Parx r9 4-29

[Lt1]

This is the race that we talked about on our zoom meeting tonight. Here were my picks for the day.
PARX 4-29
TRK FAST
R1 2-5-1-7 LS6
R2 6-5-7-2 LS4 MDNS
R3 6-2-3-1
R4 5-4-3-6 MDNS
R5 1-2-3-4 LS6
R6 1-3-7-4 LS6 LS8
R7 5-7-1-2 LS3
R8 4-2-7-5 ;S3
R9 5-3-7-4 LS6
R10 2-10-9-4 LS6
GOOD LUCK
Tim
Here are the BL/BL, RX & Leverage screens shots for the race.
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The winner[#5 tiered #3 on BL/BL. Since the #6 did not have a top 5 PL OR BPP ranking I made it a non contender. Note that the 6 coming off a big mdn win ranks #5 on tt[ as I stated whenever a mdn winner goes against winners for the 1st time Doc had pointed out that it should rank in the top 2 tt to have a chance to win. He pointed out the mdns tend to loaf on the turn in their races. I believe this info was published in the FU[I will attempt to find it]. Also something I did not mention was that its] %med was to late to win at this distance at Parx. On the RX screen the winner tiered #2 while the 6 is 7th however please observe that it IS an RMath LSP ranking #2 VDC & #4 CSR. On the leverage screen the winner tiers #2 and the 6 &7. Please keep in mind that the rankings are based on my capping and not as recommended in the Leverage approach although in this case all pls were within the top 3 lines. I hope this info will prove useful in the long run/
Tim

[kahunab]

Nice Work, Tim!

[Lt1]

Thanks Dick. Also I like to thank you for pointing out how many times one of the arrow horses wins or places. I did a 100 race survey, again based on my capping and paceline selection and had the following results An arrow horse won 64 races and an arrow horse placed in 68 races. Very nice results when used in conjunction with other factors. Thanks again for sharing that info.
Tim

[dadams6357]

Tim
Tim I have heard of various methods.
One being if the Mdn is running for half the class it won its maiden at , it would stand a chance. That has not always worked out for me.
You have cleared that handicapping problem fup or me.
Thanks Much appreciated.
Don

[Lt1]

You are welcome Don. All those spent in the bar after a seminar day with Doc, Hat and others did payoff. A lot of interesting things used to come out of those bs sessions.
Tim

[Lt1]

Don I think what you mentioned above was based on 2 or 3 yr olds winning their last start of the yr an turning a yr older on Jan 1. For instance a 3 yr old won a 50k race in Dec and now turns 4 on Jan 1. The most likely spot for this horse to run in is between 20 & 25k. I won't fit at 50k vs proven older horse winners.
Tim

[shoeless]

Tim

Thanks for the info and putting up the screen shots

Jeff

[Lt1]

Anytime Jeff. That is what the site is for.
Tim