Running styles and energy distribution - Practice Race

[RichieP]

Gonna post up this race. GOOD example of
1) running styles
2) 1st call proj pace
3) energy distribution relating to units of energy used when a horse is headed.

This time I am gonna post the pp's how Jim "sees" them. It's time to really FOCUS on how HE matches.

1) there will be NO ml odds
2) there will be NO dates on races shown :eek: ;)

I mean shoot if we are gonna practice let's remove ALL coventional stuff from the picture. lol

PLEASE feel free to work the race HERE. ALL are welcome. I will leave it up for a couple of days.

The "Hat" method:
1) Identify running styles
2) Identify 1c proj pace
3) Identify tandems
4) Find a "style" that might be favored to win TODAYS matchup based on "mix" of runnnig stlyes and 1c proj pace.

** Tip** - as you are identifying your "early" runners mentally note the 1c time for them ok? WHY? because you might have a race with say 3 early horses where running style wise you might leap right away to looking at "other than early" for the win. But if one of the earlies is DEFINITELY faster than the others at the FIRST CALL well now the picture changes.

The distance of todays race is 8.5f on the dirt

NO need to work the race fast. Jim slowed my ass down a bit a couple weeks back.

[RichieP]

the 1 horse

[RichieP]

the 2 horse

[RichieP]

the 3 horse

[RichieP]

the 4 horse

[RichieP]

the 5 horse

[RichieP]

the 6 horse

[RichieP]

the 7 horse

[RichieP]

the 8 horse. This completes the field.

Remember todays distance is 8.5f on the dirt

ok
Rich:)

[dugoutgold]

Well Rich and Jim, here is my attempt at this. Hopefully I am at least partly correct on somethings. With that in mind here we go..
No meaningfull tandems that I could see here.

#1 S type running line 9 won against this call 47.1
#2 S type running line 5 a mile race but a 47.1 call
#3 S type from start to finish, WOOF!!! out!!
#4 EP or E best race was line 10 but against a much slower pace, line 5 seems the correct line against this field, out!
#5 Ep type line 4
#6 E type (ntl=need to lead) both 5 and 6 have the same 47.4 call, hmmmm
#7 prob an EP type here from line 10 at a slower pace, another woof woof, out!
#8 S type on the dirt here, running line 3 against a 47.3

the 6 will try for the lead with the 5 right on his cabbose, both should burn it up setting up this rae to run sustained. This is a far as I can take it thus far but I hope I got something right:) Doug

[emilio840]

Running styles:
#1 S
#2 S
#3 S
#4 P
#5 E
#6 E
#7 S
#8 S

The Tandems are: 2,3, 8 Poco Bueno
2,3, Criminal Mind
2,6 Seeking the show
3,6 Esclarecido

The 1ST call Projeceted Pace is 47.3

The way I see the race is that 6 should take the lead and wire the field. Because in his last race he ran head and head for the first two calls at a 47.1 and he still managed to get 2nd. The #5 can not do better than a 47.3

The only two horses that I am afraid of is the #2 horse because he beat the 6 in the tandem race. But, the #6 did not get the lead in that race.

The other horse I am afraid of is that Sprinter the #7 horse. He looks to be the fastest horse in here, But his last 4 races were REALLY BAD.

[Turbulator]

I like the 1 and the 8.

[admin]

Hi Jim and Rich

here is my attempt at this practice race

for Running styles
1. NF= No Form Sprinter
2. SUS
3. NF
4. SUS
5. Early
6. Early
7. NF
8. Sus

For first call Proj time= 47.4 or 1 (its hard to see the numbers on my screen shot)

For tandems horse 3 and horse 6 but its hard without the names
to be sure

I see the 5 and 6 as early but not too good
I would enter them into my program
then match up the best of the four Sus runners
and bet the best two

Bill

[gl45]

Sustain 4 Horses 1-2-3-4
Presser 1 Horse 8
E/P 1 Horse 5
Early 1 Horse 6

Poco Bueno tandem 2-3-8 keep 8
Escalerecido tandem 3-6 keep 6
All the horses kind of sucks

Contenders 5-6-8

Projected time 47.1 113

#5 line3
time 47.4 113
pos 1 1

#6 line1
time 47.1 113
pos 1 1

#8 line3
time 47.3 113.2
pos 6 3

If we use units of energy we have
#6 on the lead at 1st.call
#5 4 BL Behind
#8 8 BL behind

#6 on the lead at 2nd. call
#5 4 BL behind
#8 7 BL behind

the rest of the field will suck air
Pino

[VoodooFan]

Here' s my shot at the race
1)-sustained
2)-sustained
3)-sustained
4)-sustained
5)-early and early presser
6)-early-need-to-lead
7)-early and early presser
8)-sustained
out the gate should be a 23.4
looking at the #5's performance at a 48.2, the #6 can run slower
The Esclarecido tandem is faster than Poco Tandem- the #6 is the best in this tandem
The Seeking the Show tandem, the #2 did the best, coupled with his last good sprint at a fast pace
The #5 horse likes either go wire-to-wire or press and take the lead at the 2nd call. His recent performance leaves me to believe he will be 2nd, but will not give the#6 horse sufficiant pressure or head him
The #6 horse will not be pressed to run as fast as he did in his last race.
I think the race is going to run Early(#6)-with the #2 and #8 horse's in the money

[RichieP]

Here is the result chart of the race.

Looking at the # 7 he appears to have changed his running style in last 4 races.

the pace of race fractions on the # 6 last race
23.0 - 47.1 - 113.0

comparing the earlies ( #6 last line with # 5 line 3)

the # 6 has a FIVE lenght lead over the 5 at first fraction 23 compared to 24
the # 6 has an ADDITIONAL 3 lenght lead at the 1c - 47.1 compared to 47.4

that is EIGHT lenghts - a CRUSH in favor of the 6

On top of this the 6 also has stored EXTRA units of energy because of the "HEADING" at the 1c and 2c. Talk about gilding the lilly:)

at this point the race is OVER and a sauntering to the betting window is called for.

EIGHT lenght edge over the ONLY other early PLUS extra units of stored energy because of the heading that happened at 1c and 2c

How fast can you say " SPOT PLAY EARLY" :)

Result chart shows the CRUSH clearly

"Take these all day long Rich. All day long." - "The Hat"

[Turbulator]

EIGHT lenght edge over the ONLY other early PLUS extra units of stored energy because of the heading that happened at 1c and 2c

How fast can you say " SPOT PLAY EARLY"

Result chart shows the CRUSH clearly

"Take these all day long Rich. All day long." - "The Hat"

I have to admit I completely missed this, but the example and explanation points me to the errors of my ways.

Thanks, Richie, much appreciated.

[RichieP]

I have to admit I completely missed this, but the example and explanation points me to the errors of my ways.

Thanks, Richie, much appreciated.

Steve
it's cool. I miss **** too.

One of the things I can tell you to help picking things like this up is FOCUS on the LEFT side of the running line. While most look to the right of the running line ( finish, speed rating, track variant, adjusted times etc etc) the matchup JIM'S way looks LEFT for it's hidden power.

1) Break
2) 1st fraction in routes
3) 1c
4) 2c
5) running styles based on 1c POSITION
6) Understanding that a gain or loss of POSITIONS involves units of ENERGY

Of this I am CERTAIN ok?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

These last 2 races involve early PATTERNS on very STRONG horses. I can not tell you how important it is to get these races in your "HEAD" ok? I am serious.

**Tip** - Handicap every race the SAME way. Whether a 4.5f DIRT race at CT to an 11f TURF race at Belmont. Work every race the SAME way.

Do they always win? We know the answer is no.

However I have never had a game plan so CLEAR in my mind. This comes from working hundreds of races with Jim and seeig him do the same process regardless of distace or surface.

Richie

[dugoutgold]

Rich, well i blew that one. Have a question though, I looked at the 6s 1st line but..it was on the slop. So I take it yourself and Jim use these lines???

thanks for the race, it was fun! Doug ps: Wondering how do you and Jim feel about using offtrack lines??

[RichieP]

[QUOTE=dugoutgold;12713]Rich, well i blew that one. Have a question though, I looked at the 6s 1st line but..it was on the slop. So I take it yourself and Jim use these lines???
QUOTE]

Hi Doug,
I use ALL the lines in the pp's so YES I use off track lines.

BTW you didn't blow" the race. We just learned something! That's EXACTLY what Jim tells me when I miss so I "pass it down the line" to you!

We learned something :)

stay cool
Rich

[emilio840]

Hi Richie.

1) Break
2) 1st fraction in routes
3) 1c
4) 2c


Richie I have always known that the First Fraction in a Route is at the Half mile call. Is this what you mean? Or do you mean at the 1/4 mile. Because I notice that you did use the 23 and 24 time of horses #5,#6.

Emilio

[RichieP]

[QUOTE=emilio840;12720]Hi Richie.

1) Break
2) 1st fraction in routes
3) 1c
4) 2c


Richie I have always known that the First Fraction in a Route is at the Half mile call. Is this what you mean? Or do you mean at the 1/4 mile. Because I notice that you did use the 23 and 24 time of horses #5,#6.

Emilio


Emilio,
the first fraction in a route is the 1/4 mile time. The first call is the 1/2 mile.

YES I always look at the first fractions in routes. That's what I was taught to do.

You nailed the practice race with your FIRST impression. NICE!!

I'm at the track typing this so lemme get back to the races.

Rich

[VoodooFan]

Good practice race Richie. You are keeping us FOCUSED on the basics.
[list]
The break position, 1st call Position to Determine Running Style, Identifying Tandems and Running Styles.
If we are unsure and cannot nail races like this, this shows us we need to REALLY nail the basics. I was still unsure of the #5, what he will do TODAY.
THESE are the kind of drills we need, constant PATTERN RECOGNITION. We should not cheat ourselves 'cause we so anxious to go the window. I like the way you present it "AS THE HAT GOES AT THE FORM", and as "THE HAT SEE'S RACES".
If we are to attempt to develop BRADSHAW type skills, we need to nail this. PICKING HORSES FIRSTTHEN PICKING PACELINES , helped me with this exercise(bring more drills of this). Also, more drills on not using beaten lengths. Good, Good teaching material Rich.

[emilio840]

Thank you Richie.

emilio