New Pace Query

[DELMARGRANT]

Hi, in new pace I find that a lot of the time it is correct in picking early or late pace. But I find that several times this is off. It will say early and a late horse wins or it states late and a horse goes wire to wire. Any of you that use new pace can you share your thoughts as to when it can be trusted or how do I handicap using new pace? The other issue is Leverage Pace or BLBL will have 2 or three horses listed with blue arrows on the top and then if new pace suggesting the pace is late the 2 or three horses drop to the bottom. Do you pass the race at this point or trust that the 2 or 3 late may get it done? Thanks

[AwesomeAgain]

I love New Pace. Once you have a firm understanding what the numbers are telling you it becomes rather simple. However, it takes time to learn and grasp it. I posted under general discussion what New Pace landed on at Laurel Park on Thanksgiving day. From my experience, the pressured low tells you the most. Some may disagree with me and that is fine. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. These ranges work for me. So this is a start and hope it helps. We can delve into more down the road.

0 – 60 → Soft / No Pressure

61 – 72 → Honest

73 – 85 → Hot

86+ → Meltdown

[DELMARGRANT]

Thank You.

[Bill Lyster]

Dick Werpy planted this seed about 10 days ago so I ran with it.

I have a 269 race sample of races from PRX, MVR, FG, GP, TAM, SA and DMR, usually running more than one or more days consecutively.

It is important to state that this study only relates to the New Pace screen which can show different graphs, and depending on how you sort the horses, the order in which each horse appears on the sort.

This study is based on the Adjusted Speed Rating option, NOT the Trackmaster Rating option found on the New Pace screen.

When you access the NEW PACE screen, choose the HIGH option, NOT the LOW option. I got much better results using the HIGH option.

Record the top 4 horses in the order shown on this screen and then compare it to the race results. In 269 races the exacta was won by the first three horses on this screen almost 30% of the time. The exacta was won by the first four horses on this screen 49.8% of the time!! The top five horses won the exacta 62.8% of the time.

If you choose the first four option, the box exacta costs $12 but many of the races will not return $12 so you need to build an exacta return matrix to see which combinations will break even or better. And along this train of thought you should determine your minimum acceptable return if you bet combinations that will return more than the minimum bet.

I suppose you could use this idea for multiple race horizontal wagers like pick 3 -4-5, etc. but again, bet cost vs return needs to be studied.

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

These attachments go with the previous post.

55335

55336

[dadams6357]

Thanks Gentlemen.
For your individual analysis of the New Pace Screen.
It definitely gives me a better understanding of how it works.
And ways that one might manipulate it.
This clears up a lot of the frustration I have experienced using
the New Pace screen.
Don
Always learn something new everyday..

[dadams6357]

AwesomeAgain
When you speak of ranges. Are you taking the low range of the top horse on the screen
and the low range of the bottom horse? Or just the range of top horse?
Food for thought or no thought. It maybe that for each track one would have different ranges.

Don

[AwesomeAgain]

I am referring to the pressured low side. (Blue number on the left) The pressured low tells you everything you need to know. If the pressured low is 60 or below there is hardly any early pressure. E and EP types can wire the field. But also because there is hardly any pressure look for the ones who roll in the 3rd fraction. What makes new pace special is that it is giving you a projection of how today's race should run. If you have any other questions hit me up!

[AwesomeAgain]

Don, Since Bill posted a Newpace screenshot, I will walk you through it. The unpressured high is 81 (red) and the pressured low is 53 (Blue). Newpace is telling me that it's a soft pace. In NewPace, a soft pace means the front end is NOT being seriously challenged. No real pressure. No sustained fight early. The leaders get comfortable instead of punished. Horses with tactical speed who can sit 1-2 without stress. This is permission not punishment. Just because the pace is soft does not always mean free wire job. The middle move is where the bill comes due. (F2) The Tell is when you see an Early horse with a good F1 and Weak F2. Simply Put any soft pace that tightens in F2 is a trap. This where Cheap speed will begin to fold. And your pace vector should verify this.

[dadams6357]

AwesomeAgain

Gotcha...thanks for taking the time
to explain it to me.
Appreciate it.

Thanks Again
Don

[Bill Lyster]

55336[/QUOTE]

So far the study shows the power of CSR rankings.
The top 3 CSR horses won 63.3% of the races;
The top 4 CSR horses won 77.3% of the races; and
The top 5 CSR horses won 84.9% of the races.

In addition,
The top 3 horses shown on the New Pace HIGH graph when boxed won 29.4% of the exactas;
The top 4 horses shown on the New Pace HIGH graph when boxed won 49.8% of the exactas, and
The top 5 horses shown on the New Pace HIGH graph when boxed won 62.8% of the exactas!!

In the example above the top 2 horses on the graph, the 1 and 3, finished 1-2 and the top 4 CSR horses, 4-5-3-1, won the trifecta and superfecta.

All of this data was developed from only the New Pace information in RDSS. I used adjusted speed ratings values in this study. Remember NP theoretically tells us with approximately 90% certainty, the range of values for each horse from its low and high adjusted speed ratings, based on the number of races in the past performances. This means that no one pace line is used, yet high level results can be obtained by paying attention to and correctly interpreting the information.

Hope you all do well with this info. Ask any questions and I will try to answer them.

Bill

[dadams6357]

Thanks for the stats Bill.
Much appreciated.
Don

[cmckeever]

I just thought I would post a reply for the 1/22/26 Parx races New Pace numbers:

Race 1: NP nos. 8,1,6,2,5,3,7
Result: 1,2,3,8,6,5,7
$2 Exacta $48.45

Race 2: NP nos. 2,3,1,5,4,7
Result 1,4,3,2,7,5
$2 Exacta $76.80

Race 3: NP nos. 3,2,4,1,5,4,7
Results: 1,3,4,2,6,5
$2 Exacta $30.60

Race 4: NP nos. 7,4,1,5,6
Results: 7,5,4,6,1
$2 Exacta 17.40

Race 5: NP nos. 1,3,6,7
Results: 3,1,6,7
$2 Exacta $8.80

Race 6 NP 4,6,3,1,2,7,8
Results: 6,1,7,3,4,2,8
$2 Exacta $66.60

Race 7: NP nos. 1,6,3,2,4,8,7,5
Results: 5,6,7,28,3,1,4
$2 Exacta $215.40
That #5 horse had 3 straight wins plus a couple earlier, I don't know why it was ranked so low.

Race 8: Had two horses with no data that came in 1 and 2.

Race 9: NP nos. 5,2,3,1,6,4,7
Results: 2,3,4,5,1,7,6
$2 Exacta $25.00

Race 10: NP nos. 4,9,7,5,3,8,2,1
Results: 3,7,2,85,9,4,1
$2 Exacta $17.20

Looks like you would make some money here.

Good Luck in the future.

Cedric

[DELMARGRANT]

Thank you great information.

[shoeless]

Thanks Bill and Awesome

Jeff