Val 3 "Live Race" Step by Step Dmr 8/1

[RichieP]

I am gonna do today's 7th Race from Dmr step by step. Then make my wagering decisions base on Ml and readouts.

First let me show the paceline screen showing choice of line ok? where there are speed ratings that are close I enter both and hit f6 which I will show.

Ok let's get to it! :)

Here is horse # 1 as you see after hitting f6 the lines remained tied so we will leave them both in

[RichieP]

Here is horse # 2 as you see f6 is choosing line 2 so I will remove line 1

[RichieP]

Horse # 3 is easy line choice

[RichieP]

Horse # 4 is no problem

[RichieP]

Horse # 5 is obvious

[RichieP]

Horse # 7 I entered 2 lines just to be sure and f6 says line 2 so I will remove line 3

[RichieP]

Ok here is the hot Ml fav ( 8/5) # 8 I do not like to use 10f lines so I will use the line 2 back with its 85 speed rating. Look at the "class" on him

You KNOW he is gonna be hammered at the windows. Let's see if he looks like a giant on the readouts later ;)

[RichieP]

Horse # 9 no problems here

[RichieP]

Horse # 10 the turf line is > 7.5 blf the sprints put him no where

no line

[RichieP]

Horse # 11 I entered 2 lines as you see and f6 chooses line 2 so line 2 it is I will remove line 1

[RichieP]

Ok we have finished picking lines so now here is the 3 screen that I hide from

we have 2 lines on # 1 as you see line 3 is better both "primary" AND "supp" so I will use that line

[RichieP]

ok Now here is the 3 screen . As you see I am gonna delete these three guys they are the WORST 3 in total energy, primary line score and supp line score

Good bye

[RichieP]

Ok now we have our top 5 primary line score and top 5 total energy horses

we will move on to the next screen as my hiding from THIS screen stops here ok?

[RichieP]

Here is the e/l graph of our contenders

[RichieP]

Here is the v/dc screen

[RichieP]

Finally the bl/bl screen the big "classy" # 8 is ranked 4th. Win or lose I can not bet this race fast enough.

My top ranked # 1 has a 6 and a half point edge on line score OBVIOUS first bet for ME.

Take a look at Tier 3 please I have the # 7 who is 15/1 ML

Tier 3 is MY bomb tier Do NOT know what is gonna happen BUT this race is PERFECT readout wise for ME.

1) The big fav is NO giant readout wise.
2) My top ranked guy is my low odds bet with STANDOUT readouts.
3) I have a BOMB in MY bomb tier which is THREE.


My win bets are the # 1 and # 7

Richie

[Phase III Lives]

much appreciated Richie ...

[Phase III Lives]

damn - i made my post after just reading your pace line selections .... the rest is awesome... No disrespect to anyone else, but this is the most helpful post I have seen.... Binder - as you know I don't use VAL - so until now I didn't realize that the Line scores that you had mentioned (over and again)were totalled for you... I had thought that through some model you were you all were using that a particular LS was better than another...I know now my questions must have seemed crazy.

I hope this bet works great for you and propels you in the contents.

Ok I do have one question - what is the LS/SUPP readouts ?

[RichieP]

damn - i made my post after just reading your pace line selections .... the rest is awesome... No disrespect to anyone else, but this is the most helpful post I have seen.... Binder - as you know I don't use VAL - so until now I didn't realize that the Line scores that you had mentioned (over and again)were totalled for you... I had thought that through some model you were you all were using that a particular LS was better than another...I know now my questions must have seemed crazy.

I hope this bet works great for you and propels you in the contents.

Ok I do have one question - what is the LS/SUPP readouts ?


Hi Jeff
Ok glad this is helping man. I am attaching a screen shot again of the bl/bl screen where you can see the "prim" and "supp" factors

Your questions:

1) The "LS" or line score readout is the Primary factors of the program totalled with LOW being best.
EPR
LPR
CPR- Very similar to SP readouts on older programs ok?
TT
HE- Hidden energy- 2nd and 3rd fractions
FW
FX


2) "Supp" are these supplementary readouts

SPN- Sartin pace #
FX- also in "primary"
ENT- Deceleration rank - different formula used in Spec
TS- True Speed
TPP- Total Pace Potential

The GUIDELINES for hiding from the body of the race are to hide ONE at a time from the highest rankings of "PRIMARY LS" AND " TOTAL ENERGY".

You have to work races to get a feel for this Jeff and no one is perfect

I hope this helps

Now If I could figure out how to set up a modeling spreadsheet in Excel I would be thrilled I just found I can NOT print this modeling tool from another program and I don't really know how to use Excel.

One of the biggest things MISSING from the Validator and Speculator series of programs is the ABSENCE of in program modeling

I really have NO clue why the modeling features of synthesis were dropped.

Richie

[Phase III Lives]

You are right about doing the races - then it will all come together ... but I wanted to follow and learn from you other readouts... Your definitions are extremely helpful ... I feel hurt that SP was changed.... that is one of my primary readouts...

Ok - I have my own Profile maker - which I cannot let you have ... (I will tell you privately why) But I can take what I have and make an excel spreadsheet out of it that will help you model (or anyone else) certain readouts.

Give me some guidelines:

Here's what I suggest and can do...

Have a separate sheet for each TRK/DIST/Surface (if you prefer you can separate classes - just let me know).

I can give you an overall average or median of a particular factor.
average : if you have 1,1,1,4,5 = 12/5 = 2.4
median : midpoint of a group of numbers. 1,1,1,4,5 = 1
or both if you like

I can also have a column next to each factor that gives you a median or average of last 3,5,7,9 races - whatever you tell me. [This in addition to a row at the bottom that gives you an overall average/median - mentioned above]

You can also instead of ranking, you could use difference from the best which I prefer, but takes longer (a little). Median or average.

btw - I like median since a stray 5 or 2 stray 5's dont affect a median as much as in the average.

you can also have an odds column where you can see where your higher odds horses fall.

We can work this in stages if you like. And it won't hurt my feelings if you'd rather not use it, although I will try to make it as user friendly as I can.

Jeff

[RichieP]

[QUOTE=Phase III Lives]You are right about doing the races - then it will all come together ... but I wanted to follow and learn from you other readouts... Your definitions are extremely helpful


Jeff I will be glad to continue to post races and show my methods of contenders, pacelines,hiding etc. I LIKE that someone is taking something good from what I am posting. Binder is exactly the same way.

I will CONTINUE to post races like above for you if it's ok! Then you can see some screw ups of mine too! lol

Biggest problem with a lot of stuff I read ( not here) is that to me it seems like no one EVER loses a race man. After the race we all are the best! know what I mean

My records show that betting 2 horses to win on 20 race cycles that I get 8 winners. That means I get 12 LOSERS. That is 40% betting 2 horses

I read about 60-70% people get and I am NOT close to that. NEVER HAVE BEEN either. I make a profit because my avg win$ is good.

See that race I posted. These are the winning looks for me readout wise ok? There is another I will show you on a live race when it comes up. There are DEFINITE patterns to what I see WHEN I am going good.

Jeff btw there is one BIG thing about use of the software that Doc advises ok:

HIDING horses from readouts because odds are too low to bet on OR for some other reason you have while selecting pacelines or whatever

THis is BIG I will elaborate more later if it's ok

Richie

[Binder]

Thanks Rich
What a great help your post will provide
Hope you win the race! What you did in the last few
post is so helpful

Can't wait to see how it turns out

Good Skill
Binder

[Phase III Lives]

yes - I did see Binder's examples of hiding the low odds horses... As long as you have the energy please do post this way - it's incredibly informative for me as I am starting out. I will be testing SPECPA soon when my project at work is done ...

later.

[RichieP]

The big fav # 8 wins the race easily at 4/5. The # 1 runs second

I lose this one

here is the bl/bl screen again of the race.

The winner was # 1 tot energy, early fractal,epr, and true speed
# 2 in late fractal, cpr, and total pace potential



Richie