Does Leverage Pace work day to day?

[kahunab]

Today I handicapped 28 races and theoretically cashed a trifecta ticket in 19 of the 28. I did not bet every race I handicapped. I have included my worksheet but first I want to give you a key to what is included. First above the line (2) are the Leverage Pace (Arrow) horses. The first one listed (1) is my key horse. Below the line (3) are the companion horses. The results (4) are listed top to bottom. If a number is circled that means it won, if it is boxed that means it placed, if it is triangled that means it is the show horse.
54936
Here is my worksheet for the day. There are many of the races we should not bet because the probability of “winning the race and not making money is high.” So our quest becomes how do we identify winning betting opportunities?
The fields were of good size and many prices were ok. Not too many monster hits. I made some mistakes and maybe with your handicapping you could do better! So what do you think? What do you see that might be helpful?
54935

[Lt1]

Nice work Dick.
Tim

[The Pook]

Dick…if you had boxed your selections in $1 triactors you would have bet $1680 and returned $1400 for a loss of 17%. If you had passed every race where your key was the off time favourite you would have bet $1020 and returned $1110 for a profit of 9%. I didn’t work it out but I think if you had ignored races where your key was one of the top two or three favourites you might have done even better.

Good handicapping overall.

Pook

[Jake]

I can't follow your wagering. The first horse is your key horse. So, on your write-up, doesn't it have to have either a circle or a box to indicate that your key horse either won or place? Otherwise, isn't your exacta key a loss here? What would your actual bet on the DEL#3 race look like written out? Thanks,
Dick.

[dadams6357]

Dick what was your ROI(return on investment)...
The one race has a T? Is that turf? If so you hit a 100 percent on turf...of course it was only one race.
I myself am not sure how to guess at what would be a profitable race in regards to betting a trifecta.
Can one look at the probable exacta payouts and expect that will predict what a trifecta is going to pay? I myself would say no...
Is that 17 wins out of 28? It would seem that if your ROI is high enough then that would dictate whether one is on the right path or not.
The only advice I could offer would be that of a student telling the teacher how to handicap.
Great job on handicapping that many races in a day...my approach is to handicap a race between the races. That gets my adrenalin a pumping knowing I have only so many minutes left before I bet.
Thanks for the post.
Don

[Jake]

I can't follow your wagering. The first horse is your key horse. So, on your write-up, doesn't it have to have either a circle or a box to indicate that your key horse either won or place? Otherwise, isn't your exacta key a loss here? What would your actual bet on the DEL#3 race look like written out? Thanks,
Dick.

So, you are only playing trifecta's these days, no exacta keys? Dadams6357
question on determining wager value here is a good one. Are you using exacta probables
to determine where to go with your bet, or are all your wagering primarily trifectas these days with Leverage Pace?

Thanks for your post, a lot of effort on your part.

Jake

[Jake]

So, you are only playing trifecta's these days, no exacta keys? Dadams6357
question on determining wager value here is a good one. Are you using exacta probables
to determine where to go with your bet, or are all your wagering primarily trifectas these days with Leverage Pace?

Thanks for your post, a lot of effort on your part.

Jake

Let me ask this in a different way, Kahunab? I understand your ABC slotting, but not your W-L numbers. Are you betting 3 different trifectas key bets every race?

I confused because your Leverage Pace Overview indicated this betting strategy:

"3. A Key Box Exacta is K boxed with 3 or 4 Companion horses in the forms of K with1,2,3,4 AND 1,2,3,4 with K."

"4. We will design our two Trifecta tickets that look this way. K with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4 AND 1,2,3,4 with K with 1,2,3,4"

What am I missing here? Exacta key betting would have to be more profitable, I would think, if that the case of 3 key trifecta bets.

Thanks,

Jake

[The Pook]

Further to the above if you had passed every race where your key was in the top three morning line you would have made 4 bets. Betting the same $1680 would allow $7 triactor boxes or $420 each. You would have hit 3 of them for a return of $2861. A profit of $1181 or 70% ROI.

So with a no brainer approach of avoiding races where your key is in general agreement with the ML maker and thus the public, you would have a chance.

Executing that is another matter with all the work done to sit mostly idle.

Pook

[dadams6357]

Thanks for the feedback Pook.
Appreciate it.
Don

[kahunab]

Good Morning, Gentlemen,
I really appreciate all your responses and feedback. I believe this is how we help each other learn. I will try to compose a response that will try to answer all of the questions you have posed. It may take me a bit to put it all together, but I will be back with a more complete answer. Hopefully, today. It depends on what the Boss has in store for me.

Dick

[kahunab]

Gentlemen, I hope that you don’t evaluate the effectiveness of Leverage Pace based on my decision making. I made some bad choices in my work that should not reflect on the program. Please look at what the program gives us. As a start look at the horses above the line note that they are all blue arrow or Leverage Pace horses. Win or Place or both appear in 27 of 28 races. That is a pretty solid start for finding a horse to Key or a bet to WP. Jake asked what my actual bet would look like for DEL 3. It looked like this $1 Exacta Key Box 7/9,1,2,5 and Tri Key Box 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 which plays out like this: 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/7/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9/7 or simply stated this bet wins if the 7 hits the board with any 2 of the 4 companions. I picked the wrong key for the Exacta and lost the Exacta but won the Tri which paid $47.
I sat on my hands for a good part of the day. Not sure if it was my mental attitude of low confidence or what? I bet 6 of the races and cashed a ticket in 5. One of my tickets lost money. I bet $18 and collected $7. One of the races which I did not bet, paid $3.05 for the $.50 tri. I tell you all that because my current quest is to find solid guidelines for placing the bet. Ideas like my key having to be over 5/2 with at least 2 longer shots in the 4 companion horses or maybe just having three longer odds companion horses is enough. My usual bet is a Key horse in a key box both in the trifecta and exacta. If I have a large enough field, say 7 or more horses, I will usually Key one horse with 4 others. That means an $8 exacta key box and $18 trifecta key box. Total investment of $26.
So we start with the blue arrow horses in our quest to find the Key. Let’s take a look at a race I handicapped but did not bet but should have. By the way I changed my Key right before the race for a couple of reasons I will point out. My worksheet shows my earlier work and at race time I changed my pick. The race is DEL5, a turf race.
First the data. This is the data for all the Turf routes in our database of 4178 races with 564. We could look at DEL specifically but I don’t have that many races to look at. We can see that the strongest predictors are the RX ratings. They all get 92 percent of the winners in their top 5. RX1 seems a bit stronger in the top 3 and 4 so we will use RX1.
54937

We see a 14 horse field, later cut down to 7.

54938

We now look at our Leverage Pace screen. Our Key horse presents as #2 in TE, #1 in VDC, #1 Late from New Pace and #1LPR in a pressured late race. (18 speed points). I went back and forth between the 4 and the 10. The 4 had a better 4 score but his VDC was not as good and he was #3 LPR. His leverage scores were not as good.

54939

The 4 looks a little better than the 10 here. The 7, the ML Favorite, does not look good at all in either screen but his past performances are outstanding. A classic companion horse.

54940

Finally, here is the convincer for me upon final look. The 10 gains ground every fraction and is the best in the last two with 0.0 VDC. The final decider.
54942

I think the struggle to pick between the 4 and the 10 was why I held back and did not bet. I wish I had. My bet would have been $1 Exacta key box 10/4,7,8,12 and $.50 Tri Key Box 10/4,7,8,12 which as we noted in race 3 will pay out if the 10 hits the board with any 2 of the other 4.

I hope this answers most of your questions. Play the data. Our data is strong.

[Jake]

"Jake asked what my actual bet would look like for DEL 3. It looked like this $1 Exacta Key Box 7/9,1,2,5 and Tri Key Box 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 which plays out like this: 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/7/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9/7 or simply stated this bet wins if the 7 hits the board with any 2 of the 4 companions. I picked the wrong key for the Exacta and lost the Exacta but won the Tri which paid $47".

So, are you recommending betting 3 trifecta keys instead of 2 trifecta keys, if I read this above correctly? And, adding a single exacta key wager, too. Is that your current approach? Thanks.

Jake

[kahunab]

"Jake asked what my actual bet would look like for DEL 3. It looked like this $1 Exacta Key Box 7/9,1,2,5 and Tri Key Box 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 which plays out like this: 7/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/7/1,2,5,9 or 1,2,5,9/1,2,5,9/7 or simply stated this bet wins if the 7 hits the board with any 2 of the 4 companions. I picked the wrong key for the Exacta and lost the Exacta but won the Tri which paid $47".

So, are you recommending betting 3 trifecta keys instead of 2 trifecta keys, if I read this above correctly? And, adding a single exacta key wager, too. Is that your current approach? Thanks.

Jake

Yes

Dick

[dadams6357]

Dick

Statistically you have a large data collection of 564 races to make this statistically significant (maybe).
Problem is, the horses do not know it. I have found when using the models separating by Track and distance (like difference between 5-5.5-6-6.5 etc) can have a big impact on the model. Also the larger the data base does not necessarily improve the model. Brohammer and the Wizard (Tim) only use the last few races. I have found that as little as 4 races provided they are the last 4 may do much better.
In the book that Ted recommended and was used in the development of the system. The author also alluded to the fact that one does not necessarily need a large set of numbers (I understand with your mathematics background ,what your doing makes sense. I hear yah, loud and clear).
That is all I gotta say in regards to the model.
I will try to have more input into the race. But i got to go hang out with the old folks and hear the same story over and over, about old glory days.

Don

[kahunab]

Dick

I will try to have more input into the race. But i got to go hang out with the old folks and hear the same story over and over, about old glory days.

Don

Don,
Isn't visiting the Good Ol Glory Days great fun? Some things we just have to endure.

Dick

[dadams6357]

Dick
Lol. You got that right.

Don