Night Of The Pace And Cap Dead

[shoeless]

The title is a tribute to George Romero who gave us those great dead movies.This topic is aimed at you ZOMBIES out there who just read and dont contribute.Let's face it other then Richie's Sat race at FG things here are pretty dead.The question is How do you go about picking your contenders?

I use the daily racing form and the main thing Im looking for is does this horse belong in this race.Im doing this by class conditions and distance,I also will use the match up but very little of it.I dont like going beyond 45 days because Im dealing mostly with cheap claimers and I dont feel they can keep their condition for long.I know this isnt the Doc's way of doing things but this is what I feel most comfortable with.

NOW COME ON ZOMBIES AND LETS HEAR FROM YOU.I would also like to hear from the regulars as well.Jeff

[admin]

well ....? That is a differenet way to get a reply
I Know things have been slow here outside of Richies
contest it has been very slow
I apologize I have been very busy at work
When I have been able to find some time lately my time here
has been dealing with creeps posting porn and spam
on top of all this my computer is down and I have been having to
either use computers at work in the Early AM or go to the public
library and use a computer there
I have been selfish. I have been mostly reading followups
There have been post that I have made that have gone ignored
I figured it was me. So I did'nt post anything.
I am using the methodology 100% as Doc writes in the follow up
and am taking advise from Mr Bradshaw from his excellent book THE MATCH UP 2 and also from notes I made when I visited him
My contender selection method is based on using a good line
almost always that has a high speed rating that is one of the horses
last three lines. I use APV and Class ratings to detirmin how much to
help a horse. I know there are flows with a rating that uses earning
but these figures work very well for me as a aid in pace line selection
I try to limit my contenders to 4 or 5. If its a big field and I enter
over 5 contenders I eliminate off the Total Energy/ Primary line score
readouts keeping the best 5 of each readout

GS
Bill

[gl45]

Well, Jeff you are using the first principle in handicapping, "Why this horse is in this race today". Two possibilities; is he in for conditioning or take a share of the purse?
Who enter the horse in the race? The trainer; he is the only one that knows how the horse will perform today. We look at the horse's pp, and we conclude, based on how we translate the infos, he will be a contender or not. Some people use fractional times, pace calls, speed ratings, workouts, class rises or drops, form, and some combinations of the above.
What people tend to forget that all the above infos are relate in some ways to each other.
Just because the horse run last 2 race in fast time, or was positioned well during the race pace, or has been dropped in class today, or has show good speed rating last out etc.... doesn't mean that he will win today.
If you can get the pps for last night 2nd. race at Penn, you see what I mean. The race was a gimme, the winner paid $17, the place paid $7, the fav came 3th.
Why Qpublic send the horses at those odds? Because they couldn't accurately translate the infos in the horses pps.
The horse's pp are a puzzle, we must put the pieces together in order to have a complete picture on how the horse will perform today, qouted from my handicapping mentor.
Your methods to pick contenders is not wrong, you might need some other variables to make it works. Use what make you confortable, be confident in your selection, and never second guess yourself.
Regards,

lbj

[shoeless]

Bill,No need to apoligize,Im just trying to get some of the deadwood to reply.The reason I put this here was so that Tompkins could reply if he wishes to do so.Enen though we dont agree on most things and have had run ins with one another at least he posts stuff that he feels is valuable to the site.


LBJ,Thanks for your valuable insight. Jeff

[chris]

Point well taken! We all have retraints on our time - imagined or real -and I'm no different in that respect. So a concious and deliberate effort to post is required. In that spirit this is my small contribution. With the exception of the "Contest" race I usually handicap the races just before they go off; the odds board is as important to me as the program tiers. It's a prime corollary. First run through I want a general picture of the race - just opening my mind to the possibilites. Next I go back and make a comment, positive if at all possible, about every horse. I make shorthand notations to speed the process along, e.g. ETI: eligible to improve, PM: pattern match, and my favorite OA: overachiever; a horse who achived a prior win at hugh odds. You get the idea. Then it's form cycle time, followed by workout analysis - a furlong a day since his/her last race is what I'm looking for, nothing more! This takes about five minutes, remember, I've been doing this for more than twenty five years; you get faster and better at it. What's important is that I follow the same process when I do a race. Less likely to miss something. Now I turn on the computer. However by now I have a good idea of who the contenders are, who the crowd (handicappers) will favor, and who they will MISS! I don't require absolute fits with e/l distributions, median % energy parameters - close is good enough. The odds will sort them out, all I need to do is get them in the top 4 or 5. Just looking for confirmation. I take this approach because my emphasis is on exotics. I've heard all the negatives about betting exotics. Have no idea what the experiences of those championing this poisition is, it's probably negative. But your free to develop your own experiences. Love to start a trifecta with a good idea of the horse, or horses, I'll be anchoring in the 2nd hole, or better yet, in the third spot - now I know I'm cooking. I guess that's where I've arrived. Trifecta's and Superfectas - the same can be said for the doubles, pick 3's, and pick 4's - allow me to participate in the most creative, and often vexing, demands of this endeavor while at the same time the most rewarding. Bet a little to win a lot.
Regards,
Chris

[emilio840]

Hi Jeff.

I use Aodds98. But, I do not bet on any horse that it picks. I use the program only because it is easy to read the DRF and I don't have to go to the store to buy it. I download it from bris.

I hcp just the way Jim does. I look for the Early horse and see if anyone could beat it. If it can not go wire to wire than I look for pressers or sustains to win.

If you have Jan 8th drf from tup you could see that it is almost impossible to lose the first 3 races. But you have to do everything that the hat told us to do when he was teaching us the MatchUp.

I would have had the 4th winner in a row if I played 2 horses a race because my second choice came in 1St and my first choice did not finish the race.


I think hcping is a STATE OF MIND. Because I don't have to much confidence with FG or Cd. Some how I got to figure out why can I use the MatchUp at those 2 tracks and win. I am doing well at all the other tracks.

I had problems at my home track wox in the middle of November. For 8 or 9 days I was having a hell of a time but in the last 2 weeks everything changed and I started wining again. In the last two weeks I had 3 winners that paid between $30 and $40 picking only one horse to win. And many others that paid between $5 and $20.

THE BIGGEST THING THAT I LEARNT ABOUT THE MATCHUP IS IN THE OLD MATCHUP MANUAL WHERE THE HAT SAID SOMETHING LIKE TRUST THE DRF FIGURES.

AND BY THAT I MEAN, SOMETIMES I use A LINE FROM WAY DOWN THE HORSE'S PP AND IT IS A REAL FAST LINE. SOMETHING LIKE 21.3 44.3 109.4 . THERE WERE TIMES WHEN I WOULD BE TO SCARED TO BET A HORSE LIKE THAT. THAN I STARTED THINKING ABOUT WHAT THE HAT SAID, TRUST YOUR FIGURES AND ITS ONLY A HORSE RACE.

NOW I AM DOING THAT.

Does anyone know if our programs going to work when the new operating system comes out. Randy is not sure if Aodds is going to work with it.

emilio

[shoeless]

I almost was going to delete this when I first wrote it but now Im glad I didnt.All of you bring up a lot of good points but most of all THANKS FOR SHARING,which I feel is the most important thing on this board.Jeff

[dugoutgold]

Hey Jeff, heres my 2 cents worth, as you know Im using aoddsgold98 these days only. Im getting more and more match up oriented here as Im study closely Jims new book. I have to watch myself though I get so involved in looking for running lines that I often over look critical factors mentioned in the posts above. Now I redo everyrace I lost and make a note of why I lost it and in most cases its simply that I overlooked something. First I look at the usable tandems screen to see what the tandem pace was and how the horses in it stood up to it. Then its to the pp screen to see if thier are any E types whos recent form is good and then see what splits they can run if unaposed. I look for eithor the Key horse as Jim calls it or the horse who owns the first fraction. I look again at the tandem splits if they are applicale to todays race and can compare to the E types. Usally I can guess the probable pace of todays race fairly well now. Then I take a look at the compostite screen to see how the race make shape up early or other than early. Then back to pp screen to try to pick lines that match as close as i can each horse to todays pace. ( i still look closey and try to guess the horses current conditon and all) Then all I use is simply 3 screens, first is the final screen which simply shows the compound ratings, line scores etc. Then (and this important no matter what program you are using) is to look at the velocity numbers to see how those compound ratings were derived. I find many top rated horses that wont cut it in todays race simply because thier verlocity numbers dont stack up to the compound ratings. Finally, I look at the plot graph screen and ask my self can an early win who owns the first fraction or will a presser (who might look strong in the second fraction) overtake him, if so will the early run so hard as to wear down the presser type in the final fraction and and SP type take over? It takes me a hell of lot of close scrutny here but my records show improvement.

[dugoutgold]

Hi Jeff.

I use Aodds98. But, I do not bet on any horse that it picks. I use the program only because it is easy to read the DRF and I don't have to go to the store to buy it. I download it from bris.

I hcp just the way Jim does. I look for the Early horse and see if anyone could beat it. If it can not go wire to wire than I look for pressers or sustains to win.

If you have Jan 8th drf from tup you could see that it is almost impossible to lose the first 3 races. But you have to do everything that the hat told us to do when he was teaching us the MatchUp.

I would have had the 4th winner in a row if I played 2 horses a race because my second choice came in 1St and my first choice did not finish the race.


I think hcping is a STATE OF MIND. Because I don't have to much confidence with FG or Cd. Some how I got to figure out why can I use the MatchUp at those 2 tracks and win. I am doing well at all the other tracks.

I had problems at my home track wox in the middle of November. For 8 or 9 days I was having a hell of a time but in the last 2 weeks everything changed and I started wining again. In the last two weeks I had 3 winners that paid between $30 and $40 picking only one horse to win. And many others that paid between $5 and $20.

THE BIGGEST THING THAT I LEARNT ABOUT THE MATCHUP IS IN THE OLD MATCHUP MANUAL WHERE THE HAT SAID SOMETHING LIKE TRUST THE DRF FIGURES.

AND BY THAT I MEAN, SOMETIMES I use A LINE FROM WAY DOWN THE HORSE'S PP AND IT IS A REAL FAST LINE. SOMETHING LIKE 21.3 44.3 109.4 . THERE WERE TIMES WHEN I WOULD BE TO SCARED TO BET A HORSE LIKE THAT. THAN I STARTED THINKING ABOUT WHAT THE HAT SAID, TRUST YOUR FIGURES AND ITS ONLY A HORSE RACE.

NOW I AM DOING THAT.

Does anyone know if our programs going to work when the new operating system comes out. Randy is not sure if Aodds is going to work with it.

emilio
Hey Emilio, when vista is released at the end of this month ( id never buy the first version, it has holes in it and the hackers will try to play havc meaning microslop will certainly be issueing alot of patches) aodds should run fine on it even thru its only 16 bit code, HOWEVER, I doubt it will run ANY DOS programs as the Dos shell is a thing of past from it for the most part or will be reduced from what Im getting here it only whats appliable to the core shell of the op system itself, so dont trash xp if your older sartin programs will run on it, hope this helps, Doug

[emilio840]

Thanks Doug.

emilio

[shoeless]

Doug,Thanks again for the tip, Im back to using Synergism 2 and wouldnt want to not be able to run it.Jeff

[partsnut]

when vista is released at the end of this month ( id never buy the first version, it has holes in it and the hackers will try to play havc meaning microslop will certainly be issueing alot of patches) aodds should run fine on it even thru its only 16 bit code, HOWEVER, I doubt it will run ANY DOS programs as the Dos shell is a thing of past from it for the most part or will be reduced from what Im getting here it only whats appliable to the core shell of the op system itself, so dont trash xp if your older sartin programs will run on it, hope this helps.

There's a few good partition programs available on the market.
Partition Magic Pro and Systems Commander will allow you to partition your disk drive and install numerous operating systems in a newly created disk partition. These new partition will not deteriorate your "C' drive or your main drive and allow you to run DOS programs in the newly created partition.. I believe installing "Windows 98 SE in a new partition should solve any of your older software problems. I am going to try this in order to run a specific older program called SpeedPlus.

[RichieP]

Some really great posts in here. Chris I keep reading and re-reading yours man


Jeff,
First I make sure the family here is ok. If they are I come upstairs, put on a pair of headphones and put on a cd containing meditative music. I keep the volume low.

I open the race and scroll through the horses 1 or 2 times kind of quickly. Getting a little "primer" as far as

1) Running styles ( Early -wire to wire and Other than early - all other horses)
2) Horse's "Power lines" (lines that make the horse FAST).

Once I have done that I find the horse that raced against the fastest pace in the LAST race. This is a "Hat technique". I look to see if the horse
1) fought for the lead for at least the 1st call
2) held either position or beaten lenghts( HERE is one of the few uses for beaten lenghts using the matchup) from the 1st c to 2nd c.

If the horse meets one of the above I HAVE to remember that horse as a major player who needs to:
1) have his BEST race on the pp's considered
2) after determining HOW the race will run does he "fit" that style. If he does and his power line makes him fast THAT is my horse without question.

This is a Jim Bradshaw spot play technique and when the horse from that fastest pace of race last line gets beaten horribly at the finish PRICE will be present on the horse. $63.80 is the highest I have seen so far.

If that last race does NOT present anyone special for consideration I find the horse (or horses) that is going to take the lead at the first call. If it is only ONE early and his power line has him FAST my look at the race is done. I throw everybody else out and he is my bet.

If there are more than one "earlies" I look to see if one of them is clearly superior at the 2c (assuming the 1c is similar). If one of them CAN put the other away comfortably and he is FAST then he becomes my bet and the race is over.

When the earlies in a race cancel each other out OR there is one early but he won't wire I:
1) take the 1st call of the early(s) and remember it
2) throw ALL the earlies out of the race NOW
3) using that 1st call match up the other than earlies. The bet is the FAST horse who is CLOSEST to the lead POSITIONALLY at the 1c and 2c.

Simple as that. NO going crazy over identifying running styles the way the "mainstream" does
1) early pressers
2) pressers
3) sustained pressers
4) sustained
5) late

That's my way Jeff

Richie

[Houndog]

Jeff, I don't have any rules for contender selection as I like to keep an open mind when I first start handicapping a race. As far as going back on a paceline I will do so if I think the horse warrants this consideration.

Also even though I may not use a horse's last paceline I ALWAYS consider it in the context of today's match-up. I want to know why the horse ran good or ran poorly. Was the horse loose on the lead and won easily, or challenged every step of the way? Why did the horse run poorly last out? Wrong distance? Wrong Surface? First race off of an extended lay-off? I am not so forgiving of a bad performance in a horses last race if it had no apparent excuses such as the examples stated above.

I am in agreement with you on very cheap claiming races as the most consistent thing with these horses are their inconsistency. I will go so far to say that if they win their last race I tend to hold that fact against them. A better approach is to keep track of repeat winners in these cheap races.

Jeff, every time I have tried to make rules on how I pick contenders I have missed winners. You can be consistent in your handicapping approach without having to rely heavily on rules which may not apply to the race you are trying to handicap.

I think what separates the Sartin Methodology from more conventional handicapping is that it is not based on rules, but looking at a race in an unconventional and non-linear way. Hope some of these comments helps, and I hope others will post on this topic.

[shoeless]

Hey everyone really great posts by everyone and has helped me tremendously.I hope we can do this with more topics in the future.I will try not to be so abrupt next time,it might turn some people off.Jeff

[Houndog]

Hey everyone really great posts by everyone and has helped me tremendously.I hope we can do this with more topics in the future.I will try not to be so abrupt next time,it might turn some people off.Jeff

Jeff, I didn't think your post to be abrupt. Anyhow by now you probably have checked Doc Sartin's review of Jim Bradshaw's Match-Up 2 book. I think in just a few paragraphs Doc explains why the Match-Up is so unique in the handicapping arena.

[Bob Cochran]

Hi Jeff.
I start my handicapping process by using the top 7 PODDS horses on the
Workhorse Pro conteder screen. After scratches, I will only consider horses who have been "freshened" or "layed-off" .

You can use these horses in any program you desire with good results.
After I select who I think will probably finish in the money, i require at least
5-1 odds or I'm not interested. I usually cherry-pick 3 to 4 tracks.
I pass a lot of races due to low odds.

If i can narrow a race down to 4 or less horses, and the odds are there (value), I don't think twice about a box wager. I don't care who wins, i want to cash out on the race.

hope this contributes .
BobC