False Early horses, %Med Tool Etc.

[Mitch44]

Something that needs to be learned is that ; Any Early horse that can not carry its speed into the 2nd FR is a false Early and is a non contender.

This also occurred in a race last night that was being discussed, the #1.

The Velocity-POH is one of my favorite screens and I always consult it. One can do many things with it.

The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks and they tend to run a lot of 5F races where the best of these E and in many cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%.

You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks.

Mitch 44 AKA "The Monkey"

[Mitch44]

Horses with a %Med of 70% and higher are Need to Lead horses and will fight to get it from the time the gate opens. If they can't get the lead they will exhaust themselves trying to get it, therefore energy used early is unavailable late their 3rd FR will be even lower because of the early exertion.

Lt1 and I and also many old Sartin have been eliminating NTL horses for years.

[Mitch44]

The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks where they tend to run a lot of 5 F races. As you decent the class of tracks. you'll run into more NTL and false Early horses, in most cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%.

You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks. This is the way racing is structured, think of it like baseball and their sent down to the minors, No curve ball gone and no 3rd FR gone and their running style. Its somewhat the old saying of cheap speed . A horse that can't get 6F at Parks may go to Pen National or Mountaineer where they card more 5.5 races. From there down to another class of tracks such as Evd.

There are even tracks that run only 4 or 4.5 F races. Of course with each strep downward the purses get smaller. And if you play the smaller tracks and bullrings you'll run into many more NTL and high % Med. horses. You can find rave with nothing but all NTL horses in it.

Smart trainers and owners will move horses around etc. to take advantage of this and their running style.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Even with one NTL horse in a race it'll have an effect on the race. Early Presser and Pressers will let it go and do to superior Total Pace/ Energy will over take it. In this situation it could still get a Place or show depending on the make up of the field.
One caveat here is that if there are 2 NTL horses don't necessarily think they will go go out there and set it up for a closer. Because if one is out of form or breaks bad etc. the duel between them may never set up. In that case its common for the NTL to loaf on the leas and steal the race. Demand at least 3 NTL horses for them to effect the race.

When there is only 1 NTL horse and it doesn't carry its speed into the 2ndFR, plus has low total Energy or Total Pace it can and should be tossed.

Mitch44

[gptx]

Thank you Mitch,

I am very new to %med. and one thing I am trying to figure out is a situation like the following.

Say you have a race with 3 or so E horses (visual) with QSP's of 6,7,8. Another horse is labeled as a P4 (visual).

The %med of the E's are between 70.4-71.0, while the P4 %med is 70.6.

The P4 is labeled as an "E" in %med column, as are the E horses, but will that P4 run with the E's at the first call based on the 70.6 %med. or will it run in it's usual pressing style, say third positionally, 2 lengths behind?

Thanks

[Mitch44]

Even with one NTL horse in a race it'll have an effect on the race. Early Presser and Pressers will let it go and do to their superior Total Pace/ Energy will over take it. In this situation it could still get a Place or show depending on the make up of the field and totally destroy your EX or TRI. While these horses are non winners they can have an effect on the race and field, therefore if their truly in your top 5 its better to keep it in and mentally downgrade it. If low total Energy, high % Med. and doesn't carry its speed into the 2nd FR toss it. Tossed them as stated earlier and if low energy it should not be in your top 5 for readouts. If in your top 5 keep it in as the program will rank it low and it won't be considered for win.

One caveat here is that if there are 2 NTL horses don't necessarily think they will go go out there and set it up for a closer. Because if one is out of form or breaks bad etc. the duel between them may never set up. In that case its common for the NTL to loaf on the lead and steal the race. Demand at least 3 NTL horses for them to effect the race.

When there is only 1 NTL horse and it doesn't carry its speed into the 2ndFR, plus has low total Energy or Total Pace it can and should be tossed.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Jesse;

If all are E horses and %Med is over 70% they'll all fight for the lead as soon as the gates open. Those slight differences are meaningless in your example, I.e. 70.0 or 70.4 etc. the difference is insignificant. The one labeled P4 in you example isn't correct it also is an Early horse. Its like that because you used the Visual ESP and that's something totally different and used only by matchers. Don't use that!

Mitch44

[gptx]

OK thanks,

So the P4 is actually an E and will run as such based on % median and will be susceptible to spending to much early energy as the others.

ALWAYS use the %med labeled running style for how the race projects to be run early?

Thanks

[Mitch44]

Yes Jesse always use the % Med.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

When Sartin went from the old % Early to % Med it was tested and proven that it was more accurate for picking winners and far superior. You should be using the %Med not visual. In fact Sartin back tested this and determined the exact cutoff point for each ESP of %Med. In Jesse good question above and example, you couldn't have a horse 70%Med and over as a Presser, it would be an Early horse.

If your looking at the Velocity -POH screen the %Med and ESP is what your looking for. The RS designation is the visual ESP and totally inaccurate. Don't use the RS as %-Med has been proven to be superior.
A horse can go wire to wire and not be an Early horse by %Med. This confounds Matchers and they assume all wire to wire winners or horses are Early. Assumptions are the Mother of all F--- ups. Don't assume go by the % Med.

Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

OK thanks,

So the P4 is actually an E and will run as such based on % median and will be susceptible to spending to much early energy as the others.

ALWAYS use the %med labeled running style for how the race projects to be run early?

Thanks


With respect to Mitch - there are many would would disagree that the Visual Running Style (Quirin Speed Points-QSP aka Visual Pace Bias-VPB and RS column on the upcoming Leverage/Pace version) is not useful, and that the %Median energy distribution ESP Running Style column is the ONLY way to go.

Study both (once you get your hands on RDSS Leverage/Pace, next week). Study the recommended usage of BOTH. Sometimes they agree, sometimes they do not.

If you accept someone else' directions, sometimes you'll get their same results, except when they applied another nuance they learned over decades of practice - in which case they 'll win and you'll lose. Thus -- study your OWN protocols until you can apply them consistently and track your results - while learning from as many others as you can handle - and who will be around to guide you.

Again, with respect. :thumb:

[gptx]

Thank you very much Mitch!

I'm sure that will help me! I've always heard/read, over and over, that horses always run to their preferred running style, regardless of pace. %median gives me a new look at an old problem I have always had; misreading pace of the race, especially early.

[gptx]

With respect to Mitch - there are many would would disagree that the Visual Running Style (Quirin Speed Points-QSP aka Visual Pace Bias-VPB and RS column on the upcoming Leverage/Pace version) is not useful, and that the %Median energy distribution ESP Running Style column is the ONLY way to go.

Study both (once you get your hands on RDSS Leverage/Pace, next week). Study the recommended usage of BOTH. Sometimes they agree, sometimes they do not.

If you accept someone else' directions, sometimes you'll get their same results, except when they applied another nuance they learned over decades of practice - in which case they 'll win and you'll lose. Thus -- study your OWN protocols until you can apply them consistently and track your results - while learning from as many others as you can handle - and who will be around to guide you.

Again, with respect. :thumb:

Thank you Ted and very true!!!

I am liking what I am seeing of Leverage/Pace very much and anxious to get it next week!

Speaking of Leverage /Pace, I have been watching the tutorial videos and realized I know nothing about NewPace. Are their any resources here at Pace and Cap to learn about NP or would it be beneficial to order the seminar from Dave Schwartz?

Thanks again

[ignacio todoberto bernal]

Thanks Mitch..........

nash

[Mitch44]

This is Sartin recommendations not mine and I adhere to his teaching unless its some of my own findings that I have fully researched. But like ice cream with 30 flavors to each their own.
Lt1 pretty much does what I do.

This is Sartin and his recommendations and that is what I use. Now things are always being added to improve the program or to help those who can't for example pick contenders which are not problem for me. I.e. Profit isn't a Sartin Factor but it was incorporated as its superior for contenders as is Prime. I've been using both for over 25 years.

Like Ted said test things for themselves and yourself. However if you want to get up and running fast and cut through the noise its not an impossible task nor should it take many years like Lt1, Werpby and I had to study for understanding and clarity before that light bulb goes off in our brain housing group.

The good thing about testing yourself is in sticks in your brain because you did the work to get it. Careful not all advice on this site is accurate or correct , after all this is an open forum and everyone wont agree. No parent believes their baby is ugly or child is stupid but others will judge with less prejudice than the parent.

In an open forum advice can be excellent or send you down a rabbit hole as everyone has an opinion. Adhere to Sartin principles and guidelines and you'll be fine.

Mitch44

[gptx]

very true Mitch, thanks!

[Mitch44]

Your welcome Nash.

Now lets talk about Routes races. Yes routes can have NTL horses in it however they won't have a % Med of 70 & over. Say what? Yes a horse can go wire to wire and not be an Early horse in a sprint or route. What they do is slow down somewhere in the race and just do what they have to win. Also the 1st FR in routes is longer than a sprint (4F) and are run much slower that sprints. The shorter the race the faster the 1st FR. Because of the slow 1st Fr in routes due to longer distance most likely a NTL may not have a % Med of 70 % and above. There are exceptions to any rule, guidelines etc. Sartin called it guidelines and did not like strict rules. Guidelines allow more judgement for different situations. These guidelines, judgements etc. allow flexibility and aide in separating your top 3 or contenders for final decisions.

The best way to determine this is to view that PP:s when picking a Paceline and if it has all 1's for the calls in its PP's its a NTL. Its %Med will be below 70% because of the slow 1st Fr. The Sus. & late horses will let it go in the 1st FR. If nothing challenges it or heads it it'll slow down till stretch and the energy it saved will allow it to fend off the closers and late horses to win. This is called walking the dog. You may find a sprinter in the race with a 70% Med and most likely its there as a rabbit to make the EP &
& P types chase it and soften them up for the closers. This horse could be a entry or another horse by the same trainer.

Key points here: Routes races can have NTL horses also and its best to detect this while pickings Pace lines.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Bottom line on Early horses if they don't carry their speed into the 2nd FR their a toss or noncontender for win. If your keeping track profiles and records then keep it in as it'll make record keeping much more accurate. BTW I don't keep track profiles or models because one Sartin change his teaching on that and I play all over when I play. I don't
care about the track, type race , surface or distance I can handle that. However if I only played one track I would keep one. Even then they can change day to day due to weather & or track maintenance.

Here's another tip I've learned . Anytime you get burned there a lesson there do be had.
Each race has a different Matchup and when I encounter a E horse with a poor 2nd Fr or doesn't carry its speed into the 2nd FR on the Velocity -POH screen I go to its PP's & click on the Velocity-POH screen and quickly determine if that's the way the horse always run and in most cases that true. However some E types run E one race and EP another or P. They can adapt and run according to the Matchup for that race. If not that horse may not force the pace and let other knock themselves out. If it has mixed %Med ESP keep it .

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Good stuff Mitch. Brohamer pointed out that mdns & routers tend to loaf on the turn and when mdn winners go up against winners for the 1st time & routers go against sprinters in sprints they are poor win prospects. I still remember the early yrs we struggled along together. Too bad we didn't have a site like this with folks like you who are willing to share valuable info that can help folks become winners. Keep up the good work my friend and I'll see you at the cashiers' window.
Tim

[AwesomeAgain]

Visual Pace Bias works well. So does Esp. First thing I do is look to see what
Visual Pace Bias is telling me. I select my own running lines. From there I look to see if Esp is in agreement with Visual Pace Bias. More often than not, and this is from my experience, Visual Pace Bias and Esp are not in agreement. I will side with Esp. Again....this is what works for me. I lost a pick 5 last year on Belmont Stakes Day that returned $79,000 because of that mistake. I like and utilize both. And for those who do not pick their own pacelines. Visual Pace Bias
helps those to utilize New Pace. :cool:

54244

[AwesomeAgain]

The screen shot is from race 1 last year on Belmont Stakes Day. Visual Pace Bias says 22 or late. But if you look at the Esp it shows and E for the 6 horse. Which made the race Early. The 3 General Partner won the race. And his E/ep shows the 2nd ranked horse in E/ep. I won the other races in the sequence and the Early Pick 5 was almost an additional years salary.:(

[Mitch44]

As I continue I'll get into analysis of the Velocity- POH screen.

However for now let me dispel something and that is NEW Pace. For me this is a non starter and for this reason. When Sartin began in the very early beginning of his venture into pace in the days of old when Pirco existed Sartin would rank the FR's 1, 2, 3 etc. and after doing that added up those ranks to create a line score, low score was best. Now that favors horses that can put together two good FR.

All FR's have an influence on a race. And to determine that influence they started to combine FR.'s and this is where EP, SP, FX Etc. was born.. To keep as a Factor they demanded a 63% win rate to remand a Factor. FX at that time was a near miss but was added later in Sartin 's later programs.

It was this compounding of FR's that moved Pace handicapping forward. Other winning Factors were developed later such as % Med, V/DC etc.
Note: See Tom Brohamer's book" Modern Pace Handicapping" page 110, copyrighted and published in 1991 for all this.

These factors emphasis a horse putting together 2 good Fr's. Howard & Tom have always emphasized 2 good FR. Throughout their lives and Tom never disparaged Howard in any way or talked bad of Howard as some of his teachers did and he removed from the Group of teachers.
This emphasis of ranking and creating a line score and the compounding of FR. into Factors ( 2 good FR's) goes back Long before any New Pace. To me New Pace is a non starter and does not in anyway supersede Sartin's Factors etc. No absolutely does not.

Now Dick Schwartz is a great handicapper and this is not to disparage him in anyway. He has nuances and learned experiences that he has learned that he employs. And they can't be incorporated into New Pace. You can only get those by joining or taking his programs. Even with that he most likely won't part with his most treasured findings. And he's earned that as a brilliant handicapper and genius at research and computer writing.

From learned experiences and years of work I can take the Velocity-POH screen and do all kind of things, some of which I'll share

So where does that leave us. I would recommend you forget about New Pace within RDSS as it is not a magic bullet your looking for. There is and are Factors within RDSS both new and old Factors that supersede it and will outperform it. There also are better ways to get contenders and secondary horses for Ex. etc.

Now there will be the naysayers that will swear by it and to each their own , we need their money in the game to profit. One can do or believe in whatever or who ever they wish that's their choice. Tin (LT1) and I and a few others won't see you at the cashier window. Freedom gives you the choice to profit by your choices or die by your sword. Great handicapping and wishing you great choices but my recommendation to you is to to forget about New Pace and learning Sartin concepts and pace hand. is a major course and challenge in its self let alone be diverted to something that's not going to move you forward.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

AwesomeAgain: I agree that a lost you'll never forget and a lesson learned.
What I can see from your screenshot was you sorted this on Total Pace which won't give you much of an insight into a race. You can improve and up your game by sorting on other Factors on this screen. I actually love this screen and never do a race without consulting it.

Try sorting on % Med. What this will do is aligned the horses by highest to lowest % Med. and this is how races are run. In other words will put this by their ESP and the order will be E, Ep ,P, Sp, S and L Now with this view, pay attention Matchers, you can Matchup horses by running style and determine who the 1 or 2 best E types are and who the best S types are ( SP S, L etc.)

Within these two groups your looking for horses that put together 2 good Fr, from this view Early types the best of the E types will carry their speed into the 2nd FR and run 2 good Fr. . From this sort looking to the left the best of E types will be ranked top on SC second call, now you can look at the 3Rd Fr and see which of the E types decelerate the most and least. The best E type is the one with the best 3Rd Fr or least deceleration. This is also confirmed by the best DCL # and total energy of the E types . This form of Match up gets rid of the worst of the E types. Depending on the make up of the race you can 3,4, or all 5 Contenders be in this group.

Now the S group your looking for the same a horse that can put together 2 good Fr's and because they lag in the 1st FR your looking for the ones that can put together 2 good 2nd & 3Rd Fr. On other screens this would this HE or hidden Energy Factor.
Of the S types the worst are one run horses that have or run only one good FR., usually the 3rd FR. They may get a 3rd or Place showing but very seldom win because they can't get up in time and win. They can win when all the speed collapse from a speed duel and they all have very bad deceleration and very poor 3rd Fr's . But you'll be able to see this also, requiring a couple of E types with very poor 3r Fr and very high % Med of 70% etc.
Again the best of S types have good DCL # and good Total Pace #
Note: I also switch sometimes to the Energy screen and look at HE on that screen for confirmation.
This is how I do the Matchup on this screen, eliminate non contenders & get the race down to my two horses, be it two E, 2 S types or best of each depending on the makeup of the race. it allows you to downgrade horses from winning and separating contenders.

Now I leave all 5 of them in and this is important for 2 reasons: if a horse owns just 1 Fr (best at that Fr, number 1, it has an influence on the race and if you scratch it the Matchup will change, also many times your 3rd or 4th choice can complete the EX, especially if you have a good contender method that accounts for multiple things or Factors, lastly if you keep a model or track profile otherwise your model will be distorted.
Now I have most of the time the top 2 or 3 contenders for win. To take this further( Matchup) and confirm my findings, especially when horses may be close doing this such as 4 or so of any one type, sort on TS or True speed this will rank the horses that are best. This sort along with DCL and Total Energy on this screen allow me to separate horses that are close on TS.

After doing this I can predict the BLBL and and other Factors before ever looking at them in most cases. I can also see if one horse will run a 1st Fr that will force others to chase it and not run their 3r Fr, when this can happened it will distort even the best Factors within the program. So pay attention to Gaps in that 1st FR.

Hoping this helps most of you and it should as this is one of the best screens in the program and shouldn't be ignored, its the springboard for all the best Factors in the program. And for Matchers these numbers on this screen( Feet per Second Fractions) are superior because they account for track to track, variants surface, distance and all adjustments. Even Jim Bradshaw didn't teach this because all or most couldn't grasp what he taught or make it work, however he did do all these adjustments but in his head. He had a genius IQ plus wrote the programs perhaps maybe not one for Sartin so he had a complete grasp of all this to include adjustments. If asked he would tell you how he adjusted for tract to track, and their variants, surfaces etc. Doing the Matchup in his head. Doing this would totally confused Matchers unless they had a genius IQ, They get winners with what he taught them but they'll lose races because of not incorporating these adjustments. The adjustments within RDSS are the best out there and superior to anything out there, and even jimmy would tell you to use them. So if a Matcher used the FPS and FR on this screen they could greatly improve their game. And for non Matcher this screen will enhance your game and is far superior to to the segment screen. Again its the springboard for every Factor in RDSS. Use it or lose it, the race that is.

Mitch44

[gptx]

Very good post Mitch! I love the velocity-POH screen and you gave me some more insight and info. on how to use it combined with other screens, thanks!

[AwesomeAgain]

Funny you mention sorting by %Med. I started doing that recently and getting a clear picture of who is early who is not. Also can so if the the early horse carries his speed into the 2nd fraction. The more we understand concepts the easier handicapping becomes. Thanks for your help.

[Mitch44]

Sartin said;" Inconsistency is the bane of handicappers" Basically bane means ruin.

Those who apply a hap hazard approach are destined to to the poor house and will meet disaster.
That means to apply a consistent approach to picking contenders, pacelines. It also means the setting within the program. Ted can elaborate on the recommended setting.

Without a consistent approach on your setting your not going to get consistent results. This is something most players pay little attention to or they start experimenting with them thinking they are better with their own adjustments. This was looked at several years back and the setting haven't changed since them. Some have their own idea what it should be.
Another way to produce better results is not to use aberrant Variants' such as -25 or +25 Most horses can be gotten with more then one line, if it has a better line use it. There becomes a point where a variant becomes totally inaccurate. Sartin later did away with 100% of the Variant, He found customers were adjusting themselves out of winners. At 50% adjustment on the Variant their winners increased.

Someone earlier asked how much is a Beaten Length in the Program? Back in the early beginnings he used 1 BL for each 1/5 of a second. That worked well until Doc got some Nasa Engineers and real big brains as teaching members. For ex. at 6 F that would be 5 B L for 1 second. That's totally inaccurate and more like 5.70. That .70 may seem minuscule, how races have you seen that were won or lost by less than almost 3/4 of a length. There is no one set number, it really depends on the distance of the segment being measured and the time of that segment. This is all computed within the program for you, there's some ways to cheat on that. For one you can make your own chart for all dis.'s and time etc. Trust me tedious. I used Excel to help, still tedious.

One doesn't have to know all that to be successful. You have to learn to trust the program ,unlike handicappers the program is consistent and doesn't make mistakes. Trust it, that's a problem that has been solved.
One needs to record results and find out what works, than it becomes yours and your confidence will grow. Find out what works than ignore the noise.

Mitch 44

[Mitch44]

Back to E horses and NTL.
E horses once they start decelerating it pretty much continues to decelerate. What separates these horses is the rate of deceleration. The more class the horse has the slower it decelerates and the cheaper horses decelerates more rapidly in both the 2nd FR and particularity in the 3rd FR.

Be careful in throwing out NTL horses just from the 1st FR., as Bradshaw said; "The race starts when the gate opens." NTL horses when you have several you should look at how they break from the gate. A NTL that breaks fast from the gate and has a lot of 1'S from the gate has an advantage because NTL horses trait is to give up when headed. Take this into evaluation / consideration when you have several.

Segment screen is a screen I don't use because it deceptive and most don't interpret it correctly. The 3rd panel is not indicative of the finish. Old users really get this wrong because at one time Sartin had a program that had horses run across the screen and it did indicate the winner. BTY you get that by looking at the best Factors in the program in the form of ranking. That 3rd panel consist of True Speed & 3rd FR, now True speed does consist of the early running of a race somewhat but SC or compounded FR's are better, HE, FX etc.. This panel is more indicative of the best S P,S, L horses etc. also HE is which tends to get overlooked. For Ex. a 6F race HE would be the 2nd & 3FRor 4F of the race its equal to EP & Sec. Call which also is 4F of the race. Now think about that for a while and let that marinate in your head for awhile. Naturally in longer races the sustained group of horses have some advantage but horses there go wire to wire also . So at all distances speed is important.

In all races speed is important and can cause horses not to run their races because of the Matchup as I demonstrated with the #1 horse that had a 60.00 1st FR this effect also has an effect on the S group not getting up also. Speed has an effect at all distances & races. Therefore I prefer to use the Velocity-POH screen. I can easily see HE on that screen & if two or so are close I can consult the Energy Screen and get the who is best on HE. Most of the time I separate close S types by the 1st FR. as the one closest to the pace are best when close on 2 & 3 FR or HE also close to where the 1st FR is is Total Pace or Energy which is important also.

Using the sort on the Velocity -POH screen is powerful in deciphering a race and for Matchers supersedes Bradshaw version on the site that most perform because they are not making all the adjustments needed & occur in a race. On the site does not include adjustments which cause them to lose many races. Bradshaw did make all these adjustments in his head with his genius I.Q. 90% or more can't get or understand or get what's on the site or basic why would you cause them to fail by overloading them with advance concepts etc. Of course it can be done and if you have a genius I.Q. and you mentally can make these adjustments. They are reduced to speed handicappers , low paying Favorites and many wire to wire horses. If your smart you will employ the Matchup from the Velocity- POH screen, otherwise good luck with that. I've hammered this point home before but Matcher have stubborn resistance to change and are driven to Match Jimmy( Bradshaw). It isn't happening! Get with the program.

In my association with Sartin & Bradshaw I observed this in answering questions. First of all they hated dumb questions however after a few drinks at the bar etc. they were more engaging to those types. But many were scared as hell to ask or talk to them. What they both did was answer & talk to them on their level & what they could conceive and understand. And talk much more at a higher level of education with the likes of Brohamer and Glen Conley Etc. Of course my dumb a-- did a lot of listening as did my buddy Tim( LT1). We did ask questions later in the night and they were kind to us.

BTW Tom Brohamer never went to the Bar and was kind to answer questions at the track.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Good stuff Mitch. Oh those nights at the bar priceless. Glen C was the teacher who lead me from loser to the land of winners working with me at Seminars and by phone during the week. I do miss all those togethers in the old days.
Tim

[Mitch44]

The 3 FR Feet Per Second on the Velocity -POH Screen are the foundation for everything Sartin, within the RDSS program, they are computer driven, consistent and make no mistakes in those numbers.

I trust these numbers to the maximum degree and when wrong most likely one has selected a bad line to represent the horse. I'll get into other reasons below. This is a big reason I stress users review the line picked to see if you agree with using Sartin guidelines of; "Using the best race of last 3 at a comparable distance & surface." Where they go wrong is a "comparable distance & surface". I go down the lines in PP's to wherever that takes. If line 9 or 10 so be it. If you accept the automatic line pick of the program expect to lose races. Verifying picked lines doesn't take that long. Program lines may be OK if only making a $ 2 bet or a fun bet but when you start betting serious money and combinations of bets where your $ or extension (increases) its a must. Your brain is smarter for confirming lines then the computer is programed. Going into a race you never want to give up any edge, especially with serious money Your better off doing one race correctly than doing 3 or 4 automatically and losing a winner to to poor ranking or being ranked 5th of your 5 contenders.

I have already talked about; "Inconsistency is the bane of handicappers." and fooling with setting or not using the recommended setting. I talked Ted into reducing the + & - variant setting to align with Sartin teaching and really from what previous setting of accepting any variant and adjusting themselves out of winners. There becomes a point where variants can not be accurately measured no matter how its done. My setting are -15 & +15. BTW on the Original Screen of the horses you can easily see all the variants neatly in one place. This gives you the chance to go back and change a line that's out of the norm Most horses or winners can be gotten with more than one line.

How else do we lose races when everything you did was correct? By playing a race with too many unknown factors. Sartin stated any race with 2 or more unknown factors should be avoided. For example 2 FTS, 2 unproven on todays surface or distance, 2 horses stretching out etc. While there are ways to judge stretch outs and evaluate them, the horse has to still prove it so its an unknown . I have my own criteria I use to evaluate them . Players get so involved with separating contenders they forget to evaluate the race overall for risk due to unknown factors.

Pick 5 good contenders, review pacelines for confirmation, check variants on Original screen, evaluate overall race for risk & Unknown Factors. TRUST the NUMBERS!!! This should get you to 65% win rate betting two horses, Sartin standard for success and or to become a teaching member.

Good handicapping,
Mitch44

[Lt1]

Well done Mitch and thanks for sharing all his valuable info. Hopefully folks pay attention to your info since you are a proven WINNER.
Tim

[AwesomeAgain]

Excellent post Mitch. Let me ask as a follow up question.(no pun intended) In regards to a horses paceline and DTV. If a horses best paceline falls outside of the set variant, should that horse be considered a toss for the win? I have been using +15 and -15 for a few years now. My reason for asking is that, as a horizontal player, I am always looking for ways to lower my wager.:cool:

[Ted Craven]

Thank you Mitch :thumb:

Ted

[Ted Craven]

This emphasis of ranking and creating a line score and the compounding of FR. into Factors ( 2 good FR's) goes back Long before any New Pace. To me New Pace is a non starter and does not in anyway supersede Sartin's Factors etc. No absolutely does not.

Now Dave Schwartz is a great handicapper and this is not to disparage him in anyway. He has nuances and learned experiences that he has learned that he employs. And they can't be incorporated into New Pace. You can only get those by joining or taking his programs. Even with that he most likely won't part with his most treasured findings. And he's earned that as a brilliant handicapper and genius at research and computer writing.
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So where does that leave us. I would recommend you forget about New Pace within RDSS as it is not a magic bullet your looking for. There is and are Factors within RDSS both new and old Factors that supersede it and will outperform it. There also are better ways to get contenders and secondary horses for Ex. etc.
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Mitch - I respect your opinion and long expertise. I accept that NewPace is not for you. However, I still invite everyone to try it first, examine and work with this and other new tools and only then dismiss it as redundant or inferior to existing tools you have described. Everyone will be surprised to see how many otherwise obscure long-priced horses it brings clearly into the mix. The stats and prices speak for themselves.

The principle of check your sources / do your own work - suggests that opportunity lies in continual digging into new ideas to stay ahead of he crowd. Especially since so much of this is being handed to you on a so-called silver-platter. I fully believe even Dave Schwartz would be surprised at what we're teasing out of his old NewPace ideas in the modern RDSS context, not as a standalone tool, but in concert with all that is sharp and still relevant about the Sartin Methodology.

Something about 1+1+1 = 5 (or more :)).

With great respect. And thanks for your posts Mitch!

🙏

Ted

[Mitch44]

AwesomeAgain,

No, I would not toss a horse outside of the recommended setting, especially small difference such a s 1-3 points as an example However you will see horses with huge differences like 10, 15 etc. particularly from turf races. In a case like that I would go back to its PP’s and look for another line. Many horses can be gotten with more than 1 paceline. You’ll find that at times there isn’t another line and, in that case, I just live with it and except the adjustments the program gives it. If I have it in my top 5 contenders, I would not toss it. I may downgrade it for some other reason in my evaluation but not for the reason you stated.

** Warning be extremely careful tossing and or hiding a horse in your top 5.** Because of the Matchup it could change the whole Matchup of the race and effect the readouts. Players think it manly or whatever to get a race down to 3 horses, this is a huge mistake and a no no. I never do that, I scratch or hide & downgrade it in my mind but I never do that in the program. It has to do with the Dream Race etc. The horse could also be a place horse for an EX. And even if not, I would not scratch it or hide it. At times there are late scratches and that horse can have an effect on the readouts. You should re-evaluate the readouts, if possible, that’s not possible on a P5 or P6 etc. You’ll just have to live with it in that case. Sometimes your 6th contender can get in and even win or have an effect on the Matchup or running of the race.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Ted,
Yes, it’s not for me and in fact I won’t update to the new version, as for me it just gets in the way for my interpretation of screens and readouts.

For some it may cause paralysis by analysis, while it may help those who can’t get contenders or place horses. For those new to Sartin Concepts of Pace it adds to confusion as there are too many other readouts or Factors etc. Getting off on the wrong foot and trying to climb the mountain of readouts is overwhelming. Lack of success from that bad start and the state of confusion drives many away. Some hang around and can’t even make TPR work after years of being a member.

I agree everyone develops their own path to navigate, even if it’s a destructive path. I agree their free to try and come to their own conclusions. They should research it, then it becomes their own or they find it doesn’t up their game. They really should not have problems with contenders or Place horses for Ex. However, they do no matter what you give them. Some are just losers and refuse to adhere to Sartin principles and understand its concepts. They are into instant gratification and won’t do the work or research to become a winner.
Readouts are like ice cream in that if you have 30 flavors someone will like every one of them and if for some reason, they luck out and they get a winner from it they can’t ever abandon it. Even through its gets very low paying favorites or its win rate is very low. Everything in the program will do that, then again other Factors will produce many more winners. Factors like vanilla and chocolate that produce many more winners and tongues find more appealing.

Yes, let then try it Ted, RDSS is the best program out there, bar none and I would recommend it to anybody. I think very highly of it. Wishing you the best going forward, we would be nowhere without the evolution of change. Sartin never rested on his laurels either.

Respectfully,

Mitch44

[rdhughbank]

Hi Mitch,

Sometimes we forget that the impetus for Doc Sartin was to "cure" gamblers from the path to destruction. We forget that the Doc developed new programs for us fairly regularly. His goal was to give us more tools to be successful at the track. Maybe the best solution is to use Doc's teaching and meld it with RDSS2. Ted is a genius who took Doc's work to a higher level, which, I believe, you are using. No mechanic uses every tool in the toolbox for every job, but all the tools of the trade lie in the toolbox for use when necessary.

I have just come back after a long and debilitating illness and found the wonder of Ted's program. Like you, I rely on the "old" methods so easily available in RDSS2, yet I have found "gold" in the newer tools, including New Pace. Doc taught us to add tools to our toolbox just as Ted did. Heck, even Jim "the hat" Bradshaw added to his handicapping genius with Doc's insights.

I hope to return to making money at the tracks in this "new" handicapping world where we wagercap exactas and trifectas. I am still pretty good at picking the winner from a two-horse 60/40 bet, but the odds do not allow much of a return on that Sartin method. Therefore, I am allowing Ted's genius to add to Doc's genius so I can once again be profitable at the track.

You may call me Bob, and I hope we can become good acquaintances in our mutual endeavor.

[shoeless]

Good post Bob

Jeff

[Mitch44]

Bob,
Some can only juggle 1 ball at a time and some can do several. Your spinning your wheels and won't be successful with a tool or so. I have many tools within my toolbox and many not in the program.

Sartin evolved over the years for several reasons such as the evaluation of computers that good crunch numbers which by hand was tedious and prone to mistakes. Alsoears of research and thousands of races to experiment with as a base for study. Those that can adapt are destined to die on their sword.

If you can't pick contenders or pace lines your destined to failure. These are simple truths, many failed to evolve with" the Doc" He even threw and threaten teachers to ad some members came into the group who were very smart etc. and contributed to the evolution. He would test it before putting it into a program. He had members send in results etc. He adjusted to things such as a factor working better at one track as compared to another. Some other better ratings came from a better Beaten Length formula because 1/5 of a second length does not equal 1 Length. It really depends on the time and distance being measured.

He kept useless stuff in the programs just because some demanded it , after all he was in business and has to please his members. Starting off if you luck out using a factor and it hits for you ,many can not give it up for something that's better etc.

There are many factors in RDSS however they are not all created equal. Hell you can pick jockey colors and get winners. Question is how many winners will you get with a particular factor etc.

I and through research use Factors that are not track pacific but work at all tracks. New factors are not necessarily the Holly Grail. New doesn't necessary mean better. Be careful what Factor you fall in love with because many won't love you back .

The numerous Factors cause lots of confusion and when Sartin honed something into a better Factor and product many would not adapt such as picking pacelines after he would or he would remove them as a teaching member. His standard for being a teacher was 65% win in a 20 race cycle.

Hell when I started back in1990 we were adding the Speed Rating and variant to chose a pace line. That doesn't get it any more. This program is so simple with Satin studies its almost impossible not to win.

I would recommend those new to Sartin or have been away for a long time, and everyone to read my post titled Beginners and Refresher course, for Sartin up to date teachings and evolved concepts as he did or get trampled. His guidelines will narrow some of the noise in the program.

I can take you there but you must accept it and apply it. To even have a chance you must pick correct contenders, pacelines and determined which factors apply to all distances, races and tracks.

Wishing you great success Bob.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Below is an example of my handicapping. I can't control prices or stewards. in race 13 the big race I had the 9 horse off at 15-1. The favorite and big horse's jockey forced in-between two horses causing serious and hindering their momentum for a better placing. The declared winner just got up in last stride or so to win.

May 17 7:55:09 PM Complete Pimlico 13 Double $7.00 2,7/6,9 $28.00 $23.80 -$4.20
May 17 7:55:09 PM Complete Pimlico 12 Pick-3 $1.00 6,10/2,7,9/6,9 $12.00 $33.80 $21.80
May 17 7:55:08 PM Complete Pimlico 11 Pick-4 $1.00 7/6,10,13/2,7,9/6,9 $18.00 $56.10 $38.10
May 17 7:23:30 PM Complete Pimlico 12 Double $8.00 6,10/2,7,9 $48.00 $86.40 $38.40
May 17 7:23:23 PM Complete Pimlico 11 Pick-3 $1.00 7/6,10,13/2,7,9 $9.00 $22.60 $13.60
May 17 6:03:23 PM Complete Pimlico 11 Double $8.00 7/6,10,13 $24.00 $60.80 $36.80


We'll discuss some of this in another & upcoming post.
Mitch44

[Lt1]

Nice work big guy Like you say we can't control prices but the capping was spot on.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Upping your Game

Another unknown factor that causes you to lose races is a race that is too contentious among contenders. Say what? In layman terms a race that has too many legit possible winners. Here is an example, your 5 contenders are all very close on Total Energy or Total Pace etc. Most races normally have only 2 or 3 legit contenders for win. In my example of Total Pace above, it’s probably going to come down to form which most handicappers will lose 2/3rd of the time. Not a good percentage %. In situation like this the race should be avoided. There another race coming along in 20 to 30 minutes and with simulcasting you can simply create your own card of 9 races to play etc. Another solution if you can’t pass which is the very best solution, is to lower your bet on a race like this and make it just a fun bet with no serious money involved. If you’re a horizonal Bettor with P3. P4, P5 or P6, races like this totally destroy your ticket, plus to play them all, well you better have some deep pockets. And vertical players such as an Exacta will be costly and the two lowest prices could come in for a low paying Ex. After handicapping, access the race as a whole on how contentious it is and how many unknown factors there are, most get caught up in analysis and fail to do this.

Mitch44

[dadams6357]

Mitch
Thanks for the thread...it gave me insight into how to use
the POH screen. I was able to hit a 34 dollar exacta.
I realize that You Tim Dick and the other heavy hitters at
times. Do not think that folks appreciate your Post.
But for myself it is like Manna from heaven.
Thanks to the Heavy Hitters that keep sharing their Knowledge.
Don

[Mitch44]

Donn,
Thanks for your kind words as their greatly appreciated. I'm sure Tim & Dick also appreciate them.

None of us would be what we are today if someone didn't help us along. WE were thankful to work right by the sides of Sartin & Bradshaw.

Sartin had a way of writing that confused many to include myself. Like most disciplines it took time to understand concept, years in fact. And for those that put in the work, will reap the rewards.

Its tuff putting up with internet gangsters, perhaps jealousy drives them to stupid remarks.

Best of luck Don in your future handicapping.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Thanks for the kind words Don. Like Mitch said we struggled [me for almost 8 yrs]. It wasn't until I retired [plus many kicks in the butt from Doc, Hat, and others] before the light bulb finally went off. And yes it does feel good to know that our attempts to help folks isn't in vain. Keep o plugging away Don and you will get to your goal.
Tim

[templar]

Hello to all the Sartinistas out there. I'm an old PIRCO Teaching member, Bert Mayne. I have been interested in Ted's work with RDSS and the fact that the software is way past the Basic programming we had "back in the day."

This latest incarnation is a great synchronicity for me since, after some physical challenges and busy calls to duty elsewhere that pushed things to the side for several years, I'm getting back into handicapping and investing in horsemeat futures.

Wow, things are so much cooler than when we used handheld Radio Shack computers. I am learning the various patterns that cash tickets for me. It's a little like the old rhyme about bride's attire: "something old, something new..."

I'm taking time to get acquainted with some of the new "windows" we can use to see important clues in our work, and finding patterns that, while in some cases are new to me, are solid gold. It's so familiar in so many ways, yet different enough to both challenging at times, and absolutely absorbing throughout.

I've always been one who looks for patterns, rather than the sharp folks who can tell you all the math, and I'm seeing some great new thing from Ted's incredible work, as well as new ways of seeing my old patterns even more easily and faster.

I wrote Ted to tell him his work has gotten so sharp that you can just figure out one exacta box and play it wherever you want. I say this because a couple of days back I meant to bet in a BAQ race and accidentally placed the bet on a race going off in Uruguay! The darned thing paid twenty-three bucks and change! OK, so the new RDSS may not really be so good it can use one box for all races, but I'm having a ball with it.

Thanks to Ted, and all of you whose insights are helping my education in this New World. Oh, and at BAQ my box paid $9.60. Hmmm.

[Lt1]

Welcome back Bert. Had the pleasure of meeting you up at the Spa at the seminars held there and also riding down on Amtrak with you going home and of course getting help from you via the phone. How you found time to help us downstate newbies while pastoring 2 Churches and running a family was simply unreal Hope your comeback is a major success.
Tim

[AwesomeAgain]

The knowledge that both Tim and Mitch have is just incredible. I can only imagine how much fun you guys had back in the day. I bet the mutuals were just incredible. This Gen-X'er wants to soak up as much knowledge as possible and apply what is being passed down. It is a great way to give back to the game, by inspiring and teaching the next generation of handicappers. You have proven that you can do well, if your willing to check your ego and be open to learning. I have had the distinct honor of conversing with both Tim and Mitch. This is something I do not take for granted. As well and Dick, Bill and Ted. You teach and share what you learned because like us, you love the game. I will say it again, I appreciate the elders of the page. Thank you, Thank you Thank you. :)

[Lt1]

Brian thanks for the kind words. True that after a seminar day the time at the bar was fun but in the early days the wagering part was a struggle. Thankfully we were able to hook up
with folks like Bert and the rest of the crew who patiently put up with us until the light bulb finally went on. Now it is our turn to pass on what little knowledge we have and to be there to help in any way we can like what was done for us.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Post mortems!
Every race you lose is a lesson learned. Take it and in due time your game will improve dramatically. Example find out why you lost a race. If you didn’t have it as a contender, is there some Factor in the Program that had it in in top 5? Pace line, could another paceline have gotten the winner? Did you have it as a contender and had the correct paceline but your analysis of top 3 or 4 was poor and you could you have gotten it? These are valuable lessons that money can’t buy and post mortems will be retained in your brain housing group forever. Especially when you find same errors repeated after a few races of same problem. This allows you to correct course for more smoother sailing. Your contenders will improve, paceline selection will improve etc. and you will have two of biggest problems as to why most lose and can’t get a handle on basics.

Mitch44

[ignacio todoberto bernal]

BEAUTIFUL MITCH !
Nash thank you

[Mitch44]

Y0ur welcome Nash, wishing you health and many winners going forward.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Money management. A book can be written this subject. Let me give you 3 valuable tips on this.
1.Only be a $2.00 bettor until you can master your proficiency. Use Satin’s goal which was 65% winners in a 20-race cycle betting 2 horses to win. You will save a lot of money by doing this and the lessons will be less costly. I also believe and have found out that if you don’t bet at least $2.00 the lesson isn’t ingrained in your head and you’ll tend to repeat mistakes.

2. After a layoff I don’t expect to be at my best, so normally I reduce my bets till I have an outing or two. I have had success coming off a layoff but still make mistakes betting. I figure if I’m off I’ll save money or still make a profit and there’s always another day coming. Even if your handicapping is OK rushing bets or out of sink betting doesn’t help the bottom line.

3. It’s said that to master or become proficient in an occupation or discipline it takes at least 10,000 hours. I don’t know if that’s exactly true or not but I do know Tim (LT1) and I have many years and hours at this and you’re not going to become us without some serious effort. Thankfully the RDSS program of today can reduce that time tremendously and drastically get you to the finish line of proficiency. However, too many are into instant gratification and won’t spend the time or due the work that it takes to get there. One tip to shorted this time is to take your time to pick contenders, pacelines and do a race which is the springboard for everything else about Sartin. Your better off taking an hour or even 1 ½ hours and properly do a race than to just let the program pick lines and bet the top 2 horses, plus being in a hurry and rushing and being on automatic. When you’re on automatic and accept it blindly your brain will not retain anything and applying your time will ingrain a pattern into your brain that will not only make things faster but also more proficient as time goes by. This is how our brain functions. This and post mortems will really up your game and speed of process will come later. All a very value apprenticeship and if a $2.00 bettor during this period it’s the cheapest Sartin Doctorate you’ll ever get.

4. Once done your handicapping, design a bet to capitalize on the situation and your analysis. If your top choice is a favorite, ask yourself; “How can I make money out of this race.” It doesn’t pay to take a short price on the best horse when you can collect some very good paying DD or EX’s. In this situation I always look at the race before and after with this low paying best horse for a possible good paying DD. Daily Doubles are easier to win than Exacta’s because winners are easier to pick then in an EX. Sometimes any horse can get the place position to include the worst horse in the field and non-contenders, probably in the range of 45%.
Look at the payoff matrix and avoid low paying DD and Ex. Combination. This saves money that can better deployed to reap rewards.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Good points and advice Mitch. Hopefully it doesn't fall on deaf ears.
Tim

[cdax]

Epic thread going on here!

Definitely need to "cut and paste" to save the insights.

Sometimes I can go off the rails a bit and need to get back on track. Thank you Mitch for taking the time to post.

Also thanks to Tim and all the other contributors' efforts.

Chris:jump:

[Mitch44]

Your welcome Chris and hope you slay them.

Mitch44