Interesting Survey

[Lt1]

During one of our Thursday night meetings Ted pointed out a new feature where good lines were indicated by either a + or a +within a box. I decided to do one of my follow up surveys to see how this new feature would fair based on my line selections I used for my capping. I also included races where I picked lines where the horse finished in the money or beat 1//2 the field while finishing within the required beaten lengths for the distance. I did a 200 race survey. The tracks involved were PARX.TDN,DEL,FL & MTH. Here are the results
Races 200 Winners line +within bo 109 +Line 33 In Money Fin/beat 1/2 field 30. As you can see 172 of the 200 winners 86% of all winners fell into 1 of 4 groups. Only 28[14% did not]. Again please remember I was not limited to the last 3 lines as called for by the Leverage approach. Pretty impressive.
Tim

[Jake]

During one of our Thursday night meetings Ted pointed out a new feature where good lines were indicated by either a + or a +within a box. I decided to do one of my follow up surveys to see how this new feature would fair based on my line selections I used for my capping. I also included races where I picked lines where the horse finished in the money or beat 1//2 the field while finishing within the required beaten lengths for the distance. I did a 200 race survey. The tracks involved were PARX.TDN,DEL,FL & MTH. Here are the results
Races 200 Winners line +within bo 109 +Line 33 In Money Fin/beat 1/2 field 30. As you can see 172 of the 200 winners 86% of all winners fell into 1 of 4 groups. Only 28[14% did not]. Again please remember I was not limited to the last 3 lines as called for by the Leverage approach. Pretty impressive.
Tim

Tim,

Nice research and results. Considering your tracks used, those are very nice overall results using essentially a general contender filter.
May I ask how far back you went to look at pace lines, since you weren't limiting to only the last 3 lines?

Great idea on both Ted and yours part! I thank you for sharing your survey.

Jake

[Lt1]

Hi Jake and thanks. For about 85% of the horses I was within the last 3 lines and for most of the others no further then line 5. However there were occasions when I went back as far as line 10[ usually in turf races where the horses' recent races were on dirt] although I went back on dirt horses when a lot of off tracks were in between fast trk lines but always with what I deemed a valid excuse such as a lifetime best race for horses 4 &up. Some of those races are most likely in the races of interest section. Anyway other folks will most likely get different results depending on tracks used and their comfort with going back past line 3 although I doubt that there would be must change in the bad line figure.
Tim

[Jake]

Hi Jake and thanks. For about 85% of the horses I was within the last 3 lines and for most of the others no further then line 5. However there were occasions when I went back as far as line 10[ usually in turf races where the horses' recent races were on dirt] although I went back on dirt horses when a lot of off tracks were in between fast trk lines but always with what I deemed a valid excuse such as a lifetime best race for horses 4 &up. Some of those races are most likely in the races of interest section. Anyway other folks will most likely get different results depending on tracks used and their comfort with going back past line 3 although I doubt that there would be must change in the bad line figure.
Tim

This is very useful for everyone to take at least a glance at, and determine if it might improve their handicapping process. Your followup tracking of number of races back is great as a form indicator as well. I agree turf can be hard to nail down for many reasons, time of year and layoff length being two additional ones. Nice, thank you again.

[Lt1]

You are welcome Jake. I should also mention that although for the most part I stayed within the last 3 lines the line I used was not always the one the program picked. Also remember the Doc always cautioned against using a bad line for a horse but when you deal with the tracks I play that is not always possible.
Tim

[darmar]

Tim great work on this survey, as always, and thanks for sharing it with us.
Any time one can gain valuable insight on handicapping it's great to be able to use it and your surveys are always on the mark.
Darryl

[Lt1]

Thanks Darryl. It is our duty to try and help each of us to win on a consistent basis.
Tim