O.T.E. race from the Hat

[RichieP]

Jim showed me this race he hit Sunday at Fair Grounds.

He has been working on "Other than early" races with me a bit so I want to pass it along here.

This race WINNER also HAS another "key point" that has been discussed in the Hat check.

This is the 5th race on the card and produces a nice $15.20 winner.

I am gonna post up the result last so if you do NOT want to see it til you work the race stop at horse 10 ok?

Horse 1

[RichieP]

horse 2

[RichieP]

horse 3

[RichieP]

horse 4

[RichieP]

horse 5

[RichieP]

horse 6

[RichieP]

horse 7

[RichieP]

horse 8

[RichieP]

horse 9

[RichieP]

horse 10 that completes the field.

STOP HERE if you do not want to see the winner yet. He will be shown in the next post.

[RichieP]

The Result Chart of the race.

Jim's comments to follow :)

[THE HAT]

Other Than Early

The second race at Fair Grounds is a race I won. I decided the race was a good race to have Rich work. I have taught Rich that there are only two running styles. These style are Early, and other than Early, which makes it rather easy to determine how the race will "set up." The first step is
to decide the horse that will take the lead in the first quarter mile. The nine horse Smile Away can win only if he can go "wire to wire", and will have the lead in today’s race at 21.4. Now, can he go wire to wire today? The answer is no, because the one horse Tricky Devil has also run a 21.4 and also needs to go "wire to wire." So the race will run, other than early.

Now, which horse is closer to today’s pace? The two horse Secure Line has won from the second position in a 21.3, from the fifth position and from the third position. Secure Line is a great selection to win in a race that will run other than early.

This is the procedure Rich used to match the race. Great job "Match Up Guy."

[RichieP]

Richie,Since it's your race I would like to see you post your thoughts as well.Jeff

Hi Jeff

1) I ALWAYS scroll the horses and locate the fastest pace from last race. Here that belongs to the 2 and 5.

POSITIONALLY the #2 is much closer and shows in his pp's he can win from the following positions at the FIRST call

2nd
3rd - twice
5th
ok IF this race goes "Other than early" THIS is my horse.

2) Now I look for the early pacesetter.

I see the #1 is early at 1st call and shows on the lead times
21.4 - needs OPEN lead
22.0 - needs OPEN lead
21.4 - needs OPEN lead
in none of those races did he FIGHT and win. He needs an OPEN lead to win.

I scroll and get to the #9 and see he is also early at the first call. I see
21.4 - gets beat but has OPEN lead
22.0 - wins but has OPEN lead
21.1 - abberant race

Now I LOOKED and saw they cancel one another out so now I shift my focus to the winner being "other than early" and from the work I FIRST did when opening the race described above the horse to BET assuming odds are ok is staring me right in the puss.

They don't all work out this way BUT they do enough times to show a REPEATING pattern we can have a bit of confidence in.

I can NOT be afraid to lose a race betting only one horse Jeff. Otherwise NONE of this works. As long as I bet races where the BET is so CLEAR that even when the horse loses I KNOW I made the right bet.

Hope this answered your questions Jeff
Richie