Practice race from "The Hat"

[RichieP]

Jim picked this race himself and asked me to post it up.

This is a "Hat Special" :)

Again we will "see" the pp's like he does
NO dates
NO ml odds


He asked me to tell you " Remember identify running styles and project your pace from the FIRST call."

EVERYONE is welcome to post their working of the race here. Jim asked me to leave it up here for a few days and give folks a chance to work it and see it.

ok the distance of TODAY'S race is 8f on the dirt

this is the screenshot of the 1 horse

[RichieP]

the # 2 was scratched. This is the # 3 horse

[RichieP]

the 4 horse

[RichieP]

the 5 horse

[RichieP]

the 6 horse

[RichieP]

the 7 horse

[RichieP]

the 8 horse to complete the field

TODAY'S distance is 8f on the dirt

[VoodooFan]

#1) early
#3) sustained presser
#4) early and early presser (need-to-lead at 2nd call)
#5) sustained
#6) early and presser
#7) early and early presser
#8) early/need-to-lead/gate to wire
the Corporate Laddar tandem is the prevailing tandem, but will probably not run that fast
the Tiffany Gold tandem, #5) beat the #3) as a Late runner
the #8) will get the lead out the gate; has gotten with times of 22.3, 23, and 22.4.
the fastest of the early horses out the gate is the #4 with 23.1; he will be 2nd behind the #8. This eliminates the #1 and #7.

The #8 horse likes to lead at the first two calls and will at least get it , but he cannot fight off pressure after 2nd call; recent race leaves his condition suspect ,also.
The #4 pressing recently, get the lead at the 2nd call in a 114,and still faded. He will not get the lead over the #8 horse at the 2nd call, he's out.
The race seems to set up "other than early". The #6 will be third, passing the #4, but recent race shows his condition is suspect.
Between the #3 and #5: the corporate ladder tandem, the #3 will not have those horses in front of him. The #5 beat #3 as a Late horse, and #3's position should improve today.
The #3 will win the race, with #5 in the money.

[gl45]

Projected pace 22.4 47 112.3 143.3
All horses best pacelines are taken at 1.7 mile

Early 5 horses 1-4-6-7-8
Sust 2 horses 3-5

#1 line2 time 24.0 47.3 112.4 143.4 OUT too slow
position 1 1 1 1

#3 line6 time 22.4 47.0 112.3 143.3 Contender
position 6 3 2 2

#4 line2 time 23.1 47.2 112.2 144.2 OUT slow 3th fraction
position 1 1 1 1

#5 line4 time 24.0 47.4 112.4 143.4 OUT too far behind
position 11 10 4 2

#6 line2 time 22.4 46.2 112.4 143.0 Contender
position 3 2 1 1

#7 is a sprinter OUT

#8 line5 time 22.4 47.0 112.3 143.3 Contender
position 1 1 1 1

1st. call
#8 1st.
#6 3th.
#3 6th.

2nd. call
#6 1st
#8 3th.
#6 6th

Stretch
#6 1st.
#8 2nd
#6 4th.

Finish
#6 1st.
#8 5th.
#3 7th.

This is my positional matchup of the 3 contenders.
#6 Win

Pino

[Turbulator]

Too much early so I look for an early presser or presser.

I project the pace off of the first two calls of the 8 horse, and the final time of the six horse--22.8 46.4 1:43 (in tenths--about a 1:38 or 1:39 mile.)

The six horse has won as an E, EP and Presser--a dangerous animal. The six horse also won the race in 1:43 from which the early pace is projected.

The six is the only horse in the race with the proper running style that can run to the projected pace.

(If you look closely you can see that the six doesn't do well with a slower pace unless he can get the lead all by himself, in which case he has wired the field.)

[emilio840]

#1 E (This horse needs to Lead)
#2 S
#4 E
#5 S
#6 EP
#7 P
#8 E (This horse needs to lead)


The Main Tandem horses are #6 and #8. (the fastest)


You can throw out all the other horses and match #6 and #8.

Or you can do it the other way. #1 and #8 both are need to lead horses. They will both do battle up to the half. All the others will be to slow except the #6. The #6 should win the race.

emilio

[Houndog]

This is another good example. I will give it a try. My initial impression is we have alot of early types in this Match-Up, also a horse or 2 that are NL type of early horses.

#1 Early horse
#3 Looks like a presser to me with these horses.
#4 Early also NL type of horse.
#5 Sustained for me in this Match-Up
#6 E/P a versatile horse
#7 Presser (does not seem fast enough)
#8 Early

I am projecting a pace of around 47.3-112.4-139.3. I suspect the race to be won by an Early or E/P type. Which Early horses can I eliminate that will not get the lead today?

To me by virtue of his versatility how this horse can win on or near the lead, and considering the projected pace I would go with #6 as my win contender.

I see several of the other Early horses trying to expend to much Energy trying to stay with each other. For that reason if I was looking to hook #6 in an exacta I would use #5

[admin]

Here is my work

For running styles

1.E
2.SP
4.E
5.E
6.both E and SP
7.EP
8.E
for times I figure 23.4 47.2 112.4 139.3

Tandams are too tricky for this guy they are a big problem
for me and the edited PP are even more messing me up
I am stuggling big time

I figure the 6 and the 2 would be good win bets

[forecast]

Hi Rich,

I love these posts that you are quarterbacking, they're just great. My simple analysis:

The 1 horse can set a pace and finish with a final time that only the 6 horse can match on several occaisions. I would choose the 1 and 6, and if I had to split hairs and select 1 horse, I would choose the 1 horse.

Thanks to you and The Hat for trying to increase our proficiency. All the best.

Forecast

[RichieP]

Hi Rich,

I love these posts that you are quarterbacking, they're just great. My simple analysis:

The 1 horse can set a pace and finish with a final time that only the 6 horse can match on several occaisions. I would choose the 1 and 6, and if I had to split hairs and select 1 horse, I would choose the 1 horse.

Thanks to you and The Hat for trying to increase our proficiency. All the best.

Forecast

Thanx for jumping in here. Doing this helps me with my proficiency too Forecast.

Last night was the worst matching I did in the 2 and a half weeks since Jim outlined a "spot play" game plan for me. I have posted up on that in another thread.

I went 1 for 5 at the Meadowlands ( betting 1 horse) and that winner only paid me $ 4.40 after being bet down from 2/1 at 2 mtp.

But I stuck to my plan,wagered Belmont today and went 2 for 3 with win prices of $ 15.60 and $ 9.60.

This race is a goodie. I will leave it here for a couple more days and the put up the result chart. Then Jim will explain a few things about the race the way he did with me when he had me work it.

I forget sometime who the heck I am talking to when we chat on the phone. He is very very softspoken but cool at the same time. He spends quite a bit of time with me and I have to give back out of pure respect.

I run EVERYTHING by him before I post up here to get his ok. He is an excellent teacher. I just pass HIS instructions and ideas "down the line".

Thanx again for jumping in Forecast
Rich:)

[gj100]

My analysis of this race has the 1,4 with the early lead with the 6 pressing.
6 closes for the win. My exacta bet would be 6/1345.
Looking forward to the results.

[forecast]

Thanx for jumping in here. Doing this helps me with my proficiency too Forecast.

Last night was the worst matching I did in the 2 and a half weeks since Jim outlined a "spot play" game plan for me. I have posted up on that in another thread.

I went 1 for 5 at the Meadowlands ( betting 1 horse) and that winner only paid me $ 4.40 after being bet down from 2/1 at 2 mtp.

But I stuck to my plan,wagered Belmont today and went 2 for 3 with win prices of $ 15.60 and $ 9.60.

This race is a goodie. I will leave it here for a couple more days and the put up the result chart. Then Jim will explain a few things about the race the way he did with me when he had me work it.

I forget sometime who the heck I am talking to when we chat on the phone. He is very very softspoken but cool at the same time. He spends quite a bit of time with me and I have to give back out of pure respect.

I run EVERYTHING by him before I post up here to get his ok. He is an excellent teacher. I just pass HIS instructions and ideas "down the line".

Thanx again for jumping in Forecast
Rich:)

Hi Rich,

Keep your chin up, the hard work will pay off. What you're attempting to do - get rid of software, speed/pace figures, mainstream handicapping, etc. - and handicap directly (and only) from the past performances is a very difficult and attractive proposition. Imagine being able to walk into ANY racing establishment in North America, purchase the pp's, and win consistently with only the tools in your mind! Now that is something worth working for.

Believe in your teacher, believe in yourself, and work your ass off. You are obviously a very bright and talented handicapper. You will get what you're after.

All the best.

Forecast

[admin]

Hi Rich,

Keep your chin up, the hard work will pay off. What you're attempting to do - get rid of software, speed/pace figures, mainstream handicapping, etc. - and handicap directly (and only) from the past performances is a very difficult and attractive proposition. Imagine being able to walk into ANY racing establishment in North America, purchase the pp's, and win consistently with only the tools in your mind! Now that is something worth working for.

Believe in your teacher, believe in yourself, and work your ass off. You are obviously a very bright and talented handicapper. You will get what you're after.

All the best.

Forecast

wow Forecast
very well said I can never thank Rich and Jim enough
for there teaching and patience and for all they give for our group

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

1 E lead or nothing
3 SP
4 E
5 s
6 EP
7 EP
8 E lead at all costs; pace of race line 5 22.4-47-112.3-143

8 takes lead and beats off the rest of the early types, probably gets pressured by one or more of the e-e/p's, #6 (line2) pounces in stretch to win easily, #5 from way off for 2nd or 3rd

6 Win
8 Place
5 Show

[RichieP]

Here is the result chart of the race. A LOT of folks have the race nailed!
Jim will come on tomorrow and post up a few thoughts about the race. He is off to the casino today for some wagering:)

Rich

[RichieP]

Jim will come on tomorrow and talk about the race.

I posted this in another thread but want to repost it here please. It is THAT important to matching horses "The Hat" way. It is transforming man. Here it is
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANYONE seriously matching Jim's way who comes from a "value oriented" backround like me HAS to make every attempt to lose the EXPECTATION of payoff when working and matching a race. The difference is startling.

SERIOUSLY
----------------------------------------------------------------------

HIDE or somehow IGNORE the ml odds. HIDE or somehow IGNORE the ml odds.

all the best
Richie

[Turbulator]

I am going to interject a thought here, and anyone can correct me if I'm wrong.

When matching up horses a lot of people are also picking place and show horses. Very often, if properly executed, the matchup will find the winner, but other contenders will usually run out.

I belive Jim has even said that the matchup is for "picking winners."

I also don't see anything wrong with betting two horses to win now and then--price permitting, especially if you have two horses you can't separate.

However, exactas might be a tough proposition using the matchup. If you can't separate two horses, and bet both of them to win--it is much more likely that you will have the winner and an also ran--or two also rans, but not the exacta.

In my own personal experience you will get a cold exacta now and then when the race sets up for two distince horses, but more often than not you won't.

Bottom line: be very careful using the match up for exactas.

Now daily doubles and triples is a whole nother ball of wax.

[THE HAT]

Good work Guys.

Everyone recognized that the race would run other that early. I played and won this race, realizing that the race would run other than early. The five is a Sustained runner, the six an Early Presser and the seven is an Early Presser.

I can see the eight and the one will fight for the lead and the other early horses will lose interest in running, when they can not get the lead. I do not have any problem eliminating all of the early horses, or slow horses, because "fast horses" win races. The seven is slower than the five and six, out he goes. This leaves the five and six as the main contenders for win consideration. The six is faster and will be ahead of the five the entire race.

I do not play exactas, because I usually eliminate the place horse. In order to play exactas and trifectas
you must first find the winner. Then and only then look for the place horse.

The Hat

[dugoutgold]

Hi Jim and Rich, Really enjoying these posts. I have a long way to go but making some progress here. Since I still have probs with proper use of units of energy (not the smartest rooster in the henhouse here) I have been using the plot graphs in aodds98. Still have probs also getting the contenders down to 2 or 3(hangover from sofware dependency all these years) but the results are amazing. During 3 days of working Hawthorne ( just stabbing money wise here with 2 dollar bets) I played a total of 23 races making my decsions with the plot graph only after making notes of the fields running styles. I bet in all but 5 races just one horse and won 17 of them. However Im still not that confident to say I found the holy grail by any means. If I can figure out how to shrink the plot graphs I could post some examples. Its a great visual aid to me at this stage in the larning curve.
Keep up the great work guys!! Doug

[emilio840]

Hi Jim.

Is there a special way to handle a 7 furlong race? I am having problems with this distance because there are a mixture of sprinters and Routers(that don't look fast). But the Routers seem to

On Sunday in the 10th race at wox there was a horse that wired the field and had a line of 21.4 44.1 111.1 It was the fastest sprinter in the race. And a Router who also had wired his field with times of 23.4 47.2 112 145.2. The Router that looked very slow compare to the sprinter won this race.

I know that nothing works 100%, but I was wondering if there is a special way of doing a 7f race because of the mixture of horses that it contains.

emilio

[THE HAT]

Emilio,

I assume you are talking about two different races, if so this brings up a number of questions.
Was there a fast sprinter in the second race? If this answer is no, then the router has a chance.
Is the horse an Early horse?
Ask yourself these question about routers entered in a sprint race.
Did he win the six furlong part of his route race?
Is the horse a lone Early, or will the race run other than early.

If the answer is yes on the last three questions, then the internal fraction of the router will give the horse
a shot. These are the question I ask my self as I match all race. I match all distances the same, but I do
look at the configuration of the track for all distances. The location of the starting gate tell you why
the first quarter is faster, or slower at some distances and tracks.

The Hat

[VoodooFan]

Mr. Bradshaw, can you elaborate on what kind of Horse the #6(the winner) is?At fractions of 46.2 and 46.4, he presses well. But at 47 and change, he either hangs, fades badly or wire the field. Based on his last race, I assumed he was not in condition. Also, can you elaborate on the kind of horses who seem to do well ONLY with a fast or extremely fast pace. What kind of Horses are these and what makes them tick? :confused: Thanks VoodooFan

[THE HAT]

Voodoo,

The six horse has multiply running styles, or is an Early Presser that was forced to take the lead. His last two claims indicate that he has changed to an Early Presser. His last race shows that he moved to soon, which caused him to exert his energy and lose the race.

Concerning your other question:
Fast horses like a fast pace and slow horses like a slow pace.

The Hat

[VoodooFan]

Did the 47.3 , slower time, caused him to move too soon? He's an Early Presser now, and the slower time tried to make him Early, and he did'nt like it?