"The Hat" - Next Practice Race

[RichieP]

Here is this week's race gang. Hand picked by Jim.

The distance of the race is 8.5f going around 1 turn at Belmont

[RichieP]

the 1a

[RichieP]

the 2

[RichieP]

the 3

[RichieP]

the 4

[RichieP]

the 5

[RichieP]

the 6

[RichieP]

the 7

[RichieP]

the 8 to complete the field

[forecast]

Hi Rich,

The 7 horse "looms" off the page for me. He tracked a 46.3 110.3 pace last time while running a very fast race. I looked at every line for every horse in the race, and I cannot find another horse that can set, track, or overtake this pace. I think the 7 can go wire-to-wire if it wants, or sit off of another horse's slower pace and blow by at any time.

Thanks to you and Jim for these practice races, it's really fun!

Forecast

[Bill Lyster]

Okay,

I didnt find anything useful in any tandems.

pace of race: 23.2-47-111.2-143.2

1c from #7 L1,
2c from #7 L5;
6f from 1a, L1 &2, but a possible 111.1 from #3 line 3 (but he collapsed off that);
final time from 1a @ 143.3, L1 based on 111.2 @ 3/4, but there is support for this final time in a couple of other places;

It looks like 1a can over come the lead of probably the 3 and 7. #7's best time looks to have come off a 112.1, so if he has to go faster, he's cooked; #3 line 3 projects at about 143 by interpolation.

#8 can track 47.2 and 111.4, but this pace being a little hotter kicks out #8

#7's line from one turn Belmont is probably a few ticks faster than the 2 turn times of the 1a, so I like 3 to win, with #1a to place.

[dugoutgold]

wow, this is tuff:)) Eithor the 1a or the 8, 8 seems to have an edge over the 7 (the other ep) but the 1a seems to have the tactical speed (sp) at the wire.

[emilio840]

#1A EP
#2 S
#3 P
#4 SP
#5 S
#6 SP
#7 EP
#8 EP

The pace of this race should be: 23.3 47.2 111.4 143.4

There are 3 ways of seeing this race. The 1st way is looking at the fastest tandem race. Here we have #7, #4. and I could throw everything else away.When I compare the #4 and #7. I think that the #7 has the right running style to win and is also a faster horse. In their only match up the #7 did beat #4.

The second way is: #8, #1A, will take the lead and #8 should have the lead to the 2nd Call. The #7 should be running 3rd at the first call and should be moving up at the 2nd Call and should be in the lead when they hit the top of the stretch and win.

The third way is: Since the pace will be 23.3 47.2 111.4 143.4 You look at the last race of each horses and see who ran the BEST in the fastest pace. Since #7 ran the best, you compare him with all the rest of the horses that have the right running style and #7 should be the winnner.

emilio

[gl45]

The only way I could match this race:
Pace 23.3 46.4 110.1 143.2

compare #7 last line to the best lines of the field.
#7 line1 23.2 46.3 110.3 135.3 (8f)

#1 line5 23.3 47.4 112.1 136.0 (8f) OUT too slow
#2 OUT
#3 line2 23.1 46.4 112.0 144.3 (8.5F) OUT 112.0 at 2call
#4 line5 23.0 46.0 110.1 143.2 (8.5F) IN match with #7
#5 line8 23.2 46.2 111.3 145.0 (8.5F) OUT 145.0 final too slow
#6 line4 23.2 46.4 112.2 144.2 (8.5F) OUT 112.2 at 2call
#8 line5 23.3 47.2 111.4 135.2 (8F) OUT 47.2 111.4 too slow

At this point I would scratch my head and try to figure #7 or #4
Pino

[Ted Craven]

Running Styles

1a EP or P
2 S
3 P
4 P
5 P
6 P or S
7 EP
8 EP

Use #7's last line as pace of race: 23.2 46.3 1:10.3.

No one really needs the lead and 8 is slower than 7 (if in form at all), therefore 7 gets the lead, no one will pressure it, and can possibly run a bit slower, say 23.2 47 1:11, conserving energy.

#1a has never won against this pace, so probably won't today either, also since it has won it's last 3 races, it may have peaked.

#3 could be threatening, but its best line 2 was not as fast pace as #7s last; it will not seek the lead and will suck behind the 7's more relaxed pace today.

#4 was in a tandem last with #7 but certainly didn't exert itself much: can't see any threats to win.

The rest of the horses are just slower.

I don't see why #7 doesn't wire the field.

Ted

[RichieP]

At this point I would scratch my head and try to figure #7 or #4
Pino


The 7 and 4 ran in tandem race ( the last race for both) Pino.

You still scratching now? :)

Ciao
Richie:)

[gl45]

Richie,
#7 beat #4 in the tandem.
A nod for the #7 to win, but I still love the #4, call it intuition.
Pino

[VoodooFan]

1a) sustained presser
2) Late
3) Presser and Sustained
4) sustained
5) sustained presser
6) sustained
7) early presser
8) early presser
The #8 will be forced to take the lead, being headed by #7 who never takes the lead.
The 24.1 out the gate will make #1a run earlier than he wants. He will be 3rd out the gate, he's out.
The #7 will be heading #8 thru out the race , and will pass him, but will tire pressing him.

The #3 will be pressing the #7 , pass him.

The #3 will win , with #7 and #8 in the money

[RichieP]

1a) sustained presser
2) Late
3) Presser and Sustained
4) sustained
5) sustained presser
6) sustained
7) early presser
8) early presser
The #8 will be forced to take the lead, being headed by #7 who never takes the lead.
The 24.1 out the gate will make #1a run earlier than he wants. He will be 3rd out the gate, he's out.
The #7 will be heading #8 thru out the race , and will pass him, but will tire pressing him.

The #3 will be pressing the #7 , pass him.

The #3 will win , with #7 and #8 in the money


Hi Voodoo
ok you have the race down to the 3 and 7. Now match them up one on one using FAST lines ok?

I am gonna put up those 2 horses now - match em - Note both running styles and pace of race

Here is the # 3 horse. That 3rd line back is FAST ( check the mile time)

[RichieP]

1a) sustained presser
2) Late
3) Presser and Sustained
4) sustained
5) sustained presser
6) sustained
7) early presser
8) early presser
The #8 will be forced to take the lead, being headed by #7 who never takes the lead.
The 24.1 out the gate will make #1a run earlier than he wants. He will be 3rd out the gate, he's out.
The #7 will be heading #8 thru out the race , and will pass him, but will tire pressing him.

The #3 will be pressing the #7 , pass him.

The #3 will win , with #7 and #8 in the money


ok and here is the # 7 horse's last race - thats FAST also

Hope this helps a bit Voodoo. you are right there with the contender selection man

now FOCUS on your 2 final guys - Positioning and pace of race

who is going to be ahead of the other around the track? That's who you want. This is how Jim teaches me ok?

Rich:)

[VoodooFan]

Thanks Richie, you're right. I wasnt sure about that last line, looked too good and did'nt know if he could run near that again, looking at his other lines. That was my next question to Mr. Bradshaw. If we are going to pick THE HORSEfirst then find lines, I think we need the ability to pick out abberant lines, genuine trouble lines, how the horse runs normally, default lines; like when The Hat has you cross out certain lines. THEN, we can really and truely see THE HORSE, then pick pacelines. Thanks Rich. VoodooFan

[Turbulator]

Initially, I thought this was a hard race, and I think it is harder than the last race, but after some thought I approached it this way:
It is "kind of" a paceless race. In which case out go the sustained type runners, and sustained pressers.

(It's helpful for me to know how many horses are in each race, but unfortunately that information is hidden. I use this to help with determining where a horse is sitting at the first two calls in relation to the number of entries. Sixth by 2 at the first call in a six horse race is different than sixth by two in a twelve horse race.)

There aren't really any dominant wire to wire runners in this field.

When projecting the pace I always look for a horse(s) who actually had the lead. So I project the pace from the first two calls of the 8 horse. 23.6 47.4 (I convert everything to tenths out of habit.) I then look for a horse who has won (or run the best) against the projected pace of the first two calls. The one horse won his last race in 23.4 47.4 143.6 Almost a perfect fit. So the projected pace is 23.6 47.4 143.6

I now look for other horses who can also run to this projected pace.
No others fit except the 7. There is a tandem with the 4 and the 7, but the 4 lost by 12 3/4 lengths, so I eliminate him. That "tandem" races transposes to a 23.4 46.6 142.4 (I added 4 tenths to the final time for deceleration.) Adjusted for beaten lengths it would read 23.4 46.7 142.8

The one horse is a sharp animal, but he isn't quite as fast as the 7. His second call time is a little slower as well.
The one is also too far back at the first call. Not lengths wise, but position wise.

In fact, most of these horses (except the 7) are too far back at the first call. Since it is a paceless race the 7 can run a little slower and possibly wire the field. He may or may not head the 8. I suspect he'll closely press and pass him at the second call. He is the only horse that shows a propensity to run up close, fight, and try to take the lead. He could very well have the lead alone at the second call, and if he does I think he'll win.

Even though I think the 1 is a good fit, I'm going with the 7 for all of the aforementioned reasons.

However, I am not as confident in my decision as I was in the last practice race.

Steve

[RichieP]

If we are going to pickTHE HORSEfirst then find lines, I think we need the ability to pick out abberant lines

NO.

After identifying running styles and projecting pace we determine whether the race runs

1) Early
2) Other than Early

Once we do that we throw ALL the horses out from the " wrong style" immediately and FOCUS on the " right style" group. Ok once we isolate the running style group we are looking to for the win ALL the past performance lines are USABLE. There is NO such thing as abberant lines. Match horses using FAST lines.

1) Match the contenders using FAST lines. Jim's saying " Fast horses win races" is our guide here.

2)From your final contenders pick the horse who is closest to the lead horse as your bet. Once again Jim's instructions. I have seen him do HUNDREDS of races both before and after the fact Voodoo. THIS is what he does man.

You are RIGHT THERE with your work and contender mix Voodoo!
Keep it going strong.

Hope this helps
Richie:)

[VoodooFan]

Thanks Richie, I will give it a go. VoodooFan

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

In my original analysis I considered the 1a because of lines from Monmouth. I thought that it was a two turn mile track. Is this correct? In any event I will definitely get a list of 2 and 1 turn tracks for future use.

My question: Early Sartin cautioned the comparison of 1 and 2 turn mile times because of the longer straight run before the 6f time. If I remember correctly the 1 turn miles had 6f times about 5 ticks faster and final times about 8 ticks faster.

Does Jim factor any of this into the comparative process and if so, how?

Great write-ups Richie, keep up the good work.

Bill

[admin]

Sorry I.m late

Running styles

1A Pres
2. SUS
3.EP
4.Sus
5.S/P
6.Sus
7.EP
8.Pres

This one has me .
the 7 looks like the pacesetter
but not really much else is up there
except some company with the 1a and the 3

I would take a ahot with the 6 and the 2
I'm looking forward to the lessons for this race
Thanks Jim and Rich

GS
Bill

I would bet the 2 and the 6

[RichieP]

Richie:

In my original analysis I considered the 1a because of lines from Monmouth. I thought that it was a two turn mile track. Is this correct? In any event I will definitely get a list of 2 and 1 turn tracks for future use.

My question: Early Sartin cautioned the comparison of 1 and 2 turn mile times because of the longer straight run before the 6f time. If I remember correctly the 1 turn miles had 6f times about 5 ticks faster and final times about 8 ticks faster.

Does Jim factor any of this into the comparative process and if so, how?

Great write-ups Richie, keep up the good work.

Bill

Hi Bill
what Jim teaches is to look in the form for horses that have raced at both 1 and 2 turn routes. From that he makes a comparison on the times. So YES he definitely does do some comparing.

Richie:)

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

Sorry to be a pest. I was looking for a little quantification on the topic of 1 and 2 turn mile times. In this week's lesson the 1a's races were 2 turn races and application of any significant part of the 5 tick/8 tick adjustment would or could change the comparison of the fastest times and ultimately the projected winner because the 1a being an invader from outside the Bel/AQu/SAR circuit in this race.

I understand that we have not addressed track class or recent track records into the discussion either (and may not), so if this subject is too tangential for current consideration, so be it. I was just trying to integrate the old with the new.

Thanks,

[RichieP]

Richie:

Sorry to be a pest. I was looking for a little quantification on the topic of 1 and 2 turn mile times. In this week's lesson the 1a's races were 2 turn races and application of any significant part of the 5 tick/8 tick adjustment would or could change the comparison of the fastest times and ultimately the projected winner because the 1a being an invader from outside the Bel/AQu/SAR circuit in this race.

I understand that we have not addressed track class or recent track records into the discussion either (and may not), so if this subject is too tangential for current consideration, so be it. I was just trying to integrate the old with the new.

Thanks,

Hi Bill
Ok Jim told me to speak frankly and honestly what I do so here goes.

When I FIRST started 6 months ago learning the matchup Jim sent me a track to track adjustment chart.

I asked him if HE used it and he said " Rich I rely on my mind to recognize differences in track speeds. patterns repeat and then become firmly part of our mind when we work races going forward. NO I never look at anything written."

Bill I promised myself from day ONE that if this man was gonna teach me I HAD to do ONLY what he does ok?

So I deleted the chart without ever referencing it.

What I do is look at shippers and trust what comes into my mind. Sometimes I am wrong but with experience I am " making calls" on horses better and better. It is totally a FEEL thing Bill. I honestly do NOT quantify anything

One thing I DID "see" in this race when Jim had me work it was the 1a shows a Belmont 8f line in his pp's - when I matched that with the # 7 last line it was no contest i favor of the 7 horse. PLUS the running styles in BOTH races was the same - Early Presser so I felt doubly confident in the 7 and QUICKLY threw out the 1a.

THAT is one of the BIG advantages of matching " The Hat" way. We use the WHOLE past performances on the horses to help us compare and matchup. It did seem strange at FIRST but with practice it is so POWERFUL and natural NOW it's crazy.

Hope I am not coming across like some kind of expert or whatever cause thats not how it is. I DO know what Jim does and follow ONLY what he tells me to do. NOTHING extra is added.

He works EVERY race the SAME exact way Bill. From a 4.5f race at Charlestown to a 9f Turf race at Santa Anita.

From this comes REPEATING PATTERNS and that is what is starting to happen with me. Jim tells me part of intuition is recognizing patterns that REPEAT.

Hope this helps and sorry if I rambled on a bit :)

Richie

[VoodooFan]

Rich, you are giving GOOD answers. You are really giving us the "inner workings" of The MatchUp "Bradshaw" style. Now that I think about it, going over all your MatchUp post, together, they could be called ....hmmm......"The Tao of THE HAT"(the Way of the Hat). Great stuff. ;)

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

Great answer, was way clear and I get it. Lets go forward! I understand what you are saying.

thanks,

bill

[RichieP]

Result chart of the race.

[gl45]

To be honest I was leaning toward the #4. I had to agree with Richie about the #7 who beat the #4 in the tandem. As we talked before I have tendency to pick the place horse more than the winner. In this case I would bet both to win as Richie knows.
Pino

[emilio840]

Hi Jim: How are you??

Since most of us are Rookies with the matchUP what do you advice. 1) Do the hcp before we go to the track. 2) Hcp each race as it goes by.

The reason that I am asking this is because I noticed that if I hcp a night before and the next day I go to the track. In some races, there will be scratchs and I have to re hcp the race again. In the last 3 times that I did this. The horse that I picked the night before WON the race but because of the scratches I went on another horse.

emilio

[THE HAT]

Arrive at the place of action early, because you must be ready
to attack. This is a new day and must be faced with confidence
and a positive attitude. Any negative attitudes or thoughts
should be cast aside. Make sure you have everything needed for
today's battle.

Here are reasons for early arrival:

1. Locate a comfortable, quite well lighted area.
2. Locate the betting machines and obtain a voucher,
because if there are long lines you don't want to get
shut out.
3. Get early scratches, track conditions, and if races
are off the turf.
4. If attending a simulcast outlet, locate the monitor
for each track.
5. Review races to play and ones to disregard.


Handicap in advance as much as possible, because once the
action has started it is possible to become uncertain and make
mistakes.

Tips for Advance Handicapping:

1. Divide your Racing Program into segments for each track.
2. Identify the running style of all horses.
3. Place a mark by early pace runners with pace figures
that shows the inability to gain or maintain the lead.
4. Mark all Match Up Tandems.
5. Place a mark by all horses that are not contenders.
6. Place a mark by the contenders.
9. Never underline the pace line.

The Hat

[CC Brown]

RichieP
Going back and seeing that the 1a had run a 1 turn mile that could not match the 7 shows a really important point to me. 1st- by using ALL the pace lines you don't have to make adjustments. This also shows why computer programs don't work. Most use 1 or 2 lines to make the calculations and that just doesn't work.

Hat

Great to see you helping people on this forum. I still use my Aodds 98 program when I do have a chance to wager and I want to ask:
1. Can I use the pace of race that the program calculates? This doesn't depend on 1 line does it?
2. It comes up with usable tandems and I assume that is still correct?
3. It also shows running style for the horses-this is based on all lines isn't it?

If these things apply it then this makes it easier to do the remainder of the Match Up.

I will start my education with the next practice race.

Thanks to RichieP for your time and effort! Glad I found this site!

Hat
How will we be able to order your new book? Will it be from you?

CC

[THE HAT]

To win the race it is essential that you recognize how the race is going to run. You must look at the first call in the race and find the horse that is most likely to get out of the gate first and take the lead. Then
ask yourself, can the horse go wire-to-wire.

The race is an example illustrating the process used to project the pace in a pace-less race. Once we project the pace, the horses will be matched against this pace to decide if they are contenders.

None of the horses in this race are Early horses. In their past performances, some of the horses have gone for the lead, but their first calls are extremely slow. This race is classified as a pace-less race, but someone must take the lead, in a pace-less race look for an Early Presser as the horse most likely to take the lead.

There are two Early Pressers in the race: (3) Artist Blush and (7) Pay Attention , but the 7 horse runs closer to the pace. The 7 will get the lead by default and go wire-to-wire.

The Hat.

[RichieP]

RichieP
Going back and seeing that the 1a had run a 1 turn mile that could not match the 7 shows a really important point to me. 1st- by using ALL the pace lines you don't have to make adjustments. This also shows why computer programs don't work. Most use 1 or 2 lines to make the calculations and that just doesn't work.

Hat

Great to see you helping people on this forum. I still use my Aodds 98 program when I do have a chance to wager and I want to ask:
1. Can I use the pace of race that the program calculates? This doesn't depend on 1 line does it?
2. It comes up with usable tandems and I assume that is still correct?
3. It also shows running style for the horses-this is based on all lines isn't it?

If these things apply it then this makes it easier to do the remainder of the Match Up.

I will start my education with the next practice race.

Thanks to RichieP for your time and effort! Glad I found this site!

Hat
How will we be able to order your new book? Will it be from you?

CC

Welcome to the board CC.

Jump right in man! The next race is gonna be a beauty.

A true "Hat Special".

Again welcome to Binder's site.

Richie
btw - software does work just fine. Lots of folks are winning with it. It's all good. Just NOT here in "The Hat Check" area per Jim's request.