Wagercapping made my day [Archive] - Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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froggy

03-29-2007, 04:10 PM

Aqu0329 race 7

SPEC160

5 horses in the prgm and all had a bal of 6
top horse # 4 @ 1/5
2nd horse # 6 @ 6/1
3rd hoese # 1 @ 21/

Bet 60% on # 6
Bet 40% on # 1 across the board.

$45.20 $14.80 $18.60

Why didn't I put it all on the win?

If I could kiss SPEC160 I would.

Froggy

RichieP

03-29-2007, 04:26 PM

froggy

03-29-2007, 04:31 PM

WOW

Did it again in the 8th race.
the top 3 horses were all 2/1 or under so I put two small wagers on the 4th and 5th ranked horses.

#5 paid $44.80 to win

Some day I'm going to cash out of youbet and have a party.

Froggy

JimG

03-29-2007, 04:36 PM

Terrific hit froggy! Gotta love it when the longshots are coming in and you have them on your readouts.

Since I am not an old time Sartinite, did the methodology discuss situations like the second you presented, where say tier 1 and tier 2 are favorites and tiers 3 and 4 are long shots, when do you play the long shots, when do you play the favorites, and when do you pass? If someone could point me to a tape or follow-up that discusses this in depth, that would be great.

Jim

froggy

03-29-2007, 04:37 PM

the #5 choice was the #6 at the track.

Please excuse me as I am a little excited.

Froggy

froggy

03-29-2007, 06:07 PM

Jim,

I am an old type Sartinite.
I started with Phase III and it worked.
I have been away from racing for several years and am just back at it for about 2 months, since I got SPEC160.
I only have FOLLOW UPs #70 & #88 left and they are getting dog eared.
So here goes on page 4 of #70 Doc explains what he does in his sort of confusing way.
I used to be focused on the top two in the BL/BL. I struggled but survived doing it that way.
I have gotten away from that now that I have records several hundred races to look back on and know where my winners are.
I try to concentrate on the top 3 or 4 horses and hide or ignore those that are less than 2/1.
When the BL/BL says that a horse should be 3/1 and the morning line is 5/1 but his actual odds are 7/2 I try to look elswhere.
When the favorites win I normally wouldn't have them.
They loose 2/3rds of the time and when that happens I will have the winner better than half of the time.
But when the favorites are coming home I get DEPRESSED.
Today at Aqu. was a good example.
I lost the first five in a row.
It didn't seem like it was my day.
Then I hit the 6th, 7th and 8th ( $10.00, 45.20, 44.80).
By then I was too exited to even do the 9th.
You are not trying to pick the winner but bet those that have a good shot at being there relative to the odds line from BL/BL.
I put five horses in where possible
I have the winner in the top 4 about 75% of the time.
Of that 75%
#1 horse wins about 40% of the time usually at a low mutual.
#2 and #3 win about 35% with a much better mutual.
#4 wins about 25%.
#5 seldom wins.
These are my records of my way that I do the races.
I hope this explains a little about what wagercapping is about and how I do it.

Froggy

JimG

03-29-2007, 06:34 PM

Hi Froggy,

Thanks for taking the time and sharing. I appreciate it. That is not unlike how I have approached my contenders for many years. I have done well, but I certainly have my ups and downs. The downs are largely attributable to when the first and second public betting choices win at a higher rate than normal.

I have found my better success comes on the turf and in maiden claimers. Seems at the tracks I play the favorite wins less in these type of races. I was wondering if Sartin or any of his followers arrived at similar conclusions based on the type of race or some other factor (like soft favorite 5/2 or more), etc.

Again thanks for taking the time to share your experience.

Jim

tompkins

03-29-2007, 07:52 PM

right there third.
th race - Aqueduct - March 29, 2007
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Karakorum Thunder 45.20 14.80 18.60
8 Bird of Play 10.40 16.00
3 Thunder Minister 22.20