Woodbine 05/31 races

[Bill Lyster]

A good card to practice on.
54443

This was race 2; race one only had 4 runner.
54444


For this exercise I will use best of last three races and explain if I did not do that. There are very few exceptions. Here is the winner. The card is relatively early in the Woodbine meet so many horses took the winter off, but best of last three works just fine.

Here are the horses before evaluations and demotions from the L/P screen:

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Before I get too far into the race I make sure that the running style is correct. An early horse is any horse that has lost ground at all calls or has never passed another horse. Even the slightest gain of either should classify the horse as EP. I look at all the horses races to see if can press even a little or if the race pace makes it an E type.


Many times, but not always, you can eliminate a horse that gets no Rx3 points. You can always do it from the Segments screen as well. For my handicapping I eliminate down to 5 horses so in this race I need to demote two horses.

The 5 is the first to go. then I go to Segments and sort in the RS column from early to late for a first look.

54446

Each RS will be sorted by highest speed bias points. the higher the point total the closer the horse could/should run to the pace of race.

Ideally, you want to see the contenders as the best horses who either lead without much loss to the finish or who gain from 1F/SC/FIN.

The higher the number of speed points means that the horse should be closer to the lead than a horse with fewer points. So for this reason only slight losses of ground should be allowed. As the number of points in each RS classification decreases you want to see a greater number of lengths gained or lesser number of lengths lost.

Sustained horses NEED to, at best, maintain position to SC and then MUST gain to the finish and then not have the worst FIN values as shown on the segments chart (left side of screen)


So the 2 and the 7 are candidates to demote. The 2 gains to SC, but loses ground to the finish; the 7 had the most speed points, lost ground to SC and does not do enough to the finish.

The Sustained horse gains in both calls and could be a place or show horse no matter what the pace, especially if the early horses get in a dual. I kept the 2 because it had both PL and BPP top five ranks.

The L/P screen shows the winner top 2 Rx3 and the place horse as the best rx3.

54442

Sometimes in the decision making process it helps to sort the Segments screen by either the 1F info or the SC info (whoever has the SC 0/0 value. With this info in mind you can look at the velocity screen and see 3F values to help decide whether to keep or demote a horse.

Not a big winner, but a winner.

[stormbringer]

Thank you Bill for this example race.

[kahunab]

Thanks Bill! Good insights!

[Lt1]

Hey Bill what about an early that goes WTW or is less then a length off the lead at the 1st call and wins is it not an early horse?
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Hey Bill what about an early that goes WTW or is less then a length off the lead at the 1st call and wins is it not an early horse?
Tim

Sure Tim, when I wrote that it was from my discussions with FTL and his point was that any horse who PPs showed it never gained or passed another horse was some kind of early. So it could be an F, an E a E/p or even a P as far as ESP goes, but we should expect it not to keep up with the pace of race if it was faster than what you predicted in todays race.

[Bill Lyster]

Race 3 a six horse field

Notice that all the horses came from much shorter distances than the 4 and that the pace of race was much slower which is almost always the case with marathons vs mid distance routes.
54447

When in form or when its competitive the horse will run speed ratings somewhere in the mid to high 70s. Its had one other long layoff so if you thought it would repeat that you could use line 8. I used line 2 and if the horse is good enough it will be in the mix.

When I leave the 12 f line in you can see how far back the horse is and even as a presser it loses ground from SC to FIN.

54448


54449

But I want to see how it would perform at a distance closer to today.
54450

My goal is to get down to 5 horses so we look at who fades the most. The 3 could wire the field, the 6 gained to SC and lost a little to finish; our 4 now gains to SC and loses a little to FIN; the 5 gains to SC and loses the most to FIN and the 1 a S horse gains consistently but probably not enough to win, but is only one of two horses that gains throughout the race.

None of the horses %med is out of whack. Most turf routes are won with a %Med in the very low 67 usually 66 or even a little less.

54451

Guess what the two who gained throughout the race came 1st and 3rd, the old split-zacta. The winner was 3rd Rx3 and one of the new pace horses.

If you look at the POR section of the P/L screen you see that even though the speed rating was one of the higher ones for this horse its pace of race in most categories was a 5.

[Lt1]

Thanks for the response that explains it.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

First Look at the LP screen, notice the 3 and 6 have no Rx3 points and the two FTS horses have no PL rank - all good.

54459

Look at Segments sorted by running style. Of the 4 pressers the 6 cannot compete early losing 4 lengths and it has the highest FIN and VDC% so demote it.

Looking at the S horses the 3 closes the worst and also has the worst FIN and VDC % of that group. Demote it.

54460

Verifying the low ranking of the 3 and 6, see the only poly race for the 6 is not near the rest of the group whose SRs are mid 70s. The best the 3 can show is low 70s.

54461

Of the final five the 11 shows signs of weakening between F1 and SC and the three who do not finish 1-2-3

54462


The winner and place horse are Rx3 1 and 2, both are NP horses.
54463

The winner had the largest NP graph with a 5 pt advantage over the nearest horse. In races 2-3-4 so far the horse with the largest graph number has finished on the board. Thanks to Dick Werpy for that info. On this card with the exception of race 1 which I passed because of 4 horses and race 11, in 9 out of the ten races the horse with the largest graph value was on the board. In my limited research as urged by Dick, this single factor points to a horse that could be wheeled for trifectas somewhere between 60 and 70 % of the time.

[Bill Lyster]

Again we start with two horses with no Rx3 pts, the 4 and 9. We can also note that the first three finishers came from horses with the 3 highest speed ratings, that all three top finishers were top 4 Rx3 and the win and show horses were NP horses.

54464

Segments sorted by running style: The 5 is the only early horse but cannot lead because the 8 is 0-0-0 and is a presser, which means it does NOT have to lead but will cause pace pressure. Demote the 5. The 5 also loses ground to the finish is tied as the worst value in FIN and is the 2nd worst VDC%.


54465

The 8 horse, an early presser or presser. Got to keep because it can lead all the way, maybe. Also it had the highest graph number at 91. He is probably not a win contender, because of no info in the arrow section and very little to recommend it in the Supplement and POR sections, but that does not mean it cannot hit the board, which it did.

54466

So now we have eliminated the 4-5-9 and our group looks like this:

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Nice 1$ exacta and reasonable trifecta for $1 at almost $96.

In case you are wondering, I self taught myself how to do this by looking at races with the results and began to spot information that repeatedly came up. Hundreds and hundreds of races over the last year while working with Ted and Dick

[Bill Lyster]

The 8 was a long sprinter going in a route. I have noticed that the most likely sprinters to do well in routes have good PL and BPP numbers as shown here.

If look at the %med for the 8 it is 69.4 whereas the other horses are mid to high 67s. While that is not an automatic toss out, it really depends on the relationship between this horse and the others in the race. You can learn this by observation or keeping track profiles like LT1 (Tim)

54468

[Bill Lyster]

At first look, there is a lot of color on the LP screen. Nice exacta and trifecta if you can get it. The winner is top 2 Rx 3

One particular note is that three of the horses have positive EPR values - the 7, 3 and 5. It is not a surprise to see that none of them hit the board.

54469

Here is the velocity screen sorted by running style.

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The 3-5-7 have %Med at or over 67.9 and should be considered for demotion. Look at the 4 and 2 relative to the 3 and 7. the F2 and F3 values plus the closeness of the SC values reinforce the demotions of these three.

54471
Still a lot of color in the screen shot so lets see what we can eliminate using the Segments screen sorted by running style.

54472
This race has two oddities in my view, first the poly race from Wyoming and the 7.5 turf race by the 1. There are two horses that are farthest from the lead at SC, the 1 and the 8. that being the case the horse that gains the least is the 1. On the other hand the 6 is ranked in three of the four factors and is ranked 5th in the TS category, so you could keep the 6 and win a bundle. I would demote either the 1 or 8 leaving six horses. Of the contenders the one with the best NP graph value is the 2. Key him with the other five in the exacta $46 or wheel him in the trifecta 1-5-5 for $30 and smile alot with a $400+ return! Sometimes you just cannot easily separate the non win types!

[dadams6357]

Thanks Bill
Appreciate it.
Don

[Bill Lyster]

This is the LP screen after demoting horses with no Rx3 pts and after screening the remaining field by sort the Segments screen by running style. There were only P and S horses in this race. the worst P was the 8 and the worst S was the 4, so we are down to 6 horses.

Recall that I am using best of last three lines in this analysis, but as in any race scenario you should look at the lines and make a judgment on the robo line chosen. So I am going to look at the 2-3-6-9 and see if the lines reasonably reflect what the horses could expected to do today.

54491

First up is the 2. The line chosen is the 1, its best SR so far whereas as a 2yo its best was a 71. On the plus side the trainer thought he might have a good horse and entered in 3 stakes races after a first out win.

I think if the horse is good it is reasonable to expect better races once the horse matures from 2 to 3. I would probably leave line selection for this horse as is.


54492

The 3 was not raced at 2 and broke its maiden in its 6th start, 226 days ago with an 85 SR rating. All its previous races had a best of 72. Do we really think that a come backer could match its best ever SR by 13 in its first time out this year?

Doubtful or iffy. Using the SR 72 would not make this a contender.

54493

The 6 has one race this year and ran to its other sprint SRs but its one route was an 82 vs its previous 77 and it is not unusual to see outings after the first after layoff to improve, so I would accept the 82 SR as doable. It also has a workout rating of 99% AFTER its last race. Keep this one.

54494

The 9 is a one time winner from 17 starts; its line tied for its best ever on poly and its workouts are average at best in preparation after a 174 day layoff.

54495

If you demote either the 3 or 9 you get good payoffs. I will show the Segments screens from which I made preliminary demotions in the next post.

[Bill Lyster]

Field after demotion of horses with 0 Rx3 points
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The 8 is the worst of the Pressers and the 4 is the worst of the Sustained horses.
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The Segments screen sorted prior to final evaluations and demotions
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The Final Segments screen after review and further demotions
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The LP screen after demotions. The winner was always the #1 Rx3 horse, one of the NP horses and the horse with best NP graph.

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[Bill Lyster]

No tricks here, just the best read outs: The LP screen and then the LP with two demoted for not having Rx3 points;

54501


54502

The Segments screen for the 8 remaining horses sorted by running style. But notice that the two demoted for 0 Rx pts have the highest FIN and VDC% numbers.

54503

I deleted the 1 and 3 as worst two pressers with highest VDC %. This leaves 6 horses. The 2 who is 5.9 back at SC, farther back than all the Pressers and a FIN number that is 6th in the field can be demoted. The 2 has the lowest SR of these horses, is not top 5 TE, not top 5 CSR, is missing several top 5 rankings in the arrow and supplemental data. When you demote the horse, great payoffs LOOM! $445 exacta and $2100+ trifecta!!!


54504

[Bill Lyster]

LP screen with all contenders but three have 12F races chosen for them. At first glance you see they were top 2 Rx 3, but the winner is at the bottom. Lets look at each of the 12F horses for a line more in line with the distances of the other horses.

54505

The 3 is a dedicated front runner but only has one poly line and its closer to todays date than the 9F turf races.

54506

The 7 has run 3 marathons in a row, has no poly races but four past races on turf with mid to high 85 SRs. I chose line 5, not its best but competitive

54507

The 8 is second off a 175 day layoff; raced in G2 last out; has a 95% work after last work. The 82 SR is good enough after a layoff and with no other long layoffs the one that should be used.

54508

The revised contenders with lines at or about todays distance. Segments screen sorted by running style.
54509

Demote the presser, 2, and the 6, relatively high %med, but next in line has superior F2 and F3. Demote the 8, farthest back of the S horses at SC; tied for last FIN and worst VDC%.

The one is shown as a Presser from its best ever line, when he actually ran sustained. If you use one or more of his presser lines he loses over 7 points in TPR value and its his comeback race after a 119 day layoff and no previous layoffs to look into. So the apparent loss of ground by the 3 is not likely to develop. If you demote the 1 the 3 gains betwee F1 and SC. Another good round of prices. $55 exacta and $119 trifecta. The 7 had the highest graph value on NP and either the 7 or 3 would have been a suitable arrow horse for wheel purposes.

[Bill Lyster]

After demoting the 1, the real early, 3, looks better.

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