New Pace question

[Jake]

Dave Schwartz says in New Pace, that E is 1st Fraction only and Late is not E, meaning all the other calls except for the First call, or 2nd plus 3 Fractions only.

My question is, do I assume that's is how it is being calculated in RDSS NP screen?

Jake

[kahunab]

Jake,
Others may view it differently, but the way I look at New Pace is that it gives us an overall look at a horse's performance from his entire past performances showing. In other words, statistically he will run between the low and the high speed rating shown in his graph 90% of the time. This is all based on statistical measurement. What Dave Schwartz proposed was that if the race ran late we look to the low side. If the race runs early or neutral we look to the high side. Why you might ask? I think it is because if there is no pressure the horse will run closer to his most efficient, thus highest speed rating.

Don't get too exact, remember this is a horse race. But New Pace can work well together with our other ratings to help understand and predict the outcome.

Where do the numbers come from?
Here is a race from Keenland.
Note we have 13 ESP which implies a Neutral race which makes us look the the upper end of the horses graph. Not they are lined up that way. Also note that the 8 with a 71% is projected to get the lead. Our other rating indicators don't predict that. He did and led to the top of the stretch. Note also the 2 horse, his high number is 103 and his low is 90. We also see that he is the fastest horse in the sprint with a 202.86 CSR rating.
54146

Where do his graph numbers come from?
There are multiple statistics books that talk about how to measure anything. In this case with 8 races he should statistically run between the 2nd best and the 3rd worst. In this case 103 is his best AND 2nd best. 90 is his 3rd worst.

54147

I hope that helps.

Dick

[Ted Craven]

Dave Schwartz says in New Pace, that E is 1st Fraction only and Late is not E, meaning all the other calls except for the First call, or 2nd plus 3 Fractions only.

My question is, do I assume that's is how it is being calculated in RDSS NP screen?

Jake

You are essentially correct. NewPace in RDSS is calculated exactly as described in Schwartz' Original and Advanced NP videos and example spreadsheets. Our interpretation of that relative balance of Earliness and Lateness - and what to do with it in context of other RDSS/Sartin analysis - may be unique to the RDSS environment, as would be our use of Speed Ratings (typically TrackMaster SRs).

We accumulate 'Early Speed' points from a horse's entire performance at the 1st Call point. We allow for extra points for finishing well when up close at the 2nd call point - so there is at least a hint of performance appreciation through the 2nd call.

We then rate the horses with ES points accumulating through the 62% mark. A horse on that boundary is identified as a potential 'Swing' horse (can go either Early or Late, depending). All other horses (i.e. having lower ES points) are identified as Late running horses. This points accumulation through 62% - and designation as Early/Swing/Late - is demonstrated in the Early Speed % column on the NewPace screen, and is sortable by those ES% values to more clearly see the flow from Early through Late runners.

Again, as Dick points out - all this as measured by likely upper range and likely lower range of SR over the horse's last 10 lines. I believe we have nuanced the application of sorting horses by low SR range versus upper SR range depending on our estimate of likely Visual Pace Pressure. I credit Dick with making numerous functional application of these pace-related tools.

Also agreed - we need some better NewPace documentation (without going overboard) for those who will be newly encountering NP and who do not possess Dave Schwartz' documentation - or whose eyes glazed over by it :)

I hope that helps, Jake!

Ted

[Jake]

Jake,
Others may view it differently, but the way I look at New Pace is that it gives us an overall look at a horse's performance from his entire past performances showing. In other words, statistically he will run between the low and the high speed rating shown in his graph 90% of the time. This is all based on statistical measurement. What Dave Schwartz proposed was that if the race ran late we look to the low side. If the race runs early or neutral we look to the high side. Why you might ask? I think it is because if there is no pressure the horse will run closer to his most efficient, thus highest speed rating.

Don't get too exact, remember this is a horse race. But New Pace can work well together with our other ratings to help understand and predict the outcome.

Where do the numbers come from?
Here is a race from Keenland.
Note we have 13 ESP which implies a Neutral race which makes us look the the upper end of the horses graph. Not they are lined up that way. Also note that the 8 with a 71% is projected to get the lead. Our other rating indicators don't predict that. He did and led to the top of the stretch. Note also the 2 horse, his high number is 103 and his low is 90. We also see that he is the fastest horse in the sprint with a 202.86 CSR rating.
54146

Where do his graph numbers come from?
There are multiple statistics books that talk about how to measure anything. In this case with 8 races he should statistically run between the 2nd best and the 3rd worst. In this case 103 is his best AND 2nd best. 90 is his 3rd worst.

54147

I hope that helps.

Dick

Thank you, Dick. I appreciate that you took the time to give me a well thought-out answer. I will repaid down the road, please count on it.

Jake

[Jake]

You are essentially correct. NewPace in RDSS is calculated exactly as described in Schwartz' Original and Advanced NP videos and example spreadsheets. Our interpretation of that relative balance of Earliness and Lateness - and what to do with it in context of other RDSS/Sartin analysis - may be unique to the RDSS environment, as would be our use of Speed Ratings (typically TrackMaster SRs).

We accumulate 'Early Speed' points from a horse's entire performance at the 1st Call point. We allow for extra points for finishing well when up close at the 2nd call point - so there is at least a hint of performance appreciation through the 2nd call.

We then rate the horses with ES points accumulating through the 62% mark. A horse on that boundary is identified as a potential 'Swing' horse (can go either Early or Late, depending). All other horses (i.e. having lower ES points) are identified as Late running horses. This points accumulation through 62% - and designation as Early/Swing/Late - is demonstrated in the Early Speed % column on the NewPace screen, and is sortable by those ES% values to more clearly see the flow from Early through Late runners.

Again, as Dick points out - all this as measured by likely upper range and likely lower range of SR over the horse's last 10 lines. I believe we have nuanced the application of sorting horses by low SR range versus upper SR range depending on our estimate of likely Visual Pace Pressure. I credit Dick with making numerous functional application of these pace-related tools.

Also agreed - we need some better NewPace documentation (without going overboard) for those who will be newly encountering NP and who do not possess Dave Schwartz' documentation - or whose eyes glazed over by it :)

I hope that helps, Jake!

Ted

Ted, thank you. I know Dave's documentation quite well. I tested it against a huge database of races when it originally came out. My question was targeting if RDSS uses his definitions of early and late the same way for NP.

Currently, Dave is promoting his AI pace model within his new deTerminator program and discusses the different ways he looks at each fraction and how they can be viewed as a matchup method, a new modification of his old NP stuff. I recommend you and anyone interested in Leverage/Pace take a strong look at that.

Two quick takeaways. You will realize quickly the value of using RDSS for processing pace seqments. Secondly, LOL here, you will also appreciate Ted's clean user interface expertise and transparency. Be grateful, guys, very grateful.

Jake



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