FOUGHT at TWO calls, still went on to win the race, and today figures to have NO pressure up front through the 2 calls what does this tell us about his chances. Pretty strong for the win to say the least.

This race is a perfect PATTERN of a SPOT PLAY " EARLY". Pease go and revisit the thread " Up win % by 10 points".See all this ties together.

This horse is a "lock". Even if it doesn't win it is still a "lock". Do you see this? Who the hell else can possibly beat the 7 BEFORE the race runs man? NOBODY. THESE races are the types Jim wants me to ONLY bet.

Now there are also "other than early" PATTERNS which happen regularly. I will post up one of those later to show it. Races where a "lock" also shows itself BEFORE the race runs ok?

REPEATING PATTERNS & PATTERN RECOGNITION. Keys to matching races and also a reason why Jim does a FULL card of races in 10 MINUTES. WE can learn this too.

I bet these "spot play" horses at 3/2 odds and higher at 2 mtp. Jim's instructions. PASS lower odds.

oh and if that race looks so EASY that the # 7 probably was chalk well....

here is the result chart

[RichieP]

What was just posted is Jim's " Spot Play Early". I will show other patterns including "Spot Play Other than Early".

If you are following this thread please do me one favor.

Go LOOK at the pp's for tonight's 3 "races of the week". Do you see ANY of those races looking like " a piece of cake" from a running style/ positioning point of view? I do NOT.

There is no way I bet any of those races with CASH. Sure I can and maybe I hit, maybe I lose. Those are the "guessing" races Jim talked to me about that I have to stay out of til I develop more matching skills ok?

Wanna up YOUR win % by at LEAST 10 points even when just starting out and are LEARNING the matchup?

Listen to " The Hat" and SPOT PLAY.

Richie

[emilio840]

Hi Jim

Jim, after we project the pace of the race and than we look for the horse that ran the best against the fastest pace in its LAST RACE.

Could we use a horse whose last race was 6 months ago.

emilio

[THE HAT]

Emilio,

Use any line that will project the horse as your winner. If you can't find a
running line. Use the fastest.

The Hat

[VoodooFan]

WOW, WOW, WOW and Holy Freakin cow! Thanks Mr. Bradshaw and Richie. These post in the last few days are incredible, and that is NOT an exaggeration. This is the deepest revelations on the MatchUp yet, thanks to Mr. Bradshaw and Richie. Position out of the gate, Need-to-Lead horses that show they can pass horses out the gate and enroute and press and be sucessful(beaten Early/hidden Early/headed Early), Units of Energy used or saved in Position calls, checking for "fighters"(thanks for the emphasis on that Rich), Picking Horses first ,then picking pacelines(the most important point yet), solidifying MatchUp definitions of running style, .........this "Hat check" is growing into a HUGE tool chest into the serious study of the MatchUp, Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw style. Anyone NOT excited and awed by the recent posts either need to check his pulse for signs of life or rethink their dedication to the serious want and learning of understanding and beating the true reality of horseracing. This will be excellent supplementary learning material for the New MatchUp manual. After reading Mr. Bradshaw's and Richies answers and responses, I am flat out simply Blown away. Thanks for emphasizing mastering the basics Richie, this is constantly needed for us to be reminded of....other phases of the MatchUp should not be worried about until we master the basics. Great,Great job, man, I just can't say enough....just incredible. Gentleman, we have lots of study and practicing to do.

[dugoutgold]

Just wait till the book comes out, then we have a textbook for class here!

Best Doug

[Turbulator]

REPEATING PATTERNS & PATTERN RECOGNITION. Keys to matching races and also a reason why Jim does a FULL card of races in 10 MINUTES. WE can learn this too.

I don't know if I'll ever be able to handicapp a full card in 10 minutes, but I was able to do this race in about three or four minutes. My biggest problem right now is that I'm slow, but thorough.

I can see though where learning all of these spot plays will help me to pick up the pace.

Great thread Richie and Jim.

[VoodooFan]

Here goes Voodoo.

When checking running styles I find a lone Early, but there isn’t any line showing where the horse won the race, but his first two calls indicate that he is a very fast horse and will get the lead in today’s race. This is the horse I pick to win the race.

If I believe the race will go other than Early I may pick another horse with a different running style and try to find a running line for this horse. So in reality I’m picking horse’s running styles and then find running lines that will make the horse the winner.

In most instances I do not know the horse's name, or the track where he last ran. The horse that is going to take the lead is the first thing I look for in today’s race and nothing else matters. I do not apply any
traditional handicapping methods..

The Hat

Five Step Approach To The MatchUp #2) Select the running style of all horses in the race. I believe the Picking Horses method above should be.... #2b). When Richie said he started "seeing" things in the MatchUp, I said to myself I wanted that to happen to me for a long time. Mr. Bradshaw used to tell people to Graph it, when they did, they started "seeing". It didnt work for me........ 'TILL I READ THE ABOVE EXPLANATION OF PICKING HORSES FIRST then pacelines. Just a few practice runs on past races without looking at the result is incredible, to say the least. Then Richie comes in with an example a polishes "The Hat's" explanations to a candy gloss. When I did the Picking Horses routine as described, "I" started seeing the horses. Your eyes start "hungrily looking" for the Tandems, automatically. You go thru the races more quickly. It is so easily to get excited, just by doing this, but one MUST remain disciplined and methodically master each step of the 5 step MatchUp with Picking Horses then pacelines as "The Hat" and Richie described. Picking Horses then Pacelines, I find I do not care about tracks, or adjustments or gettin confused with "what if's" and "but what about that line". Finally, some light is piercing thru the cloud. Hope it keeps goin. People, do not underestimate this Picking Horses then Pacelines. Very Powerful stuff, you try it on some past races that you dont know the result, just as Mr.Bradshaw described above and Richie explains. Also, the Need-to-Lead horse that wont get the lead today, but shows he can press and pass horses is another very important post that should be thoroughly studied to no end. Good God, man, tellin me u not excited about this? Put your finger under yer neck and check your Carotid Artery for a pulse..........this is classic stuff. Besides Pirco, "The Hat", and "The Italian Mafia", you'll never find anything now or in the future to bust the reality of horseracing......unless they 'steal' from one of these sources. This is just too much. Keep soakin it up, Richie. At this rate, you're gonna be a 72 Degree BlackBelt Shotokan Priest in the MatchUp. Batman had Robin, Yip Man had Bruce Lee, Doc Sartin got Jim "THE HAT" Bradshaw, now "The Hat" has RichieP and the Italian Mafia.....'nuff said.:D

[VoodooFan]

Richie, I just read your post again about focusing only on the first call to identify running styles. Excellent piece of work. The MatchUp is so exciting and revealing that we get "too anxious" to want to start tearing into the form and tear up the track that we lose the basics, believe me. Something as simple as Running Styles can throw off everything if not mastered correctly, ask me how I know. I believe advanced portions of the MatchUp should not be worried about until total mastery of the basics is achieved. We are so quick to move on to the next step. I've read the FollowUp, Brohamers books, listen to seminar tapes, etc., and when ESP/Running Styles comes up to identify the horse, lots of debate ensues, i.e. Computer generated Energy expenditures vs the Visual Running positions of Horses in the Racing Form. Us not getting this NAILED, will hamper further MatchUp development and leave you wondering why you cannot get it to work. Each step should be mastered, as the 5 steps says, otherwise, you'll have a long and hard time trying to make other MatchUp techinques work. I type this to keep saying this to myself 'cause its so easy to want to just tear into the races. Sometimes, the MatchUp sounds so simple, you think you got it, then move on, when there is a deeper understanding for such simple statements. Again, excellent emphasis on the first call.

[VoodooFan]

Here goes Voodoo.

When checking running styles I find a lone Early, but there isn’t any line showing where the horse won the race, but his first two calls indicate that he is a very fast horse and will get the lead in today’s race. This is the horse I pick to win the race.

If I believe the race will go other than Early I may pick another horse with a different running style and try to find a running line for this horse. So in reality I’m picking horse’s running styles and then find running lines that will make the horse the winner.

In most instances I do not know the horse's name, or the track where he last ran. The horse that is going to take the lead is the first thing I look for in today’s race and nothing else matters. I do not apply any
traditional handicapping methods..

The Hat


I'm very slow doin races practicing the MatchUp. But I'd rather do 4 races doin my best than 10 doin sloppy work and repeating mistakes.

Mr. Bradshaw said once that when Doc stated that horses are creatures of habit, that this really turned him around. For me , the above quote is REALLY turning me around and my progression with the MatchUp.
When I correctly nail the horses running styles "TODAY" and follow the above quote, I can pretty much nail the race. Everything else just fall in line, like Richie said.

Most of the time, adjustments take care of themselves.
Pace Analysis of the "HORSE" is what I need to advance. Some examples:
1) a Need -to-Lead horse, from gate to wire.

2) a Need-to-Lead horse, that needs to be 1st at the quarter, but shows he doesnt need to be first out the gate, showing he can PASS horses.
3) a Need-to-Lead horse that shows he can FIGHT.
4) an Early horse that shows he can FIGHT.
5) the type of fractions the horse "used" to run and do "well" VS what the horse can run "TODAY" VS determining if he's fit or has a legitamite excuse VS interpreting or disregarding races and/or lines that don't apply TODAY VSwhat he's facing TODAY
I believe that the new MatchUp Manual can help in this, as Rich mentioned, The Hat had him draw lines thru races that dont apply. Some are easy , like todays a 6 furlong sprint and the line is from a 1 3/8 mile steeple chase, but others require judgement , so I wont use this method without further study and councel.

6) Determining "when" a horse changed his style.
7) knowing, for a fact, what is Early, Early Presser, Presser, Sustained Presser, Sustained and Late, and those with multiple running styles.
Next to Doc Sartins preaching that Horses are creatures of habit, THE ABOVE QUOTE BY MR. BRADSHAW IS RIGHT THERE WITH DOC'S. Mr. Bradshaw has continually elevated ,not only his teaching and generously imparting to us his knowledge and absolute Mastery of the MatchUp, but continuley taking the MatchUp to a High Art and Supreme Science.
Many thanks goes to the ITALIAN MAFIA for this forum and gettin Mr. Bradshaw and Doc Sartin here. You guys are doing GOOD WORK.
:)