An Interesting Tandem Race

[Turbulator]

When I saw this race I immediately thought of Binder. This is the type of race I used to encounter frequently when I was playing at Longacres back in the 80s and 90s. They gave me headaches then. They shouldn't be as much of a problem now, but this race was a puzzle, so I passed.

The fact is I didn't know what to do. I felt like I should be able to figure it out without too much problem. When I saw all of thoses tandem horses, I thought "yummy."

So, some things to think about. Do you throw out all of the tandem horses and go with someone else? Or, do you pick one of the tandem horses--if yes--which one? Five horses came from a last race tandem. And there are other tandems as well.

Everyone who would like to work the race go ahead. All comments are welcome. Have a question? Ask away. Give and take is how you learn. I'll post some comments and the result chart on Monday or Tuesday.

Of course I would love to hear The Hat's comments as well.

Good luck,

Steve

The Conditions

[Turbulator]

The one horse

[Turbulator]

The two horse.

[Turbulator]

The Three

[Turbulator]

The Four.

[Turbulator]

Number five.

[Turbulator]

The six.

[Turbulator]

Seven horse.

[Turbulator]

The eight horse.

[Turbulator]

And finally the nine.

[gl45]

Steve,
Just a quick look.
If today race run as the Tandem, I would pick #8 to win.
Pino

[RichieP]

Here is my look

1 - Tandem winner -in
2 - slow -out
3 - slow - out
4 - early - will push the 5 - they cancel one another -out
5 - early - will be pushed by the 4 into 22 and change -45 and change - out
6 - in
7 - in
8 - I know Emd is faster than No cal track - not sure by how much but this is enough to call him slow - out
9 - pig -out

that leaves 1-6-7 as final mix

I want to bet the horse closest to the lead from these.

The 6 is now gone - positions of 9-7 and 7-6 ( below) leave him farthest out so he's gone - out

down to 1 and 7
1 is super solid - Position 3-3-1 from last

7 is farther out in last but shows 3 races from below where positionally he can be at least as close as the 1 . the 8th race back beats the 1 positionally
3-2-1 and that race was from 110 2c pace.

I would pass the race as I am basically guessing now tween the 1 and 7. I dont bet races like this anymore.

PASS

Rich

[admin]

Steve I have no clue I am doing bad with tandems
I see them they freak me out and I have a mental block
If anything they are taking away any edge I had before
I could probably work with some other tools like
APV and the VDC readout If I was doing the race
live This format of showing the race "Hat style"
is what it is

this one is a pass

[Jonathan Steele]

Bill,

Hi. Have you ever considered the guidelines regarding tandem horses contained in Michael Pizzolla's Reversal Protocol? Perhaps that may help clarify things.

All the best,

Jon :D

[CC Brown]

The 1,3,5,6,7 tandem race was run and won by pressor. The 5 was the lead horse and was pressed too hard to hold on.
The pace of today's race- I'll pick what the tandem ran.
22.3 45.9 110.2 144.2
Running style 1-P,2-P,3-P,4-E/P,5-E/P,6-S,7-P,8-S,9-S
The 2,3 and 9 are too slow
8 never has seen this fast a pace. I'm taking him out.
This leaves 1,4,5,6,7.
The question is can the 5 hold on this time over the 1,6,7 or will the 4 press him enough to make him fold again.
4 has two line line 2- 23.3 46.5 110.5 from this line it doesn't look like it but
line 9 22.5 45.5 110.6
This is against the 5's 22.3 45.9 110.2 It looks like the 5 will have early pressure from the 4 then be facing 3rd call pressure from the 1.
This race looks like it runs exactly like the tandem did before. With the 4 & 5 trying for the lead and the 1 again winning.

The tandem rule I learned was since the 1,5,6,7 were so close last race bet on the highest odds horse or horses. If the races sets up differently then these horses become the value bet. I don't believe that is the Hat's tandem strategy.
CC Brown

[Turbulator]

I looked at this race a little bit differently. The five got a nice easy lead last time out with no apparent pressure and still spit it out. So I didn't like him to wire this field. If he couldn't wire it last time with no pressure, why would today be any different? I didn't see the four as a fast enough horse to bother the five on the front end. I made the four a presser not an early. I felt the five would run the same type of race as last time getting out all by himself.

I liked the one obviously, but I didn't want to make him my choice for no other reason than only 12% of tandem winners repeat. 12% is about 7.5 to one, and he was nowhere near that. In other words he was very vulnerable and not a good enough price, but I didn't see how I could throw him out.

That left the 3,6 and 7. The 3 got beat by too many lengths in the tandem leaving the 6 and 7. I just couldn't seperate the 1, 6 and 7, although I liked the 7 a "little bit" better than the six because he ran closer to the pace, as Richie stated.

In the end I was just too confused to bet.

Two questions for Richie and others.

1. Why do you think the four will go with the five? Why do you call the four an early horse? He doesn't usually get the lead and the five looks to be just enough faster to shake him off. Pressers don't normally set the pace, but rather follow the pace setters. Unless you think he is just going to push the five faster than normal. I just don't see it this way.

2. Since in your analysis you seem to have it narrowed down to two horses, why not bet them both to win if they are both over 5/2? I know you're only betting one horse now if you're getting 3/2 or better, but is there anything wrong with dutching as long as both horses are 5/2 or higher? Isn't it appx. the same thing?

Thanks,

Steve

PS If Jim would care to say something about this race, I'd love to hear his analysis. I'll wait until after he comments to put up the result chart.

[RichieP]

Steve

1) the 4:
Line 3 sprint - 22.3 - 2hd - fighting to get the lead in a 5.5f race
Line 9 route - 22.2 - 45.2 - 1c on the lead - 2c- 2hd fighting for the lead


2) I do NOT bet 2 horses. I bet using Jim's " Okie Math".

Matter of fact I do EVERYTHING Jim tells me to do. He's not God but his **** works. I have a large ego but have LEFT it at the door to learn the Matchup.

An example of this was my wagering Saturday.
1) Aqueduct - I bet and lost ALL 5 races there. 0 for 5 ( Partsnut this answer your question about losing races in a bunch?) Shutout -zippo

2) Keeneland - bet 6 races and won 4
6.40
7.20
14.40
20.80
-----
$ 48.80

Overall
Bet 11 races - won 4

Bet ($ 2.00 unit)
$ 22.00

Ret
$ 48.80

ROI - about 120% - THAT IS OKIE MATH

Rich

[THE HAT]

Steve

This race is a very difficult race to match, because of the Tandem and
the mix and match of other horses in the race.
It is very difficult for me to read past performances on the computer.
I would have passed the race before the Tandem and I can see no reason
why I wouldn’t pace now.

The Hat

[Turbulator]

Steve

This race is a very difficult race to match, because of the Tandem and
the mix and match of other horses in the race.
It is very difficult for me to read past performances on the computer.
I would have passed the race before the Tandem and I can see no reason
why I wouldn’t pace now.

The Hat

Thank you, Jim. It is also very difficult for me to read PPs on the computer. I have to squint, and sometimes I have to take out the magnifying glass. I'm wondering if there is a way to make the PPs any bigger without using too much resources.

There are so many races that come up like this, that's why I posted it. What's interesting about this race is that neither the five nor the four went for the lead, but it was the one who tried to steal the race.

I've attached the result charts.