Spot Play # 4 - Marathon Distance Races at 10f and Longer

[RichieP]

I now have added a 4th SPOT PLAY to my Matchup arsenal.

This is something Jim taught and showed me MONTHS ago and it is FREAKY man! I am dead serious.

Look there are many ways to win at the races ok? Racing is a big umbrella in that regard.

Having said that when he showed me this I almost fell off the chair. I remember saying over and over "Are you serious? Where and HOW the hell did you ever think to do THESE races like this Jimi?"

He would just laugh,tell me to "hush up Rich" and make me do races in the manner I am gonna lay out.

I KNOW it's time to lay it out because when my CONFIDENCE in something taught is so great that I call the teacher and show races before they run and the horses WIN consistently that SPOT PLAY has "arrived" ok?

THAT is what has been happening this week at tracks from East Coast to the West Coast.

I am gonna gather and show TWO races run in the last 3 days. Full pp's and then layout of Jim's EXACT process.

One winner will pay $17.00 and the other will be $4.80. As you will see they really are the SAME HORSE just with a different name ;)

I'll start tomorrow posting up.

Once again please keep an OPEN MIND on what you are about to see. It's REAL man.

This is a TRUE Spot Play in every sense of the word.

Thanx Hat for letting me share with others what you have shared with me.

In Cherokee language - WAYA!
Richie

[emilio840]

HI Richie. You must be a mind reader. I just sat down at my computer and I was going to ask you or Jim how to play those lone distance races. And in front of me I see that you are going to show us 4th spot play and it's at 10f and up.

emilio

[RichieP]

I need help.

GP - 2/25/07 - Race 5 - 12f Turf

Does anyone have the RAW pp's for race FIVE? If you do could you take screenshots of the horse's pp's and post them here.

Then I can lay out Jim's method of working the race and identifying the winner.

For some reason when I am taking pictures of the pp's using RDSS it is capturing the screenhunter too and blocking out the pp's for us to see.

I need help

Richie

[dugoutgold]

Hey Rich, dunno if this will help but I can get the bris Hat file for this card.

[JimG]

I can post bris pp's for that race. Is that okay Richie?

[dugoutgold]

hi rich, if you want i have the bris hat files here, they sahow of course as you know all the pps, if you want to try the screencaputure out on it Id be more than happy to send it your way:)

[JimG]

first post

[JimG]

2 of 6 screens

[JimG]

3 of 6 screens

[JimG]

4 of six screens

[JimG]

5 of 6 screens

[JimG]

6 of 6 screens

[Bill Lyster]

horse #1

[RichieP]

I can post bris pp's for that race. Is that okay Richie?

EXCELLENT!
Thank you Jim and also Bill Lyster and Dougoutgold who came through in the clutch!

I will wait for the posts to show up later on then we will use Jim's pp's.

Super!

Richie:)

[Bill Lyster]

Excel file with screen shots

[Bill Lyster]

horse 1

[Bill Lyster]

horse 2

[Bill Lyster]

horse 3

[Bill Lyster]

horse 4

[Bill Lyster]

horse 5

[Bill Lyster]

horse 6

[Bill Lyster]

horse 7

[Bill Lyster]

horse 8

[Bill Lyster]

horse 9

[RichieP]

For this Spot Play we have FOUR keys to work with.

1) We are going to work TODAY'S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today's virtual distance.

Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please.

2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1.

3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp's which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE.

4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and Matchup the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f.

THAT is the horse we will bet.

** Important**
I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed.

I am gonna wait a day or 2 to show who the winner is of the race Jim G posted the pp's for in case you want to work the race.

Take your time. Equalize some pacelines. Go SLOW and find the FAST horse at the mile who ALSO is closest POSITIONALLY to the lead during the race.

THIS is Jim Bradshaw's method of working marathon distance races.

Richie

[RichieP]

Here is the result of the race.

[RichieP]

Here are the pp's for the next race. this one from Santa Anita at 10f on the turf.

thanx to Bill for helping me figure out this new screenhunter I got here!

horse 1

[RichieP]

horse 2

[RichieP]

horse 3

[RichieP]

horse 4

[RichieP]

horse 5

[RichieP]

horse 6

[RichieP]

horse 7

[RichieP]

horse 8

[RichieP]

they say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well LOOK at this picture

[RichieP]

here is the result of the race

[RichieP]

Jim's thinking in these long races is that to WIN a horse has to have taken control of the race at the mile mark.

He feels there has been most of the energy exerted by the field at that stage and for someone to overcome a bunch of horses AFTER the mile mark is just too difficult to do with the horses energy having been depleted by that stage.

So he started stopping and picking the winner at the 8f point of the races. It's amazing in it's basic SIMPLICITY and POWER in my opinion.

This is Jim Bradshaw's method of working marathon distance races.

"Waya"

[Bill Lyster]

Richie and Jim:
I read the first of these posts yesterday. today on the local racing program the SoCal announcer came out with these stats.

The last 31 Big Caps - 1-1/4 mil - were won by horses that were first or second at the stretch call (i.e. the mile).

41 out of the last 44 Kentucky Derbys (these nos. may be slightly off, it took awhile to put the info into reference) were won by horses that were first or second at the mile call, with Grindstone 4th and Giamcomo 6th - forgot the 3rd non conformer.

In light of subject matter of this post, I thought this was an amazing sets of stats, seemingly perfectly conforming to THE HAT's observations.

Nice!

[VoodooFan]

I'm starting to think the new MatchUp Guy is getting more than he bargained for. RichieP thought he was getting a chance to be molded to a better handicapper. I think he is starting to realize that he signed up to become a SORCERERS apprentice.:D VoodooFan

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

re: use of mile times.

In RDSS we can see the mile call in all races at or over 9f. So, do we use the mile time directly from this race and note the positioning for this call or do we back off 6.2 seconds per furlong from the final time, while still using the position info?

In yesterday's Big Cap, Boboman was coming off a 10f turf race and the answer you'd get would vary depending on which of the two options used. I think Bobo ran much faster than 6.2 seconds for the final quarter mile from a slow, about 1:37.4 mile split on the turf. But if you backed off 6.2 x 4 or 25-3/5ths from the final time 2:01.5, it put him in the mix [201.5-25.6=135.9] (he finished 3rd to the best mile time of Lava Man.)

Similarly, 12F races in RDSS show a mile and a quarter split. Do you start with the 12f final time and deduct back to a mile or use the 1.25 mile split and start the adjustment process? Thanks for the clarification.

Bill

[20towin]

The Matchup as I am beginning to realize is an evolving Method , the more it is worked, the more it grows to meet different situations. I would bet that Mr. Bradshaw devolted years and years to come up with this approach.This method was not developed over night.

[RichieP]

Richie:

re: use of mile times.

In RDSS we can see the mile call in all races at or over 9f. So, do we use the mile time directly from this race .

Bill


YES.

[RichieP]

Richie:

re: use of mile times.

In RDSS we can see the mile call in all races at or over 9f. So, do we use the mile time directly from this race and note the positioning for this call or do we back off 6.2 seconds per furlong from the final time, while still using the position info?

In yesterday's Big Cap, Boboman was coming off a 10f turf race and the answer you'd get would vary depending on which of the two options used. Bill

Bill
Use the mile "backup" time as the reference point.
Richie

[Bill Lyster]

How I saw these competitors using the marathon spot play:

2 dyna L3 - 1:35.3, 5th 2 off
3 Arch L1 - 1:35.5, 4th, 1.6 off (8.5 f finish)
4 Optimi L4 - 1:35.9, 1st by 3 in a mile race
5 Possib L3 - 1:35.7, 1st by 2 (8.5f finish)
6 Isabel L5 - 1:35.6, 4th by 3
7 May N L1 - 1:35.3, 5th by 1.7
8 Rain S L 2 - 1:35.3, 6th by 7.1

When you said to analyze by pace of race did you mean the rest of the pace before the mile time or just the mile pace?

I see the 5 trying to lead by 2, but can't. The 4 tries to lead by 3 and can't, leaving the 3 closest positionally to a pace that is arguably not the fastest of the remaining horses. How is this properly handicapped?

Thanks,

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

The winner here is 5, Royal. The only two race choices are both 12f.

Backing off line 2, I get 1:37.5, 2nd by 3.5 lengths

The 2 at 1:35.5, 2nd by a head and the 7 at 1:35.4, 1st by 1 appear to have significant pace and positional advantages. How is this race handicapped correctly using this spot play?

Bill

[RichieP]

The winner here is 5, Royal. The only two race choices are both 12f.

Backing off line 2, I get 1:37.5, 2nd by 3.5 lengths

The 2 at 1:35.5, 2nd by a head and the 7 at 1:35.4, 1st by 1 appear to have significant pace and positional advantages. How is this race handicapped correctly using this spot play?

Bill

Bill

here is my screenshot on the 9th race as I worked it ok?

I absolutely LOVED the #1 horse and when he was 2/1 I bet him. He lost as the #5 won who in a million years I can not bet using this method.

Still 1 for 2 on the day here with a $17.00 winner works out ok.

Go back and check that 5th Bill. LOOK at pace of race on the 2md line back on the winning 3 horse Arch. Subtract 6.2 seconds in fifths or 6.4 in tenths from the final time and then look at the POSITIONING and pace of race for THAT line.

There is NOTHING that can even come close to touching that horse according to Jim's method.

Here is my workup for the 9th race that I lost on ok?

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

Just curious. Are there any limitations or preconditions to the marathon spot play? I'm assuming that a horse who had never gone farther than 8f might be suspect at 10f or more. A really quick one turn mile time might give too much credit to such a horse.

I'm not looking to complicate matters, just understand them in context a little better.

Bill